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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25642.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

ACRP Web-Only Document 38: Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile RSG, Inc. White River Junction, VT with Matthew Coogan Ithaca, NY Mark Hansen University of California Berkeley, CA Richard Marchi Washington, DC Nancy McGuckin South Pasadena, CA Megan Ryerson University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA Mike Welch Bridgewater State University Bridgewater, MA Technical Appendix to Contractor’s Final Report for ACRP Project 03-40 Submitted February 2019 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). It was conducted through the Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I  V E  R E S E A R  C H  P R O G R A M S  CRP STAFF FOR ACRP Web-Only Document 38 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Marci A. Greenberger, Manager, Airport Cooperative Research Programs Lawrence D. Goldstein, Senior Program Officer Anthony P. Avery, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Ellen M. Chafee, Senior Editor Kathleen Mion, Senior Editorial Assistant ACRP PROJECT 03-40 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Lois Kramer, KRAMER Aerotek, Inc., Boulder, CO (Chair) John F. Betak, Collaborative Solutions, LLC, Albuquerque, NM Frederick R. Busch, Denver, CO Paula Jordan-Foster, Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, Carrollton, TX Stephanie A. Morgan, Lewiston-Nez Perce County Regional Airport (LWS), Lewiston, ID Scott A. Peterson, Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, Stoneham, MA Jia Yan, Washington State University, Pullman, WA Douglas R. Anderson, FAA Liaison Caroline Bonynge, American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE) Liaison Liying Gu, Airports Council International –North America Liaison

v TECHNICAL APPENDIX TO AIR DEMAND IN A DYNAMIC COMPETITIVE CONTEXT WITH THE AUTOMOBILE CONTENTS CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION TO THE TECHNICAL APPENDIX: UNDERSTANDING LONG- DISTANCE TRAVEL MARKETS ..................................................................................................... 1 1(a) Introduction and Structure of this Technical Appendix ................................................................... 1 1(b) Demographics and the Long-Distance Trip .................................................................................... 1 Reasons for Long-Distance Trips, from the Base Year ATS Survey, 1995 ..................................... 2 Long-Distance Trip-Makers .............................................................................................................. 3 The Role of Age in Long-Distance Trip-Making ............................................................................... 4 The Role of Income in Long-Distance Trip-Making ......................................................................... 4 The Concept of the Top 200 Corridors ............................................................................................ 5 Costs Experienced for Each Mode .................................................................................................. 6 1(c) Understanding Market Trends for Air Travel ................................................................................... 7 Historical Trends in Enplanement .................................................................................................... 7 Present and Future Enplanements .................................................................................................. 9 The “Fact” Reports from the FAA ................................................................................................... 11 1(d) Understanding Market Trends for the Automobile ........................................................................ 13 Historical Trends in VMT per Capita Between 1995 and 2015 ...................................................... 13 Relationship to Economic Growth .................................................................................................. 13 Air and Automobile Travel Together .............................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER 2. UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF DISTANCE IN CHOICE OF MODE ............................ 16 2(a) Understanding the Relationship Between Distance and Mode ..................................................... 16 Looking at Distance ........................................................................................................................ 16 Mode Share, by Distance—American Travel Survey Data from 1995 .......................................... 17 The Impact of Income on Mode Share, by Trip Distance .............................................................. 18 The Impact of Party Size and Income on Mode Share, by Distance ............................................. 19 The Impact of Trip Purpose on Mode Share, by Distance ............................................................. 20 Variation in Mode Share, by Region and Trip Purpose ................................................................. 21 2(b) Historical Trends in Mode Share, by Distance .............................................................................. 23 Mode, by Distance (1995 vs. 2002) ............................................................................................... 23 Estimated Mode, by Distance (1995 vs. 2012) .............................................................................. 24 CHAPTER 3. DEFINING CORRIDORS WHERE MODES COMPETE ...................................................... 26

vi 3(a) Markets Under 800 Miles in Distance ........................................................................................... 26 Ranked by Mode Share to Air ........................................................................................................ 28 Ranked by Number of Annual Trips by All Modes ......................................................................... 29 Air Mode Share, by Distance—Chart Format ................................................................................ 29 3(b) Examples of the Scale of Trip-Making Over 800 Miles ................................................................. 29 CHAPTER 4. THE LOCATION OF AND FACTORS FOR COMPETITION AMONG AIRPORTS ............ 31 4(a) Variation in Ground Access Distances to American Airports ........................................................ 31 A New Source of Interregional Travel Data ................................................................................... 31 Distance to Airport, Trip Length Distribution .................................................................................. 31 4(b) Airports Categorized by Potential Competition with Other Airports .............................................. 32 Summary of National Airport Locations ......................................................................................... 32 Airport Location/Competition Category, by State ........................................................................... 33 4(c) Airport Selection in and Between Multi-Airport Regions ............................................................... 37 Role of Dominant Airports in Trips from New England .................................................................. 37 CHAPTER 5. FORECASTS OF THE FUTURE .......................................................................................... 39 5(a) Early Examples of the Use of Scenario Analysis and Other Forecasting ..................................... 39 Scenario Analysis Published in FHWA’s Foundational Knowledge Implementation Report ......... 39 5(b) The Federal Railroad Administration’s Northeast Corridor Future Project ................................... 40 CHAPTER 6. DATA COLLECTION, SAMPLING PLAN, AND DESCRIPTION OF 2017 SURVEY ......... 41 6(a) Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 41 6(b) Survey Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 41 Sampling Plan ................................................................................................................................ 41 Questionnaire ................................................................................................................................. 42 Survey Administration .................................................................................................................... 46 6(c) Final Dataset ................................................................................................................................. 47 Demographics ................................................................................................................................ 47 CHAPTER 7. LATENT CLASS CLUSTER ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 49 7(a) Introduction and Structure ............................................................................................................. 49 7(b) Understanding Latent Class Cluster Analysis ............................................................................... 49 Latent Class Predictive Variables .................................................................................................. 50 7(c) Segment Overview ........................................................................................................................ 52 7(d) Latent Class Cluster Characteristics Matrix .................................................................................. 54

vii 7(e) Select Attitudes by Latent Class Cluster ....................................................................................... 56 7(f) Conclusions and Implications ......................................................................................................... 57 Ardent Plane Adherents and Rational Air Travelers ...................................................................... 58 Ambivalent Adapters ...................................................................................................................... 58 Rational Auto Travelers.................................................................................................................. 59 Ardent Auto Adherents ................................................................................................................... 59 CHAPTER 8. TRAVEL BEHAVIORS AND ATTITUDES TOWARD THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP: RESULTS OF THE ACRP 2017 SURVEY ..................................................................................... 60 8(a) Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 60 Highlights ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Structure ......................................................................................................................................... 61 8(b) The Choice Between the Car and the Plane for the Long-Distance Trip (2017) .......................... 62 The Costs of the Long-Distance Trip ............................................................................................. 62 The Importance of Trip Distance in Interaction with Other Factors ............................................... 67 Who is Traveling by Car over 1,700 Miles? ................................................................................... 74 Who is Taking a Multi-Destination Trip? ........................................................................................ 74 8(c) Understanding the Choice of Airport for the Long-Distance Trip .................................................. 75 Factors Affecting Airport Choice .................................................................................................... 75 Previous Explorations of Airport Choice ........................................................................................ 76 Implications from the ACRP 2017 Survey Results ........................................................................ 77 8(d) Long-Distance Travel Behavior in 2017 Compared with 1995 ...................................................... 78 Comparison with Earlier Data ........................................................................................................ 78 Does an Increase in Car Use Make Sense? .................................................................................. 79 The Evident Change in Distribution of Trip Distances ................................................................... 81 8(e) Attitudes Toward the Long-Distance Trip and Its Modes .............................................................. 82 Overall Observation: People Still Want to Travel ........................................................................... 82 Attitudes Toward the Auto .............................................................................................................. 83 Attitudes Toward Congestion and Stress ....................................................................................... 84 Attitudes About Access to/from the Airport .................................................................................... 86 Attitudes About Disturbing Behavior in the Trip ............................................................................. 87 Preferences and Choice of the Air Trip .......................................................................................... 88 Implications from the Attitudinal Data ............................................................................................ 88

viii CHAPTER 9. AN ATTTITUDE-BASED MODEL OF AIR VS. AUTO ........................................................ 89 9(a) Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 89 9(b) Structure ........................................................................................................................................ 89 9(c) The Structural Equations Model Incorporating Values, Preferences, and Attitudes ..................... 89 Defining the Model ......................................................................................................................... 89 The Latent Factors Developed in the Model .................................................................................. 90 Running the Model ......................................................................................................................... 93 Interpreting the Results of the Long-Distance Mode Choice SEM ................................................ 93 CHAPTER 10. MULTINOMIAL LOGIT AND MIXED MULTINOMIAL LOGIT CHOICE MODELS ........... 98 10(a) Multinomial Logit and Mixed Multinomial Logit Choice Models .................................................. 98 Model Estimation ............................................................................................................................ 98 Model Results ................................................................................................................................ 99 Mixed Multinomial Logit Model Application and Simulation ......................................................... 106 CHAPTER 11. THE HYBRID CHOICE MODEL ....................................................................................... 109 11(a) Introduction and Structure ......................................................................................................... 109 11(b) Model Specification ................................................................................................................... 109 Attitudinal Constructs ................................................................................................................... 109 Measurement Model .................................................................................................................... 109 Choice Model ............................................................................................................................... 110 Model Estimation .......................................................................................................................... 110 11(c) Results ....................................................................................................................................... 110 Outputs for Measurement Model and Structural Model ............................................................... 110 Impact of LVs on Utilities in Choice Model................................................................................... 116 Other Deterministic and Random Heterogeneity in Mode Specific Constants ............................ 116 Estimates Relating to Explanatory Variables ............................................................................... 118 Implied Monetary Valuations ........................................................................................................ 119 CHAPTER 12. MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION ................................................................... 121 12(a) Model Implementation ............................................................................................................... 121 12(b) Calibration/Validation ................................................................................................................ 124 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 131 ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS, INITIALISMS, AND SYMBOLS ......................................................... 133

ix LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES IN THE TECHNICAL APPENDIX FIGURE 1-1: PERCENT SHARE FOR FOUR CATEGORIES OF TRIP PURPOSE, 1995 ................................................................... 2 FIGURE 1-2: COMPONENT ELEMENTS WITHIN “LEISURE” CATEGORY. 1995 ............................................................................. 3 FIGURE 1-3: ANNUAL MEDIUM TRIPS PER PERSON, BY AGE GROUP (1995) .............................................................................. 4 FIGURE 1-4: ANNUAL MEDIUM TRIPS PER PERSON, BY INCOME QUARTILE (1995) .................................................................. 5 FIGURE 1-5: TRAVEL CORRIDORS BETWEEN 100 AND 500 MILES IN LENGTH .......................................................................... 6 FIGURE 1-6: AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE BY SPENDING CATEGORY (2014) ........................................................... 7 FIGURE 1-7: HISTORY OF GROWTH IN AIRPORT ENPLANEMENT (1990–2015) ........................................................................... 8 FIGURE 1-8: DECREASE IN AIRLINE SERVICE BY DISTANCE OF FLIGHT SEGMENT (2007–2012) ........................................... 9 FIGURE 1-9: PROJECTED GROWTH IN AIRPORT ENPLANEMENTS, BY REGION (2015–2040) ................................................ 10 FIGURE 1-10: ENPLANEMENTS AT CORE AIRPORTS (IN THOUSANDS) ..................................................................................... 11 FIGURE 1-11: EVOLVING METHODS FOR AVIATION FORECASTING .......................................................................................... 12 FIGURE 1-12: VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL PER CAPITA (1995–2017) ......................................................................................... 13 FIGURE 1-13: COMPARISON OF GDP AND VMT PATTERNS (1990–2014) ................................................................................... 14 FIGURE 1-14: GROWTH IN ENPLANEMENTS AND VMT FROM 1991 ............................................................................................ 15 FIGURE 2-1: DISTRIBUTION OF AIR TRIPS BY ORIGIN-TO-DESTINATION DISTANCE ............................................................... 17 FIGURE 2-2: MODE SHARES, BY DISTANCE (1995) ....................................................................................................................... 18 FIGURE 2-3: EFFECT OF INCOME ON THE AUTOMOBILE SHARE OF TRAVEL FOR LEISURE, BY TRIP DISTANCE (1995) . 19 FIGURE 2-4: THE EFFECT OF INCOME AND PARTY SIZE ON AUTOMOBILE SHARE, BY DISTANCE (1995) .......................... 20 FIGURE 2-5: EFFECT OF TRIP PURPOSE ON AIR SHARE, BY TRIP DISTANCE ......................................................................... 21 FIGURE 2-6: MODE SHARE TO AUTOMOBILE FOR FOUR REGIONS (NONBUSINESS, OVER 1,000 MILES) .......................... 21 FIGURE 2-7: EFFECT OF DISTANCE ON MODE SHARE, DENVER VS. DC FOR BUSINESS TRIP PURPOSE ........................... 22 FIGURE 2-8: EFFECT OF DISTANCE ON MODE SHARE, DENVER VS. DC FOR THE NONBUSINESS TRIP ............................. 23 FIGURE 2-9: AUTOMOBILE SHARE OF LONG-DISTANCE TRAVEL (1995 VS. 2002) ................................................................... 24 FIGURE 2-10: ESTIMATED AIR MODE SHARE, BY DISTANCE (1995 VS. 2008) ........................................................................... 25 FIGURE 3-1: STUDY CORRIDORS RANKED, BY TOTAL TRAFFIC VOLUME ................................................................................ 27 FIGURE 3-2: AIR MODE SHARE AS FUNCTION OF DISTANCE, FOR THE “ONE-DAY DRIVE” CITY PAIRS ............................. 29 FIGURE 4-1: DISTRIBUTION OF GROUND ACCESS TRIP DISTANCES ........................................................................................ 32 FIGURE 4-2: FIVE CATEGORIES OF AIRPORT LOCATION FOR COMPETITION STUDIES ......................................................... 33 FIGURE 4-3: DISTANCE TO MAJOR AIRPORT FOR THOSE LIVING WITHIN 40 MILES OF MINOR AIRPORT ......................... 36 FIGURE 4-4: DISTANCE TO MINOR AIRPORT FOR TRAVELERS WITHIN 40 MILES OF A MAJOR AIRPORT .......................... 36 FIGURE 5-1: EARLY SCENARIO EXPLORATION IN THE FOUNDATIONAL KNOWLEDGE PROJECT ....................................... 39 FIGURE 6-1: SCREENSHOT OF MEDIUM-DISTANCE TRIPS QUESTION FOR CHICAGO-AREA ORIGINS ................................ 43 FIGURE 6-2: SCREENSHOT OF LONG-DISTANCE TRIPS QUESTION FOR CHICAGO-AREA ORIGINS .................................... 44 FIGURE 6-3: SCREENSHOT OF AN EXAMPLE SP EXPERIMENT ................................................................................................. 45 FIGURE 6-4: SCREENSHOT OF ONE SET OF ATTITUDINAL QUESTIONS ................................................................................... 46 FIGURE 7-1: SEGMENT SIZES ........................................................................................................................................................... 52 FIGURE 7-2: RANKING KEY ............................................................................................................................................................... 54 FIGURE 7-3: SELECT ATTITUDES ABOUT DRIVING AND TRAVEL BY CAR, BY LCC ................................................................ 56 FIGURE 7-4: SELECT ATTITUDES ABOUT FLYING AND TRAVEL BY PLANE, BY LCC .............................................................. 57 FIGURE 8-1: AIR COSTS PER MILE, BY TRIP DISTANCE ............................................................................................................... 62

x FIGURE 8-2: COST MODEL FULLY ALLOCATED ROUNDTRIP, BY MODE, AND PARTY SIZE ($0.54 PER MILE ).................... 64 FIGURE 8-3: COST MODEL, NON-FIXED ROUND TRIP COSTS, BY DISTANCE CAR ($0.23 PER MILE) ................................... 65 FIGURE 8-4: ATTITUDINAL BELIEF ABOUT WHEN THE AIR TRIP IS CHEAPER ......................................................................... 66 FIGURE 8-5: AUTO SHARE BY TRIP DISTANCE, FOR TWO INCOME GROUPS ........................................................................... 67 FIGURE 8-6: INTERACTIVE EFFECT OF DISTANCE AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS ON AUTO MODE SHARE .......................... 68 FIGURE 8-7: EFFECT OF TRIP DISTANCE ON AUTO MODE SHARE, TWO AGE GROUPS......................................................... 69 FIGURE 8-8: AUTO MODE SHARE, BY DISTANCE BY TRIP PURPOSE ........................................................................................ 70 FIGURE 8-9: AUTO MODES SHARE, BY TRIP DISTANCE AND PARTY SIZE ............................................................................... 71 FIGURE 8-10: TRIP PARTY SIZE, BY TRIP PURPOSE AND MODE ................................................................................................ 72 FIGURE 8-11: AUTO MODE SHARE BY DISTANCE—NEED CAR VS. DON'T NEED CAR ............................................................ 73 FIGURE 8-12: NUMBER OF NIGHTS AWAY ...................................................................................................................................... 73 FIGURE 8-13: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NUMBER OF DESTINATIONS AND MODE CHOICE, BY DISTANCE........................ 75 FIGURE 8-14: AUTO MODE SHARE IN 1995 AND 2017 SURVEYS, BY TRIP DISTANCE ............................................................. 79 FIGURE 8-15: CHANGE IN AUTO USE PER CAPITA OVER TWO DECADES ................................................................................ 79 FIGURE 8-16: COST OF AIRLINE TICKETS AND GAS OVER TIME ................................................................................................ 80 FIGURE 8-17: HEDONIC ATTITUDES ABOUT THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP, BY MODE AND AGE GROUP ............................... 82 FIGURE 8-18: ATTITUDES TOWARD THE AUTO BY AGE, GENDER, AND INCOME .................................................................... 83 FIGURE 8-19: ATTITUDES TOWARD CONGESTION ON STRESS .................................................................................................. 84 FIGURE 8-20: PREFERENCES ABOUT LONG-DISTANCE MODE .................................................................................................. 85 FIGURE 8-21:ATTITUDES ABOUT AIRPORT ACCESSIBILITY ....................................................................................................... 86 FIGURE 8-22: CONCERNS ABOUT THE AIR TRIP ........................................................................................................................... 87 FIGURE 9-1: CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM OF STRUCTURAL EQUATIONS MODEL ......................................................................... 90 FIGURE 9-2: RELATIONSHIP OF OBSERVED VARIABLES (RECTANGLES) TO LATENT FACTORS (OVALS)......................... 91 FIGURE 9-3: SEVEN SHORTER-TERM ATTITUDES ABOUT THE TRIP AND THE MODES .......................................................... 92 FIGURE 9-4: TOTAL EFFECT ON MODE CHOICE, RANK ORDERED BY THEIR ABSOLUTE VALUES ...................................... 95 FIGURE 9-5: STANDARDIZED TOTAL EFFECT, EXPRESSED AS POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE VALUES .................................... 96 FIGURE 12-1 FLOW DIAGRAM OF THE ADAPTED FHWA LONG-DISTANCE MODEL SYSTEM ............................................... 122 FIGURE 12-2: PLOT OF TAF VS. ACRP MODEL AIR AND CAR TRIPS AFTER CALIBRATION ................................................. 126 FIGURE 12-3: PLOT OF TAF VS. ACRP MODEL AIR MODE SHARES AFTER CALIBRATION ................................................... 127 FIGURE 12-4: PLOT OF ACRP MODEL AIR MODE SHARES, BY TOUR PURPOSE ................................................................... 128 TABLE 3-1: STUDY CITY-PAIR MARKETS OF 100–800 MILES, RANKED BY AIR MODE SHARE ABOVE 2% .......................... 28 TABLE 4-1: DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENTS' AIRPORT LOCATION/POTENTIAL COMPETITION, BY STATE ........................... 33 TABLE 4-2: SELECTION OF AIRPORTS FOR LONG- AND SHORT-DISTANCE TRIPS FROM NEW ENGLAND ......................... 37 TABLE 4-3: SELECTION OF AIRPORTS FOR LONG- AND SHORT-DISTANCE TRIPS FROM CALIFORNIA .............................. 38 TABLE 5-1: ANNUAL TRIPS (1,000S) BY MODE, NO ACTION AND PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE (2040) .................................. 40 TABLE 6-1 GEOGRAPHIC QUOTAS .................................................................................................................................................. 41 TABLE 6-2: DISTANCE, PURPOSE, AND MODE QUOTAS .............................................................................................................. 42 TABLE 6-4: SAMPLE QUOTAS AND COMPLETED SURVEYS, BY GEOGRAPHY ........................................................................ 47 TABLE 6-5: SAMPLE QUOTAS AND COMPLETED SURVEYS, BY TRIP TYPE ............................................................................. 47 TABLE 6-6: AGE CATEGORY OF COMPLETED SURVEYS ............................................................................................................. 48

xi TABLE 6-7: GENDER OF COMPLETED SURVEYS .......................................................................................................................... 48 TABLE 6-8: HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF COMPLETED SURVEYS ................................................................................................... 48 TABLE 7-1 INDICATOR VARIABLES AND VARIANCE EXPLAINED ............................................................................................... 51 TABLE 7-2: OVERVIEW CHARACTERISTICS OF LCCS .................................................................................................................. 55 TABLE 8-1: AIR TRIP COSTS ............................................................................................................................................................. 63 TABLE 8-2: CHANGE IN AIR TRIP BEHAVIOR BETWEEN 1995 AND 2017 .................................................................................. 81 TABLE 9-1: STANDARDIZED TOTAL EFFECT, IMPACT OF COLUMNS ON ROWS ...................................................................... 94 TABLE 9-2: UNSTANDARDIZED AND STANDARDIZED COEFFICIENTS IN THE SEM ................................................................. 97 TABLE 10-1: AIR CONSTANTS FOR THE MNL MODELS .............................................................................................................. 100 TABLE 10-2: CAR CONSTANTS FOR THE MNL MODELS ............................................................................................................ 101 TABLE 10-3: LEVEL-OF-SERVICE COEFFICIENTS FOR THE MNL MODELS ............................................................................. 103 TABLE 10-4: IMPLIED VALUES OF TIME IN THE MNL MODELS, $87,500 YEARLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME ............................ 104 TABLE 10-5: WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR LEVEL-OF-SERVICE ATTRIBUTES AT $87,500 ANNUAL INCOME ...................... 104 TABLE 10-6: VARIABLE INPUTS TO THE MMNL MODEL SIMULATOR ....................................................................................... 106 TABLE 10-7: BASE SCENARIO AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR EARLY SIMULATED SCENARIOS .................................. 107 TABLE 11-1: AUTO ORIENTATION—ATTITUDINAL STATEMENT ............................................................................................... 111 TABLE 11-2: AUTO ORIENTATION—DEMOGRAPHICS ................................................................................................................ 111 TABLE 11-3: VALUES INFORMATION/TECHNOLOGY—ATTITUDINAL STATEMENT ............................................................... 112 TABLE 11-4: VALUES INFORMATION/TECHNOLOGY—DEMOGRAPHICS ................................................................................. 112 TABLE 11-5 MULTIDAY TRIPS UNPLEASANT—ATTITUDINAL STATEMENT ............................................................................ 113 TABLE 11-6: MULTIDAY TRIPS UNPLEASANT—DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................................................ 113 TABLE 11-7: CAR STRESS—ATTITUDINAL STATEMENT ............................................................................................................ 114 TABLE 11-8: CAR STRESS—COEFFICIENT ................................................................................................................................... 114 TABLE 11-9: AIRPORT STRESS—ATTITUDINAL STATEMENT .................................................................................................... 115 TABLE 11-10: AIRPORT STRESS—COEFFICIENT ........................................................................................................................ 115 TABLE 11-11: IMPACT OF LVS ON UTILITIES IN CHOICE MODEL .............................................................................................. 116 TABLE 11-12: OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND RANDOM HETEROGENEITY IN MODE SPECIFIC CONSTANTS ....................... 117 TABLE 11-13: DETERMINISTIC AND RANDOM HETEROGENEITY IN MODE SPECIFIC CONSTANTS—RENTAL CAR ........ 117 TABLE 11-14: ESTIMATES RELATING TO EXPLANATORY VARIABLES .................................................................................... 118 TABLE 11-15: IMPLIED MONETARY VALUATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 119 TABLE 12-1: 2011 NATIONAL CALIBRATION TARGETS DERIVED FROM FHWA TAF MATRICES .......................................... 125 TABLE 12-2: TOTALS FROM THE ACRP MODEL AFTER CALIBRATION ................................................................................... 125 TABLE 12-3: ACRP MODEL AIR MODE SHARES, BY DISTANCE BAND AND TOUR PURPOSE .............................................. 128 TABLE 12-4: MARKETS AND AIRPORTS ANALYZED SEPARATELY .......................................................................................... 129 TABLE 12-5: AIRPORT ANNUAL DOMESTIC OD TRIPS (MILLIONS) FROM DB1B 2011 AND 2017 AND THE MODEL .......... 130

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This technical appendix from the TRB Airport Cooperative Research Program, ACRP Web-Only Document 38: Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile, supplements ACRP Research Report 204: Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile with more detailed documentation of the research effort, including greater technical detail on the analytical models created for the research and their application.

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