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PART II: DESK REFERENCE ON TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES 78
Page: 79 CONTENTS: PART II 1Â Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 84Â 1.1Â Scope of Technologies CoveredÂ ...........................................................................................................................Â 84Â 1.2Â Technologies and Their ApplicationÂ ......................................................................................................................Â 85Â 1.3Â Organization of AppendixÂ ........................................................................................................................................Â 86Â 2Â Characteristics of New Technologies .................................................................................. 87Â 2.1Â Personal Communication DevicesÂ ........................................................................................................................Â 87Â 2.1.1Â Deployment Status and ChallengesÂ ................................................................................................................Â 89Â 2.1.2Â Impacts on Transportation and Land UseÂ ......................................................................................................Â 89Â 2.1.3Â Special Challenges for Rural AreasÂ ..................................................................................................................Â 89Â 2.2Â Active Transportation TechnologiesÂ ......................................................................................................................Â 90Â 2.2.1Â Deployment Status and ChallengesÂ ................................................................................................................Â 91Â 2.2.2Â Specific ExamplesÂ .................................................................................................................................................Â 92Â 2.2.3Â Potential Impacts on TravelÂ ................................................................................................................................Â 92Â 2.2.4Â Land Use and Streetscape ImplicationsÂ .........................................................................................................Â 92Â 2.2.5Â Highway Infrastructure ImplicationsÂ .................................................................................................................Â 92Â 2.2.6Â Implications for LogisticsÂ ......................................................................................................................................Â 93Â 2.2.7Â Policy and Planning ChallengesÂ .......................................................................................................................Â 93Â 2.2.8Â Special Considerations for Rural AreasÂ ...........................................................................................................Â 93Â 2.3Â Automobile, Mass Transit, Freight TechnologiesÂ .................................................................................................Â 93Â 2.3.1Â Alternative Fuel VehiclesÂ .....................................................................................................................................Â 94Â 2.3.2Â Electric VehiclesÂ .....................................................................................................................................................Â 99Â 2.3.3Â Connected VehiclesÂ ..........................................................................................................................................Â 108Â 2.3.4Â Automated/Autonomous (Self-Driving) VehiclesÂ .......................................................................................Â 114Â 2.4Â Unmanned Aerial Vehicles & DroidsÂ ...................................................................................................................Â 130Â 2.4.1Â Deployment Status and ChallengesÂ ..............................................................................................................Â 130Â
Page: 80 2.4.2Â Specific ExamplesÂ ...............................................................................................................................................Â 131Â 2.4.3Â Potential Impacts on TravelÂ ..............................................................................................................................Â 131Â 2.4.4Â Land Use and Streetscape ImplicationsÂ .......................................................................................................Â 132Â 2.4.5Â Highway Infrastructure ImplicationsÂ ...............................................................................................................Â 132Â 2.4.6Â Potential Implications for LogisticsÂ ..................................................................................................................Â 132Â 2.4.7Â Policy and Planning ChallengesÂ .....................................................................................................................Â 132Â 2.4.8Â Special Considerations for Rural AreasÂ .........................................................................................................Â 132Â 2.5Â Highway System TechnologiesÂ ..............................................................................................................................Â 133Â 2.5.1Â Deployment Status and ChallengesÂ ..............................................................................................................Â 135Â 2.5.2Â Specific ExamplesÂ ...............................................................................................................................................Â 136Â 2.5.3Â Potential Impacts on TravelÂ ..............................................................................................................................Â 136Â 2.5.4Â Land Use and Streetscape ImplicationsÂ .......................................................................................................Â 137Â 2.5.5Â Highway Infrastructure ImplicationsÂ ...............................................................................................................Â 137Â 2.5.6Â Potential Implications for LogisticsÂ ..................................................................................................................Â 137Â 2.5.7Â Policy and Planning ChallengesÂ .....................................................................................................................Â 137Â 2.5.8Â Special Considerations for Rural AreasÂ .........................................................................................................Â 138Â 2.6Â Parking System TechnologiesÂ ................................................................................................................................Â 138Â 2.6.1Â Deployment Status and ChallengesÂ ..............................................................................................................Â 138Â 2.6.2Â Specific ExamplesÂ ...............................................................................................................................................Â 138Â 2.6.3Â Potential Impacts on TravelÂ ..............................................................................................................................Â 139Â 2.6.4Â Land Use and Streetscape ImplicationsÂ .......................................................................................................Â 139Â 2.6.5Â Highway Infrastructure ImplicationsÂ ...............................................................................................................Â 139Â 2.6.6Â Potential Implications for LogisticsÂ ..................................................................................................................Â 139Â 2.6.7Â Policy and Planning ChallengesÂ .....................................................................................................................Â 139Â 2.6.8Â Special Considerations for Rural AreasÂ .........................................................................................................Â 140Â
Page: 81 3Â Applications of New Technologies .................................................................................... 141Â 3.1Â Personal Mobility And Land Use Applications...................................................................................................Â 141Â 3.1.1Â Applications Replacing the Need to TravelÂ .................................................................................................Â 141Â 3.1.2Â Applications Facilitating TravelÂ ........................................................................................................................Â 144Â 3.1.3Â Applications Increasing Land Use FlexibilityÂ .................................................................................................Â 151Â 3.2Â Government Services ApplicationsÂ .....................................................................................................................Â 153Â 3.2.1Â Applications Improving General Government ServicesÂ ...........................................................................Â 153Â 3.2.2Â Applications Improving the Delivery of Transportation ServicesÂ ............................................................Â 154Â 3.2.3Â Applications Improving the Delivery of Parking ServicesÂ .........................................................................Â 159Â 3.3Â Logisitics ApplicationsÂ ..............................................................................................................................................Â 164Â 3.3.1Â Applications Improving Line HaulÂ ...................................................................................................................Â 165Â 3.3.2Â Applications Improving Delivery (Last Mile)Â .................................................................................................Â 167Â Abbreviations and Acronyms .................................................................................................. 169Â Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 171Â
Page: 82 LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 1: The Technological Focus of NCHRP 08-117 ............................................................................. 85Â Exhibit 2: New Technologies Lead to New Applications ....................................................................... 85Â Exhibit 3: Lifetime Ownership Costs of Conventional and Battery Electric Vehicles ....................... 101Â Exhibit 4: Forecasted U.S. Passenger Car Sales for Electric Vehicles ................................................. 103Â Exhibit 5: Society of Automotive Engineers Levels of Vehicle Automation ...................................... 115Â Exhibit 6: U.S. Passenger Car Market Penetration Forecasts for AVs.................................................. 117Â Exhibit 7: Impact of CAV Market Penetration on Highway Capacity ............................................... 122Â Exhibit 8: Division of Vehicle Safety Responsibilities between State and Federal ........................... 126Â Exhibit 9: UT Austin Assessment of AV Needs for Supportive Infrastructure ....................................... 127Â Exhibit 10: Transportation and Land Use Applications ......................................................................... 141Â Exhibit 11: Example e-Commerce Applications ................................................................................... 142Â Exhibit 12: Example ICM Incident Management CV Application ...................................................... 155Â Exhibit 13: Example ICM Arterial Management Application of CVs .................................................. 155Â
Page: 83 AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many people to thank for their help in producing this report. We would first like to thank the NCHRP Project 08-117 panel for their insights, assistance, and guidance throughout this project. We thank the volunteer experts who participated in our interim report workshop: ï Dr. Dan Sperling of the University of California, Davis; ï Dr. Kazuya Kawamura of the University of Illinois at Chicago; ï Dr. Catherine Lawson, University at Albany (SUNY); ï Dr. John Renne, Florida Atlantic University; and ï Archie Tan and Sam Sharvini of the Orange County Transportation Authority. We appreciate the informal advice we have received from Peter Hurley of the City of Portland, Oregon, and from Ed Hutchison of the Florida Department of Transportation. We would like to credit several members of the Kittelson team for their contributions to the research. ï Karla Kingsley contributed the material on active transportation modes and mobility-as-a- service (MaaS) apps. ï Katie Taylor and Makenzie Cooper created the more complex graphics for this report. ï Keith Szot, formerly of Bluemac Analytics, contributed material on IoT applications. ï Jill Irwin of Irwin Writing/Editing has been our technical editor on this report. Sincerely, KITTELSON & ASSOCIATES, INC. Richard Dowling, PhD, PE Abigail Morgan, PhD, PE Senior Principal Engineer Senior Engineer
Page: 84 1 INTRODUCTION We live in exciting times. We live in challenging times. Never has the transportation sector witnessed such rapid changes in the technologies used to move people and goods. The private sector that used to be content building conventional cars and trucks now wants to invest billions of dollars in every aspect of transportation infrastructure. Planners can see a truly bright future ahead of us. They also see a truly terrible future ahead of us. The difference will be in how planners in the public sector work with entrepreneurs in the private sector. This project is a rapid-response research effort into the implications of new technologies for local, state, and federal agencies and how best to adapt and evolve current transportation and land use planning practices and products to address the challenges of transformational technologies. This appendix to the Final Report for NCHRP 08-117 is designed to be a look-up reference document on the impacts of individual transformational technologies on land use and transportation. This reference document is targeted to technical people. It provides an accessible compilation of the characteristics of new technologies, their deployment status, their potential impacts on travel, and their implications policy and planning. 1.1 SCOPE OF TECHNOLOGIES COVERED For the purposes of this project, transformational technologies are defined as any of a broad range of evolving applications of science, engineering, and societal organization with the potential to transform how people and institutions use land and transportation systems. Examples include wireless telecommunications, shared vehicles, connected vehicles (CVs), automated/autonomous vehicles (AVs), alternative fuel vehicles, smart cities and communities, big data analytics, internet of things (IoT), unmanned aircraft vehicles, 3-D printing, and more. These transformational technologies, individually and together, are already influencing how businesses and individuals use public right of way, curb space, and ancillary transportation facilities like parking and intermodal transfer facilities. Time and budget constraints required that this project focus on the highway/road/street vehicle- and system-related technologies of most interest to state DOTs that will also transform the movement of people and goods and their relevant impacts on the supporting transportation/land use infrastructure (see Exhibit 1).
Page: 85 Exhibit 1: The Technological Focus of NCHRP 08-117 1.2 TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR APPLICATION New technologies are applied in the transportation field to help travelers, shippers, and carriers more cost-effectively accomplish their mobility goals. Each application may employ a variety of technologies. Transportation applications can be grouped according to the area of their focus: (1) improving personal mobility, (2)improving land use efficiency, (3) improving the delivery of government services, and (4) the delivery of goods (logistics) (see Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2: New Technologies Lead to New Applications
Page: 86 The distinction between technologies and applications is necessarily indefinite. Generally: ï Technologies involve more hardware than software. Often the software associated with the technology provides basic functionality for the hardware. ï An application involves more software than hardware. It builds on the basic functionality of various technologies, combining them together to provide a more sophisticated degree of functionality. 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF APPENDIX Section 2 covers transformational technologies, including: personal communication devices, active transportation technologies, automobile technologies, public transit technologies, freight technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles, highway system technologies, and parking system technologies. It describes the characteristics of the technologies, their deployment status, their potential impacts on travel, and their implications for land use, streetscape design, highway infrastructure, and logistics. Policy and planning challenges are outlined for each technology, along with any special considerations for rural areas. Section 3 covers the major transportation applications of the technologies. Personal mobility applications, government services applications, and logistics applications are discussed. Like Chapter 3, Chapter 4 also describes the characteristics of the applications, their deployment status, their potential impacts on travel, and their implications for land use, streetscape design, highway infrastructure, and logistics. Policy and planning challenges are outlined for each application along with any special considerations for rural areas.
Page: 87 2 CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES This chapter describes the characteristics of the transformational technologies selected as the focus of NCHRP 08-117 (see Section1). ï Each technology is first described. Cost and range data are provided where available. ï The technologyâs current deployment status is described (e.g., under development, pilot testing, loss leader, self-sustaining) as well as technical and economic challenges to further its market penetration. ï The likely personal travel demand impacts of the technology are described in percentage terms, when such data are available, and in relative terms when data is not available. Actual experience is preferred over technical forecasts with implicit assumptions. However, in many cases the discussion has had to rely on theoretical considerations. ï The potential impacts on regional land use and streetscape design are described. This is a general discussion of general regional growth impacts and geometric streetscape design considerations outside of the travel lanes (which are covered in the next bullet). ï The potential impacts on highway infrastructure needs and design are described in general terms. The focus is on the traveled way, not on the streetscape. ï The potential implications for logistics (goods movement) are described, including vehicles, shipping volumes, and logistic infrastructure. ï The policy and planning challenges are described. Equity and environmental considerations are pointed out only where they are particularly relevant. The brief descriptions here are not intended to be a full inventory of potential equity and environmental impacts. ï Any special considerations unique to rural areas are discussed. This reference only focuses on issues where the implications for rural areas significantly differ from those of urban, suburban areas. 2.1 PERSONAL COMMUNICATION DEVICES Personal communication devices are internet-connected devices that travelers, shippers, fleet operators, and carriers can use to monitor vehicle locations and infrastructure conditions on a near real-time basis. Smart phones, tablets, and desktop PCs are examples of personal communication devices. The most impactful of the personal communication devices are the global positioning system (GPS)-enabled smart cell phones because they provide mobile connectivity wherever the vehicle or the driver or the traveler are located. There are limitations on this mobile connectivity. Lack of cell towers and topographical obstructions, such as mountains and tall buildings, can interfere
Page: 88 with cell phone transmissions and GPS satellite communications. Similarly, cell phone coverage and GPS communications may be limited inside large buildings unless there is also an accessible wireless network. Cellular 5G is one of the upcoming advances in cell-phone communication technology. Cellular 5G offers exceptionally high capacity and low latency cell phone transmission capabilities. 5G operates on three different spectrum bands: (Winkelman, 5Gâs Arrival is transforming tech. Hereâs everything you need to know to keep up., 2018) ï Low band in the sub 1 gigahertz (GHz) range has peak data speeds of 100 megabits per second (Mbps). This band enables larger spacing between cell towers and is less affected by physical obstructions. T-Mobile 5G owns a significant portion of this band. ï Mid-band spectrum has lower latency (delays in transmission), a shorter range, and less penetration of obstructions than low-band. However, mid-band offers peak data speeds of 1 gigabit per second (Gbps). Sprint is a major owner of this band. ï High-band spectrum offers very low latency with peak data speeds of 10 Gbps. Its range between cell towers is low and is not good at penetrating buildings. AT&T and Verizon are working on offering 5G in this high-band spectrum. Note that existing 4G LTE phones cannot transmit or receive 5G. In 2019, 5G phones are anticipated to be released. Cellular telephone network operators claim that high-band 5G can provide vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) equivalent to dedicated short-range communication devices (DSRC). The range of high band 5G towers is, however, extremely limited, requiring that a 5G receiver/transmitter be installed every few hundred feet, almost from street light to street light in an urban area. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently passed a rule requiring local agencies to give rapid review for applications for new 5G transmitters. (Federal Communications Commission, 2018) By way of comparison, DSRC communications are also limited in distance (on the order of 300 yards) (Wolff, 2018). Thus, V2V DSRC works for suitably equipped vehicles within 300 yards of each other. V2I DSRC communication requires that DSRC roadside units be installed in sufficient density on the highway and that some means be provided for the roadside units to communicate back to a traffic management center. 5G also has another feature not available in the 4G or LTE cell phone standards: 5G towers can prioritize the transmission of emergency messages over others (Pogue, 5G is Just around the Corner, 2018) (Pogue, 5G Devices Are about to Change Your Life, 2018).
Page: 89 2.1.1 Deployment Status and Challenges The deployment status of 5G varies by carrier (Winkelman, 5Gâs Arrival is transforming tech. Hereâs everything you need to know to keep up., 2018). ï Verizon fixed 5G service (no mobile service) is currently available in portions of Houston, Texas; Indianapolis, Indiana; and Los Angeles and Sacramento, California. Mobile 5G and 5G-capable smartphones will come out sometime in 2019. ï AT&T began offering 5G in parts of 12 cities in late 2018: Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina; Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Waco, Texas; Indianapolis, Indiana; Jacksonville, Mississippi; Louisville, Kentucky; New Orleans, Louisiana; and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma., . The service will initially be made available in 2019 to selected customers within those cities. Tree-lined streets are expected to be a significant challenge at the start. Compatible cell phones will start to become available in 2019. ï T-Mobile expects to provide 5G service initially in 2019 in New York City, New York; Los Angeles; Dallas; and Las Vegas, Nevada. They are aiming for national coverage in 2020. ï Sprint plans to launch 5G service in early 2019 in New York City; Phoenix, Arizona; Kansas City, Missouri; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. Compatible 5G phones are expected in 2019. (Note that T-Mobile and Sprint were in talks to merge at the time this document was prepared.) 2.1.2 Impacts on Transportation and Land Use The new communications technologies enable entrepreneurs to combine new technologies with new connectivity to deliver applications that improve personal mobility, the delivery of governmental services, and goods movement (logistics). See Chapter 3: Applications of New Technologies for the impacts of the specific applications employing improved personal communication technologies. 2.1.3 Special Challenges for Rural Areas The rural areas of the U.S. face many unique challenges (Porter, 2018): ï Rural America is getting old. The median age of rural residents is 7 years greater than that of urban residents. ï Economic growth is bypassing rural economies. Counties with fewer than 100,000 people lost 17,500 businesses in the four years following the 2008 recession. By 2017, the largest metropolitan areas had 10 percent more jobs than in 2008. Rural areas have yet to recover to their 2008 levels. The supporting infrastructure for personal communications devices in rural areas lags that of the larger metropolitan areas. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that completely rural counties had a broadband subscription rate of 65 percent compared to 75 percent for mostly urban counties. Low broadband rates occur in the upper Plains, the Southwest, and the South: Arizona, New
Page: 90 Mexico, south Texas, lower parts of Mississippi, and Alabama, and areas of the Carolinas and southern Virginia (Plautz, US Census Bureau finds stark rural-urban broadband divide, 2019). A federal task force on agriculture and rural prosperity identified the âexpansion of high-speed, high-capacity internetâ as a key infrastructure priority. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has a grant program to improve broadband access in rural areas (Plautz, US Census Bureau finds stark rural-urban broadband divide, 2019). FCC identification of areas of the country with broadband access is not confirmed by Microsoft (Lohr, 2018). The FCC focused on âaccess,â not âuse.â In their study, Microsoft focused on actual usage of broadband. Microsoft identified 162.8 million people in the U.S. who use Microsoft products on the internet but at below broadband speeds. The FCC identifies only 24.7 million people who do not have access to broadband speeds. Microsoft found a strong correlation between employment and broadband use. A State of Iowa task force has identified high-speed internet access as a priority for rural areas (Boshart, 2018). Mississippi, Arkansas, New Mexico, and West Virginia are the states with the lowest percentages of households connected to broadband internet service. Broadband subscription rates for these states fall in the 70 percent range. The national average is 81 percent. Washington is the state with the highest broadband subscription rate at 87 percent (Vitu, 2018). 2.2 ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES Active transportation technologies apply to single-person vehicles. Potentially transformative emerging technologies in this category include electric bicycles (e- bike) and electric scooters (e-scooters), among others. The impacts of these new technologies are magnified when they are combined with personal communications devices and internet applications that enable these vehicles to be shared (See Chapter 3: Applications of New Technologies). These new active transportation technologies enable greater ranges of travel, enable higher speed travel, and make it easier for less physically fit people to go farther with these vehicles. While a human-powered bicycle may travel at 10 to 15 miles per hour (mph), an e-bike provides power assistance to reach speeds of 20 to 30 mph for limited distances on level ground. Higher speeds may be feasible for some models. Lithium battery powered e-scooters can achieve highway speeds (35 mph) for limited distances (Ridetwo wheels, 2019) Depending on the state and the maximum speed of the e-scooter or e-bike, a vehicle driverâs license may be required. A vehicle license may be required as well for operation on public roads. The riders may be required to wear a helmet, depending on their age. Local ordinances and state vehicle codes may or may not allow operation of these vehicles on the sidewalk and may set
Page: 91 speed limits for operation in bike lanes and on roads. Different cities may set different speed limits for these vehicles. Some cities have requested or required âgeo-fencing,â where the vehicle is electronically disabled by the provider if it is taken out of its approved service area or used on restricted portions of the street right of way, such as sidewalks (DeRuy, 2018) (Kenney, 2018) (Value Penguin, 2019) (Keenan, 2018). E-bikes generally come with a seat and pedals. E-scooters may or may not have a seat for the rider. The range that the electric vehicles can travel on a single battery charge varies according to speed, payload weight, and grade. A reasonable range for an e-scooter is 5 to 10 miles at speeds below 10 mph (Cladek, 2018). Other sources say that the e-scooters typically used in shared systems today have a range of about 15 to 20 miles per charge (Lime Bike, 2019) (May, 2018). Higher speeds reduce the range. The batteries on e-bikes are optimally sized to provide about one hour of assistance over the course of the trip (Cyclist, 2018). Electric vehicles in shared systems that have physical docking stations can be recharged between rides at suitably powered docking stations. Dockless electric vehicles are generally charged overnight by independent contractors that use GPS and a cell phone app to track down the devices and bring them home or to some other location for charging. Basic commuter human-powered bicycles range in price from $100 to $900. More expensive models may fall in the $1,000 to $10,000 range. E-bikes range in price from $300 to $3,000 (Shop on Google, December 21, 2018). Gas-powered scooters range in price from $500 to $3,000. E- scooters range in price from $100 to $1,500 (Google, December 21, 2018). The prices vary according to range of travel, maximum speed, and added features. A motor vehicle operatorâs license may be required to operate an e-bicycle or an e-scooter on public streets (California Department of Motor Vehicles, 2018). Segways, a variation of two-wheeled e-scooters (wheels opposite each other, rather than in line) were introduced in 2001 (Segway, 2018). They have maximum speeds on the order of 10 to 15 mph and a maximum range of 20 to 25 miles on a single charge. There are also a variety of electric-powered personal devices, ranging from skates to unicycles, available. 2.2.1 Deployment Status and Challenges The technologies for e-bikes and e-scooters are currently fully operational. Entrepreneurs, however, see potential revenue streams in owning and renting out fleets of e-bikes and e-scooters, when combined with cell phone-based apps and GPS units for easily renting
Page: 92 these vehicles and keeping track of their location. The location information itself may also be marketable to data aggregators and ultimately advertisers. Fleets of e-scooters and e-bikes have been and are being deployed in numerous large cities throughout the U.S. 2.2.2 Specific Examples E-bikes and e-scooters are available for consumer purchase anywhere in the U.S. Numerous cities in the U.S. also have providers of shared e-bike and shared e-scooter services. 2.2.3 Potential Impacts on Travel By increasing the feasible range of travel and making active transportation vehicles more accessible to more travelers, e-bikes and e-scooters might decrease walking for longer trips; replace some short transit and taxi trips; and increase the use of transit for longer trips by providing first- and last-mile access to transit stops. Increased transit use for longer distance trips might reduce automobile trips. The actual effects of these single-person vehicles will ultimately depend upon deployment and pricing. MaaS applications of e-bikes and e-scooters will have greater impacts (see Chapter 3: Applications of New Technologies). 2.2.4 Land Use and Streetscape Implications Parking of dockless bicycles, e-bikes, and e-scooters are significant land use planning and regulation challenges. E-bike and e-scooter charging is currently done at docks installed on the sidewalks or parking lanes of the public right of way or overnight at home or office. The increased range of personal travel provided by e-bikes and e-scooters will increase the feasible geographic area for dense downtown developments. A significant streetscape challenge of e-bikes and e-scooters will be, as they become ubiquitous, finding suitable lanes within the public street for them to travel and suitable places to park them within the right of way but outside of the traveled way. Their higher speeds will increase conflicts with pedestrians on sidewalks and slower conventional bicycles in bicycle lanes. However, their speeds will not be high enough to safely mix with vehicular traffic when it is moving at speeds in excess of 25 mph. 2.2.5 Highway Infrastructure Implications As usage of e-bikes and e-scooters increase, it may be desirable to incorporate into highway designs special travel lanes for light vehicles that typically travel at speeds greater than conventional bicycles and pedestrians but still slower than most automobiles and trucks. Greater bicycle and scooter (both electric and manual) use might reduce the need for added automobile travel lanes in downtown core settings.
Page: 93 2.2.6 Implications for Logistics E-bikes will enable expansion of downtown bicycle messenger and delivery services. Their power assistance and higher speeds might shift some short distance delivery services from conventional bicycles to e-bikes and e-scooters. 2.2.7 Policy and Planning Challenges The policy and planning challenges of e-bikes and e-scooters include the following: ï Managing their interactions with residents, pedestrians, conventional bicyclists, transit vehicles, trucks, and automobiles to maximize safety for all users of the city street. ï Identifying and enforcing parking sites that do not interfere with access to residences and business. ï Ensuring equitable access to e-bike and e-scooter services in lower density and lower income areas of the city. ï Ensuring generally consistent regulations among jurisdictions within the metropolitan or rural areas regarding how and when the vehicles may be used on sidewalks, in bike lanes, and in the travel lanes of streets. 2.2.8 Special Considerations for Rural Areas The lower density population and travel patterns of rural areas suggests that they may have difficulties attracting e-bike and e-scooter services. Rural areas may need to consider some form of intervention (ranging from subsidies to public-private partnerships) to secure shared e-bike and e-scooter services in their area. 2.3 AUTOMOBILE, MASS TRANSIT, FREIGHT TECHNOLOGIES Potentially transformative automobile technologies include: ï Alternative fuel vehicles ï Electric vehicles ï CVs ï AVs Alternative fuel vehicles rely on liquid or gaseous fuels besides gasoline and diesel for power. Electric vehicles rely on battery power. Connected vehicles exchange vehicle status information with each other and the roadside infrastructure. At the highest level of automation, which is the focus of this report when discussing potential impacts of AVs, AVs do not require a human driver. The technologies and their implications are described separately below. However, vehicles in the future probably will incorporate multiple technologies.
Page: 94 2.3.1 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Alternative fuel vehicles may use a variety of gaseous or liquid fuels (besides gasoline or diesel) to power their internal combustion engine. The fuels may be various kinds of natural gas (methane), such as compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from traditional petroleum sources, or from renewable sources, such as bio-methane and bio-diesel. Propane gas or butane gas, or various mixes of the two, may be the fuel. The alternative fuel may mix ethanol with gasoline. These alternative fuels and/or their power plants are generally (but not always) more expensive than traditional gasoline or diesel. Government subsidies and taxes can affect the comparative prices seen by the consumer. The alternative fuels have various air quality and sustainability benefits compared to gasoline. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is compatible with spark ignition engines (mono-fuel, bi-fuel, and hybrid). LPG offers advantages to conventional fuels in performance and emissions through direct inject technology. As a result, LPG is more commonly used in transport now with light and medium duty engines (such as buses and light trucks), rather than heavy duty engines because direct inject is not yet widely used in heavy duty engine applications. LPG may be used as a range extender in current or future hybrid powertrain technologies such as marine, train, or battery- electric vehicle applications. According to the World LPG Association, LPG as a fuel is used today in the following basic engine technologies, which can also be combined with hybrid electric powertrain technologies (World LPG Association, 2018): ï Spark ignition (Otto cycle) engines dedicated (mono fuel) engines ï Spark ignition (Otto cycle) engines bi-fuel gasoline-LPG engines ï Diesel compression ignition diesel/LPG dual fuel engines ï Turbine engines LNG is a better alternative fuel than CNG for long-distance trips or heavy-duty engines (such as long-haul, Federal Highway Administration [FHWA] class 7 or 8 truck tractor uses) (US Department of Energy, 2018) because in the liquid state, more LNG fuel can be stored on-board a vehicle compared with CNG. However, compared with a conventional diesel engine, LNG provides less range for the equivalent fuel storage capacity. Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), Biogas, or Biomethane is an alternative to conventional natural gas and can be used interchangeably in natural gas vehicles. RNG is a biogas from the decomposition of organic matter and is processed to meet the fuel standards. The sources of RNG include landfills, livestock operations, wastewater treatment, or even food manufacturing, wholesalers, supermarkets, restaurants, hospitals, and educational facilities (US Department of
Page: 95 Energy, 2018). In DeKalb County, Georgia, landfill gases are being collected and converted into CNG for sale to the public and to fuel CNG powered sanitation vehicles (Malone, 2018). Biodiesel is a diesel-like liquid fuel that is produced from vegetable oil or animal fat. It is designed to be a substitute for petroleum diesel in conventional diesel engines. Biodiesel may be mixed in varying proportions with petroleum diesel (from 2 percent to 100 percent). The optimal blend is selected based on each vehicleâs engine original equipment manufacturer recommendations (US Department of Energy, 2018). In contrast to petroleum diesel, biodiesel is safe to handle, store, and transport. Biodiesel enhances engine performance because of its better engine part lubrication and solvent characteristics. Biodiesel tends to degrade natural rubber gaskets and hoses faster than petroleum-based diesel (Wikipedia, 2018). 22.214.171.124 Deployment Status and Challenges: Alternative vehicle fuel technologies are already operational and available for pilot testing. They are the subject of several publicly subsidized pilot tests. Today, the most common alternative fuel used for engines is LPG (World LPG Association, 2018). CNG vehicles are produced by many large car manufacturers including Honda, Chevrolet, Dodge, Ford, and General Motors (GM). The two greatest limits on further expansion of the alternative vehicle fleet are lack of fueling stations and the limited infrastructure for producing and distributing the alternative fuel. Until a critical mass is reached in terms of vehicles that can burn the alternative fuels, the higher costs of the fuel, the limited fueling stations, and the higher costs of the vehicles will constrain expansion of alternative fuel vehicles. Currently, alternative fuel vehicles are generally more expensive to purchase than conventionally fueled vehicles. Maintenance and fuel may be cheaper in some cases, but with the specialized nature of the required maintenance and the limited number of refueling stations, potential purchasers may perceive owning and operating an alternative fuel vehicle as being riskier than with conventionally fueled vehicles. Further technological advances that reduce purchase prices, operating costs, and maintenance costs can change the perceived and actual cost differences between alternative fuel vehicles and conventionally fueled vehicles. Lower costs, government regulations, government subsidies, more ubiquitous refueling stations, and conventional fuel shortages can reduce the relative price point for alternative fueled vehicles to where they have significant cost advantages. Further cost savings for alternative fuel vehicles can be obtained through mass production, which will also drive growth in refueling stations.
Page: 96 126.96.36.199 Specific Examples There are many industrial, institutional, and commercial entities producing biogas. For example, Sacramento BioDigester produces 100 standard cubic feet per minute of gas, which corresponds to 450 diesel-gallon equivalent per day from a food waste digester. The fuel is used for Atlas Disposal waste hauling trucks (BioCNG, 2018). Many transit agencies, including MARTA in Atlanta, LACMTA in Los Angeles County, and WMATA in Washington, D.C. use CNG buses (US Department of Energy, 2003). Some heavy-duty freight vehicle manufacturers, including Kenworth and Sterling, offer natural gas-powered trucks. As a part of San Franciscoâs zero-emission fleet, 160 taxicabs are operating more than 1 million CNG miles per month in the city (C40 Cities, 2011). CNG buses were reported more reliable than the hybrids (SFMTA, 2002). Another city that implemented CNG buses over a decade ago is Portland, Oregon. More buses using alternative fuels were added in Greater Portland METRO in 2018 (Metro-Magazine, 2018). LPG has been a worldwide fuel for a long time. A case study on LPG for Michigan school buses in 2017 showed that the fuel cost of 125,000 miles was around 1/2 cent less per gallon than diesel. The project ran eight propane-powered buses and onsite fueling stations. Another case study comes from Delaware Transit Corporation, which has added propane buses to its fleet and converted more than 100 shuttles to LPG since 2014. The LPG fleet ran over 1.5 million miles in 2017, with cost savings of $1 million. The overall performance of vehicles was reported superior to that of diesel-powered models, with a simpler maintenance schedule and fewer oil changes (US Department of Energy, 2016). 188.8.131.52 Potential Impacts on Travel: Since the ranges and speeds of alternative fuel vehicles are similar to those of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, this technology is not anticipated to significantly change travel demand in the short term. The higher vehicle purchase costs (until mass production is able to lower the costs) are also likely to limit the impact of alternative fuel vehicles on travel. Looking at the long-term, shortages of conventional fuels may enable travelers to benefit from the alternative fuel options to reduce their overall costs, including maintenance. These direct economic advantages, along with the long-term positive effects on vehicle emissions and energy independence, may drive greater market penetration by alternative fuels. 184.108.40.206 Land Use and Streetscape Implications: The number of gasoline and diesel refueling stations has been declining in the U.S. for several years, which is the result of industry consolidation. Alternative fuel vehicles, however, will need an increase in dedicated refueling stations to increase their market penetration. Alternative fuel vehicles are unlikely to have other effects on regional land use or streetscape design.
Page: 97 Biofuels will have a direct impact on land use. They bring economic value to domestic industrial, institutional, and commercial entities such as landfills, livestock operations, and wastewater treatment. In the urban areas, sources of biodecomposition can include food manufacturing and wholesalers, supermarkets, restaurants, hospitals, and educational facilities. In the long-term, replacing fossil fuels with biofuels can control conventional and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollutant emissions, exhaustible resource depletion, and instability of foreign suppliers. However, major growth in the biofuel industry requires land and water. For this reason, research suggests that biofuel production may adversely affect communities by consuming rural lands to establish facilities. As a result, land and water that is currently available for farming and producing food may be reduced in size or quality (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2018). 220.127.116.11 Highway Infrastructure Implications No highway design modifications are anticipated to be needed for alternative fuel vehicles. 18.104.22.168 Implications for Logistics To the extent that vehicle purchase and operating costs are similar or higher than for conventional diesel trucks, alternative fuel vehicles are not anticipated to significantly affect logistics practices. 22.214.171.124 Policy and Planning Challenges Alternative fuel vehicles have the potential to significantly reduce pollutant emissions and reduce dependence on oil. The policy and planning challenge is to identify the desired mix of alternative fuel vehicles, electric vehicles, and conventionally powered vehicles in the future vehicle fleet, and then to identify the appropriate mix of regulations and incentives to achieve that mix. One of the major challenges facing public agencies considering policies for promoting alternative fuels is the plethora of alternative fuels. There is no clear âwinner,â although electric vehicles (covered in Section 3.3.2) do appear to be the current leader. Promoting all alternative fuels dilutes the governmentâs efforts. Picking a single fuel to promote risks betting on the wrong technology. Until clear winners emerge, a public agency might take a cautious approach that promotes alternative fuels in general without picking a single fuel to promote. Options for Facilitating the Technology: National, state, and local governments have various taxation, regulation, and subsidization options for promoting alternative fuel vehicles. These options include favorable treatment of alternative fuel vehicles in parking regulations, vehicle property tax credits, income tax credits for alternative fuel vehicles purchases, and sales tax exemptions for alternative fuel purchases. Probably the most critical action by public agencies for promoting alternative fuel use is establishing public policies and regulations for encouraging the location of alternative fuel stations within the urban area, along major intercity freeways, and in small urban centers located in rural areas.
Page: 98 Land Use Planning for Alternative Fuels: As fuel stations continue to consolidate and land values climb, it will become increasingly difficult to locate new fuel stations for alternative fuels within urban areas. Environmental regulations may further inhibit locating new fuel stations in urban areas. Zoning regulations might be modified to encourage consolidation of single fuel stations into multi-fuel stations in urban areas. Conditions of approval for any new or enlarged fuel station might include the requirement to provide multiple fuel options. Federal agencies will be concerned with establishing national environmental, performance, and safety regulations for alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles. Key decision makers will be the legislative and executive branches of government. State agencies will be concerned with establishing environmental policies, vehicle licensing, refueling station licenses, and taxation regulations for alternative fuels, and alternative fuel vehicles. Preserving transportation revenue streams will be a key concern. Key decision makers will be the legislative and executive branches of government. County and city agencies will be concerned with establishing local zoning, parking, licensing, and taxation regulations for alternative fuel stations and alternative fuel vehicles. Metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) will be concerned with assisting cities and counties in coordinating local regulations and securing federal funding for their activities. Public transit operators and private fleet owners/operators will be interested in taking advantage of the economic benefits of alternative fuel vehicles and the associated government regulations to promote their use. Producers of alternative natural fuels, such as oil refineries, landfills, livestock operations, and wastewater treatment facilities, will be interested in taking advantage of government subsidies and regulations that favor the production and use of alternative fuels. 126.96.36.199 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Locating fueling stations and the support infrastructure to serve those stations will be a significant challenge for expanded deployment of alternative fuel vehicles in rural areas. Signing to direct unfamiliar travelers in rural areas to the appropriate alternative fuel station might be critical.
Page: 99 2.3.2 Electric Vehicles Electric vehicles (EVs) use an electric motor as their motive power. The electricity may be provided by overhead wire, third rail, a battery, solar cells, fuel cells, or internal combustion engines. Overhead wires and third rails have been deployed for over 100 years with transit vehicles, and solar cell-powered EVs still appear to have significant technological challenges, so this reference focuses on the emerging varieties of EVs employing new battery or fuel cell technologies. There are a wide variety of EVs. Some might run strictly on batteries. Some might use an internal combustion engine in parallel with the electric motor. Still others might use a fuel cell to power the electric motor. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by on-board batteries. There are a wide variety of electric vehicles options: automobiles, transit vehicles, trucks, UAVs, e-bikes, e-scooters, electric skateboards, e-skates, and even electric unicycles. Their range is limited by the size of their battery. To overcome range limitations of BEVS, several variations on the electric vehicle concept have been developed and are currently commercially available. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have two powertrains: one is electric with a battery that drives the electric motor; the other is a traditional internal combustion engine. The internal combustion engine takes over when the power requirements are greater than can be provided by the battery (usually higher speeds and longer range). Both powertrains may be employed under high demand conditions, such as climbing a steep hill (McEachern, 2012). HEVs cannot be plugged in to recharge. PHEVs can be plugged in to recharge. PHEVs generally have a larger and more powerful battery than HEVs. The added complexity of PHEVs and their larger batteries generally make them more expensive to purchase than an HEV (Travers, 2018). PHEVs depend on petroleum, and the electricity mode is only possible when fully charged. PHEVs are a good option for driving long distances with scarce charging stations along the road (Indiana Office of Energy Development, 2018). Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) have a hydrogen fuel cell on board that converts hydrogen electricity to power the vehicle. HFCVs can be fueled quickly, like traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles, provide a long driving range, and emit only water and warm air (US Department of Energy, 2018).
Page: 100 188.8.131.52 Deployment Status and Challenges Electric vehicles are all currently available in the marketplace. The purchase costs and operating costs of BEVs over the 20-year lifetime of the vehicle are significantly higher than for comparable gasoline-powered vehicles (see Exhibit 3). Early adopters of these technologies have been somewhat insulated from these costs through various government tax incentives and the availability of public free recharging stations. Besides cost, other significant constraints on further market penetration of BEVs are their limited range (compared to conventionally powered vehicles), lengthy recharging times, and the comparative rarity of recharging stations, especially outside of major urban areas. The hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs) have ranges comparable to those of conventionally fueled vehicles. Federal tax incentives for EV purchases are a tax credit of $7,500 per vehicle. These incentives are cut in half when the manufacturer has sold 200,000 EVs, then phased completely out in the following 12 months (Boudette, 2019). California has implemented a clean air vehicle sticker program that allows single occupant vehicles to access the high-occupancy vehicles lanes. Federal requirements require the state to maintain HOV lane speeds in order to continue the sticker program. The technical and economic challenges to more extensive BEV deployment are travel range per charge, availability of recharging stations, the charging time, and vehicle cost. Electricity is often subsidized for EVs (provided for free or included in the house electric bill); however, as EV market penetration increases, there will come a time when the cost and environmental consequences of generating electricity will become a challenge to further EV deployments. Recycling and/or disposal of exhausted batteries may be an environmental condition.
Page: 101 Exhibit 3: Lifetime Ownership Costs of Conventional and Battery Electric Vehicles Adapted from: John W. Brennan, Timothy E. Barder, Battery Electric Vehicles vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles, A United States-Based Comprehensive Assessment, Arthur D Little, 2016 Range: Battery range is the primary short-term technological challenge to greater market penetration by BEVs. This is especially challenging on long trips for vehicles in applications such as long-distance buses or freight movement fleets. Hybrid vehicles overcome this limitation by using fuels to extend the range of the batteries. Cold temperatures reduce EV range (Reichmuth, 2016). Recharging Stations: Another challenge for EVs, like alternative fuel vehicles, is being range- dependent due to the limited number of charging stations. There are between 100,000 and 160,000 gas and diesel fueling stations in the US, while there are about 22,000 public and private EV charging sites and stations (EVAdoption, 2017). (The reader may notice that the number of fuel and recharging stations varies by source. In 2011, the USDOE started tallying the number of charging plugs, rather than the number of sites where plugs are available. The average number of plugs per site is on the order of three. For non-EVs, the number of stations tallied is equal to the number of sites, not the number of refueling pumps) The challenges of locating suitable charging stations can significantly affect the perceived dependability of EVsâ applications in personal long-distance trips, ridesharing, and freight movement. For a relatively new technology, the current number and location of charging stations is promising, but policy changes may be needed to increase the coverage and the enhanced development of the EV charging infrastructure across the country to support a larger fleet of EVs. Charging Time: Charging time is another short-term technological challenge for EVs. Currently, there are three levels of charging offered for EVs: 110V (Level 1, conventional wall outlets in the US), 220V (Level 2, most common public charging level), and 330V or DC fast charging (Level 3). In
Page: 102 an evacuation scenario (such as a hurricane evacuation from Key West, Florida), the time that it currently takes to recharge an EV at standard 110V or 220V rates does not make it feasible to travel long distances in a comparable amount of time to a fuel-powered vehicle (Adderly, 2018). A 3-hour recharge cannot compare to a 5-minute refueling stop. HFCVs overcome the long charging times of battery-powered electric vehicles. However, there are currently very few HFCV refueling stations in the U.S. The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) lists less than 50 public hydrogen fueling stations in the entire U.S. (compared to 160,000 gasoline stations in the U.S.) (US Energy Information Administration, 2012). All the listed hydrogen fueling stations are in California. Many HFCVs are run by fleets because they can have their own fueling station back at the yard or garage. Cost: The purchase cost of the technology for these vehicles is higher than gasoline and diesel vehicles. According to Kellyâs Bluebook, a mid-sized HFCV can be double to triple the price of its gasoline equivalent. On Kelly Bluebook, a new Honda Clarity Fuel Cell is about $60,000, which is about three times the price of a new gasoline-powered Honda Civic (Kelley Blue Book, 2018). It is likely that prices would come down if market share were to reach levels to support mass production of these vehicles. EV battery technology is improving every day. As the battery technology improves, the price will come down. The price will also come down if the market penetration for EVs were to enter higher levels of mass production. EV operating costs per mile may be higher or lower than that for internal combustion vehicles, depending on the fuel costs (for hybrids), cost of power generation and distribution, and the extent to which public agencies subsidize the delivery of electric power to the EVs. A study comparing the operating costs of electric school buses to diesel buses found that electric school buses cost about 19 cents per mile (excluding battery replacement costs and driver) versus 82 cents per mile for a diesel bus (excluding the driver). The primary difference is fuel cost. Variations in local electricity rates can change this (Descant, Electric Buses are Not Only Clean but Less Costly to Run,â Future Structure, 2018). EV maintenance costs are expected to be lower for non-hybrid EVs. Fully electric vehicles do not require oil changes because they use batteries and electric motors in place of the internal combustion engine, transmission, alternator, and hydraulic brake and steering pumps. However, batteries (an expensive component for EVs) may need to be replaced when they can no longer hold a charge. Hybrids over the lifetime of the vehicle will probably have higher maintenance costs than conventional vehicles because they have to maintain both the batteries and the internal combustion engine and associated powertrain components. Electricity Generation: The long-term challenge to greater penetration of the vehicle fleet by non- hybrid EVs will be constructing the necessary electric power generation facilities; finding the fuel,
Page: 103 wind, or solar sources for that power generation; and augmenting the capacity of the current electric distribution network. Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts that electric vehicles may reach 50 percent of new car sales in the U.S. by 2035 (Triveti, 2018) (see Exhibit 4). There would be a 10- to 15-year lag after that before EVs reached the same percentage of the operating U.S. passenger car fleet. Exhibit 4: Forecasted U.S. Passenger Car Sales for Electric Vehicles The California Air Quality Board recently adopted a regulation requiring emission-free buses (electric or hydrogen fueled) by 2040. Bus operators in the state must begin purchasing zero emission buses by 2020. Several exceptions to this regulation are allowed (Descant, California Regulation Sets Course for Emission-Free Buses by 2040, Future, 2018). Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report S-130, Battery Electric Buses, (Hanlin, Reffaway, & Lane, 2018) documents current transit system practices deploying battery electric buses. 184.108.40.206 Specific Examples Electric passenger cars, trucks, and buses are in various stages of pilot testing and commercial deployment. EV passenger cars: Based on EV sales, the global EV stock in passenger cars increased to more than 2 million EVs from 2010 to 2016. The U.S. has the second largest market after China for EV sales (International Energy Agency, 2017). In contrast to conventional car ownership, many drivers of EVs prefer to lease rather than own to take the advantage of the immediate federal income-tax EV
Page: 104 credit, and on the expectation of better models to come in the near future. Teslaâs EV models are an exception, which people prefer to own rather than lease (Voelcker, 2018). Honda currently is leasing an HFCV, the Clarity. They are currently subsidizing the fuel costs for the first 3 years, up to $15,000 (Honda, 2018). EV Trucks: In 2017, Tesla started Tesla Semi, a heavy-duty all-electric truck program. Tesla Semi electric truck prototype was traveling in the Midwest as part of the automakerâs test program ahead of the vehicleâs production in 2019 (Electrek, 2019). Another example is Nikola One, a hybrid truck consuming hydrogen fuel (Nikola, 2018). Although HFCVs are not as established as natural gas vehicles in the U.S., the National Renewable Energy Laboratory says that there are eight transit agencies, including MBTA in Boston, Massachusetts, and SunLine Transit in Thousand Palms, California, running at least one HFCV in their transit fleet in 2018 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2018). All of these hydrogen fuel cell buses are federally funded demonstration or evaluation projects. The Champaign-Urbana Fuel Cell Bus Deployment in Illinois is an example of zero-emission fuel cell electric buses. This project will be the first commercial deployment of its kind. This project deploys two fuel cell buses and installs a hydrogen refueling station with on-site generation. The goal is a better energy consumption efficiency and a lower GHG emission (Center for Transportation and Environment, 2018). EV Buses: There have been many demonstration projects for Proterra and other electric vehicle buses. The Center for Transportation and Environment has managed many transit team research, development, and demonstration projects, such as the Mountain Line Electric Bus Deployment in Missoula, Montana (Center for Transportation and Environment, 2018). 220.127.116.11 Potential Impacts on Travel EVs are currently more expensive to purchase than conventionally-powered vehicles. Their operating and maintenance costs can be significantly lower than for conventional vehicles, if one does not consider the eventual cost of replacing the batteries when they will no longer hold a charge. Current government incentives (tax credits and free public recharging stations) greatly reduce the perceived cost of owning and operating an EV. Mass production and advancements in technology might further reduce EV purchase and operating costs. The ultimate impact of EVs on travel will depend on the extent to which manufacturers and government subsidies reduce the initial costs and perceived operating costs of EVs. Note that current federal tax incentives for purchasers of EVs phase out when the manufacturer has sold a cumulative 200,000 EVs. State tax incentives may have other âsunsetâ provisions.
Page: 105 Charging locations: Generally, an increase in EVs can mean a decrease in the need for gas or diesel fueling stations. EVs can usually be charged in locations where they would otherwise already be parked. A rise in EVs may lead to an increase in supercharger stations or inductive charging locations, which may be provided at a site that is specific for charging, similar to current gas or diesel fueling stations. Because of the long recharge times required by current battery technology, the location needs of electric recharging stations are different than for other fueling stations. While conventional fuel stations are located where the traffic is flowing, recharging stations are best located within walking distances of places where EVs will be parked for a long time, such as at residences and employment centers. However, as recharging technology improves, EV charging station needs may evolve to be closer to that of conventionally powered vehicles. Activity Centers: The activity centers that currently exist around refueling stations may change to cater to an EV-charging client. A 5-minute refueling trip may be replaced by a 30-minute to 3-hour charging time, so charging locations must provide amenities for customers while they wait to charge. Rather than providing quick snacks, recharging stations might offer amenities geared toward a 30- to 60-minute visit, such as coffee shops, hair or nail salons, diners, or even roller- skating rinks (Rogers S. , 2018). Charging: In the long term, automated/autonomous EVs will require inductive charging in the locations where the vehicle parks itself. The short-term solution is to provide a charging attendant to plug in self-parking vehicles. 18.104.22.168 Land Use and Streetscape Implications The direct land use impact of EVs will be on the proliferation of recharging stations in parking garages, lots, and curbside to support EVs. Shopping centers and office parking lots may have designated EV parking spaces and charging stations. 22.214.171.124 Highway Infrastructure Implications No design modifications are anticipated to be needed for EVs in the short term. The inclusion of power strips on the highway to run EVs is a long-term possibility. 126.96.36.199 Potential Implications for Logistics The logistics industry is currently testing electric trucks. Mass production may enable EV manufacturers to reduce manufacturing costs.
Page: 106 188.8.131.52 Policy and Planning Challenges Electric vehicles can significantly reduce air pollutant emissions from vehicles but will require significant upgrades to the current electrical generation, distribution, and storage system to accommodate a significant increase in EVs in the vehicle fleet. Crashes: One concern to emerge recently is dealing with crashes and vehicle fires involving EVs. Damaged batteries can re-ignite in storage (Green & Salonga, 2018). Electric Power Generation: Another EV concern is that the U.S. electric generation and distribution grid would not be able to accommodate a sudden shift to EVs by the motor fleet; however; it may be able to support gradual transition with additional generation and distribution infrastructure investments (Davidson, Tuttle, Rhodes, & Nagasawa, 2018) (Triveti, 2018). Recharging Facilities: EVs will require a significant increase in recharging facilities in locations where vehicles may be parked for significant periods of time. Significant advances in recharging technology may open up other locations, like gasoline stations, to be used for recharging. Subsidies: Until mass production is able to reduce the cost differential for EVs, sustained subsidies may be required to promote greater EV use. A policy challenge will be ensuring that such subsidies go equitably to higher and lower income residents. Energy Security and Readiness: Energy security is an advantage of EVs (US Department of Energy, 2018). In 2015, the U.S. imported 24 percent of its petroleum. EVs can support the U.S. economy and help to diversify transportation fleetsâ public awareness campaigns, educational programming, market research, and commuter behavior studies. Community leaders and planners can assess their community's EV readiness by using the alternative fuels data center from the USDOE. Based on the assessment results, EV-related projects can be implemented in long-term and short-term planning. The USDOE provides EV users with fuels-related information such as benefits, laws, and incentives, as well as station locations. Effective solutions offered for EV purchase include federal tax credits for charging equipment for businesses and investors, utility incentives for businesses and organizations to install public charging equipment, and tax credits for new EVs and PHEVs. Route Guidance: Until range limitations of current battery technology can be solved, high quality route guidance will take on greater importance. Information sharing is critical for intelligent route guidance; it informs drivers or automated/autonomous driving systems of trip length, roadway grade, road closures, ambient temperature, and other factors that may affect the vehicle range if EVs are used for making longer trips, such as ride hailing service or medium- to long-haul trucking. Parking Enforcement: Limited charging locations and increasing EV demand require enforcement to ensure that vehicles are parked at chargers only when actively charging. Many parking agencies enforce maximum durations for charging to ensure that the chargers are made
Page: 107 available to more vehicles. The limited charging locations also require agencies to educate and to enforce parking for EVs similar to ADA parking space enforcement. Otherwise, EVs can get âICEdâ out of the charging station (when an internal combustion engine [ICE] vehicle parks in an EV space and blocks access to the charger). Funding Stream Concerns: Losing the current financial revenue from the gas tax due to improved fuel efficiency or alternative fuels such as battery electric could affect the maintenance of roads and infrastructure by $3 billion with only 20 percent EV market penetration (Connor, 2018). Encouraging the Technology: Actions that public agencies can take to support EVs consist of regulations, subsidies, and direct investments. ï Tax incentives or direct subsidies may be used to encourage EV purchases. ï Zoning regulations may be modified to require or encourage the location of EV charging stations in private and public parking garages and lots. ï On-street parking meters may be adapted to include electrical outlets. Inductive loops may be placed in the pavement to charge EVs. ï Property tax credits may be given for EV stations and for EVs. ï Sales tax credit may be given for EV purchases. Toll and parking rate reductions may be given to EVs. ï EVs may be allowed discounted or free use of certain facilities to bypass congestion, such as high-occupancy vehicle (HOV), high-occupancy toll (HOT), or express lanes. ï The agency may invest in installing EV charging stations in its public facilities. ï Taxes on conventional fuels and conventionally fueled vehicles may be raised. ï Agencies may subsidize or invest in electric power generation and distribution grids. Concerned Decision makers: Federal agencies will be concerned with establishing national environmental, performance, and safety regulations for electric vehicles. Key decision makers will be the legislative and executive branches of government. State agencies will be concerned with establishing vehicle licensing, recharging station licenses, and taxation regulations for EV recharging stations as well as for the EVs themselves. Key decision makers will be the legislative and executive branches of government. County and city agencies will be concerned with establishing local zoning, parking, licensing, and taxation regulations for EV charging stations and for EVs. EVs may be given discounted or priority access to certain public facilities (parking lots, curb parking, HOV lanes, etc.). MPOs will be concerned with assisting cities and counties in coordinating local regulations and securing federal funding for their activities. Public transit operators and private fleet owners/operators will be interested in taking advantage of the economic benefits of EVs and the associated government regulations to promote their use.
Page: 108 Producers of electricity will be interested in taking advantage of government subsidies and regulations favoring the production and use of electricity for transportation. 184.108.40.206 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Locating recharging stations and upgrading the residential and commercial power grid will be significant challengers to deployment of EVs in rural areas. 2.3.3 Connected Vehicles Image Â© Kittelson & Associates, Inc., used by permission. CVs may talk to each other (V2V communications) and to the roadside infrastructure (V2I). Vehicles could exchange basic information like location, speed, and status, or they could exchange more sophisticated information like destination, payload, and on-time status. The infrastructure might inform the vehicle of downstream conditions and recommend a speed. The on-board unit in a CV displays the information it receives and may issue auditory notifications to the driver. The driver decides (or the computer decides if it is a self-driving vehicle) what to do with the information. Note that CVs are not the same as proximity sensor-equipped vehicles. CVs can only talk to other compatibly equipped CVs or roadside units. They cannot detect non-CVs on the road without proximity sensors being added to the vehicle.
Page: 109 V2V connectivity and V2I connectivity can potentially accomplish a wide range of safety and facility performance improvements. But they can accomplish little by themselves. The information that is being transmitted by the vehicles must be put to use in some way. V2I is much more effective when the agency or fleet operator has an active management plan (traffic, parking, demand) to change facility controls and operations in response to V2I information. Without agency involvement, V2I is little more than another provider of facility status to the vehicle driver. Drivers with in-dash and dash-mounted smart phones and navigation devices can obtain the same facility information over the cellular network through many smartphone applications. Similarly, V2V information is of less use to the driver than vehicle-mounted sensors because such sensors can detect the proximity of all vehicles and objects, not just those equipped with V2V transponders. V2V comes into its own when it is combined with driver assist and automated/autonomous sell-driving technologies that cut the human driver out of the loop. Finally, while significant safety benefits can accrue when 10 to 20 percent of vehicles are CV- equipped, (Dowling, Skabardonis, Barrios, Jia, & Nevers, 2015) the potential facility management benefits of connected vehicles are greatly amplified when closer to 100 percent of vehicles are connected. More aggressive traffic management options become available when 100 percent connectivity is combined with 100 percent automated/autonomous vehicles. 220.127.116.11 Specific Examples The FHWA is funding CV application pilot projects in Columbus, Ohio; Wyoming; Tampa, Florida; and New York City. These cities and the Wyoming DOT are testing different safety applications of the connected vehicle technology. Tampa is also testing a traffic signal control application of connected vehicles for buses and for automobiles (multimodal intelligent traffic signal system [MMITSS]). There are also various state DOT-funded pilot tests ongoing or planned. The Ohio DOT is partnering with Honda to test CV applications in 1,200 vehicles at two dozen signals in Marysville, Ohio. The Colorado DOT is testing 100 roadside units along 90 miles of Interstate 70 around Vail (Descant, Ohio Eyes New Connected Vehicle Test, One of Several in US, 2018). 18.104.22.168 Deployment Status and Challenges V2V and V2I currently are implemented using two-way DSRC in the 5.9-GHz band. Some automobile manufacturers are building in DSRC units into their new vehicles. The range of DSRC communications is on the order of 300 meters (900 feet). DSRC transceivers (OBUs) must be installed in the connected vehicles themselves for V2V communications and along the roadside (roadside units [RSUs]) for V2I communications.
Page: 110 Cellular network services claim that 5G wireless systems will provide the low-latency and higher- capacity communications services needed for V2V or V2I functions, without requiring the roadside DSRC installations by public agencies. 5G currently is anticipated to be transmitted in three electromagnetic band ranges; the band range may vary by carrier. The lower frequency band has greater range, better penetration of buildings, and higher latency than the higher frequency bands. The highest frequency 5G band may require transmitters every few hundred feet, depending on conditions (Winkelman, What is 5G? Hereâs everything you need to know , 2019). An alternative communications protocol, called C-V2X (cellular vehicle to everything to distinguish it from DSRC vehicle to everything â V2X), is being promoted by the cellular network industry (Alleven, FCCâs OâRielly: 5.9 GHz band is âa messâ, 2018). The technical challenges for the future of CVs are related mostly to: ï Regulatory uncertainty ï Market penetration ï Infrastructure costs Regulator Uncertainty: There is the uncertainty about the future of the communications band currently allocated for DSRC communications. The FCC allocation of the bandwidth for DSRC is temporary. 5G cell phone providers would like access to that band (Alleven, FCCâs OâRielly: 5.9 GHz band is âa messâ, 2018). Market Penetration: The value of CVs increases as more vehicles are equipped with the CV technology. Currently, only some and not all new vehicles are being equipped with DSRC in the U.S., and some manufacturers are considering the alternative C-V2X technology. Until a technical method is developed to retrofit existing vehicles with CV (and federal incentives or regulations developed to spur CV installations), the U.S. will not reach 100 percent CVs for a long time. The average age of light duty motor vehicles on the road in the U.S. is currently 11.6 years (as of 2016). New vehicles currently account for 7 percent of the fleet, so it would take about 15 years from 2019 for the vehicle fleet to turn over to all CVs (Schwartz, 2018). Infrastructure Costs: The cost of installing roadside DSRC units and communications in the field will limit the facilities and the speed with which V2I can be implemented. Rural areas and lightly traveled roads with few facility management challenges may be the last to see roadside DSRC units installed. 22.214.171.124 Specific Examples Some car manufacturers already have direct communications to their vehicles via the cellular network (for example, Toyota and General Motors OnStar). Toyota and Lexus announced they would deploy DSRC in the U.S. (Alleven, FCCâs OâRielly: 5.9 GHz band is âa messâ, 2018) Other manufacturers have announced the installation of DSRC units in some models after 2020 (e.g.,
Page: 111 Cadillac and Ford). (Abuelsamid, 2018), (Alleven, Qualcomm, Ford and Panasonic mark first U.S. C-V2X deployment in Colorado, 2018) Transit Signal Priority (TSP) is an established example of connected vehicle technology. In a TSP system, a communication device (often DSRC) on the transit vehicle communicates with the roadside infrastructure at a traffic signal to alert the signal of the approaching transit vehicle. If the vehicle is running behind schedule, the signal timing may be changed to extend the green phase to allow the transit vehicle to catch up on its schedule. If the vehicle is not running behind schedule, the signal controller will reject the TSP request and continue with the planned cycle timing. The U.S. Department of Transportationâs (USDOT) first long-term, real-world connected vehicle demonstration was the Safety Pilot Model Deployment, which was deployed in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in 2011 for more than 2 years to evaluate DSRC for V2V safety applications. (Bezzina, 2015), (Wyoming DOT, 2018) More recently, the USDOT has sponsored the Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployment (CVPD) program, which includes V2V and V2I DSRC communications in Tampa, Florida; New York City, New York; the I-80 corridor across Wyoming; and the Smart Columbus Smart Cities Challenge deployment in Columbus, Ohio. The New York City and Tampa CVPD sites also include vehicle- or infrastructure-to-pedestrian applications (US Department of Transportation, 2018). The CVPD sites consist of three deployment phases: ï Phase 1: Concept Development ï Phase 2: Design/Deploy/Test ï Phase 3: Operate and Maintain They are currently in Phase 2: Design/Deploy/Test. Some specific examples of connected vehicle technology include Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) combined with automatic emergency braking and audio alerts (CACC-AB), forward collision warning, red-light running violation warnings, and intersection movement assist (to warn drivers of potential intersection conflict crashes). CACC communicates directly with vehicles in its range of communication. Currently, researchers study this feature in simulators and simulations (Roldan, Inman, Balk, & Philips, 2018). The USDOTâs CVPD Program sites are studying forward collision warning, red-light running violation warnings, and other CV applications. In addition, some car manufacturers also offer traffic jam assistance enabled through V2V for low speed and high traffic congestion. Many of the CV technologies are similar to driver assistance technologies that rely on in-vehicle sensors to detect the roadway environment and other vehicles. Adding connected communication between vehicles or the roadside infrastructure and other vehicles enables advanced detection, redundancy, and improved confidence to not only warn drivers but also take action (such as automatic braking).
Page: 112 126.96.36.199 Potential Impacts on Travel CVs are expected to reduce the frequency of crashes, thereby reducing unexpected delays due to crashes. The improved travel time reliability may modestly increase vehicle travel (both trips and distance) at the expense of other modes of travel. The CV technology by itself is expected to have minor impacts on traffic delays. CV technology in combination with other technologies, like self-driving vehicles (AVs), will have significantly magnified impacts. CVs, when combined with intelligent road infrastructure, active management plans, and automated/autonomous driving capabilities, result in reduced crash frequency and severity, higher roadway capacity (when combined with active traffic management), and reduced fuel consumption (due to reduced congestion related to higher capacities) (Barnes, Turkel, Moreland, & Pragg, 2017). These effects translate into lower vehicle operating costs, which in turn affect mode choice, trip generation, and distribution. In the early years of CV deployment, the low market penetration rate for CVs and the small percentage of CV-enabled highway facilities will limit the benefits of vehicle communication (V2V and V2I). More information about routing, weather, congested areas, and parking availability can influence usersâ decisions to make a trip. With connected vehicles, routing can be assigned by real-time data-driven artificial intelligence rather than driversâ habits and limitations. After the early stages of CV deployment, the ease of driving could bring more private vehicles and more travel demand on the limited roadway capacity. Vehicle connectivity with intelligent infrastructure management can enhance the reliability of public transport for urban areas. The result could serve people with disabilities, lower income populations, or residents of congested areas (INRIX, 2017). 188.8.131.52 Land Use and Streetscape Implications Lower travel costs favor increased economic development, increased land values in the vicinity of the improvement, and dispersed land use. Improvements in travel time reliability might modestly increase the pressure to develop land on the fringes of urban areas. If CV deployments are limited only to a few high congestion freeways in an urban area, the land use impacts may be limited. Streetscape designs would need to incorporate RSUs for DSRC or 5G transceivers. 184.108.40.206 Highway Infrastructure Implications Highway designs will need to be modified to provide for RSUs and communications back to a central office. Designs will need to be developed for retrofitting RSUs onto existing highways.
Page: 113 220.127.116.11 Potential Implications for Logistics CV technology will make government operators of highway facilities and wayfinding applications more aware of congestion conditions. The technology should also reduce crashes. Fewer crashes and less uncertainty about delays will improve on-time delivery of goods. 18.104.22.168 Policy and Planning Challenges Steve Kuciemba, chair of the Institute of Transportation Engineersâ Connected Vehicle/Automated Vehicle Steering Committee, identified six steps for agencies to prepare for CVs and AVs (Kuciemba, 2018). ï Build on the Transportation System Management and Operations philosophy ï Self-assessment, set goals, identify resources needed, engage stakeholders, evaluate and adjust. ï Identify a starting point, a pilot project. ï Explore partnerships. ï Integrate CV and AV considerations into planning. ï Take a deliberate, measured approach. ï Maintain perspective â it will be difficult. Privacy: Connected vehicles may create a privacy problem for drivers with vehicle manufacturers, software application developers, and public agencies gathering data on the movement of the vehicle (Gephardt, 2018). Choice of Technology for Investment: The primary policy and planning challenges are whether to continue to invest in the proven DSRC technology or to wait on the commercial development of 5G, which could still be several years off given the required investment in transmitter stations. Given the potentially high startup costs, the commercial sector may choose to install 5G only in major urban areas, where the market is greater, and neglect rural areas. If DSRC is pursued, public funding limitations will limit initial deployments to high congestion urban freeways. A secondary challenge will be getting the public to buy and install the DSRC devices in their older vehicles. Public agencies could also rely on manufacturers installing DSRC in their newer vehicles and then wait on natural turnover of the vehicle fleet to increase the market penetration of DSRC-equipped vehicles. The risk is that the FCC may assign the DSRC band to other uses. Concerned Decision Makers: Federal agencies will be concerned with establishing national environmental, performance, and safety regulations and communication standards for connectivity between vehicles and to transportation management centers). Key decision makers will be the FCC and the USDOT in the executive branch of government.
Page: 114 State agencies will be concerned with constructing any roadside infrastructure for communicating with vehicles via DSRC. They will be concerned with constructing intelligent transportation infrastructure and developing management protocols for utilizing the data and communicating with the driving public. They will also be concerned with having adequate technical knowledge of staff in maintenance, operations, and data management. Key decision makers will be the state DOT in the executive branch of government. County and city agencies will be concerned with constructing intelligent infrastructure, developing facility management protocols to take advantage of the CV information, and maintaining staff with the knowledge to maintain and operate the systems. MPOs will be concerned with assisting cities and counties in coordinating local regulations and securing federal funding for their activities. Public transit operators and private fleet owners/operators will be interested in taking advantage of the benefits of vehicle connectivity. 22.214.171.124 Special Considerations for Rural Areas The required heavy initial investment in DSRC roadside units or 5G towers (and connecting fiber) will likely delay deployment of CVs in rural areas unless government subsidies or regulations are employed to spur deployment in rural areas. 2.3.4 Automated/Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicles The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines five levels of automation, ranging from limited driver assistance like cruise control to fully self-driving vehicles (see Exhibit 5). This reference focuses on the most transformational level of automation, the fully self-driving vehicle (Level 5). At this level, self-driving vehicles are capable of performing all driving tasks under all conditions within their defined operational design domain (parking lot, freeway, city street, etc.). An automated/autonomous vehicle may be self-driving only in certain operational design domains. The human driver may be required to intervene outside of those design domains. The operational design domains are the specific conditions under which a given automated driving system (ADS) or feature is intended to function, such as the roadway types, geographic area, vehicle speeds, or environmental conditions (weather, darkness, etc.) (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2019). Remote control is an additional option for replacing or supporting the human or ADS in the vehicle. Remote control may be useful in unique situations, such as diverting traffic onto wrong- way travel lanes to evacuate vehicles after a major crash or extreme weather events. Remote control may also be useful as machine-learning algorithms are learning how to handle less common driving situations like double-parked vehicles on two-lane streets or temporary work zones.
Page: 115 Exhibit 5: Society of Automotive Engineers Levels of Vehicle Automation Level Title Description 0 NoÂ AutomationÂ ZeroÂ autonomy;Â theÂ driverÂ performsÂ allÂ drivingÂ tasks.Â 1 DriverÂ AssistanceÂ VehicleÂ isÂ controlledÂ byÂ driver,Â butÂ someÂ drivingÂ assistÂ featuresÂ mayÂ beÂ includedÂ inÂ theÂ vehicleÂ design.Â 2 PartialÂ AutomationÂ VehicleÂ hasÂ combinedÂ automatedÂ functions,Â likeÂ accelerationÂ andÂ steering,Â butÂ theÂ driverÂ mustÂ remainÂ engagedÂ withÂ theÂ drivingÂ taskÂ andÂ monitorÂ theÂ environmentÂ atÂ allÂ times.Â 3 ConditionalÂ AutomationÂ DriverÂ isÂ aÂ necessityÂ butÂ isÂ notÂ requiredÂ toÂ monitorÂ theÂ environment.Â TheÂ driverÂ mustÂ beÂ readyÂ toÂ takeÂ controlÂ ofÂ theÂ vehiclesÂ atÂ allÂ timesÂ withÂ notice.Â 4 HighÂ AutomationÂ TheÂ vehicleÂ canÂ performÂ allÂ drivingÂ functionsÂ underÂ certainÂ conditions.Â TheÂ driverÂ mayÂ haveÂ theÂ optionÂ toÂ controlÂ theÂ vehicle.Â 5 FullÂ AutomationÂ (SelfÂ Drive)Â TheÂ vehicleÂ canÂ performÂ allÂ drivingÂ functionsÂ underÂ allÂ conditions.Â TheÂ driverÂ mayÂ haveÂ theÂ optionÂ toÂ controlÂ theÂ vehicle.Â Source: National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA). 2017. Automated Driving Systems 2.0: A Vision for Safety. Washington, DC. DOT HS 812 442 126.96.36.199 Deployment Status and Challenges AVs are currently in the development and pilot testing stage. They are being tested in controlled and monitored situations, often with a human present to intervene when the AV is not acting correctly. Several low speed (under 25 mph) shuttle vans are currently being pilot-tested on low speed public streets and in parking lots in the U.S. without human monitors onboard. Listed below are the primary challenges to greater deployment of AVs: ï Developing a robust driving algorithm, ï Reducing the price of the vehicle, ï Developing state and federal safety standards for AVs, and ï Obtaining consumer acceptance The driving algorithm must work in combination with the in-vehicle detectors and navigation information provided over the internet to navigate safely through all eventualities. The extra computer and detection equipment in the vehicle increases its purchase price, maintenance costs, and weight (reducing fuel efficiency). While many consumers might enjoy giving up the driving task, whether or not consumers would be willing to pay extra for this convenience has yet to be tested. Price: When the technological problems are solved, the next great challenge to the deployment of AVs will be getting the costs down so that AVs are competitively priced to human-driven vehicles. Safety Standards: The existing Federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) established by NHTSA were not developed with AVs in mind. For example, the light vehicle brake standard (FMVSS No. 135) requires a specific brake pedal application for the stopping distance test, which
Page: 116 may not be possible in an AV without a brake pedal. Until the FMVSS are updated to accommodate AV testing, each pilot deployment of an automated/autonomous shuttle requires individual vehicle exemptions from NHTSA. This is a roadblock to the greater deployment of AVs, which is why NHTSA is actively evaluating their safety standards to identify potential changes needed to accommodate AVs. For AVs in commercial service, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) will need to develop roadside inspection test procedures to be able to test that necessary safety systems are functioning in the AVs in commercial service. States may need to adopt vehicle safety equipment inspection requirements to ensure the safe operation of AVs in service. For states that do not currently require annual vehicle inspections, such as Florida, this type of regulatory change may take time to develop. Consumer Acceptance: The slow turnover of the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet will be the last obstacle. Unless and until methods are found to retrofit AV capabilities onto existing vehicles (and regulations established to require retrofitting), the penetration of AVs into the U.S. vehicle fleet will have to rely on new vehicles sales. The average age of passenger cars in the U.S. passenger fleet is about 11.6 years. Seven percent of the passenger car fleet in 2016 consisted of new cars. It will take about 15 years for a complete turnover of the U.S. passenger car fleet with new cars (Schwartz, 2018). So when AVs become 100 percent of new car sales, it will be another 15 years after that before AVs would come close to being 100 percent of the vehicle fleet. It is estimated that it will take about 30 years for AVs to reach 50 percent of the U.S. passenger car fleet (see Exhibit 6). The higher market penetration estimates in the exhibit assume that manufacturers are able to achieve significant decreases in manufacturing costs for AVs. Probably the earliest adopters of self-driving vehicles will be enterprises that must pay their drivers (such as public transit properties, ride-hailing companies, and freight carriers). The projected savings on driver wages can be substantial for a fleet operator, which has triggered a great deal of interest for vehicle manufacturers that sell vehicles to fleet operators. Litman has projected that AVs may constitute around 50 percent of new car sales and constitute anywhere from 20 to 40 percent of the vehicle fleet on the road in the U.S. in the 2040s (Litman, 2018). This researcher also notes that some of the ultimate benefits of AVs will not be available until human drivers are prohibited from using the road. In the U.S., it could be at least the 2060s before AVs constitute close to 100 percent of new car sales, and the 2070s or 2080s before AVs reach over 90 percent of the vehicle fleet on the road. Government regulations, tax incentives, and subsidies can accelerate the penetration of AVs into the marketplace.
Page: 117 Exhibit 6: U.S. Passenger Car Market Penetration Forecasts for AVs Adapted from Todd Litman, Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions, Implications for Transport Planning, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, November 26, 2018 UC Berkeley research for Caltrans on the future of automated/autonomous vehicles made the following predictions: (Gordon, Kaplan, El Zarwi, Walker, & Zilberman, 2018) ï Private ownership of AVs will prevail after a transition period, as was the case in other technologies like computers, tractors, and cars. ï With technological progress, the cost of privately owning AVs will decline and they will be customized to meet individual tastes. ï There will be an increase in vehicle miles traveled per capita. ï There may be more vehicles on the road. ï There may be an expansion of the transportation user base to include those currently facing limited mobility. ï These trends may lead to increased GHG emissions and expansion of the transportation sector. ï The technology will evolve and might result in complementary innovations that could address delivery to the front door step of the business or home (the âlast 10 feetâ problem). 188.8.131.52 Specific Examples Several original equipment manufacturers are making automated/autonomous shuttles today. These vehicles function at SAE Level 4 â High Automation. Minnesota DOT is pilot-testing an EasyMile automated/autonomous shuttle in extreme winter conditions (Most deployments to date have operated in mild weather environments.) Nevada DOT is currently running an AV shuttle in
Page: 118 Las Vegas on a fixed route, which is giving city visitors the chance to experience the new technology. The Waymo self-driving car (a.k.a. the âGoogle carâ) was the first self-driving car to be developed and tested (Waymo, 2018). Google started testing the self-driving car in 2009. They conducted the âworldâs first fully self-driving ride on public roadsâ in 2015. In 2018, Waymo announced they will continue to advance the technology with their plans to partner with Jaguar to develop the âworldâs first premium electric self-driving vehicle.â The race to fully self-driving cars is being led by Waymo and GM today. There are currently no examples of SAE Level 5 â Full Automation technology available for consumer purchase. Even the Waymo self-driving car is still being tested and is constantly monitored by backup safety operators who step in to help the car learn how to respond in challenging situations. In 2016, Otto (Uberâs self-driving vehicle company) tested the first commercial truck delivery, where they ran a Volvo truck tractor towing a payload of Budweiser beer on a 120-mile âbeer runâ on Interstate 25 (Isaac, 2016). For part of the trip, the truck driver was seated in the rear of the cab while the truck drove down the interstate. The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has produced an inventory of international and domestic low-speed AV shuttle deployments (Cregger, et al., 2018). They identified 20 domestic pilot projects involving a similar number of vehicles. They identified the following early obstacles to deployment of AV shuttles: ï Vehicle capabilities ï Operating environment ï Product availability ï Planning and implementation ï Financial considerations ï Labor considerations ï Data and evaluation ï Public acceptance ï Federal, state and local regulations 184.108.40.206 Potential Impacts on Travel Rented or leased AVs will reduce the cost of ride hailing, taxi, limousine, and chauffer services by eliminating the labor costs of the hired driver. This will serve to increase the number of trips taken by these modes of travel at the expense of other modes (such as drive alone, carpool, and transit).
Page: 119 Owned AVs for exclusive personal use will be more expensive than driving oneâs own vehicle. Some higher income people will no doubt be willing to pay for this luxury. However, as long as humans are allowed to drive, this should have no effect on overall travel demand. (The addition of more expensive options for mode choice does not typically increase total demand). No operating cost data for AVs is currently available. It is likely that other operating costs of AVs will be equal to or higher than those for non-AV vehicles. Maintenance costs of the sophisticated equipment will be higher than for human-driven vehicles. Self-driving vehicles were originally anticipated to eliminate the need for liability insurance. However, recent incidents have caused the insurance industry to realize that liability insurance will still be needed, although the nature of the insurance product may change (Mathis, 2018). Self-driving cars (by eliminating the hired driver) offer a lower cost mobility solution to almost anyone, including the blind, older travelers who no longer drive, handicapped people, and young children not old enough to drive. Mode split could shift away from large transit vehicles toward smaller AVs, especially for people who have been dependent on transit because they are not allowed to drive. If AVs result in lower costs per trip due to reduced labor costs, then travel demand might increase as people are willing to make more trips at the lower costs. If AV developers can get their production and operating costs down to significantly below that of conventional human-driven taxi services (roughly $3 per mile), then there might be substantial increases in the use of AVs as essentially chauffeured vehicles by the public. A recent UC Davis study found that providing completely free chauffer service (rather than charging passengers $3 per mile) would increase family vehicle trips by over 80 percent; the biggest users were those in the family without driversâ licensesâthe teenagers (Harb, Xiao, Circella, Mokhtarian, & Walker, 2018). Increased chauffeured travel via AVs will probably draw time-sensitive passengers from public transit and other competing modes. Conversely, the assurance of an inexpensive ride at the end of each trip might encourage increased transit use. A UC Davis evaluation of the likely impacts of AVs concluded the following (Rodier, 2018): ï AVs will probably improve safety. ï AVs will probably increase roadway capacity. ï AVs will reduce the time cost of travel by enabling drivers to do other activities while in the vehicle. ï AVs may reduce vehicle operating costs by lowering insurance costs and eliminating the need for hired drivers. ï AVs may reduce transit use. ï AVs will generate empty vehicle relocation traffic.
Page: 120 ï AVs will reduce parking needs. ï AVs will enable more people to engage in car travel. ï AVs will increase vehicle-miles traveled. UC Davis performed demand modeling studies of the San Francisco Bay Area. These studies tested different future scenarios, assuming that AVs might increase roadway capacity by 100 percent, reduce the perceived value of time spent in the vehicle by 25 percent, reduce vehicle operating costs by 4 cents, might attract new drivers, or all of the above. The different scenarios predicted the AVs might increase vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by 2 to 11 percent, increase traffic by 0 to 8 percent, and cause vehicle delay to increase by as much as 7 percent or decrease by as much as 78 percent (Caroline, Jaller, & Pourrahmani, 2018). A University of Iowa report came to ambivalent conclusions about the planning impacts of AVs, which might increase or decrease capacity and increase or decrease pavement stress. The report did come to a firm conclusion that AVs will increase VMT and result in unexpected changes in traffic patterns as empty vehicles make trips to their next pick up point (McGehee, Brewer, Schwarz, & Walker-Smith, Review of Automated Vehicle Technology: Policy and Implementation Implications, 2016). 220.127.116.11 Land Use and Streetscape Implications If AV operators are able to get their hired vehicle costs significantly below $3 per mile (the average cost of ride hailing and taxi service in many downtown areas), then the availability of low-cost chauffeured service would significantly affect the need for and the location of parking facilities in an urban area. However, cost is not the only consideration. The low-cost AVs must also be able to quickly appear anywhere in the urban area on demand. If travelers also share an AV with others, then they need not park their vehicle at all. Travelers can be dropped off and picked up curbside. The AV can be serving others while travelers conduct their business. A different AV can then be summoned to pick up a traveler when theyâre ready. With low cost and highly responsive AV service available, then travelers using AVs need not park the vehicle within short walking distance of their destination. Parking lots and garages can be shifted to more remote locations and the space could be redeveloped into other commercial and residential uses. The increased use of curbs for pick-ups and drop-offs will place a premium on incorporating safe and convenient pick-up and drop-off areas in development site plans and streetscape. Larson and Zhao employed a land use model to forecast the likely land use effects of automated vehicles (Larson & Zhao, 2017). They concluded the following: ï AVs would decrease marginal commute costs, thereby decreasing household density and expanding the physical footprint of the city, unless AVs are paired with reallocation of
Page: 121 downtown parking to commercial and residential uses, in which case the impacts of AV would be reversed. Household densities would increase. ï When AVs are combined with other technologies like car sharing and RVs, then AVs would unequivocally result in urban decentralization (even with reallocation of downtown parking to other uses). ï In no scenario did they find that AVs reduced energy consumption or carbon emissions. ï The cumulative effect of AVs, EVs, and car-sharing technologies are dramatic: Land prices near the city center drop. Density decreases dramatically, city area expands, energy consumption rises, and welfare increases substantially. Zhang used a traffic simulation model and residential/commercial location choice models to look at the land use impacts of shared automated/autonomous vehicles. He concluded that shared AVs could reduce downtown parking demands by 90 percent and increase the attractiveness of downtowns for denser residential and commercial developments (Zhang, 2017). 18.104.22.168 Highway Infrastructure Implications No design modifications are anticipated to be needed for AVs. Adherence to design standards for signing and striping the road may be more critical for AVs, which currently are less able to adapt to unique situations than human drivers. AVs when combined with CV capabilities (CAVs) would enable closer car following distances on freeways; this would increase the capacity of existing freeways when CAVs achieve a minimum market penetration. AVs with CV V2X capabilities have the possibility of communicating with signals to give signals more information on arriving vehicles. FHWAâs and University of Arizonaâs MMITSS signal control software is one example of the possibilities of improving signal timing through better communication with the vehicles. Conversely, the signals might let the vehicles know of upcoming signal indication changes. At least one application has been developed to do just that. Note that there are no regulations requiring close car following distances, so the greater capacities would only occur if manufacturers and/or vehicle operators voluntarily selected closer car following distances for their CV-equipped AVs. In fact, some states have minimum following distance requirements, such as Florida, which currently requires a minimum 300-ft following distance for commercial trucks. An agency might consider dedicating lanes exclusively for CV and AV use as an incentive for the purchase or leasing of those technologies (Booz Allen Hamilton, 2018). While theoretically very large increases in capacity have been postulated for an all CAV future, there are several practical constraints that make achieving theoretical capacities impractical. The
Page: 122 extent to which CAVs follow each other more closely than human-driven vehicles will depend on the following: ï Manufacturer settings, which in turn will depend on the manufacturersâ insurance considerations ï Fuel economy considerations when drafting another vehicle ï The comfort level of the passengers in each vehicle when following other vehicles closely ï The need to leave gaps between vehicles so that others can enter the freeway, merge onto the street, or change lanes In addition, allowances in car following distances will have to be made for those vehicles still driven by humans in the future. The World Economic Forum estimates that CAVs might increase street capacities by 8 percent at the 50 percent market penetration and 25 percent at 100 percent penetration (World Economic Forum, 2018) (see Exhibit 7). Note that even at 50 percent market penetration of the passenger car fleet, the probability of a pair of CAVs closely following each other is just 25 percent. Thus, the capacity effects are low until higher market penetration levels are reached. The Florida DOT posits a range of possible capacity increases (between 15 and 75 percent increase), depending on various possible future scenarios for implementing CAVs (FDOT Office of Policy Planning, 2018). Exhibit 7: Impact of CAV Market Penetration on Highway Capacity Adapted from âReshaping Urban Mobility with Autonomous Vehicles Lessons from the City of Boston,â World Economic Forum, June 2018.
Page: 123 22.214.171.124 Potential Implications for Logistics CAV trucks have the potential to reduce truck operating costs by 50 percent. Most of that savings would come from eliminated driver wages and benefits (Rodrigues, 2018). Some of that savings will come from fuel savings associated with truck platooning, where one truck operating as an AV closely drafts a lead truck. Such cost savings would attract longer haul freight from alternative modes like rail. 126.96.36.199 Policy and Planning Challenges The policy and planning challenges related to AV technology are varied. At the federal and state levels there are safety issues. At the local level, the shift in demand from off-street parking to curbside drop will require rethinking local on-site parking requirements as well as site plan designs for pick-ups and drop-offs. Over the long term, conversion of underused parking lots and garages to other uses will be a consideration. National Policies: The USDOT has developed a policy dealing with future automation (US Department of Transportation, 2018). It lays out its key automation principles: ï Safety is their priority. ï They will be technology neutral. ï They will modernize regulations. ï They will encourage consistent regulatory and operational environment. ï They will prepare for automation. ï They will protect American freedoms. In 2019, the USDOT is awarding $60 million in ADS Demonstration Grants to test the safe integration of ADSs into the nation's on-road transportation system (Federal Highway Administration, 2018). In letters to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the FCC, and the USDOTâs Office of the Secretary, the AASHTO noted (AASHTO, 2018): ï The need for continuing government oversight of pilot projects ï The need to update state and local laws ï The need to preserve the 5.9 GHz (DSRC) band for connected vehicle use ï The challenge of funding the needed infrastructure improvements to provide connectivity The Institute of Transportation Engineers has published a statement on connected and automated/autonomous vehicles (Institute of Transportation Engineers, 2018). The statement supports the development of completely self-driving vehicles (SAE Levels 4/5) with limited human monitoring, rather than lower levels of automation that require continuous driver attention to the
Page: 124 road. It urges preservation of the 5.9 GHz DSRC band for communicating with vehicles. It identifies the following challenges for AV deployment: ï Lack of nationwide consistency with markings and signage ï The need for a national work zone traffic information database ï Curb space management ï Cybersecurity concerns The policy identifies various steps that the USDOT and public agencies can take to support AVs. Research: The National Academies-TRB Forum on Preparing for Automated Vehicles and Shared Mobility was launched in early 2018 to identify research needs. They have issued a circular identifying a catalogue of research needs regarding safety; transportation system impacts; social, environmental, energy, and economic impacts; and data needs (Kortum & Norman, 2018). Equity: The potentially lower costs of ride hailing AVs would make the use of taxi and limousine service more accessible to lower income riders. Lower operating costs of AVs would lower shipping costs, thus making a wider range of goods available to a broader section of the public. Lack of low skill jobs may counteract these effects. Employment: AVs will significantly reduce large sectors of employment that do not require a college degree: Uber/Lyft driver, taxi driver, limousine driver, chauffeur, truck driver, and bus driver. AVs will change the labor skills needed to maintain vehicles, with a shift away from mechanical systems toward electric motors, electronics, and software. The AASHTO has filed a letter with the USDOT regarding its planned study of how AV technologies might impact the U.S. workforce (AASHTO, 2018). The letter notes the challenges to state DOT workforce recruiting and retention. They are concerned about the potential obsolescence of state maintenance crews. State Legislation: In 2017 and 2018 numerous states introduced legislation dealing with AVs. Others have enacted AV legislation, or have issued executive orders related to AVs (National Conference of State Legislatures, 2018). Many states have active shared ride (low speed van shuttle) AV pilot projects. Roughly half of the shared ride pilots are currently (as of 2018) carrying passengers. State vehicle codes, licensing requirements, and liability laws need to be reviewed and updated to clarify manufacturer, software writer, automobile dealer, rental agency, and driver duties, roles, and responsibilities. NCHRP Project 20-102, âImplications of Connected and Automated Driving Systems,â provides a multi-volume set of reports to help states, especially transportation and motor vehicle agencies and their associate legal departments, identify the critical laws and regulations that might need to be changed or modified as CV and AV system-equipped vehicles are deployed (Trimble, Gallun, & Loftus-Otway, 2018).
Page: 125 AV software compliance with the unique aspects of state and local vehicle codes need to be considered. State and Local Agency Planning Challenges: The challenge for local planners and designers will be how to plan and design for an evolving vehicle fleet mix. AVs may eventually yield significant infrastructure savings in the future, but given 15 years for a complete vehicle fleet turnover (Schwartz, 2018) and the fact that manufacturers are still turning out many, many more human- driven vehicles than AVs, it is likely that it will be a few decades before AVs constitute the majority of the vehicle fleet. In the meantime, engineers must design highways to safely accommodate the lowest common denominatorâthe human-driven vehicle. Planners may be able to see that 30 years in the future less infrastructure may be needed, but they must account for the interim needs of the public and find an appropriate balance between the short-term and long-term good of society. Land Use: Zoning regulations for off-street parking and curbside passenger pickup/drop-off zones will need to be reconsidered in light of gradual penetration of AVs into the vehicle fleet. Similarly, zoning regulations for loading docks, loading zones, and UAV landing zones need to be reconsidered in light of AVs. Automated/autonomous and secure deposit boxes for AV package deliveries need to be considered. Concerned Decision Makers: Federal â The NHTSA is developing policy on ADSs safety performance. State â State governments are responsible for developing policy on licensing, registration, enforcement, liability, and insurance requirements for automated/autonomous driving systems. NHTSA provides detailed recommendations on the responsibilities of state governments and state highway safety officials in their policy guidance Automated Driving Systems 2.0: A Vision for Safety (2017) (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2019) (see Exhibit 8). As AVs become more prevalent, county and city agencies will be concerned with establishing local zoning, parking, and taxation regulations for AVs. MPOs will be concerned with assisting cities and counties in coordinating local regulations and securing federal funding for their activities. Public transit operators and private fleet owners/operators will be interested in taking advantage of the economic benefits of AVs. Public perceptions and reception of AVs can be a challenge, with some residents actively interfering with or damaging AVs on the road (Romero, 2018).
Page: 126 Exhibit 8: Division of Vehicle Safety Responsibilities between State and Federal National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Responsibilities State Responsibilities Setting Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSSs) for new motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment (with which manufacturers must certify compliance before they sell the vehicles). Licensing human drivers and registering motor vehicles in their jurisdictions. Enforcing Compliance with FMVSSs. Enacting and enforcing traffic laws and regulations. Investigating and managing the recall and remedy of non-compliances and safety- related motor vehicle defects nationwide. Conducting safety inspections, where States choose to do so. Communicating with and educating the public about motor vehicle safety issues. Regulating motor vehicle insurance and liability. Source: NHTSA, Automated Driving Systems 2.0: A Vision for Safety.2017. Guidance for Cities: The National League of Cities has published a municipal action guide for addressing AV pilot tests (Perkins, Dupuis, & Rainwater, 2018). It summarizes the state of AV pilot programs, gives guidance on developing an AV pilot program, gives some city examples, and suggests strategies for city leadership. Their recommendations include the following: ï Determine the cityâs goals for pursuing an AV pilot project. ï Build a consortium of federal, state, local, and private partners. ï Engage the private sector as financial partners. ï Look to join or create a regional alliance with other public agencies. ï Scale the pilot appropriately to the resources available. ï Work with the state ï Pursue a phased plan. 188.8.131.52 Accelerating AV Deployment Infrastructure adaptations to accelerate AV deployment include RSUs to communicate road and weather information to the AV, and better signing and striping to assist in wayfinding. Standardized, well-maintained pavement markings have been identified by the FHWA as a key contribution of the highway infrastructure to safe AV deployment (Carlson, 2019). A University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin) research report on the infrastructure needs of AVs (Kockelman, Boyles, Stone, Fagnant, & Pateet, 2017) identified various vehicle cost, technology, and regulatory challenges for AVs, and noted the advantages to AVs if the road infrastructure
Page: 127 could provide more information to AVs in a nationally uniform manner (see Exhibit 9). A later study reported on the results of various pilot tests of technology, opinion surveys, and modeling exercises related to maximizing the benefits of AVs (Kockelman, Boyles, Sturgeon, & Claudel, 2018). As stated in the UT Austin report, the general infrastructure requirement of AVs is for âclear lane markings and traffic signs,â much the same as current Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices requirements for signing and striping roads for human drivers. The big challenge for AVs is navigating work zones and crash sites, where temporary signing, cones, and enforcement officer controls might be less clear than permanent signs and might contradict the permanent signing and marking for the site. Exhibit 9: UT Austin Assessment of AV Needs for Supportive Infrastructure AV Function Infrastructure Need Infrastructure Cost Impacts 1 Forward Collision Warning None None 2 Blind Spot Monitoring None None 3 Lane Departure Warning Lane marks Low 4 Traffic Sign Recognition Traffic sign Moderate 5 Left Turn Assist Lane marks Low Low 6 Adaptive Headlight None None 7 Adaptive Cruise Control None, possible dedicated lane Depends 8 Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control None None 9 Automatic Emergency Braking None None 10 Lane Keeping Lane marks Low 11 Electric Stability Control None None 12 Parental Control None None 13 Traffic Jam Assist Lane marks Low 14 High Speed Automation Lane marks, traffic sign Moderate 15 Automated Assistance in Roadwork and Congestion Lane marks, beacons, guide walls High 16 On-Highway Platooning Lane marks, traffic sign Moderate 17 Automated Operation for Military None Unknown 18 Driverless Car Lane marks, traffic sign, lighting High 19 Emergency Stopping Assistance None None 20 Auto-Valet Parking Parking facilities High Adapted from Table 2.4, Kockelman et al., An Assessment of Autonomous Vehicles: Traffic Impacts and Infrastructure Needs, 2016. A University of Iowa report recommends that the State of Iowa take the following steps to prepare its physical, information, and regulatory infrastructure for automated/autonomous vehicle technologies : (McGehee, Brewer, Schwarz, & Walker-Smith, Review of Automated Vehicle Technology: Policy and Implementation Implications, 2016) ï Prioritize the adequate maintenance of roadways (including pavement conditions and lane markings) to improve the real-life performance of early advanced driver assistance systems.
Page: 128 ï Ensure that policies on the design of transportation infrastructure (including traffic control devices) are clear, consistent across jurisdictions, and actually followed in practice to reduce the frequency with which automated/autonomous systems must confront unusual roadway conditions. ï Verify that construction crews and emergency responders follow relevant policies when working on or near active roadways to reduce unanticipated conflicts between automated/autonomous vehicles and these personnel. ï Standardize their management of road- and traffic-relevant data to make these data more accessible to digital mapmakers and other potential users. ï Update existing vehicle registration databases with information about the automation capabilities of every vehicle so that police can readily distinguish between automated/autonomous and conventional vehicles. ï Coordinate with national authorities on V2V and V2I communications so that this infrastructure is available to those developers who wish to use it. ï Encourage automation by preparing government agencies, infrastructure, leveraging procurement, and advocating for safety mandates. ï Encourage the deployment of robust wireless communications networks so that developers of automated systems can more reliably share data and updates with these systems after they have been deployed. ï Make existing congestion management tools (including managed lanes) available for automation-related applications to encourage these applications. ï Emphasize neighborhood designs that are consistent with low vehicle speeds to provide roadway environments conducive to early driverless systems. Missouri DOT (McGehee, Brewer, Schwarz, & Walker-Smith, A Citizen's Guide to Missouri's Transportation Future, 2018) and Delaware DOT (Barnes, Turkel, Moreland, & Pragg, 2017) emphasize the uncertainty in planning infrastructure improvements for AVs, citing uncertainty in communication standards, future AV sales, and AV functionalities among other issues. 184.108.40.206 Augmenting AV Benefits Infrastructure adaptations that might augment the benefits of AVs include narrower lanes, higher speed limits, remotely located AV parking garages, smaller parking garages with fewer spaces, and smaller parking spaces. These adaptations to the infrastructure, plus the closer car-following distances enabled by connected AVs, might enable agencies to get by with lower infrastructure investments in the future. In addition, smarter infrastructure (sensors, and controls) combined with advanced traffic, parking, and demand management strategies can take maximum advantage of the capabilities of CAVs to reap substantial transportation system benefits. The magnitude of these benefits is speculative at this time because they will be greatest with a 100 percent exclusive AV vehicle fleet in the U.S. These benefits are significantly reduced with a mixed human and AV vehicle fleet.
Page: 129 Timing: It can be argued that these benefits should be anticipated in investments now. Roads, traffic management systems, parking, and charging stations should be modified in some way to better accommodate the upcoming AV fleets. Following this argument to its conclusion, one could conclude that all existing infrastructure should be modified for AV/CVsâ functions to improve traffic operational safety and efficiency, which can be very expensive (Godsmark, Kirk, Gill, & Flemming, 2015). It is possible that less highway capacity and parking capacity will be needed in the future due to the theoretically greater efficiencies of AVs. However, as discussed earlier, it may be the 2040s before AVs constitute 50 percent of new car sales, and beyond that before AVs represent 50 percent of the passenger vehicle fleet on the road in the U.S. So, short of new government regulations requiring AV retrofits of existing vehicles or prohibitions on human drivers, planners must plan for a mixed human and AV fleet for the foreseeable future. The transportation infrastructure must accommodate both human drivers and AVs for the next 50 years, unless government policies were to change in the interim to restrict or prohibit human drivers on selected or all facilities. 220.127.116.11 Adaptation of Infrastructure for AV Trucks Infrastructure technologies can profoundly affect the land use dynamics. A smart infrastructure could enhance automated/autonomous truck platooning though V2I communication via RSUs that communicate between the truck and the traffic management center (Federal Highway Administration, 2017)., Truck platooning of freeways (where connected automated/autonomous trucks follow each other at 1 second headways) will work best if the connected AV (CAV) trucks can operate in their own exclusive lane without mixing with human-driven vehicles. Of course, limited truck platooning can work right now with no modification to the infrastructure. The length and frequency of platoons would have to be limited to preserve the ability of non-platooning vehicles to enter and exit the facility. With current vehicle codes for slower moving vehicles, right-hand lane operation of CAV-trucks on a freeway would be significantly limited by the need to allow passenger cars and other vehicles to enter and exit the freeway at the on and off-ramps. CAV trucks would have to break up the platoon to allow vehicles to cross their lane. 18.104.22.168 Special Considerations for Rural Areas There are many operating conditions unique to rural areas that have probably yet to be the focus of AV driving algorithm and detector development: ï High-speed, two-lane rural highways with passing and no-passing zones ï Low-speed narrow winding roads lacking centerline or edge striping ï Missing guide signs and control signs
Page: 130 ï Washouts, flooding, loose rock, and landslides ï Slow and extra wide agricultural vehicles on the road ï Bicyclists and pedestrians in the travel lane ï Cattle guards, gates ï Large and small animals in the roadway Until these rural driving scenarios can be reliably addressed by the AV driving algorithms and proximity sensors, rural areas will be outside the operational design domain of AVs. 2.4 UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES & DROIDS UAVs (also called drones) and ground-based droids are designed to deliver lightweight, small-sized freight over short distances, the âlast-mileâ or the last 50 feet. They may be gasoline-powered for longer distances and heavier loads, or they may be battery-powered. They are often remote-controlled by a pilot, but can also be automated and self-piloted. 2.4.1 Deployment Status and Challenges Ground-based droids currently operate inside many large U.S. manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution facilities on private property. Aerial drones (UAVs) are currently being pilot tested for delivering lightweight, low-volume packages over short distances. Outside the U.S., the pilot tests have covered longer distances. Outside of the U.S., one company is currently looking into developing passenger-carrying versions of UAVs. Commercially available aerial drones can fly up to 2,000 feet altitude, have a range of around 1 mile, and can carry loads weighing between 1 pound and 15 pounds. The higher capacity drones have eight rotors and tend to be gasoline-powered. Military versions have greater operating altitudes, ranges, and capacities (Drone Enthusiast, 2019). UAVs range in price from $20 for low-capacity, short flying time, low feature UAVs to $60,000 for Lidar-equipped versions. UAVs are regulated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). For drones weighing less than 55 pounds, the FAA has set the following rules (Dorr, 2018): ï The UAV must be kept in sight of the operator. ï Night flying is not allowed. The UAV should not be flown over people. ï The UAV should be limited to 400 feet above the ground or any structure. ï The maximum speed should be limited to 100 mph. ï There are additional air space restrictions in the vicinity of airports, military bases, and other sensitive installations.
Page: 131 Additional rules and licensing requirements apply for larger UAVs and for operation outside of the above limits. Drones may be equipped with camera equipment, thus enabling their use in visual inspection, monitoring, and aerial photography for a variety of reasons, such as fire-fighting, infrastructure inspection, and real estate photography (National League of Cities, 2016). Aerial drones are a rapidly developing and emerging technology. Different models are better suited to various contexts â for example, urban areas will likely require vertical take-off and landing drones, small âdrone ports,â and short flight distances; whereas, rural applications could dedicate more space to takeoff and landing (larger âdrone portsâ) and may require medium to longer distances. The technical challenges related to drone use are evolving as the technology evolves. Current challenges include the following: ï Air traffic management safety concerns: NASA and FAA are currently working to develop an Unmanned Aerial System Traffic Management System that would manage fully automated drone operation, complementing the FAAâs existing systems (International Transportation Forum, 2018). ï Lack of Infrastructure: Drone operations require the appropriate supporting infrastructure, including âdrone portsâ from which drones take off and land. These drone ports will vary based on the land use context, the types of drones using them, and the purposes they serve. ï Restrictions on operations: Locational/operational regulations limit drone operations within 5 miles of an airport without advance notice. 2.4.2 Specific Examples UAVs are commercially available from a variety of manufacturers. 2.4.3 Potential Impacts on Travel Aerial deliveries may reduce urban street congestion by reducing the number of trucks, the need for curbside truck loading zones, and the likelihood of double parking for deliveries when a loading zone is not available. When combined with internet applications that facilitate e- commerce, short-distance package delivery systems can reduce some personal travel, replacing it with freight delivery
Page: 132 2.4.4 Land Use and Streetscape Implications UAVs may affect the location choices for freight distribution centers. The designs of buildings may be altered to provide drone ports and UAV accessible smart lockers for temporarily storing delivered goods on site until the consignee can pick them up. 2.4.5 Highway Infrastructure Implications If UAVs become sufficiently pervasive, they might require the designation of certain height ranges over highways for exclusive UAV use. Poles and bridge structures would not be allowed to penetrate the assigned UAV airspace over the highway. 2.4.6 Potential Implications for Logistics UAVs are likely to affect the choice of mode (ground or air) for the last mile delivery of small-sized, low weight goods. The locations of distribution centers may be affected. 2.4.7 Policy and Planning Challenges Privacy is one of the larger concerns related to drones, and while FAA currently states that drones cannot fly over people, it leaves privacy regulations to state and local regulation (National League of Cities, 2016). Ensuring safety and security is another key concern, as drones may be targets of hacking and cyberattacks. Regulations and policy frameworks vary significantly across the globe, which has led to uneven adoption of the technology for various uses. The propeller noise associated with current UAVs might be a policy and planning challenge for residential areas and quiet zones around hospitals and schools 2.4.8 Special Considerations for Rural Areas The greater distances typical of rural settings may be a challenge to UAV ranges. A tender/recharging vehicle may be required to extend their range. UAVs crossing private property and affecting privacy may be a rural policy and enforcement challenge.
Page: 133 2.5 HIGHWAY SYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES Innovative intelligent highway system infrastructure technologies consist of technologies located on the road or street, at transit station/stops, and at the TMC that take advantage of greater real-time travel activity data that are available from traveler devices and smarter devices in the field. These data then enable improved management methods to increase the efficiency and productivity of the transportation infrastructure. The emerging highway system technologies can be divided between field sensors, control devices, and informational devices. Field Sensors: Conventional field detection technologies include loop detectors and video cameras/detectors. They count all vehicles that pass through their detection field, classify them (truck, car, etc.), and estimate spot speeds. Field sensors can track the arrival and departure of transit vehicles. Installation and maintenance of detectors in the field is expensive for local and state agencies. Emerging detection technologies track wireless devices that people carry on their person or in their vehicle as they move through the system. They include cell phone location tracking (location-based services) and Bluetooth device tracking sensors. Bluetooth or cell phone detection devices can be used for measuring travel times and estimating origin-destination patterns. Since not all vehicles or people carry these devices, they cannot be used directly to obtain counts traffic volumes or people movements. They provide a sample of all movements. These devices and how they operate are described in more detail below: ï Cell phone location-based services data are collected by various cell phone apps. Cell phone location-based services are cell phone apps that users install on their phones to tell them about nearby businesses. These applications report back to the software developer the location of the device in real-time. The positions of cell phone devices (via cell tower triangulation or in-device GPS) and in-vehicle GPS tracking devices (often for fleet management purposes) may be tracked and the data aggregated to provide real-time information on facility conditions (speeds, incidents, traffic volumes). Various commercial vendors have begun to aggregate and process the location-based services data into link speeds and origin-destination patterns, and to license the data to public agencies and others. Because of the processing steps involved before the data can be made available to third parties, the data are generally not available to third parties on a real-time basis. ï Bluetooth traffic detectors can be installed by public agencies in the field to monitor travel times. Commercial vendors offer Bluetooth traffic detectors and processing software. These data are typically used to obtain historical travel patterns, but it can be used by the collecting agencies to monitor traffic operations on a near real-time basis. Control Devices: Conventional devices for controlling vehicular traffic include traffic signals, stop signs, and various signs to control turns, usage (weight limits), and speeds. Emerging technologies
Page: 134 replace the traditional static controls with dynamic, traffic, and weather responsive controls using advanced control logic and dynamic message signs. Traffic adaptive signal controllers are one example. In the U.S., there are currently about 300,000 signalized intersections. Each year about 2,500 additional intersections are signalized (United States Access Board, 2019). In the last 20 years, agencies have installed smarter control devices that react to traffic, such as traffic-actuated traffic signals. Several larger cities in the U.S. have installed traffic-responsive and traffic-adaptive coordinated signal systems. FHWA and several state DOTs are currently experimenting with more intelligent control devices that take advantage of V2I communications capabilities. One example is the University of Arizonaâs Multi Modal Intelligent Traffic Signal System (MMITSS) implementation of traffic adaptive control signals with connected vehicle capabilities (Head, 2016). Around the U.S., emerging control technologies have been applied in a variety of pilot studies. Specific examples can be found in the FHWA Active Traffic Management website (Federal Highway Administration, 2019). ï Several states have deployed Weather-Responsive Speed Limits, including Alabama, Arizona, Maine, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wyoming. The implemented strategy consists of dynamic speed limit algorithm coupled with Transportation Management Center control, field sensors, and dynamic message signs (DMS). In addition, the advanced sensing technology proactively facilitates the infrastructure maintenance due to an adverse weather condition, such as an automatic request for de-icing at a specific location. ï Minnesota DOT deployed the Minneapolis Smart Lanes project on I-35W and I-94 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The ATM strategies are dynamic lane use control, dynamic speed limit, queue warning, and adaptive ramp metering (Turnbull, Balke, Burris, & Songchitruksa, 2013)., The goal is using advisory speed limits to prevent crashes and increase safety based on the real-time information dissemination. ï Delaware DOT (DelDOT) has installed 300 miles of fiber optic cable to support intelligent transportation infrastructure and had another 300 miles planned as of 2017 (Barnes, Turkel, Moreland, & Pragg, 2017). Informational devices: Static signs give drivers locational and directional information. Emerging technologies replace static informational signs with dynamic, remote-controlled signs that can convey a wealth of information to drivers. Dynamic message signs can provide travelers with up-to-date information about roadway traffic, work zones, weather, detours, estimated travel time, parking availability, and so on. These devices support intelligent transportation systems (ITS) by providing drivers and passengers with real-time information. Examples of emerging traffic information technologies include DMS posted on the side of the road or on overhead gantries. DMS signs may also be called variable message signs or changeable message signs, depending on local preferences.
Page: 135 DMS signs may be employed in many ways: ï DMS signs on freeways and arterials might warn of incidents and congestion ahead and suggest alternate routes. They might give expected travel times to selected waypoints. ï DMS signs at transit stops may alert passengers to when the next bus or train is expected. ï Similar messages may be transmitted over the web directly to the driverâs cell phone or vehicle dashboard (if it is a connected vehicle). Data Sharing: SharedStreets is a non-profit data exchange for roadways. The various public and private partners of SharedStreets contribute data on curb space demand and driving speeds (Hyatt, 2018). SharedStreets provides a standardized format and tools for referencing and accessing the data. Current partners include Ford, the National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO), Uber, and Lyft. More information can be found at this website: https://sharedstreets.io/. Smart Highway Infrastructure: Smart highway infrastructure when combined with advanced system management practices (applications) can multiply the transportation benefits of smart vehicles alone. The following FHWA reports provide more technical information on smart highway infrastructure technologies and planning/programming guidance. ï Blake Christie, Dawn Hardesty, Greg Hatcher, Michael Mercer, Integrated Corridor Management: Implementation Guide and Lessons Learned Final Report Version 2.0), FHWA-JPO-16-280, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., September 2016. ï Jocelyn Bauer, Deena Platman, Michael Grant, Michael Smith, Renee Hurtado, Lindsay Martin, Peng Su, Jiaqi Ma, Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations within Corridors â A Desk Reference, FHWA-HOP-16-037, FHWA, Washington, D.C., September 2016. ï Michael Grant, Pat Noyes, Lindsay Oluyede, Jocelyn Bauer, Matthew Edelman, Developing and Sustaining a Transportation Systems Management & Operations Mission for Your Organization A Primer for Program Planning, FHWA-HOP-17-017, FHWA, Washington, D.C., September 2017. 2.5.1 Deployment Status and Challenges The costs of installing and maintaining field infrastructure is the largest single impediment to further deployment of advanced traffic detection, control, and information technologies. Early deployments have consequently been limited to the most critical sections of the highway infrastructure: heavily congested freeways, generally in large urban areas. Agencies have begun to experiment with obtaining travel time and origin-destination information from non-infrastructure sources, like cell phone location data. Cell phone data, however, has not
Page: 136 yet reached the point where it can provide complete counts of activity and information on real- time conditions as fast and as completely as field-installed sensors. 2.5.2 Specific Examples Examples of innovative highway infrastructure installations (Federal Highway Administration, 2019): ï San Diego, California, Interstate-15 Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) project ï Richmond, California, I-80 ICM project ï Seattle, Washington, I-5/I-90/SR 520 freeway corridors ï Minneapolis, Minnesota, I-35W and I-94 freeways ï Arlington, Virginia, I-66 freeway ï Dallas, Texas, US-75 ICM project 2.5.3 Potential Impacts on Travel Advanced highway technologies, when combined with management strategies and applications to reduce travel time, delay, and cost, would tend to shift travel demand from the less technologically advanced modes to the more technologically advanced mode. For example, technology that is used to improve travel time reliability for automobile drivers but not so much for bus passengers will tend to shift bus passengers to the automobile mode. There might also be a net increase in overall travel demand as the infrastructure technologies are employed to reduce overall travel times and costs. However, the impacts of advanced management practices on average peak period corridor travel times tend to be on the order of 1 percent (Alexiadis, 2016). Studies of infrastructure improvements are specific to each implementation and its context. The results of two studies are cited below ï Dynamic Message Signs: Maryland State Highway Administration has evaluated the localized safety impacts of their highway DMSs from 2007 to 2010. The number of accidents, including property damage, injury, and fatality, decreased by 40 percent with the DMS deployment over the course of 4 years (Haghani, Hamedi, Fish, & Nouruzi, 2013) . ï The Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality project in DeSoto County, Mississippi: Mississippi DOT implemented ITS via DMS to broadcast warnings of crashes, travel times to major intersections, and other important messages. The project led to a 20 percent reduction in delays. In addition to saving travel time, this project is claimed to have improved air quality, emergency response to incidents, and traffic flow during peak hours (Stone, 2018). In the presence of CVs and AVs, the intersection control systems could be transformed from traffic lights to an optimized âslot-based intersection,â based on coordination of groups of vehicles combined with additional considerations for pedestrians and cyclists. The new control strategy could optimize flow and safety for all modes at intersections equipped with RSUs. RSUs facilitate
Page: 137 communications between vehicles, traffic controllers, and a traffic management center through low latency DSRC or through 4G LTE and 5G. 2.5.4 Land Use and Streetscape Implications New highway technologies will tend to lower travel costs where they are installed. ï Regional impacts: Lower cost travel tends to favor longer distance travel and dispersed land uses within urban areas. Lower cost travel within urban areas compared to rural areas also can draw new development from rural areas to urban areas. Urban areas with more advanced highway technologies may draw growth from less technologically advanced urban areas. ï Streetscape impacts: Street designs may need to allocate portions of the existing or future highway right of way for the installation of the various roadside technologies, their power supplies, and their supporting communication technologies. 2.5.5 Highway Infrastructure Implications Advanced technologies in the field, combined with advanced traffic management practices, have the potential to improve reliability and decrease delay. In the absence of smarter CVs and AVs, the effects will generally be marginal, on the order of 1 percent capacity improvement (Alexiadis, 2016). 2.5.6 Potential Implications for Logistics When combined with advanced traffic management and logistics applications, advanced highway technologies will tend to improve reliability and reduce truck shipping costs. Reduced truck shipping costs might draw shipments from other modes and increase the overall volume of shipments by all modes. More predictable shipping times might encourage the logistics sector to consolidate its warehousing and delivery infrastructure and, perhaps, locate its distribution centers on less expensive land on the fringes of large urban areas. Freight movement, parcel companies, and telecommunication companies could benefit from the application of smart highway technologies. Commercial truck owners, truck operators and decision makers, fright management companies, and supply chains will benefit from more advanced regulatory, weather, and traffic information sharing. 2.5.7 Policy and Planning Challenges Improved highway infrastructure will reduce delays and improve reliability. These improvements can promote economic development. They will also tend to increase highway travel, which will increase vehicular emissions (unless there is also a shift to non-emitting vehicles). They might increase development pressure on the fringes of urban areas.
Page: 138 State, county, city, and MPO operators of transportation facilities would be key players in advancing the implementation of smart highway technologies. 2.5.8 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Advanced highway infrastructure technologies are usually targeted to congested facilities. In rural areas, congestion tends to be focused during peak summer and winter tourist seasons in the vicinity of major tourist attractions. Tourists, being unfamiliar to the area and often using unfamiliar (rented) vehicles, pose special challenges to the application of advanced technologies. 2.6 PARKING SYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES Potentially transformational parking system technologies are similar to those of highway systems: sensors to monitor parking occupancy; control devices that set and collect parking fees; and informational devices that make travelers aware of parking availability, location, and pricing. Emerging informational technologies for on-street parking, off-street parking lots, and garages can guide vehicles to open parking spaces. These parking messages also may be posted on roadside variable message signs or directly transmitted to the driverâs cell phone or vehicle dashboard. Public parking systems currently tend to be focused on the personal automobile. However, in the future, they could include loading zones for trucks as well as bicycles and scooters. 2.6.1 Deployment Status and Challenges Larger urban areas have begun to see deployment of extensive advanced parking monitoring, information, pricing, and control systems. The primary impediment to more extensive implementation of transformational parking system technologies is cost. Cost-effectively monitoring the occupancy of individual parking spaces on-street and off-street is a major challenge. There are both up front construction/installation costs as well as ongoing operating costs. In high- density urban areas, parking fees may fully compensate for the added operating costs and perhaps eventually pay off the added costs of construction. 2.6.2 Specific Examples Examples of innovate parking system installations include the following in California:
Page: 139 ï SFpark in San Francisco (SFpark.org) ï DowntownLA.com in Los Angeles (downtownla.com) ï SpotHero in Los Angeles (spothero.com) 2.6.3 Potential Impacts on Travel Any system that makes it easier to park oneâs personal vehicle will tend to draw travelers to that mode from other modes of travel. The new parking system technologies may also increase total travel to the area where they are deployed. The superior guidance provided by parking system applications could eliminate âcircling the blockâ to find a parking space. 2.6.4 Land Use and Streetscape Implications By enabling agencies and the public to make better use of the available parking inventory, these new technologies may enable agencies to dedicate less street-space and less land to parking vehicles. They might enable better use of remote lots. Greater deployment of advanced parking system technologies might support greater densities of development and draw some development from fringe locations back to the urban core. These new technologies might enable agencies to modestly reduce off-street parking requirements for new development by facilitating shared use of parking spaces. 2.6.5 Highway Infrastructure Implications Better parking management employing the new technologies might enable agencies to reduce the provision of curbside parking in their street cross-sections. 2.6.6 Potential Implications for Logistics Parking technologies that enable truckers to more quickly find open loading zones and loading docks will reduce truck shipping costs and improve reliability. Reduced costs and improved reliability will increase the use of trucks for goods movement. 2.6.7 Policy and Planning Challenges Parking technologies that enable travelers to park their vehicles at lower cost will tend to draw more travelers to use that mode. There might be increased vehicular emissions associated with the increased use of vehicles. Parking technologies that require the traveler to have more than cash to park the car (e.g., a cell phone and a credit card) will tend to be inaccessible for travelers without those extra items.
Page: 140 2.6.8 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Parking systems are generally more expensive to operate than typical self-serve free parking lots, so such systems are generally inapplicable to rural settings. However, new parking systems may enable transitioning rural areas to achieve greater densities of development with the same initial parking supply.
Page: 141 3 APPLICATIONS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES Applications take the new transportation technologies, combine them, and put them to work to solve transportation problems. Exhibit 10 provides some examples of sophisticated applications of highway transportation technologies to address various mobility, government, and logistics needs. These are described in more detail in the following subsections. Exhibit 10: Transportation and Land Use Applications 3.1 PERSONAL MOBILITY AND LAND USE APPLICATIONS Transformational personal mobility and land use applications of new technologies generally replace the need to travel, facilitate travel (by decreasing the cost of travel or increasing awareness of the available travel options), and introduce new options for using underutilized land uses. 3.1.1 Applications Replacing the Need to Travel Applications that replace the need for personal travel operate over the internet. The IoT, e- commerce, and 3-D printing are examples of types of internet applications that replace the need to travel. IoT consist of a variety of technology and software applications that connect computing devices embedded in everyday devices (such as light switches, cameras, thermostats) to the internet. This enables remote monitoring and operation of household and business systems, thus replacing the need to travel to the site. E-commerce describes a variety of internet-based applications such as telecommuting, web conferencing, web entertainment, web shopping, remote education, and remote medical consultation. These applications reduce the need for person travel but do not eliminate the need
Page: 142 for goods movement; in fact, some of these applications will likely increase the demands on the national logistics system (see Exhibit 11). Exhibit 11: Example e-Commerce Applications 3-D Printing describes a variety of applications-enhanced printing technologies that enables a person or organization to operate a personalized, limited quantity manufacturing facility. 3-D printing does not quite eliminate the need for all travel and freight movement. The 3-D printer must still be fed the raw material (currently two varieties of plastic) from which the final product is produced. Plastic deliveries and waste hauling must still be made to and from each mini- manufacturing site. 3-D printers range in price from under $200 for very limited models to $15,000 for high-feature, high- capacity models (Google, 2018). 3-D printing is currently done using one of two different plastic feedstocks: Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polylactic acid (PLA). These materials currently cost about $30 per kilogram. ABS is a sturdier plastic. PLA is biodegradable and can be used for food packaging. PLA softens at lower temperatures (between 111 and 145 degrees Fahrenheit) (Rogers T. , 2015). TR News describes several potential and existing uses of 3-D printing in construction of transportation facilities (Khan, 2018).
Page: 143 22.214.171.124 Deployment Status and Challenges There are a variety of household and commercial applications of IOT technologies commercially available. Security applications enable remote monitoring of households and businesses, remote temperature control, and remote control of lighting. The technology behind e-commerce is already well established. E-commerce applications are already pervasive but have yet to reach their maximum potential as they seek to increase their market share. Consumer acceptance and the ability of entrepreneurs to identify new ways to lower costs and monetize their services are the primary constraints on rapid growth of IoT applications and e- commerce. 3-D printing is currently commercially available. Further deployment is currently limited by the cost of the printers and the material, and by the strength limitations of the available plastic raw materials. 126.96.36.199 Specific Examples Internet and mobile phone applications for e-commerce and other services are widely available. 188.8.131.52 Potential Impacts on Travel Applications that reduce the need to travel can significantly reduce travel demand as their market penetration and their capabilities increase. Current applications do not completely replace the need to travel or move goods. 3-D printers need to be supplied with raw materials. Goods bought on-line still need to be delivered. Some services, such as health services still require a visit to the hospital or the doctorâs office for some examinations and for most all treatments. Some work tasks require face-to-face meetings. Some jobs require a physical presence at the work site. Approximately 3 to 6 percent of workers in major urban areas of the U.S. worked from home in 2016 (Metropolitan Transportation Commission, 2019). A portion of the trips saved by these applications are replaced by new travel as people find new ways to fill their time. 184.108.40.206 Land Use and Streetscape Implications The ability to avoid travel for many activities will reduce the importance of proximity to work and other services in household and job location choice. This may increase the pressure for rural and urban fringe development.
Page: 144 Multiple âbrick and mortarâ establishments may be consolidated into show rooms and warehouses. Similarly, these new applications may consolidate multiple local businesses into a few national outlets. 220.127.116.11 Highway Infrastructure Implications By reducing the need to travel, these applications may reduce the need for more highway infrastructure capacity. 18.104.22.168 Potential Implications for Logistics With fewer people traveling to stores to shop and take home their purchases, the new e-shopping applications will increase the burden on the logistics system for quick delivery of purchases. 3-D printing would increase the delivery of plastic feedstock to businesses and residences. This increase might be compensated by reduced delivery of finished goods to the same businesses and residences. 22.214.171.124 Policy and Planning Challenges The new applications might promote the consolidation of local establishments into nationwide chains, which could result in the shuttering of local businesses. The lower prices, theoretically enabled by the greater competition, might result in economic benefits for users of the services. Conversely, the consolidation of local businesses into national enterprises may reduce retail jobs and price competition, with adverse socioeconomic effects. The challenges for public policy relate to ensuring that all residents have equal access to the resources available via the web. One basic public function is to ensure (through a mixture of regulations, public investment partnerships, and operating licenses) that all residents have basic broadband internet access. Cities and counties that operate/license/regulate cable and wireless services would be key players in advancing the market penetration of new internet applications and ensuring a level playing field for competitors. Federal and state governments have a role in defining net neutrality. 126.96.36.199 Special Considerations for Rural Areas High speed internet service is essential for successful e-commerce and telecommuting. Rural areas without high speed internet service will be disadvantaged compared to other areas. 3.1.2 Applications Facilitating Travel Applications for facilitating travel generally make the traveler more aware of the available transportation service options and their costs. They enable the traveler to make more effective use
Page: 145 of the available transportation services and infrastructure. These applications fall into two broad categories: wayfinding or navigational applications, and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) applications. MaaS applications assist travelers in hiring a vehicle with or without a driver. MaaS application come in many âflavors.â They could involve non-motorized vehicles or motorized vehicles, and the vehicles might be cars, vans, trucks, bicycles, or scooters. A hired driver might be provided with the vehicle, or the traveler might take charge of driving. Ride Hailing Applications â Exclusive Use: The hired vehicle may be an automobile, a van, or a limousine with driver. The hired vehicle may be a self-driving AV. The passenger hires the vehicle and driver for their exclusive use for the duration of the trip. Ride Hailing Applications â Shared Use: The passenger may share the hired vehicle and driver with other non-related passengers for a portion or all of the trip. Automobile Rental Applications: The traveler may choose a vehicle rental and/or sharing service where the traveler rents the vehicle (automobile, van, truck) without a driver for a specified time. Small Vehicle Rental Applications: The traveler may rent a Segway, a bicycle, an e-bike, a scooter, an e-scooter, or similar low-capacity (typically single person), low-speed (under 35 mph) vehicles Wayfinding internet applications do not provide a vehicle. They make travelers aware of traffic conditions and when the next transit vehicle will arrive. They provide routing services and expected arrival times. They locate nearby businesses of interest to the traveler. They make travelers aware of incidents and hazards. Other wayfinding apps are designed to help sight impaired pedestrians navigate their environment to reach transit stops and other destinations. These traveler information services are delivered to the traveler over personal communication devices anywhere with internet connection. 188.8.131.52 Deployment Status and Challenges Wayfinding applications like Google Maps â¢ and Apple Maps â¢ and many others are already pervasively available to users of internet services. Ride Hailing and Automobile Rental Applications, whether for exclusive or shared use, are already pervasive in many large urban areas. At large hotels, train stations, and airports, hiring a vehicle with a driver (a limousine, a taxi, a shuttle van) or renting a vehicle (car, van, truck) without a driver is already well established.
Page: 146 Newer ride hailing applications such as Uber and Lyft offer similar services at lower costs to the user. They use independent contractor drivers who provide their own vehicle integrated with a cell phone booking and billing application. These newer applications are currently being operated as loss leaders. The lower prices are currently subsidized by the providerâs investors. Newer automobile rental applications use internet booking and billing options. They have increased the number and convenience of the rental sites, often using public right of way and garages to park the vehicles between trips. These newer services are being operated as loss- leaders. Small Vehicle Rental Services (bicycle, scooter, and Segway) are currently available in shops located in many city tourist areas. Newer applications of small vehicle ride hailing services have combined the newer electric vehicle technologies with GPS tracking, sidewalk docking stations (or dockless), and internet booking and billing applications. They have also dramatically increased the number of rental sites (using public sidewalk space) and the number of vehicles available for rental. These newer services are currently being operated on a loss-leader basis. The newer small and large vehicle rental services are currently operating as loss leaders as each provider attempts to expand market share. Uber, a privately held company, lost $1 billion in 2017. It showed a profit in the first quarter of 2018 due to sales of its Russian and Southeast Asian businesses. In the second quarter of 2018, it took in $12 billion in gross bookings but spent $891 million more than it took in. Bookings are up 41 percent from a year earlier. About 80 percent of its gross bookings are paid out to its drivers (Conger, 2018). One dockless bike-share provider is facing bankruptcy in China (Zhong & Zhang, 2018). Their operations were initially funded by investors and the deposits provided by new subscribers. However, as the market reached saturation, investors were unwilling to increase their investments and revenues from new subscribers dropped off. L.A. Metro has enabled holders of its Metro Payment Cards to use their cards to rent bicycles (Descant, L.A. Metro Payment Card Now Accepts Bike-Share Service, 2019). 184.108.40.206 Specific Examples Examples of wayfinding applications include Google Maps â¢ and Apple Maps â¢ and many others. Examples of MaaS providers include Uber, Lyft, Gig, Lime Bike, Bird, Chariot, and Spin, among many others.
Page: 147 220.127.116.11 Potential Impacts on Travel Wayfinding Apps: By making travelers more aware of the available options and costs, the wayfinding apps make traveling easier and facilitate increased travel. It is conceivable that the wayfinding applications might also âscare awayâ travelers from making certain trips by making them more aware of the potential delays, but this effect has yet to be observed in a quantifiable way. MaaS Apps: The MaaS services are currently offering lower cost and more convenient services than were previously available. As such, they increase the share of travelers using their service at the expense of ridership declines in competing traditional services, such as taxi, limousine, and bus services. They also result in a net increase in vehicular travel (automobile, bicycle, and scooter) in their service areas. The City of San Francisco has estimated that MaaS automobile services (Uber and Lyft) currently account for 9 percent of the person trips in the downtown area and accounted for roughly one- half of the observed 10 percent increase in vehicle-miles traveled downtown over a 6-year period (2010 to 2016) (Castiglione, Cooper, Sana, & Ticshler, 2018). A consultant for New York City has predicted that full deployment of a 100,000 to 200,000 bike shared e-bike system in the city could switch as many as a million trips per day from cars, transit, or walking. About half of the trips shifting to e-bikes would come from public transit. About one-third of the e-bike trips would come from vehicle trips. Even with this switch, bike trips would still account for less than 4 percent of daily trips in the city (Plautz, Study: 1M daily NYC trips could be on e- bikes, 2018). Uber has found that its e-bike sharing operations are drawing riders from its automobile ride hailing service. When it enabled users of its ride-hailing app in San Francisco to rent Jump e-bikes as well, it found that overall trips by new Jump riders using the Uber platform climbed 15 percent, while Uber trips in cars and SUVs declined 10 percent. The greatest shifts occurred during high-traffic, congested periods of the day (McFarland, Uber's e-bikes are cannibalizing rides from Uber's cars, 2018). The City of Portland, Oregon, found that 34 percent of e-scooter trips in its downtown replaced automobile trips (either using their personal vehicle or using ride hailing) (Portland Bureau of Transportation, 2018). Washington, D.C. evaluated its 11-month old dockless bicycle sharing demonstration program (Liza, 2018). Six private companies participated: Bird, Jump, Lime, Lyft, Skip, and Spin. The companies transitioned from conventional pedal bicycles to e-bikes and e-scooters over the course of the demonstration. Each operator was limited to 400 vehicles, which caused some providers to leave the demonstration program, saying that was not enough to achieve critical mass for the operators. During this demonstration, the City continued to operate its docked bikeshare program, Capital Bikeshare. Listed below are observations from the study:
Page: 148 ï The docked bicycle share usage was generally unaffected by the limited dockless demonstration. The docked bicycles seem to be used by regular commuters and tend to see more even usage throughout the day. ï The dockless bicycles did not significantly extend the geographic range of shared bicycle usage over that of the docked bicycles. ï Bicycle crashes increased. Dockless bicycle users appear to be at significantly higher risk of crashing compared to docked bicycles. Note that the dockless bicycles transitioned to e- bikes and e-scooters over the course of the demonstration project. The docked bicycles remained pedal powered. ï City staff found that about 10 percent of the dockless bicycles were parked in undesirable locations. Three percent blocked pedestrian access. 18.104.22.168 Land Use and Streetscape Implications The new MaaS services need safe and convenient places within the public right of way to pick up and drop off passengers. They need places safe and convenient places within the right of way but outside of the pedestrian and vehicle travel lanes to store their bicycles and scooter in between trips. Street designs need to be developed to incorporate these pick-up/drop-off/ and storage places into the right of way of new streets and to retrofit these places into existing streetscapes. Long term on-street and off-street parking demands may be reduced by these MaaS services. 22.214.171.124 Highway Infrastructure Implications MaaS applications will increase the need for pick-up/drop-off zones, vehicular lanes, bicycle lanes, and sidewalk space in the downtown setting. 126.96.36.199 Potential Implications for Logistics The wayfinding applications make fleet operators and drivers aware of traffic conditions, thus enabling them to more efficiently and reliably deliver goods. MaaS applications make it cost- effective for logistic services to contract with travelers to deliver small, lightweight goods to individual doorsteps of businesses and residences. 188.8.131.52 Policy and Planning Challenges The policy and planning challenges are different for MaaS and for Wayfinding apps. MaaS Applications: The policy and planning challenges of MaaS applications is adapting the current regulatory and transportation infrastructure to the new usage patterns occasioned by MaaS applications. Greater bicycle, scooter, and ride hailing service use will require adjustments to the allocation of street space to all of the modes of travel. Regulations designed for licensed
Page: 149 motorcycle drivers and vehicles need to be adapted for lighter, lower speed rented vehicles. Agencies need to develop policies for the sharing of sidewalk space, curb space, and travel lanes among automobiles, trucks, bicycles, e-bikes, e-scooters, and pedestrians. Disabled Access: Provision of accessibility for the disabled is a challenge. Detroit is currently pilot- testing hand-powered tricycle rentals. Some providers have found the accessible bicycles to be difficult to maintain (few manufacturers) and a learning challenge for novice users. There is also the challenge that the one-way user faces of securing a wheel chair at the destination of the trip (Zaveri, 2018). Partnering: For agencies desiring to promote greater bicycle use through private sector partnerships, the challenges include regulating the activities of the private partner, securing steady public funding, and setting market-sensitive rates. Without the in-house expertise, the experiment can be painful for all concerned (Campbell, 2018). Regulation: The NACTO has published guidelines for the regulation and management of shared active transportation (NACTO, 2018). The guidelines cover the following topics: ï Oversight and authority ï Data standards ï Small vehicle standards for the shared-use context ï Small vehicle parking ï Community engagement and equity NACTO recommends that uniform national standards be established for the first three topics, and local level standards should be developed by each city to deal with small vehicle parking, community engagement, and equity. Crashes: Pedestrian/e-bike crashes have been a concern in some cities. New York City limited the speeds of e-bikes out of concern for pedestrian safety. However, international data suggest that the greatest danger is to the bicyclists themselves. A Netherlands study found that older (over 65) male cyclists were most prone to injury. They suspect that one factor might be the higher speeds made possible by e-bikes for that age group. Switzerland also found higher vulnerability for older male cyclists but pointed to tram rails as a factor in many crashes. Beijing focused on car-e-bike crashes and found that many bicyclist injuries were associated with lack of helmet use (Barnard, 2018). Data: It has been difficult for cities to obtain usage data from bike-share and scooter-share companies; however, the industry has begun to realize the value of cooperating with cities, such as sharing data with cities and making charitable contributions (Hawkins, Scooter companies are trying to rehabilitate their reputations as cities crack down, 2018).
Page: 150 Equity: Many of the MaaS services function without cash. Many shops are going cashless. A cashless economy tends to shut out those without access to credit cards and debit cards. About 7 percent of households in U.S. do not have a checking or savings account. Another 19 percent rely on products and services outside of the conventional banking system. New York City is considering requiring certain businesses to accept cash payments (Bellafonte, 2018). Measuring equity impacts is a challenge. Equity involves availability and use of the vehicles. A report by Clewlow of Populus Technologies illustrates one approach to measuring equity for shared mobility services (Clewlow, Foti, & Shepard-Ohta, 2018). A recent study of bike-share systems in Chicago found that community groups could be suspicious of bike share services as being the harbinger of gentrification (Plautz, As bike-share expands, neighborhood perception is key , 2019). Wayfinding Applications: The policy challenge of wayfinding applications is that they currently treat all public roads as equally acceptable for use. This conflicts with the desire of agencies to minimize traffic using residential streets and other sensitive land uses, such as schools and hospitals. As agencies adopt various peak-period turn restrictions to eliminate traffic cutting through neighborhoods, the challenge is making all of the wayfinding applications aware of the new time- of-day restrictions, traffic diverters. Different wayfinding application vendors have different lag times between when a new restriction is placed in the field and when it shows up in their app. Identifying the appropriate persons within the vendorâs organization to contact is not always clear. 184.108.40.206 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Rural areas may not have the critical market size to attract MaaS providers to serve their area. Some blend of regulation and incentives may be required to encourage MaaS operations in a rural area. 220.127.116.11 Special Considerations for Public Transit The new wayfinding and MaaS services provide new tools for improving the publicâs transit riding experience, new tools for cost-effectively delivering public transit services, and new challenges for public transit providers. Wayfinding applications are being integrated with public transit applications to provide seamless wayfinding for automobile, transit, and other modes of travel. Transit applications enable booking and payment for transit services. MaaS services provide first mile and last mile access to public transit stops. At the same time, the more convenient services and price structure of MaaS services also attract shorter distance trips that would have taken transit. Three Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) reports address the public transit impacts and opportunities for working with MaaS providers: ï TCRP Synthesis 132: âPublic Transit and Bikesharingâ (Hernandez, Eldridge, & Lukacs, 2018)
Page: 151 ï TCRP Report 188, âShared Mobility and the Transformation of Public Transitâ (Feigon & Murphy, TCRP Research Report 188: Shared Mobility and the Transformation of Public Transit, 2016) ï TCRP Report 195, âBroadening Understanding of the Interplay Between Public Transit, Shared Mobility, and Personal Automobilesâ (Feigon & Murphy, TCRP Research Report 195: Broadening Understanding of the Interplay Among Public Transit, Shared Mobility, and Personal Automobiles, 2018) TCRP Report 195 recommends that public transit agencies proactively engage with MaaS services through partnerships. Their guidance varies by the size of the urban area in which the public transit service operates. Transit Agencies in Large Urban Areas should focus on the following partnerships and policies that align transit agenciesâ and Transportation Network Companiesâ (TNCs) incentives: ï Specific curb space near transit stops should be designated for for-hire vehicle pickups and drop offs. ï Cost saving partnerships should be pursued for call-n-ride, paratransit, and late-night services. ï Transit agencies should pursue the role of mobility broker/manager. ï Transit agencies need to track and understand MaaS usage. Transit Agencies in Mid-sized Urban Areas should: ï Pursue first-mile/last-mile partnerships to expand transitâs reach. ï Use co-marketing to reach new transit riders. ï Support integration of transit into mobile wayfinding apps. ï Partner with large employers and institutions on transportation demand management. Transit Agencies in Smaller Urban Areas should pursue partnerships to fill service gaps, and use MaaS services to support demand responsive transit services. 3.1.3 Applications Increasing Land Use Flexibility Transformational internet applications that increase land use efficiency and flexibility seek to connect people owning underutilized space with others desiring to use the space (sometimes in new ways) for a limited period. The applications might involve peer-to-peer or hosted (curated) sharing of underutilized spaces. Providers of remote work space may contract with restaurants and other venues for space not typically used during working hours and rent that space out by the hour or day to members (Bowles, 2019). Home owners and apartment
Page: 152 owners may rent out their residences by the night. Owners of private residential parking spaces may seek to rent out their parking space while they are at work. Some urban developers are looking into new technology applications (listed below) for reducing construction costs and increasing the attractiveness of buildings to new tenants (Chen, 2018): ï Modular housing can be built faster and cheaper than traditional construction. ï Robotic parking systems can decrease the land space devoted to parking. ï Signal boosting devices inside new building can allow cell phone reception within high-rise towers. ï New technologies can also enable luxury amenities. Other urban land developers are including agricultural uses within residential developments (Kendall, 2018). 18.104.22.168 Deployment Status and Challenges Several residential sharing applications are already in place (Air BnB, for example). Other built- space sharing applications are currently in pilot testing or are under development. 22.214.171.124 Potential Impacts on Travel By intensifying the usage of existing land uses, built-space sharing applications will in turn increase the traffic impacts of those uses. 126.96.36.199 Land Use and Streetscape Implications Land use sharing applications will support higher utilization of existing built-spaces. They might reduce the demand for traditional work spaces and parking spaces. 188.8.131.52 Highway Infrastructure Implications Highway infrastructure might need to be added to serve the increasingly intense demands of shared built-spaces. 184.108.40.206 Potential Implications for Logistics Greater intensity land uses may require more intense logistical support services. 220.127.116.11 Policy and Planning Challenges Monitoring and enforcing land use and zoning regulations is a major challenge with shared-built uses applications, which require new regulations and enforcement methods.
Page: 153 18.104.22.168 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Monitoring and enforcing land use and zoning regulations is particularly challenging in rural areas, where the structures might be far removed from the public right of way. 3.2 GOVERNMENT SERVICES APPLICATIONS Governments provide various public services to their citizens: emergency services (police, fire, medical), social services, and public utilities (transportation, water, electricity, waste management), among others. Potentially transformational government service applications enable governments to provide superior services at lower costs and in a timelier manner. The discussion below touches briefly on applications improving the delivery of general government services, and then focuses in more depth on government services applications that already or will in the future improve specific transportation and parking services. 3.2.1 Applications Improving General Government Services Smart City and Smart Community initiatives develop and integrate data repository and communications applications for better monitoring real- time needs and managing deliveries of government services. Smart City/Community applications are often centered on a central Integrated Data Exchange, which all divisions of the agency contribute data to and draw information from. The public can also contribute (through requests for services and notification of events) to the Integrated Data Exchange and draw from it to improve their use of government services. Following are two (of the many) resources available for agencies considering employing technology to improve the delivery of government services: - NCHRP Research Report 885, Guide to Creating and Sustaining a Culture of Innovation for Departments of Transportation, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2018. - The Columbus Playbook, a website of materials assembled by the City of Columbus, Ohio, to guide other agencies considering improving their use of technology (for more information, see https://smart.columbus.gov/playbook/) Several cities have created smart city action plans that can be consulted. Examples can easily be found by searching the internet for âsmart city action planâ. Among the many cities there are: Portland, Oregon; Fremont, California; Chula Vista, California. The website, http://www.smartcitiesguru.com/smart-city-action-plan/, provides guidance on developing a smart city action plan.
Page: 154 3.2.2 Applications Improving the Delivery of Transportation Services Applications for improving highway and transit travel generally employ a combination of vehicle communications devices and smarter field devices (such as traffic signals and smart transit stops). These applications could improve highway facility management and improve transit fleet management. Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM), Integrated Corridor Management (ICM), and ITS are highway management strategies that take advantage of the new functionalities made possible by the new technologies. ICM employs a variety of management subsystems to optimize the movement of people and vehicles through a transportation corridor. These include transit management, freeway management, arterial management, incident management, and traveler information services (Christie, Hardesty, Hatcher, & Merce, 2015). Two example applications within an ICM system are described below: ï ICM Incident Management with CVs: Exhibit 12 illustrates one possible application of connected vehicle technology to improve safety within the Incident management subsystem of an ICM system. In this example, the downstream CVs report to the TMC that they are stopped. The TMC employs various management algorithms to decide what to do about the situation. It chooses to send messages to the upstream CVs warning them of the downstream congestion and suggesting a suitable speed for approaching the stopped vehicles. ï ICM Arterial Management with CVs: One arterial management application that has been developed for using the greater information provided by CVs is the multimodal intelligent traffic signal system (MMITSS). MMITSS is a comprehensive traffic signal system that takes advantage of the connected vehicle environment to optimize arterial operation for all vehicular and non-vehicular modes of travel (see Exhibit 13). MMITSS incorporates Intelligent Traffic Signal System, Transit Signal Priority, Mobile Accessible Pedestrian Signal System, Emergency Vehicle Preemption, and Freight Signal Priority algorithms for optimizing arterial operations (Federal Highway Administration, 2015).
Page: 155 Exhibit 12: Example ICM Incident Management CV Application Adapted from Concept of Operations, Concept Development and Needs Identification for Intelligent network Flow Optimization, Final Report, FHWA-JPO-13-012, June 2012. (Mahmassani, Rakha, Hubbard, & Lukasik, 2012) Exhibit 13: Example ICM Arterial Management Application of CVs The vehicles and the pedestrian report their location and status to the MMITSS controller. The bus may report information on its passenger load and schedule status (early, on-time, late). Similarly, the truck may report whether it is loaded or not. The MMTISS control algorithm assigns priorities to each vehicle and pedestrian and determines the appropriate timing of the signal displays that best meet the agencyâs objectives for operating the arterial. Active Traffic Management (ATM) seeks to maximize the reliability, effectiveness, and efficiency of the transportation system through dynamic real-time management of recurrent and non-recurrent congestion (Federal Highway Administration, 2019). ATM employs one or more of the following management strategies, depending on the available system resources and local conditions:
Page: 156 ï Adaptive Ramp Metering ï Adaptive Traffic Signal Control ï Dynamic Junction Control ï Dynamic Lane Control ï Dynamic Shoulder Lanes ï Dynamic Speed Limits ï Queue Warning ï Transit Signal Priority (TSP) ï Dynamic Toll Express Lanes ï Traveler Information, DMS ï Emergency response, incident management ï Automated enforcement ï Sensing Technologies Active Demand Management (ADM) uses information and pricing to adjust travel demand to better fit the capacity available in the transportation system. ADM employs the following management strategies: ï Dynamic fares ï Dynamic HOV /managed lanes (changing automobile occupancy requirements) ï Dynamic pricing ï Dynamic rideshare matching ï Dynamic routing ï Dynamic transit capacity reallocation ï On-demand transit ï Predictive traveler information ï Transfer connection protection Public Transit Service Delivery: Transit agencies employ various management strategies to take advantage of the superior information systems provided by new technologies. They may use the technologies to better monitor the status of their vehicle fleet and better inform their passengers of the next bus. They might also reach out to MaaS providers to identify partnership opportunities that improve the rider experience. Transit operator strategies for employing new technologies are covered in the TCRP J-07 series, âSynthesis of Information Related to Transit Practices.â Particularly relevant syntheses include J- J- 07/Topic SG-08 Information Technology Update for Transit and 07/Topic SH-07 Web Based Survey
Page: 157 Techniques for Transit. Examples of technology applications in public transit include on-demand transit, dynamic transit reallocation, and transfer connection protection: ï On-demand transit/dynamic transit reallocation: On-demand transit refers to dynamic transit routing that adjusts transit capacity to respond to demand. Most rural systems provide demand-responsive, flexibly routed service to more efficiently allocate scarce transit resources to meet low and unconcentrated demand. Some urban systems also provide this service. Services can range from manual âDial-a-Rideâ services to dynamic transit assignment. ï Transfer connection protection: Transfer connection protection refers to the practice of guaranteeing rides to ridersâ final destinations in the event that a connection is late or missed. This practice relieves some of the stress associated with transit travel. Guaranteed Ride Home programs are one example of this protection. These programs aim to provide ride options to transit users who may face extenuating circumstances, such as a missed transit connection. 22.214.171.124 Deployment Status and Challenges Advanced traffic management systems like ATDM and ICM are in the pilot testing stage and are the subject of special federal demonstration grants. The integration of ATDM and ICM with CVs is still in the research and development stage. The challenges to greater deployment are finalizing the development of the control algorithms that employ CV information and greater deployment of CV capabilities in the vehicle fleet and the roadside infrastructure. The FHWA website provides listings of current research and installations (https://www.its.dot.gov/research_archives/dma/index.htm). ATM treatments are generally found to improve trip reliability, safety, and throughput of the surface transportation system by deploying operational strategies; however, there are also unique challenges for agencies associated with each treatment. A recent report published by FHWA addresses some of these challenges and describes a stepwise approach to accomplishing the implementation through the application of the system engineering process; comprehensive planning; and organizational considerations, capabilities, and design considerations (Kuhn, Balke, & Wood, Active Traffic Management (ATM) Implementation and Operations Guide, 2017). 126.96.36.199 Specific Examples See the FHWA website for listings of current research and installations at: (https://www.its.dot.gov/research_archives/dma/index.htm). 188.8.131.52 Potential Impacts on Travel The new traffic management strategies for employing CVs will likely reduce congestion and delays, and improve reliability.
Page: 158 ICM by itself, without CV, reduced mean travel times by less than 1 percent (Alexiadis, 2016). Combining ICM with CVs should enhance that impact. Reduced congestion and improved reliability should attract more drivers to the corridor from other corridors and other modes. ADM strategies decrease travel demand or redirect it so that congestion is reduced in peak periods and on busy facilities. Dynamic pricing of roadways or parking facilities leads to a higher impedance to travel and thus a lower demand in peak periods. HOT lanes incentivize carpooling and thus lower vehicular demand. Dynamic rideshare matching reduces deadhead times when vehicles run empty to pick up a passenger, and encourages carpooling, while dynamic routing decreases local circulation and routes vehicles around high congestion facilities. On-demand transit and transfer connection can increase transit use while decreasing single-occupancy vehicle use and thus congestion. These strategies also decrease the impedance to transportation by making transportation options more seamless. Decreased congestion, though at a price, makes travel faster and easier. Dynamic routing, ride-share matching, and on-demand transit use technology to make various modes of transportation easier. Transfer connection protection decreases stress associated with transit use. To the extent that these strategies decrease the impedance to single-occupancy vehicle travel, these strategies have the potential to raise travel demand. Some of the strategies, however, decrease the impedance for carpooling or transit use, which can decrease travel demand. When overall impedance to vehicular travel goes up, travel demand decreases, and the built environment gravitates towards multimodal-oriented land uses. When overall impedance to vehicular travel goes down, travel demand increases, and the built environment gravitates towards automobile-oriented land uses. 184.108.40.206 Land Use and Streetscape Implications Lower travel times and greater reliability will tend to enhance the spread of urban development. 220.127.116.11 Highway Infrastructure Implications The new traffic management strategies for employing CVs will likely increase highway capacities. The magnitude of the impacts is unknown as of 2018. ICM by itself, without CV, reduced average travel times by less than 1 percent (Alexiadis, 2016). CVs should enhance that impact. Capacity increases from these new management strategies would need to be around 20 percent to avoid having to widen a five-lane freeway to a six-lane freeway. However, much lower capacity increases would still allow an agency to postpone a capacity increase for a few additional years.
Page: 159 18.104.22.168 Potential Implications for Logistics New traffic management strategies utilizing the new CV technologies would reduce shipping delays and increase reliability. 22.214.171.124 Policy and Planning Challenges The policy and planning challenges relate to funding of the infrastructure improvements and prioritizing them within the region and state. Management strategies that encourage desired behavior face few public acceptance hurdles, while other ADM strategies that discourage undesired behavior may face significant public acceptance hurdles. 126.96.36.199 Special Considerations for Rural Areas The new management strategies are generally applicable to congested areas. They may be appropriate in rural high-density tourist destinations that experience seasonal congestion. 3.2.3 Applications Improving the Delivery of Parking Services Applications taking advantage of improved field sensors can improve curbside parking management and off-street parking management. These applications may dynamically set parking rates to maximize use. They may provide real time information to travelers via cell phones or DMS signs to minimize wasted searching for and available parking space. By identifying and assigning open curb space and directing drivers to the appropriate curbside zone, they improve the safe management of pedestrians, bicyclists, transit passengers, and taxi passengers on the sidewalks and along the curbside. Active Parking Management is the dynamic management of parking facilities to optimize the performance and use of on-street and off-street parking (Federal Highway Administration, 2019). Active Parking Management employs the following management strategies: ï Dynamic overflow transit parking ï Dynamic parking reservation ï Dynamic wayfinding ï Dynamic pricing Dynamic overflow transit parking provides overflow parking for those accessing transit stations or park-and-ride locations at otherwise underutilized parking locations. Transit parking is monitored, and users are rerouted when transit-specific facilities are at or near capacity. The transit agency may have joint-use agreements with lot owners to allow the transit agency to use the lot during times when the lot is generally underutilized. Matching the surrounding land uses with different peak parking periods, like retail or evening dining locations, can make the
Page: 160 parking system more efficient by using spaces that would otherwise be underutilized at those time periods. This strategy combines the strategy of shared parking or joint-use parking with data management. Although the dynamic overflow transit parking strategy is specific for those accessing a transit station or park-and-ride location, the strategy of monitoring parking demand and sharing parking appropriately does not have to be transit-specific. Dynamic parking reservation provides a user with the opportunity to reserve a parking spot before arriving at the parking location. Private or public parking providers can implement dynamic parking reservation systems. Often parking garages or surface lots are easier to monitor for inventory and to prevent another vehicle from taking reserved spots. SpotHero is one example of a private company that provides dynamic parking reservations. SpotHero works with partner companies who provide and monitor parking while SpotHero provides the platform for reserving a parking spot. Parking spots are not physically blocked off for those who have reserved the spots, but inventory trends are used to estimate the number of spots that will be available for reservations. The City of Sacramento is an example of a public entity that provides dynamic parking reservation, but the service is provided only for event parking in several off-street lots (City of Sacramento, 2019). Dynamic wayfinding provides drivers with routing to available parking. The availability of parking can be informed by data from sensors, parking reservation information, parking lot or garage ingress and egress information, or human involvement. Based on the type of data, wayfinding can be provided to a specific spot or to a general parking area. The Portland (Oregon) International Airport parking lot uses sensors in the parking spots to inform whether or not a garage or floor of a garage is full. This information is communicated to customers through dynamic signage. Each individual parking space includes a light that shines green if the spot is available to point customers to specific available parking spots. SFpark in the City of San Francisco also uses sensors to identify open spaces and direct drivers to available parking locations by providing real-time availability and cost information online and through mobile apps (SF Park, 2019). Sensors can be expensive to install and maintain. ParkDC in Washington, D.C., provides users with general estimations of parking availability along a block or corridor by processing paid parking reservations, rather than installing sensors. Dynamic pricing is the strategy of changing the price of parking in a specific area based on demand. Many of the agencies that use dynamic wayfinding also use dynamic pricing strategies because the information that informs dynamic wayfinding and the forms of presenting dynamic wayfinding to customers are similar or the same as for dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing successfully redistributes parking demand by increasing the price of higher demand parking and decreasing the price of lower demand parking. Informing customers of price differences through dynamic wayfinding is an important way to enable customers to choose lower demand and lower priced parking locations. San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C., are just a few of the cities that use dynamic pricing. Most cities, like Washington, use historical parking data to inform the parking pricing. Although
Page: 161 parking prices can change up to four times a day, costs are consistent for each time period for about three to four months, until they are revisited. In San Francisco, SFpark adjusts the prices of 7,000 parking meters to achieve a target occupancy rate for on-street spaces. The program has also experimented with adjusting the prices of 11,500 off-street parking spaces in city-owned garages to improve parking efficiency and reduce traffic. The program has received praise from transportation policymakers and professionals and has increased revenues and occupancies for the City (Pierce, Willson, & Shoup, 2018). Curbside Management: Automobile parking is only one use of the curb. Transit stops, bike corrals, commercial vehicle loading, mobile vendors, sidewalk cafes, parks, and ride hailing pick-up and drop-off are just a few other uses. An increased use of ride hailing and automated/autonomous vehicles will decrease the need for parking and increase the need for pick-up/drop-off curb space. Similarly, an increase in bikeshare, scooter-share, micro-transit, and personal freight delivery will increase other needs for access to the curb. In addition to active parking management, general curbside management will become an increasing priority, especially in urban and suburban areas. In the U. S., curbside management strategies have been undertaken at several locations. One curbside management strategy is to implement shared use mobility (SUM) zones, or to change curb use by time of day or time of week. This can allow for ride-hailing companies to provide passenger pick-up and drop-off during peak times; provide designated areas for freight delivery; and provide parking, pedestrian zones, sidewalk cafes, or other uses during other parts of the day. Washington, D.C., and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, have both implemented SUM. Starting in October 2017, for one year, Washington is piloting the conversion of a parking area near bars and restaurants in DuPont Circle into pick-up and drop-off zones for TNCs such as Uber and Lyft, and for taxicabs (Shared-Use Mobility Center, 2017). The Institute of Transportation Engineers has published a Curbside Management Practitioners Guide (Institute of Transportation Engineers, 2018) that identifies tools and treatments for managing curbside use by pedestrians, bicyclists, transit, automobiles, and trucks. The guide identifies a process for selecting the appropriate treatments and monitoring their performance. 188.8.131.52 Deployment Status and Challenges Sophisticated parking system applications have been deployed by public agency operators of off-street parking garages. Some applications have been extended to cover selected on-street parking areas. The major challenge to greater deployment is the installation and maintenance costs of parking space-specific occupancy detectors. Other applications have been developed by the private sector to tell users where to find an available parked rental vehicle (car, bicycle, or scooter).
Page: 162 The challenges for further deployment of parking and curbside management strategies relate to finding the necessary funds for the initial investments in sensors as well as the continuing maintenance and operating costs for those sensors. Installing and maintaining sensor systems for active parking and curbside management tends to be more cost and time intensive than more passive strategies but can provide the highest level of detailed data and optimization options. Other policy challenges include balancing investments by mode of travel (automobile versus other modes) and against other government needs. Earning public support for strategy implementation is a key challenge when residents and businesses take a proprietary perspective on the parking spaces in front of their establishment. As ride hailing and AV usage increases, revenue from parking and traffic violations will decrease. To make up for lost revenues and leverage the infrastructure assets that cities have invested in, cities should move toward pricing their curbs appropriately. Pricing can also be used to help achieve a cityâs goals. For example, if promoting active transportation and improving mobility are goals of the city, areas reserved for bicycle parking along the curb may be provided for free and pooled-rideshare rides or microtransit may be charged less for curb access than a zero- occupancy vehicle or single-occupancy vehicle. Establishing a system for curbside pricing and implementing curb fees will be a challenge because the technology for curb access, other than for parking, does not yet exist. Another associated policy challenge will be discouraging rideshare vehicles from circulating in an area, thus increasing VMT and congestion, while waiting to match with potential riders. Charging curb usage fees will likely deter rideshare vehicles and taxis from waiting on the curb. Some solutions to this potential issue are providing specific reduced-price areas for vehicles to wait in or implementing road usage fees so that it is most cost-effective for vehicles to wait at the curb. 184.108.40.206 Specific Examples Examples of parking applications include SFpark and SpotHero. Although there are not yet examples of cities pricing the curb directly, there are a few examples of cities charging emerging technologies for using public assets. Many cities are charging TNCs a fee per ride. For example, Portland, Oregon, charges 50 cents per TNC ride. These charges are directly passed onto the rider. Additionally, San Francisco has started charging private company shuttle buses for the use of city bus stops. They are charged about $1 per stop per day, which is the maximum allowed by California state law (Jaffe, 2014). 220.127.116.11 Potential Impacts on Travel By giving drivers greater certainty finding a parking space, these applications make driving a vehicle more convenient. These applications will therefore tend to encourage greater use of the modes for which the applications have been developed.
Page: 163 An Uber funded study of curbside use in San Francisco found that the peaking of Uber pick-up and drop-off activity generally mirrored the peaking of automobile traffic on the street (Fehr & Peers, 2018). Ride-hailing services (including conventional taxis and shuttle van services) accounted for 50 to 60 percent of the vehicle activity and 35 to 63 percent of the people activity at four of the five curb sites selected for study. The fifth site had no bus service. At that latter site, over 95 percent of vehicle and people activity was related to the ride-hailing services. 18.104.22.168 Land Use and Streetscape Implications Parking applications enable parking providers to locate their parking lots and garages in less visible locations, counting on the application to guide users to their facility. 22.214.171.124 Highway Infrastructure Implications Parking applications might enable agencies to replace highly visible curbside parking with less visible off-street parking. 126.96.36.199 Potential Implications for Logistics Logistics parking applications could enable urban delivery services to locate open loading zones and docks, but they would require that occupancy detectors be installed in those zones and docks. 188.8.131.52 Policy and Planning Challenges The parking applications may enable more businesses to take advantage of shared parking in publicly required private lots. The relevant agency would need to develop the policy and regulatory framework for incentivizing the shared use of private parking lots. The private sector parking applications for vehicle rentals (automobile, bicycle, and scooter) will increase parking demand for temporarily storing rental vehicles, which will require agency policies and plans for locating the needed parking spaces in or near the public right of way. Cities and mass transit operators would be key players in advancing the implementation of advanced parking and curbside management strategies. While transit operators and the local transportation department may initiate consideration of parking and curbside management strategies, the more aggressive strategies will often require involvement of the city council and some sort of public participation process. An environmental review process may be required, depending on state and local regulations and sensitivities.
Page: 164 184.108.40.206 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Parking applications are unlikely to directly affect rural areas. However, parking applications may be useful to rural areas transitioning to more intense urban uses. The parking applications would enable more intense uses to be served by fewer parking spaces. 3.3 LOGISITICS APPLICATIONS Logistics applications employ the greater information and greater flexibility provided by new transportation technologies to reduce delivery times and reduce goods movement costs. The new technologies are being applied in a variety of logistic areas. Potential logistics applications of new technology include the following (Chottani, Hasting, Murmane, & Neuhaus, 2018): ï Automated/autonomous Trucks: Approximately 65 percent of the nationâs consumable goods move by truck. Automated/autonomous trucks may reduce shipping costs by 40 percent. ï E-commerce: Shopping at home accounts for around 15 percent of all purchases in the US. Same day delivery accounts for 5 percent of deliveries. In 5 years, same day delivery might reach 15 percent. ï Automation of the Supply Chain: Collaborative robots, advanced sorting systems, and indoor drones might reduce logistics costs by 40 percent. ï Asset Sharing: New applications match demand and supply (dating services in essence) for trucks, warehouses, trains, and ships. Last-mile crowdsourcing models bring âby the pieceâ independent contractors to deliver goods to the doorstep. ï Data Analytics: New data and data analytics are enabling carriers to predict demand and optimize routes. Some shippers have been able to significantly reduce inventories and save on warehousing costs. New routing analytics are enabling significant cost savings. The new technologies can reduce truck shipping fuel and labor costs, which are significant considerations for shippers. Fuel accounts for about 20 percent of the shipping cost. Labor (the driver) accounts for another 45 percent of the shipping cost (Kawamura, 2018). An additional application of new technology being pilot tested by various State DOTs in the mid- west and south helps truck drivers identify available safe overnight parking spots along the interstate freeway. This has become a critical need as the federal government has increased enforcement of limits on driving time between long rest periods. The applications and their effects vary according to the type of truck service: long distance line haul (usually trips greater than 50 miles between urban areas) and last-mile delivery services to the doorsteps of residences and businesses.
Page: 165 3.3.1 Applications Improving Line Haul Line haul trucking services are generally interurban trips in the 50 to 700 miles range. At longer distances, trucks compete with railroad and air cargo services. Within this range, trucks are the predominant mode for freight transport. Applications of new technologies to line haul trucking include truck platooning to save on fuel costs and self-driving trucks to save on labor costs. Truck platooning is currently being researched as an application of AV technology that allows two AV controlled trucks to closely follow a human-driven lead truck. Taking into account that roughly 65% of the vehicle-miles driven by trucks are amenable to freeway truck platooning, it is estimated that truck platooning could achieve an overall 4% reduction in total truck fuel consumption (National Renewable Energy Lab, 2019). The fuel cost savings would therefore be on the order of 1 to 2 percent of the per mile truck operating costs. Some researchers are concerned about the potential for overheating of the engines and tires in the trailing vehicles when platooning is deployed for long distances. The concentrated loading on highway bridges is another concern. Self-Driving Trucks offer the potential of reducing labor costs to zero for line haul services. The estimated 45 percent in labor cost savings would be traded off against increased purchase and maintenance costs for the trucks. 220.127.116.11 Deployment Status and Challenges Truck platooning and self-driving trucks are still in the research and development phase. The private sector is actively engaged in pursuing this research. These applications have been tested on the freeways of Arizona with a human monitor/driver present. The best combination of detectors, control software, and the human monitor/driver for freeway operations is still under development. The initial deployments will tend to be on rural freeways, where the driving challenges are lower than on a congested freeway. 18.104.22.168 Specific Examples Self-driving trucks operated on the I-10 freeway between El Paso, Texas, and Palm Springs California (Davies, 2017). A human operator rode in the cab to monitor the computer. Uber has been using self-driving trucks to move freight on Arizonaâs interstate highways (McFarland, Uber self-driving trucks are now hauling freight, 2018). A human driver remains behind the steering wheel. Human and driverless truck cabs are switched out at transfer centers. 22.214.171.124 Potential Impacts on Travel The impacts of these line-haul truck shipping applications on person travel are likely to be minor.
Page: 166 126.96.36.199 Land Use and Streetscape Implications Lower truck shipping costs will require larger capacity warehouses and distribution centers to handle the increased volume of goods moving by trucks. Reduced rail travel may open up some railyards to redevelopment. 188.8.131.52 Highway Infrastructure Implications Truck platoons might increase the difficulty in changing lanes and entering/exiting freeways. Theoretical studies estimate that with 100% truck platooning the capacity of a truck-only freeway lane could be doubled. Simulation studies of lower percentages of trucks platooning suggest that the increase in freeway capacity for the truck lane would be under 10 percent at 50 percent of the truck fleet platooning (Kuhn, Lukuc, Poorsartep, & Wagner, 2017). Increased truck movements on freeways might reduce freeway capacities, particularly in mountainous areas with long grades. Load limits on highway bridges will need to be reconsidered in light of truck platoon point loads. Some retrofitting or reconstruction of highway bridges might be required. 184.108.40.206 Potential Implications for Logistics The potential reductions in truck shipping costs offered by these line-haul applications are likely to shift some long-distance shipments from rail to trucks. Shippers will need to expand the capacity of their warehousing and distribution centers to handle the increased surges in goods when platoons arrive and depart. 220.127.116.11 Policy and Planning Challenges Providing sufficient space with direct freeway access for enlarged warehousing and distribution centers will be a challenge for urban areas. These expanded centers are likely to continue the trend of locating on the fringe of the urban area, where land prices allow larger parcels to be cost-effectively assembled. The shift in rail traffic to truck traffic might work contrary to the agencyâs environmental sustainability goals. Highway patrols and emergency responders will need to develop protocols and procedures for interacting with (pulling over) driverless trucks. State car-following regulations may need to be revised to allow truck platooning on rural and urban freeways. 18.104.22.168 Special Considerations for Rural Areas Rural areas will continue to see new warehouse and distribution centers locating on the fringes of major urban areas. With fewer human drivers and more fuel-efficient trucks, there could be a reduced need for rural truck stops.
Page: 167 3.3.2 Applications Improving Delivery (Last Mile) Shippers already employ new technologies and applications to track shipments, dispatch their vehicles, and route their vehicles. Short-distance aerial delivery services (UAVs) and smart locker systems are among the newer applications enabled by the new transportation technologies. These applications offer the potential to reduce last-mile delivery times and costs. Commercially available UAVs can carry small packages of under 15 pounds for distances of up to 1 mile. Military versions have greater ranges and payloads. Smart lockers enable delivery services to leave a package in a locker at a central, publicly accessible location. The intended recipient can open the locker with the appropriate cell phone app and shipper-provided code. 22.214.171.124 Deployment Status and Challenges The use of UAVs to deliver goods and smart lockers to securely hold packages until the recipient can pick them up are currently being pilot-tested by various shippers and carriers. The challenges relate primarily to public acceptance of the new technologies. 126.96.36.199 Specific Examples Drone package delivery systems are currently being tested in Germany, Iceland, Tanzania, and Rwanda. Deutsche Post/DHL, Alphabet, and Amazon are testing UAV delivery systems (Regev, 2018). 188.8.131.52 Potential Impacts on Travel Improved package delivery services will reduce the need to travel to the store to pick up a purchase. Aerial delivery will reduce the burden on highways. 184.108.40.206 Land Use and Streetscape Implications These new applications will require modifications to building designs to provide space for smart lockers and allow aerial access to the lockers or alternative delivery bins by UAVs. 220.127.116.11 Highway Infrastructure Implications. Aerial delivery will reduce the burden on highways. Streetscapes may need to be modified to provide places for UAVs to drop off deliveries.
Page: 168 18.104.22.168 Potential Implications for Logistics The cost savings of UAVs and the improved security of smart lockers will reduce delivery costs. Reduced delivery costs might encourage more e-shopping, thus increasing the number of packages delivered. 22.214.171.124 Policy and Planning Challenges Public and aerial access to smart lockers need to be resolved in agency regulations and building codes. 126.96.36.199 Special Considerations for Rural Areas The short flying range of urban UAVs might limit their initial use in rural areas. The use of smart lockers in a centrally located village in-lieu of package delivery to the doorstep might reduce shipping costs to rural areas.
Page: 169 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ABS acrylonitrile butadiene styrene ADS automated driving system ARM adaptive ramp metering ATCS adaptive traffic control system ATDM active transportation and demand management AVs fully self-driving autonomous vehicles. The term âautomated vehiclesâ covers a broader range of options, ranging from partial automation of some driver tasks up to and including full automation. We have restricted our use of the term AV to only fully self-driving vehicles, although many references in the literature may apply the abbreviation AV more broadly, to include vehicles with various levels of driver assistance features. BEV battery electric vehicle CACC cooperative adaptive cruise control CAV AV when combined with CV capabilities CNG compressed natural gas CV connected vehicle CVPD connected vehicle pilot deployment DOT department of transportation DelDOT Delaware DOT DMS dynamic message signs DSRC dedicated short-range communication devices EV electric vehicle FAA Federal Aviation Administration FCC Federal Communications Commission FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMVSS Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards GHz gigahertz GPS global positioning system HEV hybrid electric vehicle HFCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicle HOV high-occupancy vehicle HOT high-occupancy toll ICE internal combustion engine ICM Integrated Corridor Management IoT internet of things ITS intelligent transportation systems LNG liquefied natural gas MaaS mobility-as-a-service Mbps megabits per second MMITSS multimodal intelligent traffic signal system Mph miles per hour MPOs metropolitan planning organizations
Page: 170 NACTO National Association of City Transportation Officials PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle PLA polylactic acid RNG renewable natural gas ROW right of way RSU roadside units SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SUM shared use mobility TMC traffic management center TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TNC transportation network companies TSP transit signal priority UAVs unmanned aerial vehicles US United States USDOE US Department of Energy USDOT US Department of Transportation V2V vehicle-to-vehicle V2I vehicle-to-infrastructure VMT vehicle miles traveled
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