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Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop (2019)

Chapter: Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

Appendix A

Agenda and List of Participants

AGENDA: USING MODELS TO ESTIMATE HOG PRODUCTION: A CNSTAT WORKSHOP WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2019

National Academy of Sciences Building, Members’ Room
2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has developed hog models that combine information from surveys, administrative data, and expert opinion to produce the requisite estimates with the goal of replacing current methods that lack transparency and measures of uncertainty. The purpose of the workshop is to discuss the appropriateness of these models and possible improvements or alternative approaches. Issues for discussion at the workshop include the appropriateness of the modeling techniques developed by NASS, the extent to which the model’s assumptions can be validated, the robustness of the estimates to a failure of one or more assumptions, and other technical issues of model specification. In addition, the workshop will consider the suitability of the data that feed into the model and the properties of desirable estimates of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
8:30 - 9:00 WELCOME AND INTRODUCTIONS
8:30 Eric Slud, planning committee chair and workshop moderator
8:40 Brian Harris-Kojetin, director of CNSTAT
8:50 Linda Young, chief mathematical statistician and director of research and development, NASS
9:00 - 9:40 SESSION 1 Motivation and Overview
Moderator Kathy Ensor
9:00 Nell Sedransk, NISS, Overview and Introduction to Hog Inventory Models
9:30 Discussion
9:40 - 10:05 SESSION 2 Survey Processes, Data Sources
Moderator Ron Plain
9:40 Emilola Abayomi, NASS, The Hog Inventory Survey
9:55 Discussion
10:05 - 10:30 SESSION 3 Setting Official Estimates: The Hog Board
Moderator Chris Wikle
10:05 Seth Riggins, NASS, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report (via webcast)
10:20 Discussion
10:30 - 10:40 BREAK
10:40 - 11:20 SESSION 4 Modeling Efforts Moderator Lee Schulz
10:40 Gavin Corral NASS Statistical Modeling Efforts
11:10 Discussion
11:20 - 11:45 SESSION 5 Web-Scraping Efforts Moderator Kathy Ensor
11:20 Yijun Wei, NASS, Web-Scraping Efforts to Identify Disease
11:35 Discussion
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
11:45 - 12:45 LUNCH
12:45 - 1:45 SESSION 6 Model Innovations
Moderator Ron Plain
12:45 Luca Sartore, NASS, Modeling Swine
Population Dynamics
1:15 Discussion
2:00 - 2:45 SESSION 7 Discussion: Detection and Monitoring of Outbreaks
Moderator Eric Slud
2:00 Matthew Branan and Kamina Johnson, APHIS Monitoring, Surveillance, and Modeling for Swine Diseases.
2:20 Panel Discussion (Lee Schulz, Andrew Lawson, Michael Schweinberger)
2:35 Discussion
2:45 - 3:00 BREAK
3:00 - 3:45 SESSION 8 Discussion: Current Modeling Efforts: State-Space Models, Models of Biological Processes
Moderator Eric Slud
3:00 Panel Discussion (Kathy Ensor, Chris Wikle)
3:20 Discussion
3:45 - 4:30 SESSION 9 Discussion: State-level Models and Data Sources Moderator Chris Wikle
3:45 Panel Discussion (Eric Slud, Gauri Datta, Ron Plain)
4:05 Discussion
4:30 - 5:00 SESSION 10 Discussion: Visions for the Future
Moderator Eric Slud
4:30 Open Discussion
5:00 Adjournment
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON USING MODELS TO ESTIMATE HOG PRODUCTION

Eric V. Slud (Chair), U.S. Census Bureau and University of Maryland, College Park

Katherine Bennett Ensor, Rice University

Ronald L. Plain, University of Missouri–Columbia (emeritus)

Lee L. Schulz, Iowa State University

Christopher K. Wikle, University of Missouri

STAFF

Nancy J. Kirkendall, Study Director

Anthony Mann, Program Associate

Brian Harris-Kojetin, Director, Committee on National Statistics

INVITED DISCUSSANTS

Matthew Branan, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA

Gauri Datta, U.S. Census Bureau

Kamina Johnson, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA

Andrew Lawson, Medical University of South Carolina

Michael Schweinberger, Rice University

NASS PRESENTERS

Emilola Abayomi, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Gavin Corral, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Seth Riggins, Statistics Division, NASS, USDA

Luca Sartore, National Institute of Statistical Science and Research and

Development Division, NASS, USDA

Nell Sedransk, National Institute of Statistical Science and Research and

Development Division, NASS, USDA

Yijun (Frank) Wei, National Institute of Statistical Science and Research

and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Linda Young, Director of Research, NASS, USDA

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

ATTENDEES

Travis Averill, Livestock Branch, NASS, USDA

Jeff Bailey, Branch Chief, Methodology Division, NASS, USDA

Valbona Bejleri, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Lu Chen, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Cynthia Clark, COPAFS; former Administrator of NASS, USDA

Nathan Cruze, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Lindsay Drunasky, Methodology Division, NASS, USDA

Lori Harper, Methodology Division, NASS, USDA

Dan Kerestes, Director of Statistics Division, NASS, USDA

Kay Turner, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
Page 87
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
Page 88
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
Page 89
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
Page 90
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
Page 91
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
×
Page 92
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In 2014, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) engaged the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a planning committee to organize a public workshop for an expert open discussion of their then-current livestock models. The models had worked well for some time. Unfortunately beginning in 2013, an epidemic that killed baby pigs broke out in the United States. The epidemic was not fully realized until 2014 and spread to many states. The result was a decline in hog inventories and pork production that was not predicted by the models. NASS delayed the workshop until 2019 while it worked to develop models that could help in times both of equilibrium and shock (disease or disaster), as well as alternative approaches to help detect the onset of a shock. The May 15, 2019, workshop was consistent with NASS’s 2014 intention, but with a focus on a model that can help predict hog inventories over time, including during times of shock. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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