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2019 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 924 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation Kittelson & AssociAtes, inc. Oakland, CA w i t h BluemAc AnAlytics Portland, OR irwin writing/editing Seattle, WA Subscriber Categories Administration and Management â¢ Planning and Forecasting â¢ Society Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniquesâthe National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of Transportation. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRBâs recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRBâs relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the Federal Highway Administration. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&Iâs recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 924 Project 08-117 ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-48103-8 Library of Congress Control Number 2019956847 Â© 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Dr. Richard Dowling and Dr. Abigail Morgan of Kittelson & Associates, Inc., served as principal investigators for NCHRP Project 08-117 and as the principal authors of this report. The authors wish to thank the volunteer experts who participated in the interim report workshop: Dr. Dan Sperling of the University of California, Davis; Dr. Kazuya Kawamura of the University of Illinois at Chicago; Dr. Catherine Lawson, University at Albany (SUNY); Dr. John Renne, Florida Atlantic University; and Archie Tan and Sam Sharvini of the Orange County Transportation Authority. We also appre- ciate the informal advice we received from Peter Hurley of the City of Portland, Oregon, and from Ed Hutchison of the Florida Department of Transportation. We also want to acknowledge several members of the Kittelson team for their contributions to the research: Karla Kingsley contributed the material on active transportation modes and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) applications; Katie Taylor and Makenzie Cooper created the more complex graphics for this report; and Keith Szot, formerly of Bluemac Analytics, contributed material on internet-of-things (IoT) applications. Finally, thanks to Jill Irwin of Irwin Writing/Editing, who served as our technical editor on this report. CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 924 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Andrew C. Lemer, Senior Program Officer Sheila A. Moore, Program Associate Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Sharon Lamberton, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 08-117 PANEL Field of Transportation PlanningâPlanning Methods and Processes Tanisha Johnson Hall, Fairpointe Planning, Nashville, TN (Chair) Johanna D. Amaya-Leal, Iowa State University, Ames, IA Niles Hunter Annelin, Michigan DOT, Lansing, MI Naveen Eluru, University of Central Florida, Oviedo, FL T. Casey Emoto, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, San Jose, CA Jared D. Kauffman, DART First State, Wilmington, DE Brian Ho-Yin Lee, Puget Sound Regional Council, Seattle, WA Debra A. Nelson, New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, New York, NY Cheng Yan, FHWA Liaison Jennifer L. Weeks, TRB Liaison
Rapidly evolving technologies in a number of fields seem likely to have transforma- tional impacts on land use and transportation in urban and rural settings, raising issues for how to manage public investments in transportation facilities and services to maintain economic vitality and high quality of life. For example, changes in telecommunications are fostering growth of telecommuting and development of on-demand delivery and trans- portation services that in turn may be changing patterns of work and home locations, vehicle ownership and use, demand for parking facilities, and utilization of curb space in urban centers. Expanding applications of 3-D printing, e-commerce, and unmanned aerial systems (popularly referred to as drones) may shift industrial supply chains and locations of warehousing, distribution, and intermodal transfer facilities and jobs. NCHRP Research Report 924: Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Trans- portation presents guidance for transportation agency decision makers responsible for addressing issues related to transportation system investment and land development that may arise as a consequence of transformational technologies. State departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), local governments, and other public-sector decision makers are increasingly confronted with questions of how to consider the potential consequences that transformational technologies may have on regional economic activity, land use, and transportation demand. They also must consider how to manage public investments in transportation facilities and services to maintain economic vitality and high quality of life. The objective of NCHRP Project 08-117, âImpact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation,â was to provide guidance for DOT and other transportation agency decision makers on practical ways to assess the impact of transformational technologies on future activity centers, land use, and travel demand within their regions. A research team led by Kittelson & Associates reviewed the literature, interviewed a variety of practitioners, and drew on their own experience to characterize transformational technologies and their likely impacts and develop a practical procedure and template for assessing these impacts in a region. These impact assessments will be made to assist responsible decision makers to foresee issues related to transportation system invest- ment and land development that may arise as a consequence of transformational tech- nologies. NCHRP Research Report 924 presents guidance and examples for conducting such assessments. F O R E W O R D By Andrew C. Lemer Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
P A R T I Research Overview I-3 Summary I-5 Chapter 1 Introduction I-5 1.1 Scope of Coverage I-5 1.2 Organization of This Report I-8 Chapter 2 Land Use, Transportation, Technology I-8 2.1 The World of New Transportation Technologies I-9 2.2 Focus of This Report I-10 2.3 The Evolution of Technologies I-11 2.4 How Technology Impacts Travel I-12 2.5 How Technology Impacts Land Use I-14 Chapter 3 Characteristics of New Technologies I-14 3.1 Vehicle and Infrastructure Technologies I-19 3.2 Multiple Technology Applications I-27 Chapter 4 A New Mindset for Planning I-28 Chapter 5 Self-Assessment I-28 5.1 The Self-Assessment Process I-29 5.2 Agency Operations and Management I-29 5.3 Review of Regulatory Framework I-30 5.4 Capital Improvement Programs I-30 5.5 Land Development Applications I-31 5.6 Long-Range Planning I-32 Chapter 6 Improve Planning Tools and Processes I-32 6.1 NCHRP Research Report 896âUpdating Forecasting Models I-33 6.2 Florida DOT Guidance to MPOs I-34 Chapter 7 Monitor to Stay Informed I-34 7.1 Resources I-35 7.2 Candidate Metrics and Information Needs I-39 Chapter 8 Get Smart, Get the Expertise I-39 8.1 Option 1: Bring in Other Agencies with Other Expertise I-39 8.2 Option 2: Invite Outside Experts to Sit on Advisory Committees I-41 8.3 Option 3: Hiring and/or Training Staff I-42 8.4 Option 4: Partnering with Educational Institutions I-42 8.5 Option 5: Hire an Outside Expert I-42 8.6 Option 6: Partnering with the Private Sector C O N T E N T S
I-45 Chapter 9 Be Nimble I-45 9.1 Technology-Agnostic Regulations I-46 9.2 Regulating Through Incentives I-46 9.3 Flexible Plans I-47 9.4 Empowered Staff I-47 9.5 Within-Agency Silo Busting and âIn-Reachâ I-48 Chapter 10 Example Agency Responses I-48 10.1 Virginia DOT: Connected and Automated Vehicle Program Plan I-49 10.2 Texas DOT: Agency Strategic Plan I-49 10.3 Los Angeles, California: Transportation Technology Strategy I-51 10.4 San Francisco, California: Regulating TNCs I-53 Chapter 11 Conclusion I-53 11.1 Potential Impacts on Personal Travel and Land Use I-53 11.2 Policy and Planning Challenges I-54 11.3 Adapting the Planning Process P A R T I I Desk Reference on Transformational Technologies II-3 Chapter 1 Overview II-3 1.1 Scope of Technologies Covered II-3 1.2 Technologies and Their Application II-5 Chapter 2 Characteristics of New Technologies II-5 2.1 Personal Communication Devices II-8 2.2 Active Transportation Technologies II-10 2.3 Vehicle-Related Technologies II-11 2.4 Alternative Fuel Vehicles II-15 2.5 EVs II-22 2.6 CVs II-27 2.7 AVs (Self-Driving Vehicles) II-39 2.8 UAVs and Droids II-41 2.9 Infrastructure TechnologiesâHighways/Roadways II-45 2.10 Infrastructure TechnologiesâParking Systems II-48 Chapter 3 Applications of New Technologies II-48 3.1 Applications That Replace the Need to Travel II-51 3.2 Applications That Facilitate Travel II-57 3.3 Applications That Increase Flexibility in Land Use II-58 3.4 Applications That Improve Government Services II-59 3.5 Applications That Improve the Delivery of Transportation Services II-63 3.6 Applications That Improve the Delivery of Parking Services II-67 3.7 Applications That Improve Logistics P A R T I I I Reference Materials III-3 Abbreviations III-5 Glossary III-9 References and Bibliography Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.