Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports (2019)

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A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 199 2019 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation • Economics • Environment Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports GRA, Inc. Jenkintown, PA LMI GoveRnMent consuLtInG Tysons, VA RFMARchI AvIAtIon consuLtInG Washington, D.C. AecoM Glen Allen, VA chPLAnnInG Philadelphia, PA

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and interna- tional commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agen- cies and not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. ACRP is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). ACRP undertakes research and other technical activi- ties in various airport subject areas, including design, construction, legal, maintenance, operations, safety, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100— Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Associa- tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academy of Sciences formally initiating the program. ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organi- zations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibili- ties, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended users of the research: airport operating agencies, service pro- viders, and academic institutions. ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties; industry associations may arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, webinars, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport industry practitioners. ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 199 Project 02-78 ISSN 2572-3731 (Print) ISSN 2572-374X (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-48045-1 Library of Congress Control Number 2019942236 © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published research reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 199 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Marci A. Greenberger, Manager, Airport Cooperative Research Program Lawrence D. Goldstein, Senior Program Officer Anthony P. Avery, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Doug English, Senior Editor ACRP PROJECT 02-78 PANEL Field of Environment Mary E. Davis, Tufts University, Medford, MA (Chair) Joshua DeFlorio, The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, New York, NY Sam A. Mehta, Gresham, Smith and Partners, Fremont, CA Stephanie A. Morgan, Lewiston-Nez Perce County Regional Airport (LWS), Lewiston, ID Kristoffer Russell, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Prosper, TX Jen Wolchansky, Mead & Hunt, Inc., Denver, CO Thomas Cuddy, FAA Liaison Kevin Partowazam, FAA Liaison Melinda Z. Pagliarello, Airports Council International–North America Liaison

ACRP Research Report 199 is a handbook on how to apply benefit–cost analysis tools and techniques to improve decision making affecting resilience of airport infrastructure projects in response to potential long-term impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. This handbook will help practitioners recognize, enhance, and adapt insights and proce- dures identified from related research currently available or under development affecting both airports and other infrastructure projects. In particular, the handbook is designed to improve the process by which infrastructure investment strategies are evaluated, with an emphasis on ensuring climate-related resil- iency. Procedures for presenting assumptions and results transparently and for implement- ing the process are also included so that industry users and decision makers can understand and communicate the outcome of the analytical process. The handbook was developed by a research team led by GRA, Inc., with assistance from RFMarchi Aviation Consulting, LMI Government Consulting, AECOM, and CHPlan- ning. The methodology presented, which is broadly applicable to any uncertain financial or economic decision being considered by an airport, uses a two-step analytical approach. Step 1 applies a screening analysis using an already-existing ACRP software tool; depend- ing on the outcome of Step 1, Step 2 evaluates risk more systematically and considers potential ways to reduce that risk through specific investments (or operational changes). Step 2 uses forecasts of future climate change that are inherently uncertain and imple- ments a Monte Carlo simulation–based benefit–cost method focusing on identification and analysis of a specific mitigation project designed to reduce or eliminate the potential damages caused by climate change. Based on data availability, the analytical methods included in the handbook focus on two specific areas of climate change likely to affect airports (although these methods can, in principle, be used more widely): (1) the potential for extreme flooding events result- ing from storm surge and sea level rise near coastal airports, and (2) the potential for rising temperatures that require weight restrictions on aircraft takeoffs (or possibly full flight delays) at airports with shorter runways in warm climates or at high elevations. The results available from application of the suggested methodologies do not necessarily make the decision of whether to invest in a mitigation project to combat climate change any easier but, rather, provide a full range of potential outcomes and possibilities for airport planners and managers to consider. Using this methodology, airport decision makers can then determine how much risk from uncertain climate change and extreme weather events they are willing or able to accommodate. Implementation of the methods By Lawrence D. Goldstein Staff Officer Transportation Research Board F O R E W O R D

presented in the handbook can be used to obtain essential quantifiable estimates of those risks, which is of particular value to airport financial professionals. The handbook is accompanied by a set of Microsoft Excel models to support the decision-making process, a video tutorial, a separate summary document, and an executive briefing to help decision makers understand the process. These separate and supporting products are available on the TRB website by searching for “ACRP Research Report 199” at www.TRB.org.

1 Summary 1 S.1 Suggested Two-Step Analytical Process 3 S.2 Applying the Process 3 S.3 Summarizing Outcomes from the Analysis 6 S.4 Related Topics 7 Chapter 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Objectives 7 1.2 Handbook Overview 9 1.3 Why and How Airports Should Assess Climate Change 12 Chapter 2 Evaluation Methods Under Risk and Uncertainty 13 2.1 Benefit–Cost Analysis and Financial Feasibility Analysis 13 2.2 Using Existing ACRP Resources 14 2.3 Adding Climate Risk to an Analysis 16 2.4 Step 1: Initial Screening Analysis for Assessing Climate Risk 22 2.5 Step 2: Risk-Adjusted Analysis for Assessing Climate Risk 28 2.6 Summary and Next Steps 29 Chapter 3 State-of-the-Art Climate Measures 29 3.1 Background on Available Climate Data 31 3.2 Climate Stressors 34 Chapter 4 Potential Airport Impacts 34 4.1 Identifying and Targeting Airport Assets and Infrastructure 36 4.2 Assessing Vulnerability Due to Climate Change Risks 36 4.3 Assessing Criticality 40 Chapter 5 Responses and Adaptations 40 5.1 Identifying and Targeting Potential Responses 42 5.2 Considering Adaptations Not Involving Infrastructure Investment 43 5.3 Financial Constraints 47 Chapter 6 Other Relevant Topics for Airports Addressing Climate Change 47 6.1 Defining a Specific Scenario 48 6.2 What Type of Analysis? 50 6.3 Hard-to-Quantify Impacts and Direct Environmental Strategies 51 6.4 Economic Impacts 53 6.5 Option to Delay Investment 53 6.6 Comparing Results Across Different Scenarios C O N T E N T S

55 Chapter 7 Case Studies 55 7.1 Introduction 56 7.2 Case Study Overview 59 7.3 Summary of Presentations and Lessons Learned 62 Chapter 8 Study Limitations and Recommendations for Future Research 64 Appendix A Institutional Background: Existing Airport Resources and Plans 77 Appendix B Other Climate Risk Evaluation Approaches 79 Appendix C Monte Carlo Simulation and Value-at-Risk Analysis 83 Appendix D Accessing Available Climate Projections 89 Appendix E Microsoft Excel Templates 103 Appendix F Climate Risk and Mitigation Numerical Examples 113 Appendix G FAA Guidance on Benefit–Cost Analysis 119 Appendix H Case Study Details 132 Appendix I Potential Climate Change Effects and Illustrative Responses for Airports 137 Bibliography Keyed to Major Topics 140 Glossary 144 References 147 Endnotes