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Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation (2019)

Chapter: Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Characteristics of New Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25580.
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I-14 This chapter provides a quick overview of the transformational technologies likely to have significant effects on land use and transportation in the coming 10 to 30 years. First, individual vehicle and infrastructure technologies, such as electrification, are described. Then applications of combinations of these technologies, such as shared electric vehicles (EVs), are described. The chapter describes the characteristics of each technology and application and highlights their most significant impacts. It is a high-level summary of the more detailed information provided in the Desk Reference (Part II of this report). References are not noted in this chapter, but are shown in the Desk Reference, and have been included in the References and Bibliography section in the back matter of this report. 3.1 Vehicle and Infrastructure Technologies Vehicle and infrastructure technologies covered in this guide include: • Electric bicycles and scooters, • Alternative fuel vehicles, • EVs (autos, trucks, buses), • CVs, • AVs, • UAVs, and • Intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) (highway, street, and parking). 3.1.1 Electric Bicycles and Scooters The electrification of bicycles and scooters enables higher-speed travel and makes it easier for less physically fit people to go farther using these vehicles. Whereas a human-powered bicycle may travel at 10 to 15 mph, an electric bicycle provides power assistance to reach speeds of 20 to 30 mph for limited distances on level ground. Higher speeds may be feasible for some models. Lithium battery powered e-scooters can achieve highway speeds (35 mph) for limited distances. The shared e-bike and e-scooter market has been highly volatile during the last few years, with major deployments and pullbacks (including some bankruptcies) by various vendors in various countries of the world. It is hard to see at this point how the market will ultimately mature. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. By increasing the feasible range of travel and making active transportation vehicles accessible to more travelers, e-bikes and e-scooters might decrease walking for longer trips. They might replace some short transit and taxi trips. They might increase the use of transit for longer trips by providing first- and last-mile access to transit stops. C H A P T E R 3 Characteristics of New Technologies

Characteristics of New Technologies I-15 Increased transit use for longer-distance trips might reduce auto trips. The actual effects will ultimately depend on deployment and pricing. Shared-use applications of e-bikes and e-scooters will have greater impacts. Other Potential Impacts. See the section on “Applications That Facilitate Travel” for the impacts of shared e-bikes and e-scooters. 3.1.2 Automobile, Mass Transit, and Freight Technologies Potentially transformative automobile technologies include: • Alternative fuel vehicles, • EVs, • CVs, and • Fully autonomous (self-driving) vehicles (AVs). 3.1.2.1 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Alternative fuel vehicles may use a variety of gaseous or liquid fuels (besides gasoline or diesel) to power their internal combustion engines. The fuels might be various kinds of pro- cessed natural gas (essentially methane), such as compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) from traditional petroleum-based or renewable sources such as biomethane and biodiesel. Vehicles could be fueled by propane gas, butane gas, or various mixes of the two. The alternative fuel may mix ethanol with gasoline. Compared to gasoline, alternative fuels have various air quality and sustainability benefits. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. Given that the ranges and speeds of alternative- fueled vehicles are similar to those of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, this technology is not anticipated to significantly change travel demand in the short or long term. Until mass production lowers the purchase costs of vehicles that use alternative fuels, these costs will likely limit the impact of alternative fuel vehicles on travel. Implications for Land Use. Alternative fuel vehicles will need an increase in dedicated refueling stations to increase their market penetration. 3.1.2.2 EVs EVs use electric motors to provide their motive power. The electricity source may be an overhead wire, a third rail, a battery, solar cells, fuel cells, or an internal combustion engine. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. EVs are currently more expensive to purchase than conventionally powered vehicles. Their operating and maintenance costs can be signifi- cantly lower than comparable costs for conventional vehicles, if one does not consider the eventual cost of replacing the batteries when they will no longer hold a charge. Current government incentives (e.g., tax credits, grants, and subsidies), rebates from manufacturers, and the growing availability of free public recharging stations have already greatly reduced the perceived cost of owning and operating an EV in some areas. The ultimate impact of EVs on travel will depend on the extent

I-16 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation to which government programs, manufacturers, utilities, and public-private initiatives reduce the initial costs and perceived operating costs of EVs. Implications for Land Use. The direct land use impact of EVs will be the prolifera- tion of recharging stations in parking garages and lots and at curbsides to support EVs. The impacts of EVs on trip making and mode choice (e.g., use of EVs for transit fleets) will depend on the levels of direct and indirect government support and on the ability of technology/mass production improvements to reduce the cost of owning and operating an EV to match—or improve on—the cost of gasoline/diesel-powered vehicles. If EV costs eventu- ally become equivalent to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, theoretically EVs would not impact trip making and mode choice; but if EVs begin to represent a savings in relation to gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles, the impact will rise. Policy and Planning Challenges. EVs can significantly reduce air pollutant emissions from vehicles, but significant upgrades to the electrical generation, distribution, and storage system will be needed to accommodate a significant increase in EVs in the vehicle fleet. More charging stations are needed. Another concern has been vehicle fires that occur when the batteries are damaged. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. The cost of electricity associated with spikes in demand from fast-charging EV charging stations in more remote areas poses challenges along rural highways. Adding fast-charging stations to rural rest areas along interstates is presently infeasible due to their impacts on spikes in demand and associated electricity rates. 3.1.2.3 CVs CVs have the ability to “talk” with each other (V2V commu- nications) and with roadside infrastructure (V2I). Vehicles might exchange basic information like location, speed, and status, or more sophisticated information like destination, payload, and on-time status. From the roadside infrastruc- ture technology, vehicles might receive information about downstream conditions and speed recommendations. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. CVs are expected to reduce the frequency of crashes and unexpected delays due to crashes. The improved travel-time reliability may modestly increase vehicle travel (both trips and distance) at the expense of other modes of travel. Fewer crashes will also improve on-time performance for transit vehicles in the street. Transit agencies may be able to meet their performance goals with fewer vehicles in reserve during peak periods. The benefits of CVs can be greatly magnified when CV capabilities are combined with self-driving capabilities to create AVs. Policy and Planning Challenges. The primary policy and planning challenge is whether to continue to invest in the proven dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) technol- ogy or to wait on the commercial development of 5G wireless technology. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. The required heavy initial investment in DSRC roadside units or 5G towers (and connecting fiber) will likely delay deployment of CVs in rural areas unless government subsidies or regulations are employed to spur deploy- ment there.

Characteristics of New Technologies I-17 3.1.2.4 Fully Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicles The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines five levels of automation ranging from limited driver assis- tance, like cruise control, at Level 1, to fully autonomous (self-driving) AVs at Level 5. This report focuses on the most transformational level of automation, the fully self-driving AV. Fully autonomous AVs are capable of performing all driving tasks under all conditions within their defined operational design domain (e.g., the parking lot, freeway, city street). The literature has yet to coalesce on whether self-driving vehicles should be called “autonomous” or “automated.” The authors of this report have chosen to link the terms “autonomous/automated” when talking of self-driving vehicles except in discussions for which the specific reference cited uses only a single term. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. If AV developers can reduce their production and operating costs to a level significantly below those of conventional human-driven taxi services (roughly $3 per mile), there may be substantial increases in use of AVs as essentially chauffeured vehicles by the public. Implications for Land Use. The availability of low-cost chauffeured service could significantly affect the need for and the location of parking facilities in an urban area. If low-cost AVs can quickly appear anywhere in the urban area on demand, travelers need not park within a short walking distance of their destination. If travelers share their AV with others, they need not park a personal vehicle at all; rather, travelers can be dropped off and picked up curbside. The AV can serve others while the traveler conducts his or her business. A different AV can then be summoned to pick up the traveler when ready. The key to this scenario is low cost and short wait times. Increased use of curbs for traveler pick ups and drop offs will place a premium on incor- porating safe and convenient pick up and drop off areas in development site plans and streetscape. Implications for Highway/Roadway Infrastructure. Highway design standards may need to be reevaluated for AVs. Closely following vehicles may affect pavement and bridge structure design loads. Adherence to current design standards may be more critical for AVs, which currently are less able to adapt to unique situations than human drivers. By enabling closer car following, AVs might increase the capacity of existing highways once they achieve minimum market penetration. Potential Environmental Impacts. AV technology may enable agencies to mandate eco- driving algorithms to reduce emissions. At the same time, increased vehicle travel due to deadheading back home or circulating while waiting for a pick up could greatly increase envi- ronmental impacts. Implications for Logistics. AV freight trucks have the potential to reduce truck operating costs by up to 50 percent. Most of that savings would come from eliminated driver wages and benefits. Such cost savings would draw longer-haul freight from alternative modes like rail.

I-18 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation Policy and Planning Challenges. The policy and planning challenges related to AV technol- ogy lie primarily in safety regulation at the federal and state levels. At the local level, the shift in demand from off-street parking to curbside drop off will require rethinking local on-site parking requirements and site plan designs for pick ups and drop offs. Over the long term, conversion of underutilized parking lots and garages to other uses will be a consideration. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. Many roadway operating conditions unique to rural areas have yet to be the focus of AV development. Potential conflicts with wildlife in rural areas may be a concern. 3.1.3 UAVs and Droids UAVs (also called drones) and ground-based droids are designed to deliver lightweight, small-size freight over short distances (e.g., the last mile or last 50 feet). Gasoline-powered UAVs and droids may be used for longer distances and heavier loads, but the technology also can be battery powered. They are often remote-controlled by a pilot, but can also be auto- mated, self-piloted. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. Aerial deliveries may reduce urban street conges- tion by reducing the number of trucks, the need for curbside truck loading zones, and the likelihood of double parking for deliveries when a loading zone is not available. When com- bined with internet applications that facilitate e-commerce, short-distance package delivery systems can reduce some personal travel, replacing it with freight delivery. Implications for Land Use. UAVs may affect location choices for freight distribution centers. Building designs may be altered to provide drone ports and UAV-accessible smart lockers for temporarily storing delivered goods on site until the consignee can pick them up. Implications for Logistics. UAVs are likely to affect the choice of mode (ground or air) for last-mile delivery of small-size, low-weight goods. Distribution center locations may be affected. Policy and Planning Challenges. Privacy is one of the largest concerns related to the use of drones. Although the FAA currently states that drones cannot fly over crowds of people, it leaves privacy regulations to state and local regulation (National League of Cities 2016). Ensuring the safety and security of people in public spaces is another key concern, as drones or droids may be targets of hacking and cyberattacks. Finally, the propeller noise associated with current UAVs may be a policy and planning challenge in relation to residential areas and quiet zones around hospitals and schools 3.1.4 Highway System Technologies Innovative intelligent highway system infrastructure technologies are located on roads and streets, at transit stations/stops, and in traffic management centers (TMCs). These technologies take advantage of the greater real-time travel activity data available from traveler devices and smarter devices in the field to enable better traffic management, increasing the transportation infrastructure’s efficiency and productivity. Emerging highway system technologies can be divided between field sensors, control devices, and informational devices. • Field Sensors. Conventional field detection technologies include loop detectors and video cameras/detectors. They count all vehicles that pass through their detection field, classify them (e.g., truck, car, and so forth), and estimate spot speeds.

Characteristics of New Technologies I-19 Emerging detection technologies track wireless devices that people carry on their person or in their vehicle as they move through the system. These technologies include cell phone location tracking (location-based services) and Bluetooth device tracking sensors. • Control Devices. Conventional devices for controlling vehicular traffic include traffic sig- nals, stop signs, and various signs to control turns, usage (weight limits), and speeds. Emerging technologies replace traditional static controls with dynamic, traffic- and weather-responsive controls using advanced control logic and dynamic message signs. Traffic-adaptive signal controllers are one example. • Informational Devices. Static signs give drivers locational and directional information. Emerging technologies replace static informational signs with dynamic, remote-controlled signs that can convey a wealth of information to drivers. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. When combined with management strategies and applications to reduce travel time, delay, and cost, advanced highway technologies would tend to shift travel demand from less technologically advanced modes to the more technologically advanced mode. Implications for Land Use. New highway technologies will tend to lower travel costs where they are installed. Lower travel costs tend to favor longer-distance travel and dispersed land uses within the urban area. 3.1.5 Parking System Technologies Potentially transformational parking system technologies are similar to those for highway systems: sensors to monitor parking occupancy, control devices that set and collect parking fees, and informational devices that make travelers aware of parking availability, location, and pricing. Emerging informational technologies for on-street parking, off-street parking lots, and garages can guide vehicles to open parking spaces. These parking messages also may be posted on roadside variable message signs or directly transmitted to a driver’s cell phone or vehicle dashboard. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. By making it easier to park one’s personal vehicle, this technology will tend to draw travelers to that mode and away from other modes of travel. The new parking system technologies may also increase total travel to the area where they are deployed. Using smart technologies to change pricing of available parking on a real-time basis may reduce parking demand at key hot spots. Implications for Land Use. By enabling agencies and the public to make better use of available parking inventory, these new technologies might enable agencies to dedicate less street space and less land to parking vehicles. They might enable better utilization of remote lots. Greater deployment of advanced parking system technologies might support greater develop- ment density. They might draw some development from fringe locations back to the urban core. These new technologies also might enable agencies to modestly reduce off-street parking requirements for new development by facilitating shared use of parking spaces among the residents and users of separate adjacent or nearby buildings. 3.2 Multiple Technology Applications Applications take new transportation technologies, combine them, and put them to work to solve transportation problems.

I-20 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation 3.2.1 Personal Mobility and Land Use Applications Transformational personal mobility and land use applications of new technologies generally (1) replace the need to travel, (2) facilitate travel (by decreasing travel costs or increasing aware- ness of available travel options), and (3) introduce new options for using underutilized land uses. 3.2.1.1 Applications That Replace the Need to Travel Applications that replace the need for personal travel operate over the internet. The IoT, e-commerce, and 3-D printing are examples of types of internet applications that replace the need to travel. • The IoT. Essentially, the IoT consists of a variety of technology and software applications that connect the computing devices now embedded in everyday objects (such as light switches, cameras, and thermostats) to the internet. The IoT enables remote monitoring and operation of household and business systems, reducing or replacing the need to travel to the site. • E-Commerce. A variety of internet-based applications enable and facilitate the commer- cial transactions and activities that constitute e-commerce. These applications include virtual networks, web conferencing, and other tools that enable telecommuting/telework, remote education, remote medical consultation, web-based entertainment, and web shopping. These applications reduce the need for in-person travel, but they do not eliminate the need for physical movement of goods. Consequently, some of the applications involved in e-commerce will likely increase demands on the national logistics system (see Exhibit I-8). • 3-D Printing. A variety of applications of enhanced printing technologies are available that enable a person or organization to operate a personalized, limited-quantity manufacturing facility. Still, 3-D printing does not quite eliminate the need for all travel and freight move- ment. The 3-D printer must still be fed the raw material (currently two varieties of plastic) from which the final product is made. Each mini-manufacturing site will still need to accom- modate plastic deliveries and waste hauling. Exhibit I-8. Example e-commerce applications.

Characteristics of New Technologies I-21 Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. Applications that reduce the need to travel can sig- nificantly reduce travel demand as their market penetration and their capabilities increase. As noted in this section, however, current applications do not completely replace the need to travel or move goods: 3-D printers still need to be supplied with raw materials and goods bought online still need to be delivered. Although some healthcare services can be accessed and accomplished remotely, other services (such as some examinations and nearly all treat- ments) still require a visit to the hospital or the doctor’s office. Some work tasks require in-person (face-to-face) interactions and some jobs require a physical presence at the work site. Implications for Land Use. The ability to avoid travel for many activities will reduce the importance of proximity to work and other services as a factor in housing location choice. This impact may increase pressure for rural and urban fringe development. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. High-speed internet service is essential for successful e-commerce and telework. Rural areas without high-speed internet service will be disadvantaged compared to other areas. 3.2.1.2 Applications That Facilitate Travel Applications that facilitate travel generally make the traveler more aware of the available transportation service options and their costs. They enable the traveler to make more effective use of available transportation services and infrastructure. These applications fall into two broad categories: mobility-as-a-service (MaaS), and wayfinding or navigation. • MaaS Applications. These applications assist travelers in hiring the use of a vehicle with or without a driver. MaaS applications come in many flavors. They vehicles involved might be motorized or non-motorized, and might be cars, vans, trucks, bicycles, or scooters. A hired driver might be provided with the vehicle or the traveler may take charge of driving. Driverless AVs also may be provided. MaaS applications include ride-hailing applications for exclusive or shared use, automobile rental applications, and small vehicle rental applications. Ride-hailing applications for exclusive use typically involve a hired vehicle such as an automobile, a van, or a limousine with driver. The hired vehicle might be a self-driving AV. The passenger hires the vehicle (and driver, if included) for exclusive use by the passenger for the duration of the trip. Ride-hailing applications for shared use typically involve similar vehicles (and drivers, if included), but the passenger may share the hired vehicle and driver with other non-related passengers, either for a portion of the trip or for the entire trip. Automobile rental applications assist travelers in choosing a vehicle rental and/or sharing service. Typically, the traveler uses the application to rent a vehicle (automobile, van, or truck) without a driver for a specified time. Small vehicle rental applications enable the traveler to rent a Segway, a bicycle, an e-bike, a scooter, an e-scooter or a similar low- capacity (typically single-person), low-speed (under 35 mph) vehicle. • Wayfinding (Navigational) Applications. These internet-based applications do not provide a vehicle. They make travelers aware of traffic conditions and when the next transit vehicle will arrive. Wayfinding applications provide routing services and expected arrival times, locate nearby businesses of interest to the traveler, and alert travelers to incidents and hazards. These traveler information services can be delivered to the traveler over personal communication devices anywhere with an internet connection. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. MaaS and wayfinding applications make traveling easier, thereby facilitating increased travel. Policy and Planning Challenges. The policy challenge is regulating the applications to ensure that the agency’s public welfare, equity, and environmental goals are met. Storage of

I-22 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation shared vehicles in the public ROW, mixing light vehicles (e.g., bicycles, scooters) with heavy vehicles and pedestrians, and navigational applications that send traffic through residential areas are significant concerns. 3.2.1.3 Applications That Increase Land Use Flexibility Transformational internet applications that increase land use efficiency and flexibility seek to connect people who own underutilized space with others desiring to use that space (sometimes in new ways) for a limited period. The applications might involve peer-to- peer or hosted (curated) sharing of underutilized spaces. For example, a provider of remote work space may contract with a restaurant (or other venue) to use space the restaurant does not typically use during daytime hours. Within the parameters set by the contract, the remote work space provider may then rent the space out by the hour or by the day. Similarly, homeowners and apartment owners may rent out the tempo- rary use of their residences (e.g., by the night, by the weekend, or for longer periods). Owners of private residential parking spaces may seek to rent out their parking space while they are at work. Some urban developers are looking into new technology applications to reduce construc- tion costs and increase the attractiveness of buildings to new tenants. Factors influencing their interest include: • Modular housing can be built faster and cheaper than traditional construction; • Robotic parking systems can decrease the land space that must be devoted to parking; • Signal-boosting devices inside new buildings can allow cell phone reception within high-rise towers; and • New technologies also can enable luxury amenities like infrared saunas. Other urban land developers are investigating technologies and applications that allow them to include agricultural uses such as small farms within residential developments. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. By intensifying existing land uses, these land use sharing applications will increase the traffic impacts of those uses. Implications for Land Use. These land use sharing applications will support higher utilization of existing built spaces. They may reduce demand for traditional work spaces and parking. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. Monitoring and enforcing land use and zoning regulations is particularly challenging in rural areas, where structures may be far removed from the public ROW. 3.2.2 Government Services Applications Governments provide various public benefits to their citizens, such as emergency services (police, fire, medical), social services, and public utilities (transportation, water, electricity, waste management). Potentially transformational government services applications enable governments to provide superior services less expensively and more time-efficiently. The discussion in this section has been split between applications that improve delivery of general government services and those that improve specific transportation and parking services. 3.2.2.1 Applications That Improve General Government Services Smart city and smart community initiatives develop and integrate data repository and communications applications for better monitoring of real-time needs and improved

Characteristics of New Technologies I-23 management of the delivery of government services. Smart city/community applications often are built on a central integrated data exchange (IDE) to which all agency divisions contribute data and from which they draw information. Members of the public also can contribute to the IDE through requests for services and notification of events and can draw from it to improve their utilization of government services. 3.2.2.2 Applications That Improve the Delivery of Transportation Services Applications for improving highway and transit travel generally employ a combination of vehicle communications devices and smarter field devices (such as traffic signals and smart transit stops). These applications might improve highway facility and transit fleet management. Like ITSs, active transportation and demand management (ATDM) systems and integrated corridor management (ICM) involve highway management strategies that take advantage of the functionalities made possible by new technologies. Transit agencies employ various management strategies to take advantage of the superior information systems provided by new technologies. For example, agencies might use the tech- nologies to better monitor the status of their vehicle fleet or better inform passengers of the arrival time of the next bus. Agencies also might reach out to MaaS providers to identify partner- ship opportunities that improve the rider experience. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. New traffic and transit management strategies for employing CVs will likely reduce congestion and delays and improve transit service reli- ability. Reduced congestion and improved reliability should attract more drivers and transit passengers to corridors with smart infrastructure. Implications for Land Use. Lower travel times and greater reliability will tend to enhance the spread of urban development. 3.2.2.3 Applications That Improve the Delivery of Parking Services Applications that take advantage of improved field sensors can improve curbside parking and off-street parking management. These applications may dynamically set parking rates to maximize utilization or provide real-time information to travelers via cell phones or dynamic message signs to minimize time wasted searching for an available parking space. By identifying and assigning open curb space and directing drivers to the appropriate curb- side zone, the application improves the safe management of pedestrians, bicyclists, transit passengers, and taxi passengers on the sidewalks and along the curbside. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. By increasing the certainty of finding a parking space or rental vehicle, these applications make driving and renting a vehicle more convenient. The added convenience will, in turn, tend to encourage greater use of the modes for which the applications have been developed. Implications for Land Use. Parking applications enable parking providers to locate their facilities in less visible areas. Users (and providers) count on the application to guide users to the facility. The parking application may enable agencies to replace highly visible curbside parking with less visible off-street parking. 3.2.3 Logistics Applications Logistics applications employ the greater information and flexibility new transportation technologies provide to reduce delivery times and the cost of moving goods.

I-24 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation Fuel and labor costs are significant considerations for shippers. Fuel accounts for about 20 percent of shipping cost. Labor (the driver) accounts for another 45 percent (Kawamura 2018). Logistics applications and their effects vary according to the type of truck service: long- distance line hauls (usually trips greater than 50 miles between urban areas) or last-mile delivery services to residences and businesses. 3.2.3.1 Applications That Improve Line Hauls Line-haul trucking services generally involve interurban trips ranging from 50 miles to 700 miles. Within this range, trucks are the predominant mode for freight transport. At longer distances, trucks compete with railroad and air cargo services. Applications of new technologies to line-haul trucking include truck platoon- ing to save on fuel costs and self-driving trucks to save on labor costs. • Truck Platooning. Currently being researched, this application of AV technology enables two AV trucks to closely follow a human-driven lead truck. Depending on the spacing between vehicles, fuel savings at freeway speeds for a three-truck platoon range from 5 percent to 10 percent, as averaged over all three trucks (National Renewable Energy Lab 2019). The resulting fuel cost savings would be about 1 percent to 2 percent of per-mile truck operating costs. Some researchers are concerned about the potential for overheating of engines and tires in the trailing vehicles when platooning is deployed for long distances. The concentrated loading on highway bridges is another concern. • Self-Driving Trucks. This application of AV technology offers the potential to reduce labor costs to zero for line-haul services. The estimated 45 percent in labor cost savings would be traded off against the increased purchase and maintenance costs for the trucks. Deployment Status, Trends, and Challenges. Truck platooning and self-driving trucks are still in the research and development phase. The private sector is actively engaged in pursuing this research. These applications have been tested on freeways in Arizona with a human monitor/ driver present. The best combination of detectors, control software, and human monitoring/ driving for freeway operations is still under development. Initial deployments will likely occur on rural freeways, where the driving challenges are less complex than on congested urban freeways. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. The impacts of these line-haul truck shipping appli- cations on personal travel are likely to be minor. Implications for Land Use. Lower truck shipping costs will require larger-capacity ware- houses and distribution centers to handle the increased volume of goods moving by truck. Reduced rail travel may open up some railyards to redevelopment. Implications for Highway/Roadway Infrastructure. Truck platoons may increase the dif- ficulty for autos that are trying to change lanes and enter or exit freeways. The platoons may increase highway capacity by 10 percent if AV trucks reach 50 percent of the truck fleet in the lanes where truck platoons are concentrated (Kuhn, Lukuc, Poorsartep, and Wagner 2017). Increased truck movements on freeways may reduce freeway capacities, particularly in moun- tainous areas with long grades. Load limits on highway bridges will need to be reconsidered in light of truck platoon point loads. Some retrofitting or reconstruction of highway bridges may be required. Implications for Logistics. The potential reductions in truck shipping costs offered by line-haul applications are likely to shift some long-distance shipments from rail to trucks.

Characteristics of New Technologies I-25 Shippers will need to expand the capacity of their warehousing and distribution centers to handle the increased surges in goods when platoons arrive and depart. Policy and Planning Challenges. Providing sufficient space with direct freeway access for enlarged warehousing and distribution centers will be a challenge in urban areas. These expanded centers are likely to continue the trend of locating on the fringe of the urban area where land prices allow larger parcels to be cost-effectively assembled. Higher truck volumes with closer following distances may warrant consideration of dedicated truck-only lanes or freight highways. Highway patrols and emergency responders will need to develop protocols and procedures for interacting with (pulling over) fully autonomous trucks. On rural and urban freeways, state car following regulations also may need to be revised to allow truck platooning to interface safely with automobile traffic. The shift from rail traffic to truck traffic may work contrary to the agency’s environmental sustainability goals. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. New warehouse and distribution centers will continue to locate on the rural fringes of major urban areas. At the same time, fewer human drivers and more fuel-efficient trucks may reduce the need for rural truck stops. 3.2.3.2 Applications That Improve Deliveries (Last-Mile Services) Shippers already employ new technologies and applications to track shipments and to dispatch and route their vehicles. Short-distance delivery using UAVs and smart locker systems are among the applica- tions enabled by new transportation technologies. These applications offer the potential to reduce last-mile delivery times and costs. Currently, commercially available UAVs can carry small packages of under 15 pounds for distances of up to a mile. More advanced commercial UAVs and military versions have greater ranges and payloads. Smart lockers enable delivery services to leave a package in a locker at a central, publicly accessible location. The intended recipient can open the locker with the appropriate cell phone app and shipper-provided code. Deployment Status, Trends, and Challenges. Various shippers and businesses have begun pilot testing the use of UAVs to deliver goods and/or the use of smart lockers to securely hold pack- ages until the recipient can pick them up. The primary challenge to greater implementation of new technologies for last-mile delivery is obtaining public acceptance of the new technologies. Potential Impacts on Personal Travel. By making it easier for customers to retrieve goods quickly and at flexible times, smart lockers have the potential to reduce peak-time congestion and relieve demand for parking at stores or distribution centers. When smart lockers are com- bined with UAVs, improved package delivery services also can reduce the need for customers to travel to the store to pick up a purchase. Aerial deliveries will reduce the burden of vehicular deliveries on congested local or urban streets. Implications for Land Use. These new applications will require modifications to building designs to provide space for and access to smart lockers, particularly aerial access to the lockers or alternative delivery bins by UAVs. Implications for Highway/Roadway Infrastructure. Aerial delivery can potentially reduce the burden on roadways used for last-mile deliveries. Streetscapes may need to be modified to provide places for UAVs to drop off deliveries.

I-26 Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation Implications for Logistics. The potential cost savings of using UAVs and the improved security of smart lockers will reduce delivery costs. Reduced delivery costs may encourage more e-shopping, increasing the number of packages delivered. Locker security may be an issue. Policy and Planning Challenges. Public and aerial access to smart lockers needs to be resolved in agency regulations and building codes. ADA accessibility also may be a concern for certain delivery methods. Special Considerations for Rural Areas. Rural areas have been testing grounds for initial implementation of some UAV package delivery systems. UAV deliveries to some rural and inac- cessible areas may require UAVs with longer delivery ranges and higher operating altitudes than are needed in urban or suburban areas. In rural towns, placement of smart lockers in a centrally located village in lieu of doorstep package delivery for remote ranches, farms, or homes may facilitate deliveries while containing shipping costs.

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Examples of transformational technologies—many are discussed in technical and popular media—include wireless telecommunications, shared vehicles, connected vehicles, fully autonomous vehicles, alternative-fuel vehicles, smart cities and communities, big data analytics, internet-of-things, as well as UAVs or drones, 3-D printing, and more.

Public agencies face significant challenges continuing to perform their governmental functions in the face of the private sector’s prodigious output of these new technologies. Agencies need to rethink how they develop their policies and plans—and they need to obtain new expertise.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Research Report 924: Foreseeing the Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Use and Transportation reviews the characteristics of new transportation-related technologies and their applications in the transportation sector and explores a wide variety of potential impacts on areas such as travel and land use and planning projects.

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