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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Part I: Research Overview." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

PART I: RESEARCH OVERVIEW 1

Page: 2 CONTENTS: PART I Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 6  OBJECTIVE ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6  RESEARCH PLAN ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7  1  Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 9  1.1  Scope of Coverage ..................................................................................................................................................... 9  1.2  Organization of Report ............................................................................................................................................... 9  2  Land Use, Transportation, Technology ................................................................................ 11  2.1  The World of New Transportation Technologies ................................................................................................. 11  2.2  Focus Of This Report ................................................................................................................................................... 12  2.3  The Evolution of Technologies ................................................................................................................................. 13  2.4  How Technology Impacts Travel and Land Use ................................................................................................. 14  2.5  How Technology Impacts Land Use ...................................................................................................................... 16  3  Characteristics of New Technologies .................................................................................. 18  3.1  Vehicle and Infrastructure Technologies ............................................................................................................. 18  3.1.1 Electric Bicycles and Scooters ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Automobile, Mass Transit, Freight Technologies ............................................................................................ 19  3.1.3 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles & Droids ............................................................................................................... 22 3.1.4 Highway System Technologies ......................................................................................................................... 23  3.1.5 Parking System Technologies ........................................................................................................................... 24 3.2  Multiple Technology Applications .......................................................................................................................... 24  3.2.1 Personal Mobility and Land Use Applications ..................................................................................................... 24  3.2.2 Government Services Applications ....................................................................................................................... 28  3.2.3  Logistics Applications ................................................................................................................................................ 29  4  A New Mindset for Planning ................................................................................................. 33  5  Self-Assessment ..................................................................................................................... 35  5.1  the Self-Assessment Process ..................................................................................................................................... 35  5.2  Agency Operations and Management ............................................................................................................... 36  5.3  Review of Regulatory Framework .......................................................................................................................... 36  5.4  Capital Improvement Programs ............................................................................................................................. 38  5.5  Land Development Applications ........................................................................................................................... 38  5.6  Long-Range Planning ................................................................................................................................................ 39  6  Improve Planning Tools and Processes ............................................................................... 40  6.1  NCHRP Report 896 – Updating Forecasting Models .......................................................................................... 40 

Page: 3 6.2  Florida DOT MPO GUidance .................................................................................................................................... 41  7  Be Informed - Monitoring ...................................................................................................... 42  7.1  Resources ...................................................................................................................................................................... 42  7.2  Candidate Metrics and Information Needs ........................................................................................................ 43  7.2.1 Metrics of Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 44 7.2.2 Metrics of Land Use and Location Changes ................................................................................................. 44 7.2.3 Early Indicators of Problems with Current Code and Plans ........................................................................ 45 7.2.4 Metrics of Parking Demand Changes ............................................................................................................ 45 7.2.5 Metrics of Travel Demand Changes ...................................................................................................................... 46  8  Get Smart, Get the Expertise ................................................................................................ 48  8.1.1 Option 1: Bring in Other Agencies with Other Expertise ................................................................................... 48  8.1.2 Option 2: Invite Outside Experts to Sit on Advisory Committees .................................................................... 48  8.1.3 Option 3: Hiring and/or Training Staff .................................................................................................................... 51  8.1.4 Option 4: Partnering with Educational Institutions ............................................................................................. 51  8.1.5 Option 5: Hire an Outside Expert ............................................................................................................................ 51  8.1.6 Option 6: Partnering with the Private Sector ....................................................................................................... 52  9  Be Nimble ............................................................................................................................... 55  9.1  Technology-Agnostic Regulations ......................................................................................................................... 55  9.2  Regulating Through Incentives ............................................................................................................................... 56  9.3  Flexible Plans ................................................................................................................................................................ 57  9.4  Empowered Staff ........................................................................................................................................................ 57  9.5  Within Agency Silo-Busting and In-Reach ............................................................................................................ 57  10  Example Agency Responses ................................................................................................ 58  10.1  Virginia DOT Connected and Automated Vehicle Program Plan ............................................................ 58  10.2  Texas DOT Agency Strategic Plan ...................................................................................................................... 59  10.3  Los Angeles transportation Technology Strategy ........................................................................................... 60  10.4  San Francisco, CA ................................................................................................................................................... 62  11  Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 66  11.1  Potential Impacts on Travel and Land Use ...................................................................................................... 66  11.2  Policy and Planning Challenges ......................................................................................................................... 66  11.3  Adapting the Planning Process ........................................................................................................................... 67  Glossary ........................................................................................................................................ 68  Abbreviations and Acronyms .................................................................................................... 72  Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 74 

Page: 4 LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 1: The World of Innovative Transportation Technologies .......................................................... 11  Exhibit 2: Focus Technologies of this Guide ............................................................................................. 12  Exhibit 3: New Technologies Lead to New Applications ....................................................................... 13  Exhibit 4: Impacts of Lower Travel Costs and Times on Travel Demand .............................................. 15  Exhibit 5: Hypothetical Example of Mode Shift Effects of Super Taxi Service ..................................... 16  Exhibit 6: Impacts of Lower Travel Cost on Urban Form and Growth .................................................. 17  Exhibit 7: Example E-Commerce Applications ........................................................................................ 25  Exhibit 8 Metrics for Monitoring Impacts of New Technologies ............................................................ 43 

Page: 5 AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many people to thank for their help in producing this report. We would first like to thank the NCHRP Project 08-117 panel for their insights, assistance, and guidance throughout this project. We thank the volunteer experts who participated in our interim report workshop:  Dr. Dan Sperling of the University of California, Davis;  Dr. Kazuya Kawamura of the University of Illinois at Chicago;  Dr. Catherine Lawson, University at Albany (SUNY);  Dr. John Renne, Florida Atlantic University; and  Archie Tan and Sam Sharvini of the Orange County Transportation Authority. We appreciate the informal advice we have received from Peter Hurley of the City of Portland, Oregon, and from Ed Hutchison of the Florida Department of Transportation. We would like to credit several members of the Kittelson team for their contributions to the research.  Karla Kingsley contributed the material on active transportation modes and mobility-as-a- service (MaaS) apps.  Katie Taylor and Makenzie Cooper created the more complex graphics for this report.  Keith Szot, formerly of Bluemac Analytics, contributed material on IoT applications.  Jill Irwin of Irwin Writing/Editing has been our technical editor on this report. Sincerely, KITTELSON & ASSOCIATES, INC. Richard Dowling, PhD, PE Abigail Morgan, PhD, PE. Senior Principal Engineer Senior Engineer

Page: 6 SUMMARY Many observers suggest that rapidly evolving technologies in a number of fields will have transformational impacts on land use and transportation in settings ranging from rural to intensely urban. For example, changes in telecommunication have fostered telecommuting and development of on-demand delivery and transportation services that in turn may be changing patterns of work and home locations, vehicle ownership and use, demand for parking facilities, and utilization of curb space in urban centers. Similarly, expanding application of 3-D printing, e- commerce, and unmanned aerial systems or vehicles (UASs or UAVs, popularly referred to as drones) together seem poised to shift industrial supply chains and utilization of warehouse space, leading to changes in freight transportation patterns and demand for investment in intermodal transfer facilities. State departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), local government authorities, and other public-sector decision-makers are increasingly confronted with questions about how to ensure that communities recognize the potential consequences transformational technologies may have on their economic activity and land use and that public investments in transportation facilities and services are managed to maintain economic vitality and high quality of life. For the purposes of this research, transformational technologies are any of a broad range of evolving new applications of science, engineering, and societal organization that have the potential to transform how people and institutions use land and transportation systems to support economic and social activity. Examples of transformational technologies—many are discussed in technical and popular media—include wireless telecommunications, shared vehicles, connected vehicles, fully autonomous vehicles, alternative-fuel vehicles, smart cities and communities, big data analytics, internet-of-things, as well as UAVs, 3-D printing, and more. These transformational technologies, individually and together, are already influencing how businesses and individuals use rights-of-way, curb space and ancillary transportation facilities (for example, parking and intermodal transfer facilities), and the land and structures accommodating activities that are travel-demand intensive. Continued development and application of transformational technologies seems likely to accelerate such impacts. Research is needed to provide guidance to assist DOT and other public-sector decision-makers responsible for considering how transformational technologies will affect travel behavior and demand for and use of land influencing transportation infrastructure and services. OBJECTIVE The objective of this research is to develop a guidebook providing a template or procedure for practical assessment by DOT and other transportation-system decision-makers of the likely impact of transformational technologies on future activity centers, land use, and travel demand, with examples illustrating application of the template to address issues encountered by these decision- makers.

Page: 7 RESEARCH PLAN The research developed the following products:  Interim Report 1, presenting literature reviews, expert interviews, and other background research as needed to support presentation of a framework for consideration of the potential impacts of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand in the United States. The framework has the following components:  a taxonomy of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand within a one- to three-decade time horizon;  illustrative examples of specific transformational technologies within each taxonomic category and the cause-and-effect relationships between each specific transformational technology and land use or travel demand and their potential time scales; and  representative decision-makers or institutions likely to be concerned with influencing these relationships or responding to their economic and social impacts.  Workshop of experts to test and refine the framework for consideration of the potential impacts of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand in the United States.  Interim Report 2, presenting a refined and expanded framework for consideration of the potential impacts of transformational technologies with potential to have significant impact on land use and travel demand in the United States, identifying:  typical short- and long-term issues facing decision-makers, decisions to be made, and consequences related to transformational technologies’ impacts on use of land and travel system configuration and management;  metrics of change for evaluating the significance of transformational technology impacts;  private sector and other institutional or jurisdictional partnerships needed to manage land use and transportation system investment and operations to respond to transformational technologies; and  information needed to support effective transportation system investment and management decisions.  Guide (published as three volumes) to help DOT and other transportation system decision- makers assess the likely impacts of transformational technologies on future activity centers, land use and travel demand:  characterization of significant relationships between transformational technologies and land use and travel demand;  identification of typical short- and long-term issues facing decision-makers, decisions to be made, and consequences related to transformational technologies’ impacts on use of land and transportation system configuration and management;

Page: 8  identification of metrics of change for evaluating the significance of transformational technology impacts;  identification of the private sector, institutional, or jurisdictional partnerships needed to manage land use and transportation system investment and operations to respond to transformational technologies;  information needed to support effective transportation system investment and management decisions; and examples of issues related to transformational technologies and direction on how to use the guide to address such issues.

Page: 9 1 INTRODUCTION We live in exciting times. We live in challenging times. Never has the transportation sector witnessed such rapid changes in the technologies used to move people and goods. The private sector that used to be content building conventional cars and trucks now wants to invest billions of dollars in every aspect of transportation infrastructure. Planners can see a truly bright future ahead of us. They also see a truly terrible future ahead of us. The difference will be in how planners in the public sector work with entrepreneurs in the private sector. This project is a rapid-response research effort into the implications of new technologies for local, state, and federal agencies and how best to adapt and evolve current transportation and land use planning practices and products to address the challenges of transformational technologies. This final report for this project provides advice on how state and local agencies can address transformational technologies in their policymaking and planning tools, products, and processes. 1.1 SCOPE OF COVERAGE For the purposes of this project, transformational technologies are defined as any of a broad range of evolving applications of science, engineering, and societal organization with the potential to transform how people and institutions use land and transportation systems. This project focusses on generally land-based highway and transit vehicle and infrastructure- related technologies that will transform land use and the movement of people and goods (see Chapter 2 for details). 1.2 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT This Final Report provides guidance on how state and local agencies can address transformational technologies in their policymaking and planning tools, products, and processes. This document is targeted to transportation and land use planners. It is organized as follows: Chapter 2 provides a quick overview of the typology of technologies covered in this primer and the mechanisms by which these technologies can affect land use and transportation. More detailed information and references are provided in the Appendix to this report. Chapter 3 introduces the terminology and technologies covered in this reference. The chapter is an introduction to the mechanisms by which technologies can impact travel and land use. Chapter 4 describes the self-assessment process that the public agency can use to evaluate its readiness for new technologies and identify potential actions. Chapter 5 describes improvements to conventional planning processes and tools that can be made to address the implications of new technologies.

Page: 10 Chapter 6 suggests a new mindset to planning that agencies might consider to improve their ability to keep up with the implications of rapidly changing technologies. It promotes the concepts, “be informed with data,” “get smart on technology,” and “be nimble” in regulating and planning for transformational technologies affecting land use and transportation. Chapter 7 describes how agencies can be better informed in real time about current land use, travel, and technology trends. It suggests performance measures for consideration as well as conventional and innovative sources for the data to measure performance. Chapter 8 describes various options a public agency has for getting the expertise it needs in new data sources and technologies. Chapter 9 describes how an agency can create more flexible regulations and plans for dealing with the implications of new technologies. Chapter 10 highlights how some agencies have responded to the planning challenges posed by new technologies. The final chapter, Chapter 11, provides a succinct overview of the conclusions and recommendations of this report. Part II of this report is a Desk Reference on transformational technologies and their applications within the transportation/land use systems. It contains additional details and references for the technologies and applications.

Page: 11 2 LAND USE, TRANSPORTATION, TECHNOLOGY We live in a world where we are surrounded by technology. This guide focuses on evolving, transportation-related technologies that are likely to profoundly change how people travel, how goods are moved, and how land is used by society. Thus, while the internal combustion engine- powered automobile is a major factor in how we currently travel, the internal combustion engine is not the focus of this guide. It focuses instead on the newer technologies (electric vehicles, fully autonomous vehicles) that have yet to have a pervasive influence on how people and goods travel but may in a few years affect travel and use land profoundly. A glossary of terms and acronyms used in this guide is provided in the Appendix. 2.1 THE WORLD OF NEW TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES The transportation sector of the economy currently uses a vast array of technologies. They can be roughly classified by the type of guideway they use (highway/road/street, rail, air, or water) (See Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: The World of Innovative Transportation Technologies The technologies can be further classified according to the payload of the vehicle (passengers or freight). Then finally, they can be subdivided according to where they primarily reside within the transportation system: in the vehicles, or on the infrastructure that carries and supports their movement. Infrastructure includes the guideway the vehicle uses as well as the guideway control systems, loading/unloading stations, waiting stations and warehouses, fare collection, and shipment and passenger tracking systems.

Page: 12 Resource limitations required that this guide focus its coverage. Among the wide variety of guideways, payloads, and equipment in the transportation sector, this guide focuses on the highway subsystem (passengers and freight), vehicles and infrastructure. The highway subsystem is the one likely to be of most immediate interest to state DOTs. This guide also includes unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) used for package delivery, since they appear to have the more immediate potential of transforming the operation of the highway subsystem. There are several novel technologies applicable to non-highway modes that might impact highway travel, however; resource limits prevent their coverage at this time.  Passenger-carrying UAVs that could affect highway travel are not covered at this time because cost-efficient passenger-carrying UAVs for the general public appear to be farther off in the future.  Rapid, long-distance transportation modes like high-speed rail, rockets, maglev, hyperloops, and supersonic transport (either above or below ground) may also affect intercity highway passenger travel as well as metro area highway travel, however; they appear to be further off (having significant costs to overcome). 2.2 FOCUS OF THIS REPORT Exhibit 2 shows the transformational technologies that were selected to be the focus of this report: highway, road, and street vehicles, UAVs, and highway/road/street parking infrastructure. Personal communication devices have been added to the categories of technologies because it is the pervasiveness of personal communication capabilities that enables the implementation of a wide variety of transformational applications of the new highway technologies. Exhibit 2: Focus Technologies of this Guide Note that many ground transport options are available for last-mile freight deliveries. This report focuses on UAVs for last-mile deliveries as being the most potentially transformational among the available options.

Page: 13 New technologies are applied in the transportation field to help travelers, shippers, and carriers more cost-effectively accomplish their mobility goals. Each application may employ a variety of technologies. Transportation applications can be grouped according to their focus area: improving personal mobility, improving land use efficiency, improving delivery of government services, and goods delivery (logistics) (see Exhibit 3). Exhibit 3: New Technologies Lead to New Applications The distinction between technologies and applications is necessarily indefinite. Generally:  Technologies involve more hardware than software. Often the software associated with the technology provides basic functionality for the hardware.  An application involves more software than hardware. It builds on the basic functionality of various technologies, combining them to provide more sophisticated functionality. 2.3 THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGIES Vehicle technologies, infrastructure technologies, and their more sophisticated applications go through four typical stages of development.  A technology is under development if it has yet to be pilot tested on the public infrastructure. This category includes infrastructure technologies being tested only in a laboratory or on a closed test track.  A technology is in the pilot testing stage if it is currently deployed on limited public sites in the United States. This category includes infrastructure technologies being tested in the public right of way if the testing is being funded at a limited number of sites in the United States through special, one-time-only private or public grants. When pilot testing is

Page: 14 complete, the technical challenges have been overcome. The next stage is to determine how the technology will compete in the marketplace with existing technologies.  A technology is at the loss leader stage if it is generally deployed in major urban and/or rural areas of the United States, but its operating costs are being subsidized by the government or the provider.  Finally, a technology is self-sustaining when it has reached the point where it is able to successfully compete with other technologies in the marketplace. For a privately-funded effort, this point is reached when operating revenues exceed operating costs. For publicly- funded projects, this point is reached when the government decides public benefits outweigh public costs. This category includes infrastructure technologies that are currently implemented through a mixture of special and regular funding sources at more than a half dozen urban areas in the United States. 2.4 HOW TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS TRAVEL AND LAND USE Transportation, like all conventional economic goods, is something travelers and shippers would prefer to pay less for. If they can get it for less, they tend to buy more of it. New technologies and the applications these technologies within the transportation system will impact travel patterns through various mechanisms: 1. The technology may reduce the time cost of travel compared to other modes of travel. 2. The technology may reduce the monetary cost of travel compared to other options. 3. The technology may make new travel options available (for example a new highway or new transit service to a previously inaccessible area). Any technology that affects travel costs and options will also impact land use (see next subsection). Changes in land use will, in turn, affect travel patterns in a synergistic process. Anything that reduces the temporal and/or monetary cost of travel by a particular mode will usually increase travel by other modes (all other factors being held constant) or increase overall travel. Anything that makes new travel options available will also usually increase travel (again, all other factors being held constant).

Page: 15 Exhibit 4: Impacts of Lower Travel Costs and Times on Travel Demand Note: The see-saw applies only if one factor is changed at a time, while all others held constant. New technologies can also cause travel to shift to other times of day. Travel may shift destinations when a technology opens new markets. The shifting of demand from other modes, times of day, and destinations may be much greater than the net effect on total demand. Exhibit 5 shows the hypothetical impacts of a super taxi service (super cheap and convenient) on the other passenger travel modes. In this example, the new super taxi service draws most of its passengers from existing modes: transit and carpool. It is often the case that a new mode of travel draws most of its passengers from existing modes. Some entirely new trips may be generated, but most of the passengers will come from the other modes.

Page: 16 Exhibit 5: Hypothetical Example of Mode Shift Effects of Super Taxi Service 2.5 HOW TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS LAND USE Anything that reduces travel costs may increase land values and densities by improving accessibility (if all other factors are held constant). Travel time and cost affect a traveler’s choice of destinations, which affects the value of land, and therefore land use (Zhao & Soon, 2006). However, one finds that in the real world it is rarely this simple. As further explained below, several other factors play into land values and densities besides travel cost. Transportation infrastructure improvements are necessarily location specific. Improvements to facilities serving a downtown core tend to increase downtown land values and density while reducing land values and densities in the suburban fringe. Some of the new transportation-related technologies considered in this guide, however, may have a global impact on travel costs and therefore on land values throughout the urban and rural areas. Other technologies that are deployed first in urban areas will tend to decrease land values (or slow down their increase) in rural areas where those technologies are not deployed. Lower travel costs tend to increase the value (and accelerate the development) of land that was harder to reach before the technology took effect. Depending on the geographic location of the travel time improvements, the fringes of the urban area may see greater benefit than other areas (see Exhibit 6). Downtowns may be negatively affected when lower travel costs make fringe developments more financially attractive than downtown developments. Socioeconomic

Page: 17 changes (such as smaller family sizes) as well as changes in taste (such as a preference for a downtown lifestyle) can counteract the land use effects of reduced travel costs. Exhibit 6: Impacts of Lower Travel Cost on Urban Form and Growth Lower travel costs also enable manufacturers and shippers to locate outside expensive land and labor areas, moving to areas with lower labor and land costs and shipping their goods to the higher labor cost areas. Land costs are just one of many factors affecting location choice. Socioeconomic effects (such as the desire for a highly skilled labor pool) can overcome land cost differences. Also, higher time values placed on rapid order fulfillment by new technology can cause carriers, shippers, and manufacturers to relocate their infrastructure to higher land cost areas. Finally, lower travel costs can promote the movement of jobs from areas where travel costs are high and technology options limited (such as rural areas) to urban areas with superior technology options.

Page: 18 3 CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES This chapter provides a quick overview of the transformational technologies likely to have significant effects on land use and transportation in the coming 10 to 30 years. First, individual vehicle and infrastructure technologies, such as electrification, are described. Then applications of combinations of these technologies, such as shared electric vehicles, are described. This chapter describes the characteristics of each technology and application and highlights their most significant impacts. It is a high-level summary (with references excluded) of the more detailed information provided in the Appendix to this report. 3.1 VEHICLE AND INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGIES Vehicle and infrastructure technologies covered in this primer include:  Electric bicycles and scooters,  Alternative fuel vehicles,  Electric vehicles (autos, trucks, buses),  Connected vehicles,  Autonomous vehicles,  Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and  Intelligent Transportation System (highway, street, and parking). More detailed information and references for the technologies are provided in the Appendix to this Report. 3.1.1 Electric Bicycles and Scooters The electrification of bicycles and scooters enables higher-speed travel and makes it easier for less physically fit people to go farther using these vehicles. While a human-powered bicycle may travel at 10 to 15 mph, an electric bicycle provides power assistance to reach speeds of 20 to 30 mph for limited distances on level ground. Higher speeds may be feasible for some models. Lithium battery powered e-scooters can achieve highway speeds (35 mph) for limited distances. The shared e-bike and e-scooter market has been highly volatile in the last few years with major deployments and pull-backs (including some bankruptcies) by various vendors in various countries of the world. It is hard to see at this point how the market will ultimately mature. Potential Travel Impacts: E-bikes and e-scooters, by increasing the feasible range of travel and making active transportation vehicles accessible to more travelers, might decrease walking for longer trips. They might replace some short transit and taxi trips. They might increase the use of transit for longer trips by providing first and last mile access to transit stops. Increased transit use for

Page: 19 longer distance trips might reduce auto trips. The actual effects will ultimately depend on deployment and pricing. Shared-use applications of e-bikes and e-scooters will have greater impacts. Other Potential Impacts: See Section 3.2.1.2, Applications Facilitating Travel for the impacts of shared e-bikes and e-scooters. 3.1.2 Automobile, Mass Transit, Freight Technologies Potentially transformative automobile technologies include:  Alternative fuel vehicles,  Electric vehicles,  Connected vehicles (CVs), and  Autonomous (self-driving) vehicles (AVs). 3.1.2.1 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Alternative fuel vehicles may use a variety of gaseous or liquid fuels (besides gasoline or diesel) to power their internal combustion engines. The fuels might be various kinds of natural gas (methane), such as compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquified natural gas (LNG) from traditional petroleum-based or renewable sources, such as biomethane and biodiesel. Vehicles could be fueled by propane gas, butane gas, or various mixes of the two. The alternative fuel may mix ethanol with gasoline. Alternative fuels have various air quality and sustainability benefits compared to gasoline. Potential Impacts on Travel: Since the ranges and speeds of alternative-fueled vehicles are similar to those of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, this technology is not anticipated to significantly change travel demand in the short or long term. The higher vehicle purchase costs (until mass production lowers costs) will likely limit the impact of alternative fuel vehicles on travel. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: Alternative fuel vehicles will need an increase in dedicated refueling stations to increase their market penetration. 3.1.2.2 Electric Vehicles (EVs) Electric vehicles (EVs) use an electric motor as their motive power. The electricity may be provided by overhead wire, third rail, a battery, solar cells, fuel cells, or internal combustion engines. Potential Impacts on Travel: EVs are currently more expensive to purchase than conventionally-powered

Page: 20 vehicles. Their operating and maintenance costs can be significantly lower than for conventional vehicles, if one does not consider the eventual cost of replacing the batteries when they will no longer hold a charge. Current government incentives (tax credits and free public recharging stations) greatly reduce the perceived cost of owning and operating an EV. The ultimate impact of EVs on travel will depend on the extent to which manufacturers and government subsidies reduce the initial costs and perceived operating costs of EVs. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: The direct land use impact of EVs will be on the proliferation of recharging stations in parking garages and lots and at curbsides to support EVs. The impacts of EVs on trip making and mode choice (transit use for example) will be dependent on the level of government subsidies and the ability of technology/mas production improvements to get the cost of owning and operating an EV to be equivalent to that of gasoline/diesel powered vehicles. If EV costs eventually become equivalent to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, then EVs would not impact trip making and mode choice. Policy and Planning Challenges: EVs can significantly reduce air pollutant emissions from vehicles but significant upgrades to the electrical generation, distribution, and storage system will be needed to accommodate a significant increase in EVs in the vehicle fleet. More charging stations are needed. A recent concern is vehicle fires when the batteries are damaged. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: The cost of electricity associated with spikes in demand from fast-charging EV charging stations in more remote areas poses challenges along rural highways. Adding fast-charging stations to rural rest areas along interstates is presently infeasible due to their impacts on spikes in demand and associated electricity rates. 3.1.2.3 Connected Vehicles (CVs) Connected vehicles (CVs) may talk to each other (V2V communications) and to roadside infrastructure (V2I). Vehicles might exchange basic information like location, speed, and status, or more sophisticated information like destination, payload, and on-time status. The infrastructure might inform the vehicle of downstream conditions and recommend a speed. Potential Impacts on Travel: CVs are expected to reduce the frequency of crashes and unexpected delays due to crashes. The improved travel time reliability may modestly increase vehicle travel (both trips and distance) at the expense of other modes of travel. Fewer crashes will also improve on-time performance for transit vehicles in the street. Transit agencies may be able to meet their performance goals with fewer vehicles in reserve during peak periods. The benefits

Page: 21 of connected vehicles can be greatly magnified when combined with self-driving capabilities (autonomous vehicles). Policy and Planning Challenges: The primary policy and planning challenges are whether to continue to invest in the proven dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) technology or to wait on the commercial development of 5G. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: The required heavy initial investment in DSRC roadside units or 5G towers (and connecting fiber) will likely delay deployment of CVs in rural areas unless government subsidies or regulations are employed to spur deployment there. 3.1.2.4 Fully Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicles (AVs) The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines five levels of automation ranging from limited driver assistance, like cruise control, to fully self-driving vehicles. This report focuses on the most transformational level of automation, the fully self-driving vehicle (Level 5). Self-drive or fully autonomous vehicles (AV) are capable of performing all driving tasks under all conditions within their defined operational design domain (e.g. parking lot, freeway, city street, etc.). The literature has yet to coalesce on whether self-driving vehicles should be called “autonomous” or “automated”. We have chosen to link both terms together “autonomous/automated” when talking of self-driving vehicles, unless the specific reference cited uses only a single term. Potential Impacts on Travel: If AV developers can get their production and operating costs down to significantly below that of conventional human-driven taxi services (roughly $3 per mile) there may be substantial increases in use of AVs as essentially chauffeured vehicles by the public. Potential Land Use Implications (Regional, Streetscape): The availability of low-cost chauffeured service, if AV manufacturers can achieve it, would significantly affect the need for and the location of parking facilities in an urban area. If low cost AVs can quickly appear anywhere in the urban area on demand, travelers need not park within short walking distance of their destination. If they share their AV with others, they need not park their vehicle at all. They can be dropped off and picked up curbside. The AV can serve others while the traveler conducts his or her business. A different AV can then be summoned to pick up the traveler when ready. The key to this scenario is low cost and short wait times. Increased use of curbs for pickups and drop-offs will place a premium on incorporating safe and convenient pickup and drop-off areas in development site plans and streetscape.

Page: 22 Potential Implications for Highway Infrastructure Needs and Design: Highway design standards may need to be reevaluated for AVs. Closely following vehicles may affect pavement and bridge structure design loads. Adherence to current design standards may be more critical for AVs, which currently are less able to adapt to unique situations than human drivers. AVs, by enabling closer car following might increase the capacity of existing highways once they achieve minimum market penetration. Potential Environmental Impacts: AV technology may enable agencies to mandate eco-driving algorithms to reduce emissions. Increased vehicle travel due to deadheading back home or circulating while waiting for a pickup could greatly increase environmental impacts. Potential Implications for Logistics: AV freight trucks have the potential to reduce truck operating costs by up to 50 percent. Most of that savings would come from eliminated driver wages and benefits. Such cost savings would draw longer-haul freight from alternative modes like rail. Policy and Planning Challenges: The policy and planning challenges related to AV technology lie primarily in safety regulation at the federal and state levels. At the local level, the shift in demand from off-street parking to curbside drop-off will require rethinking local on-site parking requirements and site plan designs for pickups and drop-offs. Over the long term, conversion of underutilized parking lots and garages to other uses will be a consideration. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: There are many roadway operating conditions unique to rural areas that have yet to be the focus of AV development. Potential conflicts with wildlife in rural areas may be a concern. 3.1.3 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles & Droids Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, also called drones) and ground-based droids are designed to deliver lightweight, small-size freight over short distances: the last mile or last 50 feet. They might be gasoline powered for longer distances and heavier loads or they might be battery powered. They are often remote- controlled by a pilot, but can also be automated, self-piloted. Potential Impacts on Travel: Aerial deliveries may reduce urban street congestion by reducing the number of trucks, the need for curbside truck loading zones, and the likelihood of double parking for deliveries when a loading zone is not available. When combined with internet applications that facilitate e-commerce, short-distance package delivery systems can reduce some personal travel, replacing it with freight delivery. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: UAVs may affect location choices for freight distribution centers. Building designs may be altered to provide drone ports and UAV-accessible smart lockers for temporarily storing delivered goods on site until the consignee can pick them up.

Page: 23 Potential Implications for Logistics: UAVs are likely to affect the choice of mode (ground or air) for last-mile delivery of small-size, low-weight goods. Distribution center locations may be affected. Policy and Planning Challenges: Privacy is one of the largest concerns related to drones, and while the Federal Aviation Administration currently states that drones cannot fly over people, it leaves privacy regulations to state and local regulation (National League of Cities, 2016). A more recent summary of challenges can be found at Ensuring safety and security is another key concern, as drones may be targets of hacking and cyberattacks. Finally, the propeller noise associated with current UAVs may be a policy and planning challenge for residential areas and quiet zones around hospitals and schools 3.1.4 Highway System Technologies Innovative intelligent highway system infrastructure technologies are located on roads and streets, at transit stations/stops and traffic management centers (TMC). They take advantage of greater real-time travel activity data available from traveler devices and smarter devices in the field to enable better management, increasing the transportation infrastructure’s efficiency and productivity. Emerging highway system technologies can be divided between field sensors, control devices, and informational devices. Field Sensors: Conventional field detection technologies include loop detectors and video cameras/detectors. They count all vehicles that pass through their detection field, classify them (truck, car, etc.) and estimate spot speeds. Emerging detection technologies track wireless devices that people carry on their person or in their vehicle as they move through the system. These include cell phone location tracking (location-based services) and Bluetooth device tracking sensors. Control Devices: Conventional devices for controlling vehicular traffic include traffic signals, stop signs, and various signs to control turns, usage (weight limits), and speeds. Emerging technologies replace traditional static controls with dynamic, traffic- and weather-responsive ones using advanced control logic and dynamic message signs. Traffic-adaptive signal controllers are one example. Informational Devices: Static signs give drivers locational and directional information. Emerging technologies replace static informational signs with dynamic, remote-controlled signs that can convey a wealth of information to drivers. Potential Impacts on Travel: Advanced highway technologies, when combined with management strategies and applications to reduce travel time, delay, and cost would tend to

Page: 24 shift travel demand from less technologically advanced modes to the more technologically advanced mode. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: New highway technologies will tend to lower travel costs where they are installed. Lower travel costs tend to favor longer- distance travel and dispersed land uses within the urban area. 3.1.5 Parking System Technologies Potentially transformational parking system technologies are similar to those for highway systems: sensors to monitor parking occupancy, control devices that set and collect parking fees, and informational devices that make travelers aware of parking availability, location, and pricing. Emerging informational technologies for on-street parking, off-street parking lots, and garages can guide vehicles to open parking spaces. These parking messages also may be posted on roadside variable message signs or directly transmitted to a driver’s cellphone or vehicle dashboard. Potential Impacts on Travel: By making it easier to park one’s personal vehicle, this technology will tend to draw travelers to that mode from other modes of travel. The new parking system technologies may also increase total travel to the area where they are deployed. Smarter pricing of available parking may be used to reduce parking demand at key hot spots. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: By enabling agencies and the public to make better use of available parking inventory, these new technologies might enable agencies to dedicate less street space and less land to parking vehicles. They might enable better utilization of remote lots. Greater deployment of advanced parking system technologies might support greater development density. They might draw some development from fringe locations back to the urban core. These new technologies might enable agencies to modestly reduce off- street parking requirements for new development by facilitating shared use of parking spaces among separate adjacent or nearby buildings. 3.2 MULTIPLE TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS Applications take new transportation technologies, combine them, and put them to work to solve transportation problems. 3.2.1 Personal Mobility and Land Use Applications Transformational personal mobility and land use applications of new technologies generally replace the need to travel, facilitate travel (by decreasing travel costs or increasing awareness of available travel options), and introduce new options for using underutilized land uses.

Page: 25 3.2.1.1 Applications Replacing the Need to Travel Applications that replace the need for personal travel operate over the internet. The internet of things (IoT), e-commerce, and 3-D Printing are examples of types of internet applications that replace the need to travel. The Internet of Things (IoT) consists of a variety of technology and software applications that connect computing devices embedded in everyday objects (such as light switches, cameras, and thermostats) to the internet. This enables remote monitoring and operation of household and business systems, replacing the need to travel to the site. E-commerce describes a variety of internet-based applications such as telecommuting, web conferencing, web entertainment, web shopping, remote education, and remote medical consultation. These applications reduce the need for in-person travel but do not eliminate the need for goods movement. In fact, some of these applications will likely increase demands on the national logistics system (see Exhibit 7). Exhibit 7: Example E-Commerce Applications 3-D Printing describes a variety of applications of enhanced printing technologies that enables a person or organization to operate a personalized, limited-quantity manufacturing facility. 3-D

Page: 26 printing does not quite eliminate the need for all travel and freight movement. The 3-D printer must still be fed the raw material (currently two varieties of plastic) from which the final product is made. Each mini-manufacturing site will still need plastic deliveries and waste hauling. Potential Impacts on Travel: Applications that reduce the need to travel can significantly reduce travel demand as their market penetration and their capabilities increase. Current applications, however, do not completely replace the need to travel or move goods. 3-D printers need to be supplied with raw materials. Goods bought online still need to be delivered. Some services, such as healthcare, still require a visit to the hospital or the doctor’s office for some examinations and nearly all treatments. Some work tasks require face-to-face meetings. Some jobs require a physical presence at the work site. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: The ability to avoid travel for many activities will reduce the importance of proximity to work and other services as a factor in housing location choice. This may increase pressure for rural and urban fringe development. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: High-speed internet service is essential for successful e-commerce and telecommuting. Rural areas without high-speed internet service will be disadvantaged compared to other areas. 3.2.1.2 Applications Facilitating Travel Applications for facilitating travel generally make the traveler more aware of the available transportation service options and their costs. They enable the traveler to make more effective use of available transportation services and infrastructure. These applications fall into two broad categories: mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) applications, and wayfinding or navigational applications. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) applications assist travelers in hiring a vehicle with or without a driver. MaaS applications come in many flavors. They might involve non-motorized or motorized vehicles. The vehicles might be cars, vans, trucks, bicycles, or scooters. A hired driver might be provided with the vehicle or the traveler may take charge of driving. MaaS applications include:  Ride Hailing Applications—Exclusive Use: The hired vehicle might be an automobile, a van, or a limousine with driver. The hired vehicle might be a self-driving AV. The passenger hires the vehicle and driver for their exclusive use for the duration of the trip.  Ride Hailing Applications—Shared Use: The passenger may share the hired vehicle and driver with other non-related passengers for a portion or all of the trip.

Page: 27  Automobile Rental Applications: The traveler may choose a vehicle rental and/or sharing service where the traveler rents a vehicle (automobile, van, truck) without driver for a specified time.  Small Vehicle Rental Applications: The traveler may rent a Segway, a bicycle, an e-bike, a scooter, an e-scooter or a similar low-capacity (typically single-person), low-speed (under 35 mph) vehicle. Wayfinding: These internet applications do not provide a vehicle. They make travelers aware of traffic conditions and when the next transit vehicle will arrive. They provide routing services and expected arrival times. They locate nearby businesses of interest to the traveler. They make travelers aware of incidents and hazards. These traveler information services are delivered to the traveler over personal communication devices anywhere with an internet connection. Potential Impacts on Travel: These applications make traveling easier, thereby, facilitating increased travel. Policy and Planning Challenges: The policy challenge is regulating the applications to ensure that the agency’s public welfare, equity and environmental goals are met. Storage of shared vehicles in the public right of way, mixing light vehicles (bicycles, scooters) with heavy vehicles and pedestrians, and navigational apps that send traffic through residential areas are significant concerns. 3.2.1.3 Applications Increasing Land Use Flexibility Transformational internet applications that increase land use efficiency and flexibility seek to connect people who own underutilized space with others desiring to use that space (sometimes in new ways) for a limited period. The applications might involve peer- to-peer or hosted (curated) sharing of underutilized spaces. Providers of remote work space may contract with restaurants and other venues for space not typically used during daytime working hours and rent that space out by the hour or day to members. Home owners and apartment owners may rent out their residences by the night. Owners of private residential parking spaces may seek to rent out their parking space while they are at work. Some urban developers are looking into new technology applications for reducing construction costs and increasing the attractiveness of buildings to new tenants:  Modular housing can be built faster and cheaper than traditional construction.  Robotic parking systems can decrease the land space devoted to parking.

Page: 28  Signal-boosting devices inside new buildings can allow cellphone reception within high-rise towers.  New technologies also enable luxury amenities like infrared saunas. Other urban land developers are including agricultural uses within residential developments. Potential Impacts on Travel: These land use sharing applications, by intensifying usage of existing land uses, will increase the traffic impacts of those uses. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: These land use sharing applications will support higher utilization of existing built spaces. They may reduce demand for traditional work spaces and parking. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: Monitoring and enforcing land use and zoning regulations is particularly challenging in rural areas, where structures may be far removed from the public right of way. 3.2.2 Government Services Applications Governments provide various public benefits to their citizens: emergency services (police, fire, medical), social services, and public utilities (transportation, water, electricity, waste management) among others. Potentially transformational government service applications enable governments to provide superior services less expensively and more time-efficiently. The discussion below is split between applications improving delivery of general government services and those improving specific transportation and parking services. 3.2.2.1 Applications Improving General Government Services Smart city and smart community initiatives develop and integrate data repository and communications applications for better monitoring real-time needs and managing delivery of government services. Smart city/community applications are often built on a central integrated data exchange (IDE), to which all agency divisions contribute data and from which they draw information. The public can also contribute to the IDE through requests for services and notification of events and draw from it to improve their utilization of government services. 3.2.2.2 Applications Improving the Delivery of Transport Services Applications for improving highway and transit travel generally employ a combination of vehicle communications devices and smarter field devices (such as traffic signals and smart transit stops). The applications might improve highway facility and transit fleet management.

Page: 29 Active transportation and demand management (ATDM), integrated corridor management (ICM), and intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are highway management strategies that take advantage of the new functionalities made possible by the new technologies. Transit agencies employ various management strategies to take advantage of the superior information systems provided by new technologies. They might use the technologies to better monitor the status of their vehicle fleet. They might use the technologies to better inform their passengers of the next bus. They might also reach out to MaaS providers to identify partnership opportunities that improve the rider experience. Potential Impacts on Travel: New traffic and transit management strategies for employing CVs will likely reduce congestion and delays and improve transit service reliability. Reduced congestion and improved reliability should attract more drivers and transit passengers to corridors with smart infrastructure. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: Lower travel times and greater reliability will tend to enhance the spread of urban development. 3.2.2.3 Applications Improving the Delivery of Parking Services Applications taking advantage of improved field sensors can improve curbside parking and off-street parking management. These applications may dynamically set parking rates to maximize utilization. They may provide real-time information to travelers via cell phones or dynamic message signs to minimize time wasted searching for an available parking space. By identifying and assigning open curb space and directing drivers to the appropriate curbside zone, they improve the safe management of pedestrians, bicyclists, transit passengers, and taxi passengers on the sidewalks and along the curbside. Potential Impacts on Travel: By increasing the certainty of finding a parking space or rental vehicle, these applications make driving and renting a vehicle more convenient. These applications will therefore tend to encourage greater use of the modes for which the applications have been developed. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: Parking applications enable parking providers to locate their facilities in less visible areas, counting on the application to guide users to their facility. The parking application may enable agencies to replace highly-visible curbside parking with less-visible off-street parking.

Page: 30 3.2.3 Logistics Applications Logistics applications employ the greater information and flexibility new transportation technologies provide to reduce delivery times and goods movement costs. Fuel and labor costs are significant considerations for shippers. Fuel accounts for about 20 percent of shipping cost. Labor (the driver) accounts for another 45 percent (Kawamura, 2018). The applications and their effects vary according to the type of truck service: long-distance line haul (usually trips greater than 50 miles between urban areas) or last-mile delivery services to residences and businesses. 3.2.3.1 Applications Improving Line Haul Line haul trucking services are generally interurban trips 50 to 700 miles in range. At longer distances, trucks compete with railroad and air cargo services. Within this range, trucks are the predominant mode for freight transport. Applications of new technologies to line haul trucking include truck platooning to save on fuel costs and self-driving trucks to save on labor costs. Truck Platooning is currently being researched as an application of AV technology that allows two AV controlled trucks to closely follow a human-driven lead truck. Fuel savings at freeway speeds for a three-truck platoon range from 5 to 10 percent (average over all three trucks) depending on the spacing between vehicles (National Renewable Energy Lab, 2019). The fuel cost savings would therefore be on the order of 1 to 2 percent of per-mile truck operating costs. Some researchers are concerned about the potential for overheating of engines and tires in the trailing vehicles when platooning is deployed for long distances. The concentrated loading on highway bridges is another concern. Self-Driving Trucks offer the potential to reduce labor costs to zero for line haul services. The estimated 45 percent in labor cost savings would be traded off against increased purchase and maintenance costs for the trucks. Deployment Status, Trends, and Challenges: Truck platooning and self-driving trucks are still in the research and development phase. The private sector is actively engaged in pursuing this research. These applications have been tested on freeways in Arizona with a human monitor/driver present. The best combination of detectors, control software, and human monitoring/driving for freeway operations is still under development. Initial deployments will tend to be on rural freeways, where driving challenges are lower than on a congested urban freeway.

Page: 31 Potential Impacts on Travel: The impacts of these line-haul truck shipping applications on person travel are likely to be minor. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: Lower truck shipping costs will require larger-capacity warehouses and distribution centers to handle the increased volume of goods moving by truck. Reduced rail travel may open up some railyards to redevelopment. Potential Implications for Highway Infrastructure Needs and Design. Truck platoons may increase difficulty for autos trying to change lanes and enter/exit freeways. They may increase highway capacity by 10 percent if AV trucks reach 50 percent of the truck fleet in the lanes where truck platoons are concentrated (Kuhn, Lukuc, Poorsartep, & Wagner, 2017). Increased truck movements on freeways may reduce freeway capacities, particularly in mountainous areas with long grades. Load limits on highway bridges will need to be reconsidered in light of truck platoon point loads. Some retrofitting or reconstruction of highway bridges may be required. Potential Implications for Logistics: The potential reductions in truck shipping costs offered by these line-haul applications are likely to shift some long-distance shipments from rail to trucks. Shippers will need to expand the capacity of their warehousing and distribution centers to handle the increased surges in goods when platoons arrive and depart. Policy and Planning Challenges: Providing sufficient space with direct freeway access for enlarged warehousing and distribution centers will be a challenge in urban areas. These expanded centers are likely to continue the trend of locating on the fringe of the urban area where land prices allow larger parcels to be cost-effectively assembled. Higher truck volumes with closer following distances may warrant consideration of dedicated truck-only lanes or freight highways. The shift from rail traffic to truck traffic may work contrary to the agency’s environmental sustainability goals. Highway patrols and emergency responders will need to develop protocols and procedures for interacting with (pulling over) fully autonomous trucks. State car-following regulations may need to be revised to allow truck platooning on rural and urban freeways. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: Rural areas will continue to see new warehouse and distribution centers locating on the fringes of major urban areas. There may be a reduced need for rural truck stops with fewer human drivers and more fuel-efficient trucks. 3.2.3.2 Applications Improving Delivery (Last Mile) Shippers already employ new technologies and applications to track shipments and to dispatch and route their vehicles.

Page: 32 Short distance aerial delivery vehicles (UAVs), and smart locker systems are among the newer applications enabled by the new transportation technologies. These applications offer the potential to reduce last-mile delivery times and costs. Commercially available UAVs can carry small packages of under 15 pounds for distances of up to a mile. More advanced commercial versions and military versions have greater ranges and payloads. Smart lockers enable delivery services to leave a package in a locker at a central, publicly accessible location. The intended recipient can open the locker with the appropriate cellphone app and shipper-provided code. Deployment Status, Trends, and Challenges: The use of UAVs to deliver goods and smart lockers to securely hold packages until the recipient can pick them up are currently being pilot tested by various shippers and carriers. The challenges relate primarily to public acceptance of the new technologies. Potential Impacts on Travel: Improved package delivery services will reduce the need to travel to the store to pick up a purchase. Aerial delivery will reduce the burden on highways. Potential Regional Land Use and Streetscape Design Implications: These new applications will require modifications to building designs to provide space for smart lockers and to allow aerial access to the lockers or alternative delivery bins by UAVs. Potential Implications for Highway Infrastructure Needs and Design. Aerial delivery will reduce the burden on highways. Streetscapes may need to be modified to provide places for UAVs to drop off deliveries. Potential Implications for Logistics: The cost savings of UAVs and the improved security of smart lockers will reduce delivery costs. Reduced delivery costs may encourage more e-shopping, increasing the number of packages delivered. Locker security may be an issue. Policy and Planning Challenges: Public and aerial access to smart lockers needs to be resolved in agency regulations and building codes. ADA accessibility may be a concern for certain delivery methods. Special Considerations Unique to Rural Areas: Rural areas have been testing grounds for initial implementation of some UAV package delivery systems. UAV deliveries in rural areas may require UAVs with longer delivery ranges and higher operating altitudes than are needed in urban areas to reach the more inaccessible locations. In rural towns, this might not be an issue. The use of smart lockers in a centrally located village in lieu of package delivery to the doorstep of remote ranches, farms, and homes may reduce shipping costs to rural areas.

Page: 33 4 A NEW MINDSET FOR PLANNING With the rapid advances in technologies and their applications in transportation in the last few years it has become apparent that: 1. Public agencies have less control than they used to over the transportation system, and 2. Agencies cannot let five years go by between updating their plans and procedures. Public agencies need to be better informed about what the commercial sector and the general public are doing with the land use and transportation system. With better information, agencies then need to be nimbler in how they respond to changes in commercially-offered transportation services and public/private usage patterns. The key themes for agencies planning in an era of rapidly evolving technology are: An agency conducts a self-assessment to determine where there might be gaps in an agency’s ability to address the implications of new technologies in its planning processes and tools. In addition, agencies need to be informed of changing usage trends through continuous data collection and monitoring public travel patterns and land uses. A program that continuously monitors the usage of its infrastructure is critical for an agency desiring to keep up with evolving technology trends. A notable challenge is that the data an agency needs to monitor its operations is the same data the private sector wants to monetize. Agencies need to get smart about the technologies affecting transportation, land use, and the services it provides. Finally, agencies must be nimble, adopting flexible policies, plans, and regulations that can be adapted as technology changes. The agency should be prepared to quickly and frequently adapt its plans, regulations, and procedures to rapidly changing conditions. The days when an agency could safely wait 10 years to update its long-range comprehensive plan are gone. At the very least, it needs to monitor current trends and update its plans, policies, codes, and ordinances every few years as new technologies enter the marketplace and others drop out.  Chapter 5. Self-Assessment describes how agencies can self-assess their capabilities and goals for transformational technologies. This assessment will indicate where the agency may need to update its planning processes, its planning tools and upgrade its staff resources.

Page: 34  Chapter 6, Improving Planning Tools and Processes, points out resources that agencies can use for guidance on updating their planning models.  Chapter 7, Be Informed - Monitoring provides an outline of the performance measures and data sources an agency should consider as it seeks to keep aware of trends in land use and travel within its jurisdiction.  Chapter 8, Get Smart, Get the Expertise outlines options for getting the needed technological expertise.  Chapter 9, Be Nimble outlines how agencies should seek to create flexible plans and regulations that will enable staff to nimbly respond to new technologies and applications.

Page: 35 5 SELF-ASSESSMENT The first step in addressing the implications of transformational technologies for an agency’s planning process and products is for the agency to conduct a self-assessment of its readiness. Is the agency prepared to address the implications of new technologies for its regulatory framework, planning processes and tools? Where are the gaps? 5.1 THE SELF-ASSESSMENT PROCESS While there are no guidebooks that specifically address self-assessment for new technologies, there are several that an agency can consult in conducting its self-assessment:  NCHRP Report 829, Leadership Guide for Strategic Information Management for State Departments of Transportation (Harrison, Gordon, & Allen, 2016)  NCHRP REPORT 814, Data to Support Transportation Agency Business Needs: A Self- Assessment Guide (Sky Pond Partners and Iteris, 2015)  SHRP2-L06, Guide to Improving Capability for Systems Operations and Management (Parsons Brinckerhoff, Delcan, George Mason University, Housman and Associates, 2011). These guidebooks focus on specific topics, such as data and transportation systems management and operations (TSM&O), however the general frameworks for conducting a self-assessment can be extrapolated from them for use in assessing an agency’s readiness to address the planning implications of new technologies. The self-assessment should follow the general steps outlined below.  Phase 1: Preparation  Identify stakeholders  Develop agency’s vision for technology  Set agency’s technology goals  Phase 2: Conduct Assessment  Inventory current agency resources and capabilities  Identify gaps  Phase 3: Prepare Action Plan  Involve stakeholders  Set priorities  Set milestones  Phase 4: Monitor and Adjust  Monitor progress  Identify shortfalls  Adjust action plan

Page: 36 The remainder of this chapter focuses on the specific technology-related questions the agency may want to consider as it assesses the readiness of its planning policies, processes, tools, and products for addressing the implications of new technologies. 5.2 AGENCY OPERATIONS AND MANAGEMENT The agency should look at its staff and equipment resources and capabilities for dealing with technology questions.  Are staff and management sufficiently aware of the agency’s technology goals?  Does the agency have enough staff sufficiently trained in anticipated new technologies to address planning and policy questions as they come up?  Does agency staff have sufficient equipment?  Do staff members have easy access to sufficient outside resources (hired experts, private sector partners, etc.) to deal with technology questions?  Is agency staff keeping up with technology developments?  If the agency plans to employ new technologies in the delivery of governmental services, such as for a smart city:  Does the agency have enough information technology (IT) resources to take advantage of technology trends in improving delivery of government services?  Can the agency maintain the safety and security of its IT infrastructure? 5.3 REVIEW OF REGULATORY FRAMEWORK The regulatory framework of the agency (state laws, state and local codes, local ordinances, state and local rules and regulations) affects the day-to-day operation of the agency and its citizenry. A flexible but comprehensive regulatory framework supports agency staff in addressing day-to-day technology challenges. Questions an agency might ask itself as it reviews its readiness for new technologies include:  Licensing and Permits for New Technologies and Applications  Does the agency have an adequate licensing and permitting process for dealing with new technologies and novel applications of technology as they emerge? Are the regulations for licensing sufficiently broad and technology-agnostic so that future technologies can fall within the umbrella of the law? Would a new technology or application fall between the cracks?  Do the reporting requirements for licenses, permits, and fees provide the agency with sufficient and timely data to monitor trends?  Do the licensing, permit, and fee requirements promote the desired behavior on the part of technology deployers and the general public?

Page: 37  Motor Vehicle Code  Do state and local safety requirements, minimum following distances, and the rules of the road need to be updated under anticipated technology developments such as fully autonomous vehicles (AVs), e-scooters, and truck platooning?  Land Use Regulations  Are the automobile, truck, bicycle, and scooter parking (or stand) requirements in the agency’s zoning and other codes consistent with current technology and usage trends?  Are commercial loading zone and residential delivery box requirements adequate for current trends in technology, such as UAVs?  Are allowed land uses and noise limits by use type appropriate for current technology trends, such as UAVs? Are there noise limits appropriate for residential deliveries?  Do zoning and land use regulations address the transitioning of uses as technologies evolve? For example, AVs may reduce conventional parking needs, opening up parking structures for reuse by residential, industrial, and commercial uses.  Building Codes  Do building codes provide sufficient design, electrical, water, and other design loads for transitioning to new uses of structures that may be enabled by new technologies?  Do building codes provide for structure designs that are sufficiently flexible for multiple uses of the same structure that may be enabled by new technologies and consistent with agency policy?  Street and Highway Designs  Do the agency’s standard highway and street cross-sections and designs allocate sufficient curbside space and travel way for vehicles and pedestrians under anticipated usage patterns with new technologies such as e-bikes, e-scooters, CVs, and AVs?  Are the design loads, sight distances, and vertical/horizontal clearances for highways, streets, pavement and bridges sufficient for anticipated technology trends, such as truck platooning?  Do the agency’s signing and striping standards support the safe introduction of new technologies such as e-scooters and AVs?  Are curbside zones and markings adequate for the new parking and pick up/drop-off patterns occasioned by new technologies, like rideshare and AVs?  Do the agency’s designs support dynamic lane and curbside management?  Agency’s Knowledge of Trends  Does the agency have ready access to adequate, up-to-date monitoring and enforcement data to monitor and evaluate the adequacy of its existing regulations?  Is the data collected frequently enough that it can be used to quickly spot trends?  Are these new data sources employed in the agency’s day-to-day decision-making?

Page: 38 5.4 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMS Capital Improvement Programs (CIPs) and Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs) prioritize the agency’s planned public infrastructure investments over a five to seven-year period. Implementation of the CIP and TIP each year depends on funding. Considerations for CIP and TIP preparation related to readiness for transformational technologies include:  Do the CIP and TIP support anticipated technology trends?  Do the projects in the CIP and TIP as well as their designs support the rollout of desired new technologies by the public and/or private sector? For example, do the projects include sufficient right of way for broadband internet lines and/or for 5G cell towers?  Do the CIP and TIP take advantage of anticipated technology trends?  Do the projects in the CIP attempt to compete with or duplicate infrastructure already in place in the private sector?  Do projects in the CIP implement older technology in cases where newer technology better fulfills the goals of the project? 5.5 LAND DEVELOPMENT APPLICATIONS Land owners submit land development applications for local agency approval. Local agencies often ask state DOTs to advise them in the review. Local agencies then set conditions of approval, if the development is approved. Land development applications often include transportation infrastructure improvements. They are usually implemented by the private sector in a one- to 25-year time frame, depending on the size of the development. Changes in economic conditions can expedite or delay implementation. Questions to consider when state and local agencies review land development applications include:  Are the agency’s guidelines and requirements for land development review up to date with the new technologies?  Are the proposed state highway and street cross-sections in the development consistent with expected trends in usage patterns and technology in the short term or over the life of the development project?  Are the proposed state and local circulation infrastructure improvements consistent with expected trends in usage patterns and technology in the short term or over the life of the development project?  Are provisions in place to enable the state and local agency to monitor the effects of technological changes over the course of the development and update project requirements as necessary?

Page: 39 5.6 LONG-RANGE PLANNING Long-range planning generally consists of state, MPO, and local agency-prepared plans with stakeholder input for guiding the agency’s land development and infrastructure investments over a period of 25 years or more. Specific examples include a local agency’s comprehensive or general plan and the long-range transportation plans prepared by MPOs and state DOTs. The long-range plan will include elements (as needed) to address specific agency policies related to growth, housing, circulation, economic development, equity, the environment, and government services. Question to ask regarding long-range planning related to the agency’s readiness for transformational technologies include:  Have the agency’s goals and policies been expressed in the plan in such a way that they will remain valid under anticipated trends in technology?  Do the socioeconomic growth models and forecasts and travel demand models and travel forecasts upon which the plan is based reflect anticipated technology trends?  Are the housing, land use, and circulation elements in the long-range plan consistent with anticipated trends in technology?  Are provisions in place to monitor the impacts of new technologies on socioeconomic, land use, and travel demand trends?  Do the plans include intermediate checkpoints where monitoring may indicate the need to revisit the plans?

Page: 40 6 IMPROVE PLANNING TOOLS AND PROCESSES The conventional planning response to the uncertainties introduced by new technologies is to:  Update the models used to forecast future land use and travel behavior, and  Use the updated models to test various potential futures (scenario planning). In essence, agencies continue to plan as before, but now consider a host of new potential eventualities, providing decision-makers with tables of potential and possible results. Two reports are highlighted below that illustrate how land use and travel forecasting models can be updated to reflect the new technologies and how they can be employed in the planning process to explain potential future impacts of new technologies.  NCHRP Report 896 is a comprehensive guide to how different land use and travel modeling systems should be updated and employed to evaluate connected, automated, and fully autonomous vehicles (CAV). Their focus is on CAVs but much of what they recommend can be extrapolated to other technologies. The NCHRP report focuses on the approaches to updating models without identifying specific values for parameters (Zmud, et al., 2018).  The Florida DOT’s guidance to its MPOs suggests specific values for model parameters and identifies specific future scenarios to be tested. Its focus is also on CAVs, but its recommendations can be extrapolated to other technologies (FDOT Office of Policy Planning, 2018). 6.1 NCHRP REPORT 896 – UPDATING FORECASTING MODELS NCHRP Report 896 states that connected and fully autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are likely to affect travel demand modeling through lower travel costs, increased safety (travel time reliability), increased highway capacity, and reduced impedances for trip-making. It points out the challenge to modeling posed by the uncertainty of the timeline for adoption of CAVs. It provides lists of travel model parameters that should be considered for modification under each modeling systems (trip-based, activity-based, and strategic models). It proposes various ways agencies may employ the models to address uncertainty.  Assumption-based scenario planning, which bundles the assumptions into a variety of scenarios, is the simplest. The agency puts together plausible combinations of assumptions and runs the analysis on each scenario. The results for the various scenarios are reported without assigning a specific probability to each scenario.  More complex approaches, such as “robust decision-making” stress test the proposed infrastructure improvements under a variety of potential future scenarios.

Page: 41  The dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) approach recognizes that agencies can make course corrections as the future unfolds. More details can be found in the report. The greatest challenge identified by NCHRP Report 896 is communicating the uncertainty to decision-makers. The report stresses the importance of using the right language to communicate the results. 6.2 FLORIDA DOT MPO GUIDANCE The FDOT MPO Guidebook recommends that its metropolitan planning organizations:  Adopt performance measures consistent with agency goals for measuring the impacts of new technologies.  Use scenario planning to forecast the impacts of connected, fully autonomous, electric vehicles on the highway system and infrastructure needs. They identify six scenarios for testing:  Slow roll, minimal plausible change  Managed autonomous lane network  Ultimate driver assist, ultra-connectivity  Niche service growth (high AV/CV in certain cases)  Competing fleets (automated fleets compete)  RoboTransit (automated mobility-as-a-service)  Modify the travel demand model inputs according to each scenario  Increase capacities by area type and facility type  Decrease terminal times for central business districts and fringe areas.  Increase auto trip generation as appropriate.  Manually shift some transit trips to AV mode.  Flatten the home-based work friction factor curves to promote longer commute trips. FDOT notes that “It still may not yet be possible to determine the impact of ACES (automated, autonomous, connected, electric, shared vehicles) in terms of setting and measuring specific performance measures with any degree of certainty for the foreseeable future. But all that means, as FHWA noted in Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles, is that performance-based planning in an age of ACES requires implementing projects based on estimated outcomes coupled with repetitively and regularly evaluating results as new data and data sources come online that are pertinent to ACES performance measures. This implies a de-emphasis of precise predictions and suggests that ACES metrics might be best thought of, at least initially, as ‘action brackets.’”

Page: 42 7 BE INFORMED - MONITORING For an agency to be informed, it must continuously measure and monitor land use, parking, and travel activity trends within its jurisdiction. The massive data collection efforts many agencies make once every few years when they update their comprehensive plans or long-range transportation plans will not be timely enough to catch the implications of transformational technologies for their planning programs. A more timely and cost-effective approach to measuring and monitoring trends is needed. This chapter discusses establishing an agency land use and transportation activity monitoring program and identifying metrics of change for monitoring and evaluating the significance of transformational technologies on land use and travel demand trends. This chapter also identifies the information needs for such a monitoring program, describes traditional methods of obtaining the data, and suggests a few innovative options that agencies might consider for more cost- effectively obtaining the data. Metrics for measuring and monitoring an agency’s success adapting to and deploying transformational technologies should be tied to the agency’s goals for socioeconomic development, regulation, safety, mobility, sustainability, equity, accessibility, and other relevant agency goals. Each agency should customize its selected metrics of change to support its own goals and policies. The example metrics described in this chapter should be considered a starting point for each agency’s own efforts working with its stakeholders to select and apply its own metrics of change. 7.1 RESOURCES Transformational technologies will impact growth, land uses, location, parking, and travel demand. Measuring the impacts of each will require its own set of metrics. There are several resources that public agencies can consult for selecting metrics relevant to their goals.  FHWA has prepared a transportation performance measurement guidebook (the TPM Guidebook, available at https://www.tpmtools.org/guidebook ) which provides guidance on the development of performance measures. They have also established a webpage for transportation performance measurement. FHWA has identified transportation system metrics that MPOs and state DOTs must periodically report to FHWA, per the FAST Act. The FHWA-identified metrics are passenger travel time reliability, truck travel time reliability, peak hour delay, percent of non-single occupant vehicle person travel, and emissions reductions. (Federal Highway Administration, 2018)  The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published a Guide to Sustainable Transportation Performance Measures with some land use planning aspects (ICF International, 2011). In its guide, EPA identifies metrics of transit accessibility, bicycle and pedestrian mode share, vehicle miles traveled per capita, carbon intensity, mixed land uses, transportation affordability, benefits by income group, land consumption, bicycle and pedestrian activity and safety, bicycle and pedestrian level of service, average

Page: 43 vehicle occupancy, and transit productivity. The EPA guide goes on to describe how these measures can be employed in long range plans, programming, and performance monitoring.  Several other state DOTs have published their own guides on transportation and/or land use performance measurement. For example, see Oregon DOT’s website (Kase, 2019).  A UC Davis white paper, Measuring Land Use Performance: Policy, Plan, and Outcome, researched various land use planning performance measures. The paper suggests for further study the following measures: agricultural land use conversion; change in acres of undeveloped designations; ratio of housing supply to demand; changes in population density; residential permits issued; changes in population; and ratios of acres of commercial, industrial, public acres to residential units. The paper also identifies various measures of accessibility, centrality, density, neighborhood mix, transit accessibility and pedestrian accessibility to assess urban form and transportation accessibility (Sciara, 2015). 7.2 CANDIDATE METRICS AND INFORMATION NEEDS A candidate set of metrics for measuring and monitoring the effects of transformational technologies is provided below to help agencies get started developing their own set of metrics to support their goals. Information needs are identified along with methods for obtaining the needed monitoring data. Exhibit 8 Metrics for Monitoring Impacts of New Technologies Impact Candidate Metrics Sources of Information Growth Population, Employment, Tax Receipts (Sales Tax, Property Tax, Transient Occupancy Tax, other taxes), Licenses and Permits Metropolitan Planning Organization, State Finance Department, US Census, State Employment Department, Local and State Collection Agencies, Permit/License Issuing agencies and departments Land Use and location Permits Pulled Issuing agency and department Early Indicators of Code and Plan Problems Complaints, code enforcement requests, conditional use permits, zoning variance requests, comprehensive plan amendments Agency planning/community development department Parking Curb, lot, and loading zone parking utilization, price, average stay Operator records, video and/or volunteer monitoring, purchased data. Travel Demand Daily ridership and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by mode of travel Service providers, purchased data, field sensors.

Page: 44 7.2.1 Metrics of Growth Changes in population, employment, sales tax receipts, property tax receipts, transient occupancy tax receipts, permits pulled, and licenses issued are metrics that an agency might consider for monitoring various aspects of its jurisdiction’s growth. Since each metric measures only one dimension of growth, multiple measures are recommended to ensure that the agency obtains a better picture of its growth trends. To measure the impacts of transformational technologies, it is necessary to have frequent updates of growth trends. The metrics selected by the agency should include a few that are updated at least annually.  Population is a direct measurement of growth for a jurisdiction. Unfortunately, it measures only residents of the jurisdiction and is updated only once every 10 years by the US Census; however, state agencies provide annual estimates of growth. Population measures must be supplemented by other more frequently updated measures of activity in the jurisdiction, such as employment and various tax receipts.  Employment is reported on a regular basis to state and federal taxing agencies. Changes in employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code are indicators of changes in growth by industry class. Employment by NAICS code within the jurisdiction can therefore provide a timely measure of changes in growth trends for the jurisdiction.  Sales tax, property tax, transient occupancy tax, and other tax receipts, collected quarterly or annually by the agency, can be very timely measures of the growth of different economic sectors within the jurisdiction.  Licenses issued and permits pulled within the jurisdiction can be a particularly timely measure of growth. Obtaining the Needed Information Annual population and employment estimates for a jurisdiction are usually obtainable from the appropriate state agency. The US Census provides population data. Tax receipts, licenses, and permits are already logged by the issuing jurisdiction. The key to making this information useful for monitoring impacts of transformational technologies on growth is digitizing the data in a searchable database accessible to planners within the agency as well as regional and state planners. 7.2.2 Metrics of Land Use and Location Changes Annual and quarterly changes in the numbers of permits pulled can give the agency an indication of land use and location trends. Permits pulled by usage type and by subarea of the jurisdiction give planners immediate information on land use and location trends. Building permits indicate upcoming land use changes. Occupancy permits indicate completed land use changes.

Page: 45 Permits for logistics facilities should be tracked separately to enable detection of the impacts of transformational technologies on logistics system needs. The permit data may be converted into annual changes in the ratio of residential units to commercial acres or the conversion of acres of agricultural land uses to urban land uses, or other measures that match the agency’s land use planning goals. 7.2.2.1 Obtaining the Needed Information While all agencies currently keep records of permits and licenses issued, digitizing them and placing them in a searchable database accessible to agency planners (as well as regional and state planners) is what makes them useful for monitoring the effects of transformational technologies on land use and location. 7.2.3 Early Indicators of Problems with Current Code and Plans While permits pulled indicate trends in land use and location for a jurisdiction; complaints, code enforcement requests, conditional use permits, zoning variance requests, and comprehensive plan amendment requests can be early indicators of weaknesses in the agency’s current codes and planning documents. A surge in such complaints and requests may point to cases where transformational technologies are causing problems not well treated by the agency’s current plans and codes. 7.2.3.1 Obtaining the Needed Information Each jurisdiction already collects and files complaints and requests. Digitization of complaints and requests in a searchable database accessible to planners at the agency is key to making this information available for obtaining early warning on the impacts of transformational technologies. 7.2.4 Metrics of Parking Demand Changes Transformational technologies will impact passenger vehicle, truck, bicycle, and scooter parking needs and freight loading zone needs, so it is highly desirable to monitor parking usage trends by hour of day and day of week, both on- and off-street for these vehicle types. Useful parking metrics are peak parking occupancy (percent utilization) and average duration or turnover. For passenger and freight pickup and drop-off services, it is useful to monitor percent utilization and average duration for passenger and freight loading zones. While parking studies have typically focused on passenger car parking, transformational technologies have increased the need to monitor curbside pickup and drop-off passenger and freight activity as well as bicycle and scooter parking within the public right of way.

Page: 46 7.2.4.1 Obtaining the Needed Information Parking usage data has historically required manual data collection methods, making these data impracticable to obtain for continuous monitoring purposes. There are various regulatory and technology options an agency might employ to facilitate more frequent and extensive collection of parking usage data.  Require as a condition of permit approval that the property owner monitor and report monthly the on- and off-street parking usage of the project by autos, trucks, bicycles, and scooters (as appropriate for the particular land use).  Require as a condition of approval that the property owner install on site an automated parking occupancy monitoring system that sends data over the internet to an agency- accessible database.  Require as a condition for licensing the operation within the jurisdiction of a new technology service (such as car sharing, bicycle sharing, scooter sharing, automated package delivery, etc.) that the operator regularly report on the parking locations, times, and durations for its vehicles or its deliveries.  Solicit community and business group volunteers directly or through crowdsourcing apps to conduct periodic parking surveys of selected streets, sidewalks, lots, residences and businesses.  Install within the public right of way automated curbside and public parking lot monitoring systems (video cameras, magnetic detectors, etc.) that report back to the agency.  Purchase vehicle/bicycle/scooter/delivery vehicle GPS and/or cell phone geolocation data indicating the general locations, duration, and periods of the day when the device is stationary. The data would have to be scrubbed of personally identifiable information (PII) and aggregated to the zonal level before it could be transmitted to the agency. Trends in parking zone activity would be monitored to identify changes in parking patterns. 7.2.5 Metrics of Travel Demand Changes Metrics of travel demand changes should include metrics of general travel activity as well as travel activity metrics specific to the new services being offered by mobility as a service (MaaS) providers. Travel activity metrics for monitoring trends include daily ridership by mode of travel and MaaS service as well as daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT)and person-miles traveled (PMT) by mode and MaaS service. The agency may monitor ridership and VMT trends for specific facilities or subareas of the jurisdiction and use those trends as indicators of overall changes in travel behavior. For updating travel demand forecasting models, specific trip information is needed: origin, destination, time of day, modes available, and mode selected, plus cost and travel time for the selected mode and for the other available modes.

Page: 47 7.2.5.1 Obtaining the Needed Information Public service providers and highway agencies usually already report ridership and VMT trends for their services and facilities on an annual basis. The data are often also readily available on a more frequent basis. It is more difficult to obtain similar data from private mobility service providers. The agency has various regulatory and technological options.  Agencies may try to persuade MaaS providers (vendors) that it is in their long-term interest to cooperate, promising the confidentiality of the vendor-supplied data. Some vendors have begun to see the value of voluntarily providing these data to public agencies.  Agencies may use their regulatory powers to obtain the information as a condition of obtaining a permit, development approval, or a business license.  With appropriate supporting legislation, agencies may tax the activity and obtain the usage information as part of a business’s tax return.  Agencies may purchase the usage data either directly from the vendor, or indirectly through a third-party data aggregator.  Agency staff or contractors may act as potential customers for the new service and query the service for pricing data for specific trip requests through the vendor’s internet application.  Agencies may conduct field surveys of activity at random locations and times within its jurisdiction. Citizen and business group volunteers may be recruited over the internet to supplement the staff’s efforts.  For travel demand modeling purposes an agency may regularly survey its residents over the internet to obtain usage patterns and prices for all modes and MaaS services, and to observe trends. This survey could be automated and repeated semi-annually or annually through an internet application.

Page: 48 8 GET SMART, GET THE EXPERTISE Expertise in the new technologies is a weakness for many traditionally trained land use and transportation planners. A particular weakness of the current generation of planning professionals is in the application of big data methods to answering planning questions. There are several options for acquiring the needed expertise. They range from requesting volunteers to hiring experts to establishing formal partnerships with educational institutions and technology companies. In addition, an agency might consider university and trade school partnership options for building up the expertise of the local private sector workforce. 8.1.1 Option 1: Bring in Other Agencies with Other Expertise Agencies are already accustomed to working with a wide variety of state, regional, and local agencies as well as local institutions and operating agencies through the metropolitan planning process. However, successful land use and transportation planning for transformational technologies requires an agency to reach out to a broader range of divisions within the same agency (e.g. fire, police, maintenance, IT), as well as institutional and jurisdictional partners with additional technical expertise that might not ordinarily be extensively involved in the agency’s planning process. Transportation planning for implementation of new technologies in the field should involve first responders, fire, enforcement, utilities, and other non-traditional participants in the planning process. The challenge will be getting these new participants educated on the planning process and institutionally motivated to actively contribute and to implement the resulting recommendations. The manager of the planning process needs to identify something of tangible value to the new participants for participating in the planning process and convince them of those benefits. 8.1.2 Option 2: Invite Outside Experts to Sit on Advisory Committees Public agencies are already well aware that involving the appropriate stakeholders on various advisory bodies is critical to the successful outcome of the land use and transportation planning process. Agencies currently involve the following in their planning process: residents, citizen groups, business groups, transit agencies, and other relevant jurisdictions. However, new technologies introduce other stakeholders that an agency may not have previously considered relevant to their planning process. A commonly used option for obtaining outside expertise for the planning process is to invite outside experts to sit on one or more planning advisory committees. This is a very low-cost option

Page: 49 for obtaining the outside expertise, however the agency will find that it may need a greater commitment of time than can be obtained from volunteers participating on advisory committees. 8.1.2.1 Challenge: Who to Invite? Selection of the non-traditional stakeholders to involve in the planning process will vary according to the agency’s new technology goals for its land use and/or transportation plan.  Planning for innovative curbside management technologies and advanced traffic management strategies may greatly benefit from the involvement of police, fire, transit, maintenance, and private sector motor carrier, delivery, ride hailing, bike sharing and car sharing services.  Planning for electric vehicles may greatly benefit from private developer, vehicle manufacturer, and utility provider participation.  Larger private sector technology companies may provide their own transportation services for their employees in competition or in coordination with public services.  Access to adequate housing and transportation services affects location choice for private sector technology companies. 8.1.2.2 Challenge: Identifying Private Sector Representatives While it is relatively easy to identify representatives from public agencies to participate in the planning process, it is difficult to identify suitable representatives for the private sector. The private sector is a diverse and competitive group of businesses with conflicting goals and perspectives. For example, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has 52 companies permitted to test fully autonomous vehicles on California roads (California Department of Motor Vehicles, 2019). Some of these companies are farther along and prefer regulations that confirm their selected approach to automating vehicles. Others are not so far along and desire the flexibility to develop options that may increase their ability to compete. One representative from one of these 52 companies cannot be expected to reasonably or accurately reflect the views of their competitors, much less the entire private sector. One approach is to go to the various private sector trade groups to ask them for advice on contacting representatives who can participate in the agency’s planning process and provide a private sector perspective. The private sector has established an association for addressing public policy issues. It is the “Partnership for Transportation Innovation and Opportunity” (PTIO). It is a new 501(c)(6) nonprofit policy group to present the private sector’s perspectives on transformational technologies to policymakers and to the public. Members include Ford, Toyota, Daimler, Waymo, Uber, Lyft, FedEx, and the American Trucking Association (Wiggers, 2018).

Page: 50 A few additional examples of private sector, technology-oriented trade and lobbying groups in the United States are given below. An agency might start with this initial list of contacts but should also try to identify additional trade groups, especially local ones that may better meet the agency’s needs.  Internet Applications Trade Groups  The Computer & Communications Industry Association (https://www.ccianet.org), a lobbying group that represents Google, eBay, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Netflix, Intel, Samsung, and other tech companies.  The Mobile Marketing Association (https://www.mmaglobal.com/about), an association of MaaS enterprises and businesses using mobile marketing applications (marketers, sellers, enablers, agencies, and carriers).  Vehicle Technology Trade Groups  The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (https://autoalliance.org), an association of 12 of the largest car manufacturers in the United States.  The Self-Driving Coalition for Safer Streets (http://www.selfdrivingcoalition.org), a lobbying group formed by Ford, Lyft, Uber, Volvo Cars, and Waymo to work with lawmakers, regulators, and the public to promote self-driving (fully autonomous) vehicles.  The Light Electric Vehicle Association (LEVA) (http://www.levassociation.com), an association of e-bike and e-scooter retailers, dealers, distributors, manufacturers, and suppliers.  Infrastructure Technologies Trade Groups  The National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) (https://www.nema.org), a trade association of electrical equipment manufacturers in the United States. The Intelligent Transportation Society of America (ITS America) (https://www.itsa.org), an association of automotive manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, public agencies, and research organizations.  Logistics Technologies Trade Groups  The American Trucking Associations (https://www.trucking.org) a federation of 50 affiliated state trucking associations and industry-related conferences and councils.  The Association of American Railroads (https://www.aar.org), an industry trade group representing major freight railroads of North America.  The American Association of Port Authorities (http://www.aapa-ports.org) an association of public port authorities in the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America.  The International Air Transport Association (IATA) (https://www.iata.org), a trade association for the world’s commercial airlines  The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (https://www.icao.int), a United Nations agency to manage the administration and governance of the Convention on International Civil Aviation.

Page: 51 The agency might also consider modifying its traditional stakeholder involvement process to include one-on-one meetings with private sector people who cannot volunteer time for an advisory committee in a more private setting where they may be able to more fully explain their perspectives. 8.1.3 Option 3: Hiring and/or Training Staff The manager of the planning process might consider hiring the needed expert as an added staff person. The manager might send existing staff out for the necessary training. However, this may take time and preserving the acquired knowledge through staff turnovers is difficult. University extension courses may be an option. The manager might consider sending staff to technical conferences like:  The annual Consumer Electronics Showcase (CES) put on by the Consumer Technology Association (https://www.ces.tech/About-CES.aspx ),  The ITS America Annual Meeting (https://www.itsa.org ), and  The annual Automated Vehicles Symposium (AVS) co-sponsored by the Transportation Research Board and the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (http://www.automatedvehiclessymposium.org ). 8.1.4 Option 4: Partnering with Educational Institutions The manager might consider partnering with local educational and research institutions to obtain the staff training and technology expertise not present within its own staff. The temporary employment of student interns from the educational institution may quickly fill gaps in the agency’s technological knowledge. In addition to building up their own staff expertise, agencies might consider partnering with local universities and trade schools to create opportunities for private sector workforce development. For example, as part of the USDOT’s Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployment Program, the Tampa, FL site deployment team is partnering with a local auto repair trade school to have the students install on-board units in study vehicles. After this program, these students will have experience that few others in the country have. 8.1.5 Option 5: Hire an Outside Expert The agency might hire an outside consultant to be its on-call expert for a set period of time. The challenge with this option is its cost and the time and effort needed to select the expert. Once the contract is over, the expertise is no longer available to the agency.

Page: 52 8.1.6 Option 6: Partnering with the Private Sector Public agencies have a great deal of experience contracting with the private sector to construct public projects. Agencies also have a great deal of experience regulating private land development and the commercial provision of services to the general public. Partnering with the private sector as an equal partner, however, is a new challenge. There are various public-private partnership (PPP) options available, depending on the extent of financial commitment desired by each party. The challenge to achieving a successful PPP is identifying meaningful shared objectives for the partners. Identifying a dependable revenue stream for the private sector partner is often key to obtaining private sector participation. Establishing a firewall between the PPP and changes in elected officials is often important. 8.1.6.1 Traditional Public Private Partnerships There is a wide variety of traditional options for involving the private sector in public sector plans and projects (Sabol & Puentes, 2014). They are described briefly below.  Conventional Public Project Build  The public sector agency originates, funds, designs, operates and maintains the project. The public agency hires a private sector contractor to build the project to the agency’s specifications. The agency owns the resulting facility.  Most state and local highway improvement projects are examples of this approach to private sector involvement.  Design/Build, Design/Build/Finance, and Design/Build/Finance/Operate  These options fall in the category of PPPs that have been proposed to expedite public project delivery when the public agency faces funding constraints. They increase involvement of the private sector in what is still ultimately a public project. The public agency originates the project and owns the resulting facility.  Many privately-operated toll roads are examples of this PPP approach to private sector involvement in a public project.  Permits, Licenses, Franchises  The private sector applies for permission to build and/or operate a building or service open to the public. The legal basis for this regulation is the protection of public safety.  The private sector originates, funds, builds, and operates the project according to the conditions of the permit, license, or franchise. The private sector collects the revenue and must maintain its facilities and vehicles. The public agency may collect fees, designate a territory for the service and set operating hours, minimum wages, working conditions, etcetera.  Permits, licenses, and franchises are already commonly employed by public agencies to regulate private land development, utilities (electricity, water, sewer, internet, cable TV) and private commercial transportation services (trucks, taxis, etc.).

Page: 53  The review and conditioned approval of subdivision maps and planned unit developments are examples of this option for interacting with the private sector.  Some agencies have extended the permitting/licensing process to the regulation of car sharing, ride hailing, and bicycle/e-scooter sharing services (See San Francisco and New York City, among others, for example). Several are looking into it. 8.1.6.2 Applications of PPP for Transformational Technologies Since the private sector often has much greater expertise in designing and operating many of the new technologies, simply permitting or licensing the private sector operation often may achieve the agency’s planning objectives. In most large, urban areas, the agency need not push the private sector, through a PPP, to do what market forces would have done anyway. Public private partnerships come in handy when the public agency wants a particular technology deployed sooner than would be supported by market forces alone. This can be an important approach for smaller urban areas and rural areas to obtain technologies earlier than the market would ordinarily allow. For example, if ridesharing services do not provide adequate coverage of the rural county, the county might enter into a PPP with a local taxi company to provide the vehicles with drivers and a transportation network company (TNC) with the web application to provide the desired web-accessible ridesharing service. The rationales for a public agency to enter into more elaborate public private partnerships are:  Debt constraints on the public agency to finance the desired public projects  The public agency seeks to expedite private sector deployment of a project not typically a central function of the public agency  The private sector has greater expertise with the technologies, materials, and management techniques appropriate for the project If a public agency anticipates going into a formal public-private partnership to fund, design, build, and/or operate specific technologies, there are certain steps the public agency should take to maximize the likelihood of a successful outcome satisfactory to all partners:  Make sure there is a strong legal framework in place at the state level for public private partnerships (PPPs)  Pick the highest-priority projects based on agency goals  Pick projects that are politically smart (have a strong consensus that will survive changes in elected officials)  Ensure that the PPP agreement aligns well with private sector needs (a dependable revenue stream)  Ensure that the revenue streams for the project are durable and resilient  Employ a clear and transparent partnership process  Ensure that the team responsible of implementing PPP decisions is empowered to do so  Actively engage stakeholders in the PPP process and implementation  Monitor and learn from prior PPP projects

Page: 54 8.1.6.3 Less-Formal Options Formal public private partnerships involve the partners entering into a legally enforceable agreement designating obligations of each partner to the others, the sharing of risks, and the sharing of revenues. In states with the appropriate enabling legislation, public agencies may also enter into formal joint powers agreements between themselves that designate the powers they will share with a new agency, the obligations of each member agency, and the operation of the new agency created by the agreement. Special districts to provide specific government services (such as a hospital or utility district) may be formed through the delegation of selected state powers to the special districts. Less-formal partnering options are available when the partners wish to work together to achieve a common goal, but they do not wish to legally commit themselves to specific funds for the project or to take on specific risks. These less-formal options may be called alliances or coalitions. The shared objectives of an alliance or a coalition may be documented in a memorandum of understanding (MOU). MOUs indicate a desire by the signatories to pursue a common line of action. They are usually carefully worded to avoid their interpretation as a legally enforceable contract between the parties.

Page: 55 9 BE NIMBLE Public agencies need to be as nimble as the private sector in dealing with new technologies. Agencies should adopt flexible policies, plans, and regulations that can be adapted as technology changes and new applications show up on the street. The agency should be prepared to quickly and frequently adapt its plans, regulations, and procedures to rapidly changing conditions. The days when an agency could safely wait 10 years to update its long-range comprehensive plan are gone. At the very least, an agency needs to monitor current trends and update its plans, policies, codes, and ordinances every few years as new technologies enter the marketplace and others drop out. Through it all, it is critical that the agency has a clear vision of its mobility, safety, equity and environmental goals and how it expects new technologies to contribute to achieving those goals. Otherwise, the agency will soon get off track and get lost as it attempts to adapt to new developments in technology. 9.1 TECHNOLOGY-AGNOSTIC REGULATIONS State and local agencies are well experienced at writing technology-specific regulations. There are numerous style guides and resources available to assist staff in crafting regulations. The state league of cities in each state often provides guidance on ordinance writing for that state. Examples of state specific guidance from Oregon and Texas are included in the list below.  The American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) produces guides on best practices and model legislation. https://www.aamva.org/best-practices-and-model- legislation  The National League of Cities (NLC) provides Model Code for Municipalities, https://www.nlc.org/resource/model-code-for-municipalities-0  The Open Law Library provides national and state specific style guides at openlawlib.org, http://www.openlawlib.org/resources/legislative-drafting-guides  The PlannersWeb provides guidance tailored to planners such as, “Drafting Clear Ordinances: Do’s and Don’ts,” at http://plannersweb.com/2010/04/drafting-clear- ordinances-dos-and-donts  League of Oregon Cities, Manual for Ordinance Drafting and Maintenance, December 2017. http://www.orcities.org/Portals/17/Library/ManualforOrdinanceDraftingandMaintenance1 2-15-17.pdf  Texas Municipal League, Ordinance Drafting, 2005, https://www.tml.org/legal_pdf/OrdDrafting.pdf

Page: 56 The unique challenge of transformational technologies is to word the regulations in a way that they can still deliver the agency’s desired result (mobility, equity, safety, etc.) even as new technologies come out. The ideal regulations are technology-agnostic, and performance based. While specific guides are not yet available to cover all the technologies likely to be deployed in the coming years, there are two guides out that are tailored to regulating specific transformational technologies:  The National League of Cities (NLC), Autonomous Vehicle Pilots Across America, https://www.nlc.org/resource/autonomous-vehicle-pilots-across-america (National League of Cities, 2018)  The National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) Policy 2018, Guidelines for the Regulation and Management of Shared Active Transportation, Version 1, July 2018. https://nacto.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NACTO-Shared-Active-Transportation- Guidelines.pdf (National Association of City Transportation Officials, 2018) The NLC guide deals with establishing rules and regulations for pilot testing of fully autonomous vehicles. The NACTO guide deals with establishing regulations for shared active transportation vehicles (bicycles and scooters). To the extent possible, the language of the regulations should attempt to be “performance oriented” as opposed to targeting a specific technology. For example, the agency might consider if its safety goals can be met by writing the regulation to apply to all vehicles of a certain gross vehicle weight range and maximum speed range, rather than specifying that the ordinance applies to e-bikes. As another example, the state agency might consider rewriting its vehicle code to prohibit vehicles from following each other at “closer than their safe-stopping distance,” rather than saying vehicles can’t follow “closer than 200 feet.” The key constraint on flexible language though is “enforceability.” Broadly worded regulations are useless if they cannot be understood and enforced by a reasonable enforcement officer and a judge in a court of law. 9.2 REGULATING THROUGH INCENTIVES Another consideration the public agency might take into account in setting fees and writing regulations would be to enlist the private sector’s own monetary drivers in achieving the agency’s desired mobility, safety, equity, and environmental goals. For example, if an agency is concerned about the private sector underinvesting in certain areas of its jurisdiction (low-income or rural areas for example), the agency might consider creating a sliding scale of license fees that offer “rebates” for the desired behavior. The trick is to find the cut point where the fees achieve the desired behavior. It may take some trial and error to find the least cost point. Staff will need the data to monitor the results in real time and staff will need the legislative flexibility to adjust the fees until the desired behavior is achieved.

Page: 57 9.3 FLEXIBLE PLANS While the trend has been to develop more comprehensive and specific exhaustively analyzed long-range transportation and land use plans, the rapid evolution of technologies suggests that we really are uncertain as to what the socioeconomics, land use development, and transportation system will be like in 20 years. Scenario planning can be used to identify the likely spread of performance, but in the end, all of the uncertainty is often translated into a particular plan with a specific list of future land uses and transportation improvements. What is needed is more technologically robust and flexible plans. Agencies might take two steps to achieving more flexible and technologically robust plans: 1. Be less technology specific in the 20-year vision. a. Instead of saying a six-lane freeway is needed in the corridor, say instead that a high-speed combination of technologies and facilities will be needed to deliver about 150,000 person trips a day in the corridor. Then leave the specifics to later planning efforts, closer to the project delivery date. b. Instead of saying 150 acres of half-acre single-family homes should be built in 20 years, say instead that the corridor will need to provide residences for 1,000 people, supporting services, and jobs for 600 people in the next 20 years. 2. Build checkpoints or trigger points into the plan to act as course correction points. For example, the plan might say “When development reaches 25% of the forecast, the plan should be revisited to determine if the original land uses, transportation facilities, and technologies are still sufficient and relevant.” Or, the plan might say, “When congestion reaches a certain level in the corridor, then project planning needs to begin in the corridor.” Specify the desired performance both for land use and the transportation system, rather than specifying the solution. 9.4 EMPOWERED STAFF In order to respond as rapidly as technologies evolve, staff will need a certain amount of authority to adapt fees and adjust rules implementing regulations. The legislative authority sets the vision and overall goals and the limits within which staff can act. Staff can then adapt within the range allowed by the legislative authority. This flexible authority is especially valuable when staff is first testing out different regulatory and monetary incentives to achieve the agency’s goals. 9.5 WITHIN AGENCY SILO-BUSTING AND IN-REACH Many agencies may fine that internal roadblocks to data sharing are just as great as those to data sharing with external agencies. Departments within agencies may operate as distinct “silos” within the agency. Reaching inwards to other departments may be valuable in opening up data sharing opportunities.

Page: 58 10 EXAMPLE AGENCY RESPONSES Several public agencies in the United States have begun to develop technology transition plans for dealing with transformational technologies in land use and the transportation system. Several state DOTs are in the process of developing plans for dealing with the implications of fully autonomous vehicles; for example: Missouri DOT (Missouri Department of Transportation, 2019), Delaware DOT (Barnes, Turkel, Moreland, & Pragg, 2017), Iowa DOT (McGehee, Brewer, Schwarz, & Smith, 2016), and Texas DOT (Kockelman, Boyles, Stone, Fagnant, & Pateet, 2017), among others. FHWA-funded field tests of CV equipment are being conducted in Tampa, FL; New York City, NY; Columbus, OH; and Wyoming (US Department of Transportation, 2018). Some agencies have reacted quickly to address, on a piecemeal basis, the less desirable impacts of transformational technologies (e.g., city reactions to dockless bike litter). Others have begun a more comprehensive process comparing the benefits and impacts of transformational technologies to the agency’s goals and objectives. They have identified performance measures and data needs and are currently developing regulations to fill the gaps. A few representative examples of these efforts are highlighted below. 10.1 VIRGINIA DOT CONNECTED AND AUTOMATED VEHICLE PROGRAM PLAN Virginia DOT published its plan for connected and fully autonomous vehicles (CAV) in late 2017 (Lingham, 2018). This plan establishes VDOTs vision to “capitalize on the safety and operational benefits of CAV,” and to position Virginia “as the most attractive state for industry to deploy, test, operate, and evolve CAV products and services.” The goals and objectives of VDOT’s CAV program are:  Reduce crashes and fatalities on Virginia roadways by improving safety measures.  Improve mobility to reduce delay, increase system reliability, and provide more efficient use of physical infrastructure.  Reduce infrastructure investments through efficiencies enabled by the conversion of vehicles that are connected and fully autonomous.  Enhance traveler information.

Page: 59 VDOT’s CAV plan anticipates the deployment of CAV technology and applications over the next 20 years and focuses on “preparing the organization for the future, rather than prioritizing individual projects or development efforts.” Its recommended actions are:  Organizational Actions  Identify and designate roles and responsibilities for the CAV Program Manager, CAV deployment lead positions and other key staff  Launch the CAV program plan department wide to internally promote and support the creation of a culture of innovation and proactive integration of CAV technologies into plans, programs and projects  Coordinate and convene executive steering committee for the CAV Program  Technical Actions and Activities  Focus on development and early deployment activities  Demonstrate the capabilities and benefits of CAVs  Integrate CAV strategies into long-term planning and programming processes  Develop a data architecture plan and strategy  External Partnership-Related Actions  Track technology advances that will impact the CAV program  Develop an external stakeholder outreach, communication, and coordination strategy that is coordinated with the VDOT CAV strategy The plan also recommends development of a long-term implementation plan, establishment of deployment guidance for stakeholders, and the development of CAV standards and specifications. 10.2 TEXAS DOT AGENCY STRATEGIC PLAN The Texas Transportation Commission adopted TxDOT’s 2019-2023 Strategic Plan in May 2018 (Texas Department of Transportation, 2018). The Strategic Plan identifies the following actions related to transformational technologies.  Establish a statewide integrated traffic management system.  Improve traffic information for more efficient freight movement by developing connected freight corridors.  Coordinate with local transportation entities to ensure the efficiency of the overall transportation system to facilitate movement of people and goods. In addition, the Strategic Plan calls for TxDOT to:  Work with cities and MPOs to identify smart technology solutions that improve traffic management while helping to solve city mobility challenges.  Compliment the federally- funded Texas Connected Freight Corridor project with additional resources to greatly advance freight information, safety, and movement.

Page: 60 10.3 LOS ANGELES TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY The City of Los Angeles adopted its strategic plan for transportation technology in 2016 (Hand, 2016). This plan identified the following goals, policies, and actions focused on three concepts: data as a service, mobility as a service, and infrastructure as a service. The outline below highlights the goals, policies, and actions in the strategic plan, providing examples of how a local agency might address the planning and policy implications of transformational technologies.  Goal #1: Build a solid data foundation  Policies 1. Define what can be shared. 2. Adopt privacy principles. 3. Develop a standard data sharing agreement. 4. Create a regional blueprint for system integration. 5. Establish design guidelines for digital infrastructure.  Short Term Actions (0-2 years) 1. Inventory available data. 2. Create a wish list for other data sets and prioritize. 3. Implement a data analysis bench contract and grow internal analytics capacity. 4. Develop a roadmap for new data resources.  Mid-Term Actions (3-5 years) 1. Make the data easier to use with data dictionaries and other tools. 2. Adopt APIs + other tools to streamline sharing.  Long-Term Actions (6+ years) 1. Leverage data to manage a more flexible transportation system with public and private service providers.  Goal #2. Leverage tech plus design for a better transportation experience  Policies 1. Create ATSAC 3.0. (The city’s central traffic signal control system). 2. Enforce congestion-busting rules for safety. 3. Adopt a customer bill of rights and metrics for transportation happiness. 4. Require corridor and building designs that serve multiple modes. 5. Eliminate parking minimums. 6. Rethink parking garages. 7. Stop widening roads.  Short Term Actions (0-2 years) 1. Code the curb to optimize access. 2. Develop customer-centered requirements for public services.

Page: 61 3. Integrate real-time data and tech into urban design and planning processes. 4. Publish data on EV charging station locations. 5. Advance fleet conversion to greener fuel.  Mid-Term Actions (3-5 years) 1. Create a unified wayfinding program. 2. Route transit by demand where suitable. 3. Expand ExpressPark citywide. 4. Introduce a portal for employers to manage transit benefits.  Long-Term Actions (6+ years) 1. Create a universal fare system for Los Angeles.  Goal #3. Create partnerships for more shared services  Policies 1. Update regulations to include new modes. 2. Make it easier to work with the City of Los Angeles and provide a level playing field. 3. Adopt a revised transportation demand management ordinance for new developments.  Short-Term Actions (0-2 years) 1. Develop a shared mobility action plan. 2. Form a multi-discipline mobility assessment team. 3. Designate an innovation pilot project manager.  Mid-Term Actions (3-5 years) 1. Bring sharing to City Hall through cars haring, bike sharing, and carpooling platforms. 2. Launch a mobility lab.  Long-Term Actions (6+ years) 1. Implement mobility as a service.  Goal #4. Establish feedback loops for services and infrastructure  Policies 1. Become a more responsive service provider. 2. Establish a project evaluation standard.  Short-Term Actions (0-2 years) 1. Create a user experience working group. 2. Investigate new tools for the ongoing evaluation of infrastructure conditions. 3. Engage the entire community on infrastructure condition assessments. 4. Partner and support a marketing campaign on shared mobility.

Page: 62  Mid-Term Actions (3-5 years) 1. Streamline LADOT online content and launch a project dashboard. 2. Prepare the workforce for changes driven by innovation in transportation technology. 3. Adopt a multimodal smart fare system.  Long Term Actions (6+ years) 1. Develop a methodology to move towards Infrastructure as a service.  Goal #5. Prepare for an automated future  Policies 1. Call for mobility innovation in California. 2. Collaborate regionally to promote interoperability. 3. Launch a taskforce on data monetization strategies. 4. Advocate for new approaches to financing infrastructure projects.  Short Term Actions (0-2 years) 1. Develop a business plan for a city-owned automated fleet. 2. Create a dedicated staff position focused on connected and fully autonomous vehicle technologies. 3. Implement blind spot detection systems for public transit vehicles. 4. Expand City of LADOT connected bus technologies fleet-wide. 5. Invest in lane markings that enhance effectiveness of lane departure warning and prevention systems.  Mid-Term Actions (3-5 years) 1. Create better access to ATSAC (central traffic control system) data and enhance transparency of network prioritization for planning. 2. Develop a fully autonomous vehicle road network along transit and enhanced vehicle networks. 3. Launch a data as a service program to provide real-time infrastructure data to connected vehicles.  Long-Term Actions (6+ years) 1. Convert the public transit vehicle fleet to fully autonomous. 10.4 SAN FRANCISCO, CA The San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA) produced in 2017 an overview of the TNC (MaaS services employing hired drivers) landscape in the City and County of San Francisco, and they compared how other major cities in the US were regulating TNCs (San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 2017).

Page: 63 The SFCTA report noted that as of June 2017, 48 states and the District of Columbia had passed legislation to regulate TNCs statewide. These state-level regulations have focused on safety, insurance, and fares. They also identified dozens of cities and counties that have enacted their own policies for TNCs. The local policies have focused on safety, mobility for all modes, accessibility, data sharing, and congestion management. Some agencies and transit operators have initiated pilot tests and marketing partnerships with TNCs to enhance first- and last-mile transit access. The City of San Francisco’s 10 principles for TNCs are: 1. SAFETY: Emerging mobility services and technologies must be consistent with the City and County of San Francisco’s goal for achieving Vision Zero, reducing conflicts, and ensuring public safety and security on roads, sidewalks and public rights of way. 2. TRANSIT: Emerging mobility services and technologies must complement rather than compete with public transit services, must support and account for the operational needs of public transit and encourage use of high-occupancy modes. 3. EQUITABLE ACCESS: Emerging mobility services and technologies must promote equitable access to services. All people, regardless of age, race, color, gender, sexual orientation and gender identity, national origin, religion, or any other protected category, should benefit from emerging mobility services and technologies, and groups that have historically lacked access to mobility benefits must be prioritized and should benefit most. 4. DISABLED ACCESS: Emerging mobility services and technologies must be inclusive of persons with disabilities. Those who require accessible vehicles, physical access points, services, and technologies are entitled to receive the same or a comparable level of access as persons without disabilities. 5. SUSTAINABILITY: Emerging mobility services and technologies must support sustainability, including helping to meet the city’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals, promote use of all non-auto modes, and support efforts to increase the resiliency of the transportation system. 6. CONGESTION: Emerging mobility services and technologies must consider the effects on traffic and public rights of way congestion, including the resulting impacts on road and sidewalk safety, modal choices, emergency vehicle response time, and transit performance and reliability. 7. ACCOUNTABILITY: Emerging mobility services and technologies providers must share relevant data so that the City and the public can effectively evaluate the services’ benefits to and impacts on the transportation system and determine whether the services reflect the goals of San Francisco. 8. LABOR: Emerging mobility services and technologies must ensure fairness in pay and labor policies and practices. Emerging mobility services and technologies should support San

Page: 64 Francisco’s local hire principles, promote equitable job training opportunities, and maximize procurement of goods and services from disadvantaged business enterprises. 9. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Emerging mobility services and technologies must promote a positive financial impact on the City’s infrastructure investments and delivery of publicly-provided transportation services. 10. COLLABORATION: Emerging mobility services and technology providers and the City must engage and collaborate with each other and the community to improve the city and its transportation system. In 2018 the SFCTA produced their evaluation of the emerging mobility (MaaS) services in San Francisco, identifying the City’s guiding principles for emerging mobility, assessing where the mobility services fall short of meeting those guiding principles, and recommending various City actions for addressing those shortfalls (San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 2018). The emerging mobility services they evaluated included electric standing scooter sharing, bike sharing, scooter sharing, car sharing, ride sharing, ride hailing, microtransit, courier network services, fully autonomous vehicles, robots, and drones. The SFCTA report concludes:  Companies that have performed pilot tests with San Francisco public agencies have provided the City with data and experience that has informed development of the City’s permit systems for these types of services.  The City is not receiving adequate data from enough companies providing these services to fully evaluate how well these services are fulfilling the City’s 10 guiding principles.  Emerging mobility services are providing opportunities for equitable access during late night hours and on weekends in areas not well served by public transit.  The City lacks sufficient information to assess the degree to which the emerging mobility services are supporting public transit.  Operator training is inconsistent across mobility services and almost no providers test operators following training.  The City lacks sufficient data to assess the impacts of the emerging mobility services on traffic congestion. The SFCTA report recommends: 1. The City should proactively partner with TNCs to develop innovative solutions to the city’s transportation needs. 2. The City should collect and warehouse data on TNC activities. 3. The City should collect sufficient permit fees to fully recover cost of regulation. 4. The City should conduct a study to identify equity gaps in TNC services for low-income users. 5. The City should pursue TNC pilot programs to better support public transit. 6. The City should increase and improve enforcement to encourage safe operation.

Page: 65 7. The City should develop a curb management strategy that allocates and prices curb access appropriately.

Page: 66 11 CONCLUSION Public agencies face significant challenges continuing to perform their governmental functions in the face of the private sector’s prodigious output of new technologies. Agencies need to rethink how they develop policies and plans. They need to obtain new expertise. 11.1 POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND LAND USE This review of the characteristics of new transportation-related technologies and their applications in the transportation sector has found a wide variety of technologies, applications, and potential land use and transportation impacts. Some technologies may reduce some forms of travel. Others may increase travel. The great uncertainty is the price point at which the new technologies and services can be offered in the marketplace on a sustained basis. If the new offerings are more expensive or inconvenient than currently available options, they are unlikely to see wide scale adoption. If they are offered at competitive prices and are more convenient than currently available options, they will see widespread adoption and will significantly affect travel and land use. Due to these uncertainties the long-term impacts of transformational technologies cannot be known with any degree of probability (much less, certainty). We can create multiple 20-year future scenarios for planning purposes, but we do not even know enough at this time to assign a probability to each scenario. 11.2 POLICY AND PLANNING CHALLENGES This review has also identified numerous policy and planning challenges specific to each technology. Generally, transformational technologies challenge how public agencies go about their rulemaking, policymaking, and planning processes. New technologies may show up on a city’s sidewalks or the roadside of a state highway with little warning or notice. Technology deployers rush their products out onto the streets and highways without a permit or license. Current laws are often technology-specific and mute on a new technology. Agencies find themselves updating old laws and passing new ones to deal with technologies not dreamed of five years earlier. The Transportation Research Board has identified transformational technologies as one of its key issues for 2019 (Transportation Research Board, 2018). 1. How can and how should public policy steer the development of new transportation services, connected vehicles, and fully autonomous vehicles? 2. What additional federal, state, and local policies are needed?

Page: 67 3. What is the appropriate balance of state and federal safety regulatory oversight? 4. How can we ensure the consistent and safe performance of AI? 5. How will travelers respond to new technologies and services? One consequence apparent to all is that the new technologies and applications will affect an agency’s traditional funding stream. There are significant future funding challenges for agencies dependent on current transportation- related funding streams, like the fuel tax and vehicle licensing fees (Bornstein, Dixon, Flynn, & Pankratz, 2018). Bornstein et al. estimate that between 2016 and 2040:  Fuel tax revenues might decline by 30 percent.  Vehicle registration and license fees may decline by 30 percent.  Parking revenues may decline by 65 percent.  Traffic enforcement fines may decline by 65 percent.  Tolling revenues may increase by 20 percent. They see a few potential new revenue streams that public agencies might consider:  Dynamic tolling based on usage.  Tiered licensing fees for MaaS providers.  Monetizing the mobility data streams that agencies control.  Entering into public-private partnerships (PPP) 11.3 ADAPTING THE PLANNING PROCESS The first step an agency should take is to determine what its goals and vision are for planning and regulating transformational technologies affecting land use and transportation. With its vision in place, the agency then should conduct a self-assessment of its ability to achieve its vision and goals.  The agency will want and need to bring new data sources into its planning processes.  The agency will want and need to get its staff smart on the new technologies.  The agency will want and need to update its plans and regulations, so they are more flexible in dealing with new technologies.  Finally, the agency will want and need to be nimbler in how it responds to new technologies as they hit the streets.

Page: 68 GLOSSARY 5G Wireless Fifth generation wireless communication standard using the portion of the spectrum in the 600 MHz to 6 GHz range. Has a target maximum data transfer rate of 20 Gigabits/second, latency of 1 millisecond. (Wikipedia) Active Demand Management (ADM) The use of information and pricing to adjust travel demand to better fit the capacity available in the transportation system. Active demand management (ADM) uses information and technology to dynamically manage demand, which could include redistributing travel to less congested times of day or routes or reducing overall vehicle trips by influencing a mode choice. (FHWA - https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/atdm/approaches/adm.htm) Active Traffic Management (ATM) Active traffic management (ATM) is the ability to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on prevailing and predicted traffic conditions. Focusing on trip reliability, it maximizes the effectiveness and efficiency of the facility. It increases throughput and safety through use of integrated systems with new technology, including the automation of dynamic deployment to optimize performance quickly and without delay that occurs when operators must deploy operational strategies manually. ATM approaches focus on influencing travel behavior with respect to lane/facility choices and operations. (FHWA - https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/atdm/approaches/atm.htm) Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) The combination of the multimodal version of active traffic management with active demand management. Artificial Intelligence (AI) AI or machine learning is the ability of a computer program to identify relationships between input data and desired results without human guidance. Training of the AI machine requires extensive data giving examples of “right” and “wrong” results for a wide range of input conditions. Automated/ Autonomous Vehicles (AV) Automated vehicles may have a range of driver assist capabilities starting with partial automation of certain driver tasks up to and including full automation, self-driving. Autonomous vehicles are fully self-driving. This report focuses on the transformational impacts of fully, self-driving autonomous vehicles (AVs) (Level 5 SAE). However, the literature varies in the strictness with which the authors employ the various terms for AVs. Bluetooth (BT) A wireless technology standard for exchanging data over short distances using short-wavelength UHF radio waves. (Wikipedia) Car Sharing (Round Trip, One- Way, and Peer-to- Peer) Travelers subscribe to or rent a car on a timeshare basis. Round trip rentals require the vehicle to be returned to its starting point. One-way rentals allow the traveler to drop the vehicle off closer to the destination. Peer-to- peer rentals share ownership among the users of the vehicle, rather than a third party.

Page: 69 Cellular network A mobile communication network where the last link is wireless. The network is distributed over land areas called cells each served by at least one fixed-location transceiver, but more normally three cell sites or base transceiver stations. (Wikipedia) Connected Vehicles (CV) A vehicle that is equipped with Internet access and usually also with a wireless local area network. This allows the car to share internet access with other devices both inside and outside the vehicle. Often, the car is also outfitted with special technologies that tap into the internet or wireless LAN and provide additional benefits to the driver. For safety-critical applications, it is anticipated that cars will also be connected using dedicated short-range communication (DSRC) radios, operating in the FCC-granted 5.9 GHz band with very low latency. (Wikipedia – Connected Car) Electric Vehicles (EV) Vehicles powered by electric motor. The electricity may be provided by battery, third rail, overhead wire, solar cells, fuel cells, and/or internal combustion engine. DOT Department of transportation. May be federal, state, local. DSRC Dedicated short-range communications. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has designated a portion of the spectrum around 5.9 GHz for vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications of safety and vehicle status information. There are competing requests for use of this portion of the spectrum for other purposes. Dynamic Fares and Pricing The adjustment of tolls, parking costs, and other transportation prices to reflect demand. Dynamic High- Occupancy Toll (HOT) Lanes Lanes that vary the number of occupants necessary to ride in a lane and/or allow single-occupant vehicles to pay a per-trip fee for use. Dynamic Rideshare Matching The use of algorithms to match ride-seekers to the most readily available ride-givers. Dynamic Routing Analysis of the roadway network and real-time traffic conditions to guide a user to the fastest route to a destination. E-scooter Electric motor-powered scooter. Driver may stand or sit. FMVSS Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards GPS Global Positioning System. A satellite-based radio navigation system owned by the US Government (Wikipedia). Accuracy of position varies depending on number of visible satellites, signal obstructions like buildings, and software used to enhance accuracy of estimated position. Hybrid Vehicles Vehicles that use a combustion engine to drive an electric generator that in turn powers the electric motor.

Page: 70 Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) is the institutional collaboration to aggressively and proactively integrate existing infrastructure along major corridors. Through an ICM approach, transportation professionals manage the corridor as a multimodal system and make operational decisions for the benefit of the corridor as a whole. (FHWA: https://www.its.dot.gov/research_archives/icms/index.htm) Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Intelligent Transportation Systems improve transportation safety and mobility and enhance American productivity by integrating advanced communication technologies into vehicles and infrastructure. (FHWA: https://www.its.dot.gov/resources/fastfacts.htm) Internet of Things (IoT) The Internet of Things (IoT) is the network of physical devices, vehicles, home appliances and other items embedded with electronics, software, sensors, actuators, and connectivity which enables these things to connect and exchange data, creating opportunities for more direct integration of the physical world into computer-based systems, resulting in efficiency improvements, economic benefits and reduced human intervention. (Wikipedia) LiDAR Light detection and ranging using pulsed laser light, return times, and wave lengths to generate 3-D representations of the physical environment. (Wikipedia) Location Based Service (LBS) Smart phone apps that provide users with information on nearby services Long Term Evolution (LTE) A communication standard for high speed data transfer with mobile devices. Sometimes referred to as 4G LTE or Advance 4G, but not strictly 4G. Registered trademark owned by ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute) (Wikipedia) Microtransit Privately owned and operated transit service. Current microtransit providers include Brid, Chariot, Lyft Shuttle, Split, and Via, among others. (Wikipedia) Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Methods for traveling that do not require purchase or ownership of a vehicle. Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) In the context of this report, OEMs are the manufacturers of vehicles. Outside of this report, OEMs include equipment manufacturers and equipment suppliers of all kinds. On-Demand Transit Dynamic transit routing that adjusts transit capacity to respond to demand. Transformational Technologies (TT) Any of a broad range of evolving new applications of science, engineering, and societal organization that have the potential to transform how people and institutions use land and transportation systems. Transfer Connection Protection The practice of guaranteeing rides to riders’ final destinations in the event that a connection is late or missed.

Page: 71 Transportation Network Companies (TNC) Transportation network company or mobility service provider that connects travelers needing a ride with drivers willing to provide one. (Wikipedia) Wireless, Wi-Fi Wireless local area network using devices based on IEEE 802.11 standards. Wi-Fi is a trademark of the Wi-Fi Alliance. (Wikipedia) Zone-based pricing Charging drivers a fee to drive within or into a congested area.

Page: 72 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ABS acrylonitrile butadiene styrene ADS automated driving system ARM adaptive ramp metering ATCSs adaptive traffic control systems ATDM active transportation and demand management AVs fully self-driving autonomous vehicles. The term “automated vehicles” covers a broader range of options, ranging from partial automation of some driver tasks up to and including full automation. We have restricted our use of the term AV to apply to only fully self-driving vehicles, although many references in the literature may apply the abbreviation AV more broadly, to include vehicles with various levels of driver assistance features. BEVs battery electric vehicles CACC cooperative adaptive cruise control CAVs AVs when combined with CV capabilities CNG compressed natural gas CVs connected vehicles CVPD connected vehicle pilot deployment DOT department of transportation DelDOT Delaware DOT DMS dynamic message signs DSRC dedicated short-range communication devices EVs electric vehicles FAA Federal Aviation Administration FCC Federal Communications Commission FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMVSSs Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards GAO government accountability office Gigabits gigabits GHM guaranteed ride home GHz gigahertz GPS global positioning system HEV hybrid electric vehicle HFCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicle HOV high-occupancy vehicle HOT high-occupancy toll ICE internal combustion engine ICM integrated corridor management IoT internet of things ITS intelligent transportation systems LNG liquefied natural gas MaaS mobility as a service

Page: 73 Mbps megabits per second MMITSS multimodal intelligent traffic signal system Mph miles per hour MPO metropolitan planning organization NACTO National Association of City Transportation Officials NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration OOID Owner-operator independent drivers PHEVs plug-in hybrid electric vehicles PLA polylactic acid RNG renewable natural gas ROW right of way RSU roadside units SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SUM shared-use mobility TMC traffic management center TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TNC transportation network companies TSP transit signal priority TTs transformational technologies UAVs unmanned aerial vehicles US United States USDOE US Department of Energy USDOT US Department of Transportation V2V vehicle-to-vehicle V2I vehicle-to-infrastructure VMT vehicle miles traveled

Page: 74 BIBLIOGRAPHY Barnes, P., Turkel, E., Moreland, L., & Pragg, S. (2017). Autonomous Vehicles in Delaware: Analyzing the Impact and Readiness for the First State. Dover, DE: Delaware DOT. Bornstein, J., Dixon, S., Flynn, M., & Pankratz, D. (2018, July). Funding the Future of Mobility. Deloitte Insights. California Department of Motor Vehicles. (2019, January 28). Permit Holders (Testing with a Driver). Retrieved from California Department of Motor Vehicles: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/permit FDOT Office of Policy Planning. (2018). Guidance for Assessing Planning Impacts And Opportunities Of Automated,. Tallahassee, FL: Florida Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration. (2018, March 16). Transportation Performance Management. Retrieved from Federal Highway Administration: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/ Hand, A. Z. (2016, August). Urban Mobility in a Digital Age, A Transportation Technology Strategy for Los Angeles,. Retrieved from Urban Mobility LA: http://www.urbanmobilityla.com/strategy/ Harrison, F., Gordon, M., & Allen, G. (2016). NCHRP Report 829: Leadership Guide for Strategic Information Management for State Departments of Transportation. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board. Hawkins, A. J. (2018, April 11). Coming soon to the Uber app: bikes, rental cars, and public transportation. ICF International. (2011, August). Guide to Sustainable Transportation Performance Measures. Retrieved from US Environmental Protection Agency/smartgrowth: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014- 01/documents/sustainable_transpo_performance.pdf Kase, P. ". (2019, January 31). Performance Management. Retrieved from Oregon Department of Transportation: https://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/PerformMang/Pages/index.aspx Kawamura, K. (2018, August 16). Professor, University of illinois, Chicago. (R. Dowling, Interviewer) Kockelman, K., Boyles, S., Stone, P., Fagnant, D., & Pateet, R. (2017). An Assessment of Autonomous Vehicles: Traffic Impacts and Infrastructure Needs—Final Report. Austin, TX: Texas Department of Transportation.

Page: 75 Kuhn, B., Lukuc, M., Poorsartep, M., & Wagner, J. (2017, August). Commercial Truck Platooning Demonstration in Texas – Level 2 Automation. Retrieved from Texas A&M Transportation Institute: http://tti.tamu.edu/documents/0-6836-1.pdf Lingham, V. (2018, November 20). Connected and Automated Vehicle Program. Retrieved from Virginia Department of Transportation: http://www.virginiadot.org/programs/connected_and_automated_vehicles.asp McGehee, D., Brewer, M., Schwarz, C., & Smith, B. (2016, March 14). Review of Automated Vehicle Technology: Policy and Implementation Implications. Retrieved from The University of Iowa Public Policy Center: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/76638510.pdf Missouri Department of Transportation. (2019, January 31). A Citizen's Guide to Missouri's Transportation Future. Retrieved from Missouri Department of Transportation: http://www2.modot.org/LRTP/ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2018. Critical Issues in Transportation 2019. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25314. National Association of City Transportation Officials. (2018, July). NACTO Policy 2018 Guidelines for the Regulation and Management of Shared Active Transportation Version 1: July 2018. Retrieved from National Association of City Transportation Officials: https://nacto.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/07/NACTO-Shared-Active-Transportation-Guidelines.pdf National League of Cities. (2016, December 8). Cities and Drones, What Cities Need To Know About Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVS). Retrieved from National League of Cities: https://www.nlc.org/resource/cities-and-drones National League of Cities. (2018, October 17). Autonomous Vehicle Pilots Across America. Retrieved from National League of Cities: https://www.nlc.org/resource/autonomous- vehicle-pilots-across-america National Renewable Energy Lab. (2019, January 31). Truck Platooning Evaluations. Retrieved from National Renewable Energy Lab: https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/fleettest- platooning.html Parsons Brinckerhoff, Delcan, George Mason University School of Public Policy, Housman and Associates. (2011). SHRP2 Report S2-L06-RR-2: Guide to Improving Capability for Systems Operations and Management. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Sabol, P., & Puentes, R. (2014, December 17). Private Capital, Public Good: Drivers of Successful Infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships. Retrieved from Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/research/private-capital-public-good-drivers-of-successful- infrastructure-public-private-partnerships/

Page: 76 San Francisco County Transportation Authority. (2017, December). The TNC Regulatory Landscape An Overview of Current TNC Regulation in California and Across the Country. Retrieved from San Francisco County Transportation Authority: https://www.sfcta.org/sites/default/files/content/Planning/TNCs/TNC_regulatory_020218.p df San Francisco County Transportation Authority. (2018, July). Emerging Mobility Evaluation Report. Retrieved from San Francisco County Transportation Authority: https://www.sfcta.org/emerging-mobility/evaluation Sciara, G.-C. (2015, October). Measuring Land Use Performance: Policy, Plan, and Outcome. Retrieved from University of California, Davis: https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/wp- content/uploads/2014/08/10-20-2015-Sciara-MEASURING-LAND-USE-PERFORMANCE- POLICY-PLAN-AND-OUTCOME-SD.pdf Sky Pond Partners and Iteris, Inc. (2015). NCHRP Report 814: Data to Support Transportation Agency Business Needs: A Self-Assessment Guide. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board. Texas Department of Transportation. (2018, June 8). 2019-2023 Strategic Plan. Retrieved from Texas Department of Transportation: http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/sla/strategic-plan- 2019-2023.pdf Transportation Research Board. (2018, January 31). Critical Issues in Transportation, Prepublication Draft: November 2018. Retrieved from: Transportation Research Board: http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/178402.aspx US Department of Transportation. (2018, June). Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployment Program. Retrieved from Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office: https://www.its.dot.gov/pilots/index.htm Wiggers, K. (2018, June 19). Google, Lyft, Uber and others form a coalition to examing the impact of sel-driving cars. Retrieved from Venture Beat: https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/19/google-lyft-uber-and-other-form-a-coalition-to- examine-the-impact-of-self-driving-cars/ Zhao, F., & Soon, C. (2006). A Study of Alternative Land Use Forecasting Models. Tallahassee, FL: Florida Department of Transportation. Zmud, J., Williams, T., Outwater, M., Bradley, M., Kalra, N., & Row, S. (2018). NCHRP Report 896, Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.

Page: 77 Zmud, J., Williams, T., Outwater, M., Bradley, M., Kalra, N., & Row, S. (2018). NCHRP Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.

Next: Part II: Desk Reference on Transformational Technologies »
Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation Get This Book
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Examples of transformational technologies—many are discussed in technical and popular media—include wireless telecommunications, shared vehicles, connected vehicles, fully autonomous vehicles, alternative-fuel vehicles, smart cities and communities, big data analytics, internet-of-things, as well as UAVs or drones, 3-D printing, and more.

Public agencies face significant challenges continuing to perform their governmental functions in the face of the private sector’s prodigious output of these new technologies. Agencies need to rethink how they develop their policies and plans—and they need to obtain new expertise.

This review of the characteristics of new transportation-related technologies and their applications in the transportation sector—the pre-publication draft of NCHRP Research Report 924: Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation—has found a wide variety of potential impacts on areas such as travel and land use and planning projects.

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