National Academies Press: OpenBook

Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports (2019)

Chapter: Appendix I - Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports

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Page 132
Suggested Citation:"Appendix I - Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25497.
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Page 132
Page 133
Suggested Citation:"Appendix I - Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25497.
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Page 133
Page 134
Suggested Citation:"Appendix I - Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25497.
×
Page 134
Page 135
Suggested Citation:"Appendix I - Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25497.
×
Page 135
Page 136
Suggested Citation:"Appendix I - Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25497.
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Page 136

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132 ACRP Synthesis 33: Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience (Baglin 2012) provides a series of airport case examples to illustrate increases in risk due to a variety of different climate events. The following table, which is reprinted from that report, provides a compact summary of climate changes, affected airport assets, airport impacts, and potential responses. A P P E N D I X I Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports Climate Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Airport Asset or Activity Primary Impact Effect of Impact Illustrative Responses Operations and Interruptions Infrastructure Temperature Change More hot days Take-off Hotter days, when combined with moisture, can reduce airplane performance, increasing the runway length needed for take-off and climbing ability, particularly at high altitudes and/or hot weather airports (Peterson et al. 2008; Love et al. 2010; Shein 2008) Delays and cancellations due to need to limit daytime flights (Peterson et al. 2008; TRB 2008; Shein 2008) Limits on payload (TRB 2008; Shein 2008) Use of greater thrust, leading to more noise (Burbidge et al. 2011), increased fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Reduced ability of certain airports to take certain aircraft (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Alternate or new routes or schedules (Shein 2008) Improved engine design (CCSP 2008) Longer runways (Schwartz 2011; Klin et al. 2011; Stewart et al. 2011) Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports

Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports 133 Climate Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Airport Asset or Activity Primary Impact Effect of Impact Illustrative Responses Operations and Interruptions Infrastructure Temperature Change More hot days Utility systems (energy, water, fuel, etc.) Increase in temperature will increase demand in energy; e.g., for air conditioning and for water needed to cool air conditioning systems (in the terminal, airplanes, etc.) (TRB 2008) (Stewart et al. 2011) Reduced lifespan of air conditioning equipment due to increased use (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Increased utility consumption and attendant costs (Stewart et al. 2011) Possible impacts of fuel ignition on emergency services and safety (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Increased risk to IT failure stemming from increased risk of power failure from pressure on the system (Stewart et al. 2011) Modification to infrastructure (Cranfield 2011) by, for example, ensuring availability of Fixed Electrical Ground Power on aircraft stands for air conditioning (Gatwick Airport Limited 2011) Research possible impacts on emergency services and safety (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Heat illness (Peterson et al. 2008; Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Temperature Change More hot days Human resources Limitation on outdoor maintenance and services (Peterson et al. 2008) Increase health issue, especially for vulnerable groups (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) More nighttime construction (Schwartz 2011) Infrastructure capability assessment of heating and cooling needs (Birmingham Airport 2011) Temperature Change More hot days Air Increased heat causes increased levels of ozone, and other air quality issues (EPA 2009; Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Regulatory compliance issues (Klin et al. 2011) Conduct monitoring of conditions (TRB Special Report 299 2009) Flashpoint of aviation fuel exceeded on hot days (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Temperature Change More hot days Airfield, access roads, vehicles Pavement buckling (e.g., concrete expansion while remaining rigid) (Peterson et al. 2008) Loss of non-concrete pavement integrity (e.g., tarmac melt) (TRB 2008) Heat-related weathering of fleet, including tires (TRB 2008) Decreased utility of pavement (Peterson et al. 2008) Increase in foreign object damage on airfield; e.g., from weathered tires (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Pavement damage Load restrictions for certain pavement (CCSP 2008; Peterson et al. 2008) At 40–100 years in the future, better maintenance strategies (Meyer 2008) Replace road and bridge expansion joints (Schwartz 2011) At 40–100 years in the future, possible significant impact on pavement and structural design; need for new materials; better maintenance strategies (Meyer 2008) Research new materials (Schwartz 2011) (continued on next page)

134 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Climate Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Airport Asset or Activity Primary Impact Effect of Impact Illustrative Responses Operations and Interruptions Infrastructure Temperature Change Fewer cold days All More mix in precipitation, with shift from snow to ice (Peterson et al. 2008) Changes in snow and ice removal costs and environmental impacts from salt and chemicals (TRB 2008) Possible reduction in de-icing facilities (TRB 2008) Temperature Change More hot days Fewer cold days Increase in extreme temperature days (greater amplitude, hot or cold) Airport operations Under increased warming and/or in combination with other climate change impacts (e.g., inundation), and increase in human migration away from areas severely affected by climate change Operational issues associated with large, migrating, human populations, including increase in passenger traffic, public health concerns, and other issues (Stewart et al. 2011) Incorporate the potential of climate change events into the existing systems of planning for irregular operations (Stewart et al. 2011) Change in wildlife populations may call for changes in landscaping, maintenance practices (Klin et al. 2011) borne and contagious Changes in vector diseases increase likelihood of epidemics and pandemics (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Drought and increased or decreased water availability and/or earlier springs, later in falls may change ecosystems and wildlife, including migration (Stewart et al. 2011). increases in migrating wildlife or ecosystem shifts, including increases in invasive species and endangered species at airports (Klin et al. 2011; Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011), including more bird strikes and associated costs of prevention (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) and changing health and safety issues for staff (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Issues associated with Temperature Change More hot days Airfield, airstrips, access roads Decrease in sea ice, making Arctic shoreline vulnerable to erosion (GAO 2003) Erosion or subsidence of coastal airstrips and access roads in the Arctic (GAO 2003) Dikes or levees to protect vulnerable coastal communities (Schwartz 2011) Move at-risk communities (Schwartz 2011) Temperature Change Fewer cold days Airfields, airstrips, access roads Permafrost thaw (Peterson et al. 2008) Subsidence and other disruption to foundations (TRB 2008) Identify areas with accelerated permafrost thaw (Schwartz 2011) Reinforcement or relocation (GAO 2003) Design changes in colder regions (Meyer 2008) Temperature Change Fewer cold days Airfield, access road, all surfaces Decrease in frozen precipitation (Peterson et al. 2008) Improved safety (Peterson 2008 et al.; TRB 2008) Increase in air routes in northern regions (Love et al. 2010)

Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports 135 Climate Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Airport Asset or Activity Primary Impact Effect of Impact Illustrative Responses Operations and Interruptions Infrastructure Precipitation Changes Increase in heavy precipitation events Airfield, roads, bridges, stormwater drainage system Flooding, standing water (Peterson et al. 2008; Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Flight delays; passenger and employee access issues; implications for emergency evacuation planning, facility maintenance; and safety management (TRB 2008) Increase in surface water leads to potential contamination of surface water from de-icing fluids (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Road submersion; (Peterson et al. 2008) Scouring around bridges, roads, buried pipelines (Peterson et al. 2008) Damage to runway or other infrastructure (TRB 2008) Protect existing and vulnerable structures; e.g., bridge piers (Schwartz 2011) Update hydrological storm frequency curves (Schwartz 2011) Over next 30–40 years, more targeted maintenance (Meyer 2008) Better land use planning in flood plains (Schwartz 2011) Over next 30–40 years, effect on pavement and drainage design. (Meyer 2008) Damage to pavement drainage systems (TRB 2008) Flood damage to aircraft navigation systems and instrument landing systems (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) More probabilistic approaches to design floods (Meyer 2008). At 40–100 years in the future, impact on designs for foundations, drainage systems and culverts; effect on design of materials and pavement subgrade (Meyer 2008) Temperature Change More hot days Fewer cold days Increase in extreme temperature days (greater amplitude, hot or cold) Changes in season duration Entire facility and its operations Systemic changes in demand and delays such as increases in hotter days and fewer cold days, changes tourism destinations (Burbidge et al. 2011) Delays and other knock-on effects of systemic changes and increased irregular operations (Stewart et al. 2011) Decrease in capacity demands in some locations, increases in others due to tourism shifts (Burbidge et al. 2011) Incorporate the potential of climate change events into the existing systems of planning for irregular operations (Stewart et al. 2011) Seasonal Change Temperature swings above and below freezing Changes to freeze- thaw cycle of road subsurface: earlier in spring, later in fall (Peterson et al. 2008) Early appearance of ground heaves with earlier arrival of spring (Peterson et al. 2008) Damage to under- ground utilities leading to pollution and compliance issues (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Damage to roads (Peterson et al. 2008) Fracture risk to underground utilities (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) New management regime in weight limitations for certain pavement types (Peterson et al. 2008) Where there are shorter winters but longer thaw seasons, the timeframe for load restrictions may have to expand (Peterson et al. 2008) Shorter season for using ice roads in northern climates (Peterson et al. 2008) (continued on next page)

136 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Climate Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Airport Asset or Activity Primary Impact Effect of Impact Illustrative Responses Operations and Interruptions Infrastructure Sea Level Rise Rising water levels in coastal areas and rivers (Meyer 2011) All or part of airport In combination with incremental warming (NRC 2011), causing glacial melt coastal erosion and threat of inundation Closures of airports, including major ones, on coasts (TRB 2008) Damage to airports not designed or sited taking into consideration sea level rise Protect infrastructure with dikes and levees (Schwartz 2011) Elevate critical infrastructure (Schwartz 2011) Repairs, replacement, and re-design (Peterson et al. 2008; Stewart et al. 2011) Precipitation Changes Increase in heavy precipitation events Operations Fog Delays due to reduced visibility (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) often at 7:00 a.m. slowing down flight operations (Peterson et al. 2008) Shift to instrument flight rules from visual flight rules (Klin et al. 2011) Changes in aircraft separation (Klin et al. 2011) Precipitation Changes Increase in heavy precipitation events Increase in convective weather Generally, increase in delays due to re- routing to avoid convective weather (thunderstorm) (McCarthy and Budd 2010) and changes in flight levels to avoid turbulence or convective weather (McCarthy and Budd 2010) Destruction or disabling of navigation aid instruments (TRB 2008) Consider review of airspace management and related systems (Burbidge et al. 2011) Precipitation Changes Drought All In combination with increased heat, wild fires (TRB 2008; Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Possibility of water restrictions (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Less visibility (Peterson et al. 2008; TRB 2008), slowing down flight operations (Peterson et al. 2008) Smoke effects on aircraft engines (Stewart et al. 2011) Incorporate the potential of climate change events into the existing systems of planning for irregular operations (Stewart et al. 2011) Restrictions on airside maintenance (Evaluating the Risk Assessment . . . 2011) Source: ACRP Synthesis 33: Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience (Baglin 2012), Table 1.

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Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Get This Book
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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Research Report 199: Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports provides information on how to apply benefit–cost analysis tools and techniques to improve decision making affecting resilience of airport infrastructure projects in response to potential long-term impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.

The handbook is designed to improve the process by which infrastructure investment strategies are evaluated, with an emphasis on ensuring climate-related resiliency.

Procedures for presenting assumptions and results transparently and for implementing the process are also included so that industry users and decision makers can understand and communicate the outcome of the analytical process.

Based on data availability, the analytical methods included in the handbook focus on two specific areas of climate change likely to affect airports (although these methods can, in principle, be used more widely): (1) the potential for extreme flooding events resulting from storm surge and sea level rise near coastal airports, and (2) the potential for rising temperatures that require weight restrictions on aircraft takeoffs (or possibly full flight delays) at airports with shorter runways in warm climates or at high elevations.

The results available from application of the suggested methodologies do not necessarily make the decision of whether to invest in a mitigation project to combat climate change any easier but, rather, provide a full range of potential outcomes and possibilities for airport planners and managers to consider. Using this methodology, airport decision makers can then determine how much risk from uncertain climate change and extreme weather events they are willing or able to accommodate. Implementation of the methods presented in the handbook can be used to obtain essential quantifiable estimates of those risks, which is of particular value to airport financial professionals.

The handbook is accompanied by a set of Microsoft Excel models to support the decision-making process (one for extreme water rise causing potential flooding events, and the other for high temperatures that may affect weight restrictions on aircraft takeoffs), a video tutorial, a report summary document, and an executive briefing to help decision makers understand the process.

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