National Academies Press: OpenBook

Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines (2020)

Chapter: Front Matter

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25630.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract NNH11CD57B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25630 Cover design by Tim Warchocki Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25630. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR GAS TURBINES DAVID E. CROW, NAE,1 University of Connecticut, Co-Chair TRESA M. POLLOCK, NAE, University of California, Santa Barbara, Co-Chair SEAN BRADSHAW, Pratt and Whitney Aircraft Engines MICHAEL J. FOUST, GE Aviation BRIAN GRAHAM, GE Aviation JOHN GÜLEN, Bechtel Infrastructure & Power ALLISTER JAMES, Siemens Energy, Inc. TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology MICHAEL J. MALONEY, NAE, Pratt and Whitney Aircraft Engines (retired) PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University KAREN A. THOLE, Pennsylvania State University FREDERIC VILLENEUVE, Siemens Energy, Inc. CHARLES H. WARD, Air Force Research Laboratory BERNHARD WINKELMANN, Solar Turbines, Inc. Staff ALAN ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Study Director COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board ANESIA WILKS, Senior Program Assistant GAYBRIELLE HOLBERT, Program Assistant 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder STEVEN J. BATTEL, NAE, Battel Engineering MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE, Ohio State University EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC EDWARD F. CRAWLEY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MICHAEL P. DELANEY, Boeing Commercial Airplanes KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology ILAN KROO, NAE, Stanford University ANDREW R. LACHER, MITRE Corporation NICHOLAS D. LAPPOS, Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute VALERIE MANNING, Airbus RICHARD MCKINNEY, RWMckinney, LLC PAMELA A. MELROY, Melroy & Hollett Technology Partners, LLC PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University JOHN M. OLSON, Polaris Industries ELLEN M. PAWLIKOWSKI, NAS, Independent Consultant ROBIE I. SAMANTA ROY, Lockheed Martin Corporation WANDA A. SIGUR, NAE, Independent Consultant ALAN M. TITLE, NAS/NAE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center DAVID M. VAN WIE, NAE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory SHERRIE L. ZACHARIUS, Aerospace Corporation Staff COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer ANDREA REBHOLZ, Program Associate RADAKA LIGHTFOOT, Financial Associate 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Preface The Department of Energy requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convene an ad hoc committee to identify high-priority opportunities for improving and creating advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines to enhance their performance (particularly with respect to efficiency and life-cycle cost). The committee was further tasked with determining the state of development that could be achieved by 2030. The Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Academies’ Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences assembled a committee to carry out the assigned statement of task (see Appendix A). The committee members (see Appendix C) met four times during 2018 and 2019, three times at the National Academies’ facilities in Washington, D.C., and once at the National Academies’ facility in Irvine, California. As specified in the statement of task, the committee identified high-priority goals as well as research areas and topics that would most effectively achieve those goals. A summary of each of the research goals, areas, and topics appears in Appendix B. David E. “Ed” Crow, Co-Chair Tresa M. Pollock, Co-Chair Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Eric H. Ducharme, NAE,1 General Electric Aviation, Srinath V. Ekkad, North Carolina State University, Nagi Gebraeel, Georgia Institute of Technology, John W. Hutchinson, NAS2/NAE, Harvard University, Yiguang Jurczyk, Princeton University, Marybeth McBain, Kinder Morgan, Inc., Nitin P. Padture, Brown University, Taryn Riley, Siemens Energy, Inc., Jayant Sabnis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Jon C. Schaeffer, NAE, GE Power & Water. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dennis Bushnell, NAE, NASA Langley Research Center. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

Contents SUMMARY 1 1 BACKGROUND 7 Introduction, 7 Global Leadership, 14 Global Market Trends, 16 Global Technology Trends, 18 Prioritization Process, 22 2 AGGRESSIVE GOALS FOR GAS TURBINE DEVELOPMENT 30 Power Generation, 30 Aviation, 34 Oil and Gas Industry, 38 Goals: Interrelationships and Recommendation, 42 3 HIGH-PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS AND TOPICS 45 Research Area 1: Combustion, 46 Research Area 2: Structural Materials and Coatings, 52 Research Area 3: Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines, 64 Research Area 4: Thermal Management, 72 Research Area 5: High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments, 81 Research Area 6: Unconventional Thermodynamic Cycles, 88 Research Area 7: System Integration, 94 Research Area 8: Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance, 99 Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure, 105 Research Area 10: Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications, 109 Research Areas: Interrelationships and Recommendation, 115 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi

xii CONTENTS 4 ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 118 State of Development Achievable by 2030, 118 Interrelationships Among Goals, Research Areas, and Research Topics, 123 Research Consortia, 126 Development Process, 127 Future Vision, 128 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 131 B Compendium of High-Priority Goals, Research Areas, Research Topics, and Their Summary Statements 132 C Committee Member Biographical Information 138 D Acronyms 144 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

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Leadership in gas turbine technologies is of continuing importance as the value of gas turbine production is projected to grow substantially by 2030 and beyond. Power generation, aviation, and the oil and gas industries rely on advanced technologies for gas turbines. Market trends including world demographics, energy security and resilience, decarbonization, and customer profiles are rapidly changing and influencing the future of these industries and gas turbine technologies. Technology trends that define the technological environment in which gas turbine research and development will take place are also changing - including inexpensive, large scale computational capabilities, highly autonomous systems, additive manufacturing, and cybersecurity. It is important to evaluate how these changes influence the gas turbine industry and how to manage these changes moving forward.

Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines identifies high-priority opportunities for improving and creating advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines to enhance their performance. The goals of this report are to assess the 2030 gas turbine global landscape via analysis of global leadership, market trends, and technology trends that impact gas turbine applications, develop a prioritization process, define high-priority research goals, identify high-priority research areas and topics to achieve the specified goals, and direct future research. Findings and recommendations from this report are important in guiding research within the gas turbine industry and advancing electrical power generation, commercial and military aviation, and oil and gas production.

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