A DECADAL SURVEY
OF THE SOCIAL AND
BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
A Research Agenda for
Advancing Intelligence Analysis
DIGEST VERSION
Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences
for Applications to National Security
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Contract No. 2014-14041100003-009. Support for the work of the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences is provided primarily by a grant from the National Science Foundation (Award No. BCS-1729167). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-67032-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-67032-2
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25648
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Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis: Digest Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25648.
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COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
PAUL R. SACKETT (Chair), Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota
GARY G. BERNTSON, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, School of Computer Science, Institute for Software Research International, Carnegie Mellon University
NOSHIR S. CONTRACTOR, McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, School of Communications, and the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
NANCY J. COOKE, The Polytechnic School, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University
BARBARA ANNE DOSHER (NAS), Department of Cognitive Science, University of California, Irvine
JEFFREY C. JOHNSON, Department of Anthropology, University of Florida
SALLIE KELLER, Social and Decision Analytics Division, Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia
DAVID MATSUMOTO, Department of Psychology, College of Science and Engineering, San Francisco State University
CARMEN MEDINA, MedinAnalytics, LLC
FRAN P. MOORE, The Financial Systemic Analysis and Resilience Center
JONATHAN D. MORENO (NAM), Perelman School of Medicine, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania
JOY ROHDE, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan
JEFFREY W. TALIAFERRO, Department of Political Science, Tufts University
GREGORY F. TREVERTON, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, School of International Relations, University of Southern California
JEREMY M. WOLFE, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School
SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director
ALEXANDRA BEATTY (from March 2017), Senior Program Officer
JULIE ANNE SCHUCK, Program Officer
ELIZABETH TOWNSEND (until March 2018), Research Associate
RENÉE L. WILSON GAINES (until June 2018), Senior Program Assistant
THELMA COX, Program Coordinator
BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES
SUSAN T. FISKE (Chair), Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
JOHN BAUGH, Department of Arts & Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis
LAURA L. CARSTENSEN, Department of Psychology, Stanford University
JUDY DUBNO, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of South Carolina
JENNIFER EBERHARDT, Department of Psychology, Stanford University
ROBERT L. GOLDSTONE, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University
DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology, Michigan State University
NANCY G. KANWISHER, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JANICE KIECOLT-GLASER, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University College of Medicine
BILL C. MAURER, School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine
STEVEN E. PETERSEN, Department of Neurology and Neurological Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine
DANA M. SMALL, Department of Psychiatry, Yale Medical School
TIMOTHY J. STRAUMAN, Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University
JEREMY M. WOLFE, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School
BARBARA A. WANCHISEN, Director
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Contents
2 Opportunities for the Intelligence Community
Sensemaking: Emerging Ways to Answer Intelligence Questions
Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences (SBS) Research to Enhance Security in Cyberspace
Integrating the Social And Behavioral Sciences (SBS) into the Design of a Human–Machine Ecosystem
Strengthening the Analytic Workforce for Future Challenges
3 Capitalizing on Opportunities in Social and Behavioral Science (SBS) Research: A 10-Year Vision
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Foreword
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which oversees and directs the work of the agencies and organizations responsible for foreign, military, and domestic intelligence for the United States, has a strong interest in research from the social and behavioral sciences. The Intelligence Community (IC) turns to researchers from these fields for support with many challenges and currently has multiple mechanisms for engaging researchers and mining their understanding and expertise to support the work of the intelligence analyst.
But the ODNI has also recognized the need for a more systematic understanding of the potential benefits these disciplines offer for strengthening national security in the long term. It asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a study that would identify a 10-year research agenda and also elaborate on possibilities for fostering collaboration between the IC and the SBS research community. The ODNI requested that the study take the form of a decadal survey of the potential contributions that research from the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) can make to national security. Decadal surveys are a means of engaging members of an academic community to identify lines of research with the greatest potential to be of use over a 10-year period in the pursuit of a particular goal. This approach was first developed by the National Academies in the 1960s but this was the first study of its kind to survey the social and behavioral sciences, and also the first application of the process to the needs of the IC.
The resulting report, A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis, published
in early 2019, explored a wide range of research opportunities in detail and set them in the context of a thorough discussion of the IC and the SBS research community; their history of working together and challenges and values they share; the work of intelligence analysts; and the global risks they monitor. Reviewers who appreciated the comprehensiveness of that report also expressed a desire for a summary that would capture the most important ideas for the IC to consider in the coming decade but also be easier to digest.
The result is this volume, which provides an overview of the primary opportunities that research in the social and behavioral sciences offers for strengthening national security, specifically the work of the intelligence analyst, and the conclusions and recommendations of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Survey. This digest version is a succinct roadmap to the critical contribution SBS research makes to national security; readers whose appetites may be whetted will find a wealth of detail in the original report.1
The original decadal survey and this digest volume were made possible by the generous sponsorship of ODNI as well as substantive core support for the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences received from the National Science Foundation’s Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Directorate, which ensured necessary oversight on the project. I also want to acknowledge staff member Alix Beatty, who prepared this volume.
Susan Fiske, Chair
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
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1 The original report can be downloaded for free at https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25335/a-decadal-survey-of-the-social-and-behavioral-sciences-a.