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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Using Models to Estimate

HOG AND PIG

Inventories

PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP

Nancy J. Kirkendall, Rapporteur

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Agricultural Statistics Service (Agreement 58-3AEU-4-005, as amended). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-49572-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-49572-5
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25526.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON USING MODELS TO ESTIMATE HOG PRODUCTION

ERIC V. SLUD (Chair), U.S. Census Bureau and University of Maryland, College Park

KATHERINE BENNETT ENSOR, Rice University

RONALD L. PLAIN, University of Missouri-Columbia (emeritus)

LEE L. SCHULZ, Iowa State University

CHRISTOPHER K. WIKLE, University of Missouri

NANCY J. KIRKENDALL, Project Director

ANTHONY MANN, Program Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Georgetown University

ANNE C. CASE, Princeton University

JANET M. CURRIE, Princeton University

DONALD A. DILLMAN, Washington State University

DIANA FARRELL, JP Morgan Chase Institute, Washington, DC

ROBERT GOERGE, University of Chicago

HILARY HOYNES, University of California, Berkeley

DANIEL KIFER, Pennsylvania State University

SHARON LOHR, Arizona State University (emerita)

THOMAS L. MESENBOURG, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)

SARAH M. NUSSER, Iowa State University

JEROME P. REITER, Duke University

JUDITH A. SELTZER, University of California, Los Angeles

C. MATTHEW SNIPP, Stanford University

JEANETTE WING, Columbia University

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director

CONNIE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Acknowledgments

This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Cynthia Z. Clark, independent consultant, McLean, Virginia, and Lee L. Schulz, Department of Economics, Iowa State University. We also thank staff member Linda Casola for reading and providing helpful comments on this manuscript.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Thomas A. Louis, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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In 2014, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) engaged the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a planning committee to organize a public workshop for an expert open discussion of their then-current livestock models. The models had worked well for some time. Unfortunately beginning in 2013, an epidemic that killed baby pigs broke out in the United States. The epidemic was not fully realized until 2014 and spread to many states. The result was a decline in hog inventories and pork production that was not predicted by the models. NASS delayed the workshop until 2019 while it worked to develop models that could help in times both of equilibrium and shock (disease or disaster), as well as alternative approaches to help detect the onset of a shock. The May 15, 2019, workshop was consistent with NASS’s 2014 intention, but with a focus on a model that can help predict hog inventories over time, including during times of shock. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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