Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation (2019)

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I-3 Many observers suggest that rapidly evolving technologies in a number of fields will transform land use and transportation in settings ranging from rural to intensely urban. For example, changes in telecommunications have fostered telecommuting and the devel- opment of on-demand delivery and transportation services that in turn may be changing patterns of work and home locations, vehicle ownership and use, demand for parking facilities, and utilization of curb space in urban centers. Similarly, expanding applications of 3-D printing, e-commerce, and unmanned aerial systems or vehicles (UASs or UAVs, popularly called drones) together seem poised to shift industrial supply chains and utilization of warehouse space, leading to changes in freight transportation patterns and demand for investment in intermodal transfer facilities. State departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), local government authorities, and other public- sector decision makers increasingly are confronted with questions about how to ensure that communities recognize the potential consequences transformational technologies may have on their economic activity and land use, and that public investments in transportation facilities and services are managed to maintain economic vitality and a high quality of life. For the purposes of this research, transformational technologies are any of a broad range of evolving new applications of science, engineering, and societal organization that have the potential to transform how people and institutions use land and transportation systems to support economic and social activity. Examples of transformational technologies— many are discussed in technical and popular media—include wireless telecommunications, shared vehicles, connected vehicles (CVs), fully autonomous vehicles (AVs), alternative fuel vehicles, smart cities and communities, big data analytics, the internet-of-things (IoT), as well as UAVs, 3-D printing, and more. Individually and together, these transformational technologies are already influencing how businesses and individuals use rights-of-way, curb space, and ancillary transportation facilities (e.g., parking and intermodal transfer facilities), and the land and structures accommodating activities that are travel demand intensive. Continued development and application of transformational technologies seems likely to accelerate such impacts. Research is needed to provide guidance to assist DOTs and other public-sector decision makers responsible for considering how transfor- mational technologies will affect travel behavior and demand for and use of land influencing transportation infrastructure and services. Objective The objective of NCHRP Project 08-117, “Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation,” was to develop a guidebook providing a template or procedure by which DOTs and other transportation-system decision makers could make S U M M A R Y Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation

I-4 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation practical assessments of the likely impacts of transformational technologies on future activity centers, land use, and travel demand, with examples illustrating application of the template to address issues encountered by these decision makers. Products of the Research The research developed the following products: • Interim Report 1, which presented literature reviews, expert interviews, and other back- ground research as needed to support presentation of a framework for consideration of the potential impacts of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand in the United States. The framework had the following components: – A taxonomy of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand within a one- to three-decade time horizon; – Illustrative examples of specific transformational technologies within each taxonomic category and the cause-and-effect relationships between each specific transformational technology and land use or travel demand and their potential time scales; and – Representative decision makers or institutions likely to be concerned with influencing these relationships or responding to their economic and social impacts. • A workshop at which experts tested and refined the framework for consideration of the potential impacts of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand in the United States. • Interim Report 2, which presented a refined and expanded framework, identifying: – Typical short- and long-term issues facing decision makers, decisions to be made, and consequences related to transformational technologies’ impacts on use of land and travel system configuration and management; – Metrics of change for evaluating the significance of transformational technology impacts; – Private-sector and other institutional or jurisdictional partnerships needed to manage land use and transportation system investment and operations to respond to transformational technologies; and – Information needed to support effective transportation system investment and management decisions. • A guide to help DOTs and other transportation system decision makers assess the likely impacts of transformational technologies on future activity centers, land use and travel demand using the steps outlined in the final framework and including: – Characterization of significant relationships between transformational technologies and land use and travel demand; – Identification of typical short- and long-term issues facing decision makers, decisions to be made, and consequences related to transformational technologies’ impacts on use of land and transportation system configuration and management; – Identification of metrics of change for evaluating the significance of transformational technology impacts; – Identification of the private sector, institutional, or jurisdictional partnerships needed to manage land use and transportation system investment and operations to respond to transformational technologies; and – Information needed to support effective transportation system investment and management decisions; and examples of issues related to transformational technologies and direction on how to use the guide to address such issues. The completed guide is published as the Desk Reference on Transformational Technologies (Part II of this report).