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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25668.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics A Midterm Assessment Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey – Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH17CB02B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25668 Cover: Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25668. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF PROGRESS TOWARD IMPLEMENTING THE DECADAL SURVEY—SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY ROBYN MILLAN, Dartmouth College, Co-Chair THOMAS N. WOODS, University of Colorado, Co-Chair TIMOTHY S. BASTIAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MONICA G. BOBRA, Stanford University ANTHEA J. COSTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology EDWARD E. DELUCA, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory SCOTT L. ENGLAND, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University STEPHEN A. FUSELIER, Southwest Research Institute RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, Arlington JANET G. LUHMANN, University of California, Berkeley KATARIINA NYKYRI, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University JENS OBERHEIDE, Clemson University MERAV OPHER, Boston University CAROLUS J. SCHEIJVER, Lockheed-Martin (Retired) JOSHUA SEMETER, Boston University JEFFREY P. THAYER, University of Colorado, Boulder ALAN M. TITLE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center Staff ARTHUR CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Study Director COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board / Space Studies Board MIA BROWN, Research Associate GAYBRIELLE HOLBERT, Program Assistant SARAH E. MORAN, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

SPACE STUDIES BOARD FIONA HARRISON, NAS,1 California Institute of Technology, Chair (until January 2019) JAMES H. CROCKER, NAE,2 Lockheed Martin (Retired), Vice Chair GREGORY P. ASNER, NAS, Carnegie Institution for Science JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant ADAM BURROWS, NAS, Princeton University MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research VICTORIA HAMILTON, Southwest Research Institute CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, George Washington University DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory STEPHEN J. MACKWELL, Universities Space Research Association DAVID J. MCCOMAS, Princeton University LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego ERIKA WAGNER, Blue Origin PAUL WOOSTER, Space Exploration Technologies EDWARD L. WRIGHT, NAS, University of California, Los Angeles Staff COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director ANDREA REBHOLZ, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Preface Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society1 was the second National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine “decadal survey” in the disciplines often referred to as heliophysics. Building on the research accomplishments realized in the period since publication of the inaugural decadal survey for heliophysics,2 the report presented a program of basic and applied research for the period 2013-2022 to: ● Improve scientific understanding of the mechanisms that drive the Sun’s activity and the fundamental physical processes underlying near-Earth plasma dynamics; ● Determine the physical interactions of Earth’s atmospheric layers in the context of the connected Sun-Earth system; and ● Enhance greatly the capability to provide realistic and specific forecasts of Earth’s space environment that will better serve the needs of society. Although the recommended program was directed primarily at NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the report also recommended actions by other federal agencies, especially the parts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charged with the day-to-day (operational) forecast of space weather. In the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, Congress directed NASA to have the performance of each division in the Science Mission Directorate reviewed and assessed by the National Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academies, at 5-year intervals. Responding to this mandate for the heliophysics decadal survey, NASA, in the fall of 2018, asked the Space Studies Board of the National Academies to convene an ad hoc committee to review the alignment of their Heliophysics program with the survey. The statement of task for the midterm assessment (reprinted in Appendix A) included a request for guidance regarding implementation of the recommended portfolio for the remaining years of the current decadal survey interval, as well as actions that should be undertaken to prepare for the next decadal survey. The midterm assessment committee, the Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey—Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (the “committee”) was also asked to consider steps to enhance the careers of solar and space physics practitioners, which is directly related to the “health” of the disciplines that comprise solar and space physics. In making its recommendations, it is important to note that the committee, per the study terms of reference, did not revisit the priorities, including those pertaining to the science objectives and associated missions recommended for development by NASA, that were made in the 2013 decadal survey. Biographies of the committee, chaired by Robyn Millan, Dartmouth College, and Tom Woods, University of Colorado, are provided in Appendix B. 1 National Research Council, 2013, Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. 2 National Research Council, 2003, The Sun to the Earth —and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

The committee was formed in Fall 2018 and met three times in person over the course of the study.3 The committee also met on an approximate bi-weekly schedule via teleconference. Input from the solar and space physics community was solicited via professional society newsletters and at town hall sessions held at NSF summer workshops for its CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions), GEM (Geospace Environment Modeling), and SHINE (Solar, Heliosphere and Interplanetary Environment) programs. A town hall was also held at a meeting of the Solar Physics Division (SPD) of the American Astronomical Society. Poster presentations about the committee activities were also presented at the GEM workshop, SHINE workshop, SPD meeting, and NOAA’s Space Weather Week meeting. Agendas for the committee’s in-person meetings are shown in Appendix C. The organization of this report is as follows: Chapter 1 provides a brief description of the field of heliophysics and the current heliophysics programs at relevant federal agencies. In Chapter 2, several science highlights in each of the three heliophysics subdisciplines are described to provide a flavor for some of the exciting science accomplishments already realized during the first part of the decade (2013- 2019). Chapter 3 provides a more detailed assessment of progress towards each of the research recommendations made in the 2013 decadal survey, as well as opportunities and challenges for the remainder of the current decade. Similarly, Chapter 4 discusses the recent progress and near future opportunities for the application recommendations in the 2013 decadal survey. Consideration of steps to further enhance and develop a strong and diverse workforce in order to maximize progress in heliophysics exploration and research in the coming decades is the subject of Chapter 5. Chapter 6 discusses planning that could be undertaken in preparation for the 2023-2033 decadal survey in solar and space physics. A full list of findings and the section where each is discussed in the report is provided in Appendix D, Appendix E includes a more detailed description of science progress since the 2013 decadal survey, and a full acronym list is found in Appendix F. Note: Information in this report was current as of October 10, 2019, which coincides with the date of the successful launch of NASA’s Ionospheric Connection Explorer. 3 Disruptions, including cancelation of a planned in-person meeting, due to the federal government shutdown from late December 2018 through late January 2019 resulted in delays in the completion of this report. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION viii

Contents SUMMARY S-1 1 INTRODUCTION TO HELIOPHYSICS AND ITS PREVIOUS DECADAL 1-1 SURVEY 1.1 Heliophysics Science Introduction, 1-1 1.2 Fundamental Physical Processes in Heliophysics, 1-4 1.3 Current Heliophysics Missions and Major Programs, 1-9 1.4 Highlights of the Heliophysics Decadal Survey Recommendations, 1-14 1.5 Midterm Assessment Committee Charge and Report Outline, 1-14 1.6 References, 1-17 2 SCIENCE DISCOVERIES AND TECHNICAL ADVANCES 2-1 2.1 In Brief, 2-1 2.2 Solar and Heliospheric Physics, 2-3 2.3 Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions, 2-4 2.4 Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions, 2-6 2.5 Advances in Research Tools for Heliophysics Science, 2-8 2.6 References, 2-13 3 PROGRESS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND CHALLENGES FOR DECADAL SURVEY 3-1 RESEARCH GOALS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 3.1 An Overview of Progress Toward the Decadal Research Recommendations, 3-1 3.2 Baseline Priority for NASA and NSF: Complete the Current Program, 3-9 3.3 Implement the DRIVE Initiative, 3-14 3.4 Accelerate and Expand the Heliophysics Explorers Program, 3-31 3.5 Restructure STP as a Moderate-Scale, PI-Led Line, 3-34 3.6 Implement a Large LWS GDC-like Mission, 3-37 3.7 References, 3-38 4 PROGRESS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND CHALLENGES FOR DECADAL SURVEY 4-1 APPLICATIONS GOALS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 Introduction, 4-1 4.2 Recharter the National Space Weather Program, 4-1 4.3 Progres on Multi-Agency Partnership to Achieve Continuity of Solar and Solar Wind Observations, 4-4 4.4 Applications Recommendations, 4-9 4.5 References, 4-10 5 HELIOPHYSICS CAREER ENHANCEMENTS 5-1 5.1 Enhancing Funding Opportunities for Heliophysics Scientists, 5-1 5.2 Enhancing Professional Training for Heliophysics Research, 5-3 5.3 Improving Diversity in the Heliophysics Community, 5-4 5.4 References, 5-7 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

6 PREPARING FOR THE NEXT HELIOPHYSICS DECADAL SURVEY 6-1 6.1 Preparations Before the Next Decadal Survey, 6-1 6.2 Considerations for Next Decadal Survey Process, 6-4 6.3 Emerging Topics of Interest for the Next Decadal Survey, 6-6 6.4 References, 6-10 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task A-1 B Committee and Staff Biographies B-1 C Committee Meeting Agendas C-1 D Report Findings D-1 E Progress for Science Challenges in 2013 Heliophysics Decadal Survey E-1 F Acronyms F-1 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION x

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The 2013 report Solar and Space Physics; A Science for a Technological Society outlined a program of basic and applied research for the period 2013-2022. This publication describes the most significant scientific discoveries, technical advances, and relevant programmatic changes in solar and space physics since the publication of that decadal survey. Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics assesses the degree to which the programs of the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration address the strategies, goals, and priorities outlined in the 2013 decadal survey, and the progress that has been made in meeting those goals. This report additionally considers steps to enhance career opportunities in solar and space physics and recommends actions that should be undertaken to prepare for the next decadal survey.

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