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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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73 REFERENCES Al-Alawi, B.M., and T.H. Bradley. 2013. “Review of Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, And Electric Vehicle Market Modeling Studies.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 21, May 2013, Pages 190-203. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211300004X (As of March 29, 2019). Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers. 2019. Advanced Technology Vehicle Sales Dashboard. Available at: https://autoalliance.org/energy-environment/advanced-technology-vehicle-sales-dashboard/ (As of September 9, 2019). Automotive News (2017) Electric vehicles and the future of fixed ops. https://www.autonews.com/article/20171218/RETAIL05/171219906/electric-vehicles-and-the- future-of-fixed-ops. (As of September 9, 2019). Babaee, S., A.S. Nagpure, J.F. DeCarolis. 2014. “How Much Do Electric Vehicles Matter to Future U.S. Emissions?” Environmental Science Technology, 2014, 48 (3), pp 1382–1390. Available at: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/ipdf/10.1021/es4045677 (As of March 29, 2019). Beacon Economics. 2018. The Road Ahead for Zero-Emission Vehicles in California. Available at: https://www.next10.org/sites/default/files/ca-zev-brief.pdf (As of March 29, 2019). Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 2018. Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018. Available at: https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/ (As of March 29, 2019). British Petroleum. 2018. BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition. Available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy- economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf (As of September 27, 2019). California Department of Motor Vehicles. 2019. Clean Air Vehicle Decals - High Occupancy Vehicle Lane Usage. Available at: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/?1dmy&urile=wcm:path:/dmv_content_en/dmv/vr/decal. (As of September 10, 2019). California Department of Transportation. 2019. Sustainability: Zero Emission Vehicles. Available at https://dot.ca.gov/programs/sustainability (As of November 20, 2019). California Energy Commission. 2017. Transportation Energy Demand Forecast 2018 – 2030. State of California. Available at: https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocument.aspx?tn=221893 (As of March 29, 2019). California Public Utilities Commission. 2018. Zero Emission Vehicles – Fact Sheet. State of California. Available at: https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/factsheets/ zev_regulation_factsheet_082418.pdf (As of March 29, 2019). Coffman, M., P. Bernstein, and S. Wee. 2016. “Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption.” Transport Reviews. Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 79-93. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2016.1217282. (As of September 25, 2019). Congressional Budget Office. 2012. Effects of Federal Tax Credits for the Purchase of Electric Vehicles. Available at: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-2012/reports/09-20-12- electricvehicles0.pdf (As of October 1, 2019).

74 Congressional Research Service. 2019. The plug-in electric vehicle tax credit. Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11017.pdf (As of September 10, 2019). Consumer Reports. 2019. Tesla Model 3 Loses CR Recommendation Over Reliability Issues. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/tesla-model-3-loses-cr- recommendation-over-reliability-issues/ (As of September 9, 2019). Consumers Union and Union of Concerned Scientists. 2016. Electric Vehicle Survey Methodology and Assumptions: Driving Habits, Vehicle Needs, and Attitude towards Electric Vehicles in the Northeast and California. Consumers Union/Union of Concerned Scientists. Available at: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/05/Electric-Vehicle-Survey- Methodology.pdf (As of March 29, 2019). Eisenstein, P.A. 2019. “EVs will reach cost parity with gas cars ‘sooner than people think,’ says GM’s Reuss.” The Detroit Bureau, June 7. Available at https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2019/06/evs- will-reach-cost-parity-with-gas-cars-sooner-than-people-think-says-gms-reuss (As of November 20, 2019). Digital Trends. 2018. It’s not easy being green: California strips HOV rights from clean-air cars. Available at: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/california-drivers-lose-clean-air-decals/ (As of September 10, 2019). Electrify America. 2017. Supplement to the California ZEV Investment Plan Cycle 1. Volkswagen Group of America. Available at: https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/msprog/vw_info/vsi/vw- zevinvest/documents/california_zev_investment_plan_supplement_062917.pdf (As of November 21, 2019). Electrify America. 2018. California ZEV Investment Plan: Cycle 2. Volkswagen Group of America. Available at: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/sites/default/files/inline- files/Cycle%202%20California%20ZEV%20Investment%20Plan.pdf (As of March 29, 2019). Electrify America. 2019. National ZEV Investment Plan: Cycle 2. Volkswagen Group of America. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2019-02/documents/cycle2- nationalzevinvestmentplan.pdf (As of March 29, 2019). Environmental and Energy Study Institute. 2017. Fact Sheet - Plug-in Electric Vehicles (2017). https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-plug-in-electric-vehicles-2017 (As of September 9, 2019). Fanchao, L., E. Molin, and B. van Wee. “Consumer preferences for electric vehicles: a literature review.” Transport Reviews, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 252-275. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2016.1230794 (As of September 27, 2019). Farzaneh, R., Y. Chen, J. Johnson, J. Zietsman, C. Gu, T. Ramani, L.D. White, M. Kenney, and Y. Zhang. 2014. Accounting for Electric Vehicles in Air Quality Conformity‒Final Report. Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Federal Highway Administration Cooperative Research Program. Technical Report 0-6763-1. Available at: https://static.tti.tamu.edu/tti.tamu.edu/documents/0- 6763-1.pdf (As of September 25, 2019). Figenbaum, E. and M. Kolbenstvedt. 2016. Learning from Norwegian Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle users. Institute of Transport Economics Norwegian Centre for Transport

75 Research. Available at: https://www.toi.no/getfile.php/1343167/Publikasjoner/T%C3%98I%20rapporter/2016/1492- 2016/Summary.pdf (As of September 27, 2019). Fordham, D., J. Norris, and J. Proudfoot. 2015. Feasibility and Implications of Electric Vehicle (EV) Deployment and Infrastructure Development. Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C. Technical Report FHWA-HEP-15-021. Available at: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/sustainability/energy/publications/ev_deployment/fhwahe p15021.pdf (As of September 27, 2019). Gadh, R. 2018. Demonstrating Plug-in Electric Vehicles Smart Charging and Storage Supporting the Grid. California Energy Commission Energy Research and Development Division, Final Project Report CEC-500-2018-020. Available at: https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/2018publications/CEC-500- 2018-020/CEC-500-2018-020.pdf (As of September 27, 2019). Greene, D.L., Z. Lin, and J. Dong. 2013. “Analyzing the sensitivity of hydrogen vehicle sales to consumers’ preferences.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 38, pp. 15857-15867. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2013.08.099 (As of September 25, 2019). Hanley, S. 2019. “EV price parity coming soon, claims VW executive.” CleanTechnica, August 9. Available at https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/09/ev-price-parity-coming-soon-claims-vw- executive (As of November 20, 2019). Hartman, K. and E. Dowd. 2017. State Efforts to Promote Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. National Conference of State Legislatures. Available at: http://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/state- electric-vehicle-incentives-state-chart.aspx (As of March 29, 2019). International Energy Agency. 2018. Global EV Outlook 2018. Available at: https://webstore.iea.org/global-ev-outlook-2018 (As of September 27, 2019). International Transport Forum. 2018. Towards Road Freight Decarbonisation - Trends, Measures and Policies. TF Policy Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at: https://www.itf- oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/towards-road-freight-decarbonisation_0.pdf (As of September 27, 2019). Javid, R.J. and A. Nejat. 2017. “A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration.” Transport Policy, Vol. 54, pp. 30-42. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.11.003 (As of September 25, 2019). Jenn, A., I.M.L. Azevedo, and J.J. Michalek. 2016. “Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption Increases Fleet Gasoline Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions under United States Corporate Average Fuel Economy Policy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards.” Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 50(5), pp. 2165-2174. Available at: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5b02842 (As of October 1, 2019). Jin, L., and P. Slowik. 2017. Literature review of electric vehicle consumer awareness and outreach activities. International Council on Clean Transportation, Working Paper 2017-03. Available at: https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Consumer-EV-Awareness_ICCT_Working- Paper_23032017_vF.pdf (As of September 11, 2019).

76 Lambert, F. 2019. “GM is pushing for an affordable and profitable electric car.” Electrek, June 7. Available at https://electrek.co/2019/06/07/gm-cheap-profitable-electric-car (As of November 20, 2019). Larson, K., T. Houser, and S. Mohan. Sizing Up a Potential Fuel Economy Standards Freeze. Rhodium Group. Available at: https://rhg.com/research/sizing-up-a-potential-fuel-economy-standards- freeze/ (As of September 27, 2019). Liao, F., E. Molin, and B. van Wee. 2017. “Consumer preferences for electric vehicles: a literature review.” Transport Reviews, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 252-275. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2016.1230794 (As of September 25, 2019). Lin, Z, and C. Liu. 2014. “Consumer-Segmented Vehicle Choice Modeling: the MA3T Model.” Presented at the 2014 U.S. DOE Hydrogen Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. Available at https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/07/f18/van005_lin_2014_p.pdf (As of September 20, 2019). Lin, Z., J. Dong, and D.L. Greene. 2013. “Hydrogen vehicles: Impacts of DOE technical targets on market acceptance and societal benefits.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. Vol. 38, pp. 7973-7985. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2013.04.120 (As of September 25, 2019). Lin, Z., and D.L. Greene. 2011. “Promoting the Market for Plug-In Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles: Role of Recharge Availability.” Transportation Research Record, No. 2252, pp. 49-56. Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3141/2252-07 (As of March 29, 2019). Lin, Z., and D.L. Greene. 2009. “A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market.” Presented at the Transportation Research Board 2010 Annual Meeting. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254994821_A_Plug- in_Hybrid_Consumer_Choice_Model_with_Detailed_Market_Segmentation (As of April 4, 2019). Linnane, C. 2018. “Tesla shares move higher as analyst predicts strong demand and profitability in 2019.” MarketWatch. Available at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-jump-3-as-analyst- predicts-strong-demand-and-profitability-in-2019-2018-12-26 (As of March 29, 2019). Los Angeles Times. 2018. Anger in California’s carpool lanes as more than 200,000 drivers are set to lose decals. Available at: https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-clean-air-car-decals- 20180917-story.html (As of September 10, 2019). Morrison, G., N. Veilleux and C. Powers. 2018. PEV Policy Evaluation Rubric: A Methodology for Evaluating the Impact of State and Local Polices on Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption. National Association of State Energy Officials and Cadmus. Available at: https://naseo.org/Data/Sites/1/pevpolicyrubricmethodology_naseo.pdf (As of September 27, 2019). Nanalyze. 2017. How many electric cars are there in the USA? Available at: https://www.nanalyze.com/2017/03/electric-cars-usa/ (As of September 10, 2019).

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 Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications
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Vehicle electrification is one of the emerging and potentially disruptive technologies that are being considered to reduce emissions of criteria pollutants, mobile source air toxics (MSATs), and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from motor vehicles.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications analyzes a set of scenarios of infrastructure development, policy changes, and cost parameters, with a suite of 49 simulations across those scenarios conducted to assess their impact on nationwide zero emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and the corresponding levels of exhaust emissions.

The model used in the scenarios analysis is a consumer choice model that estimates future sales, populations, and fuel consumption of advanced technology vehicles (ATVs), including ZEVs.

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