Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications (2019)

Chapter: NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications

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Suggested Citation:"NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.

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Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications Garnet Erdakos Shih Ying Chang Douglas Eisinger Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA Adrienne Heller Heather Unger Louis Berger Denver, CO Contractorâs Final Report for NCHRP Project 25-25, Task 115 Submitted November 2019 Web-Only Document 274: NCHRP

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Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications

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Vehicle electrification is one of the emerging and potentially disruptive technologies that are being considered to reduce emissions of criteria pollutants, mobile source air toxics (MSATs), and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from motor vehicles.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications analyzes a set of scenarios of infrastructure development, policy changes, and cost parameters, with a suite of 49 simulations across those scenarios conducted to assess their impact on nationwide zero emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and the corresponding levels of exhaust emissions.

The model used in the scenarios analysis is a consumer choice model that estimates future sales, populations, and fuel consumption of advanced technology vehicles (ATVs), including ZEVs.

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