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Page 90
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Page 92
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 92
Page 93
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Page 94
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 94
Page 95
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Page 96
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 96
Page 97
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 97
Page 98
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 98
Page 99
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 99
Page 100
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
Page 100
Page 101
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Page 102
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Page 103
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A Supplemental Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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83 APPENDIX A SUPPLEMENTAL DATA Table A-1. Estimated number of public charging stations and gas stations by state (2019) State Electric Stations Gas stations Alabama 117 3,128 Alaska 17 187 Arizona 442 1,639 Arkansas 76 1,540 California 5,275 7,471 Colorado 727 1,550 Connecticut 341 1,065 Delaware 51 247 District of Columbia 122 79 Florida 1,223 6,200 Georgia 796 5,002 Hawaii 268 264 Idaho 73 672 Illinois 496 3,803 Indiana 213 2,694 Iowa 127 1,769 Kansas 186 1,106 Kentucky 117 2,024 Louisiana 91 2,381 Maine 159 751 Maryland 608 1,537

84 State Electric Stations Gas stations Massachusetts 623 1,951 Michigan 405 3,703 Minnesota 332 2,103 Mississippi 61 1,961 Missouri 415 2,653 Montana 48 497 Nebraska 80 973 Nevada 256 780 New Hampshire 113 538 New Jersey 315 2,373 New Mexico 77 874 New York 1,389 4,696 North Carolina 612 4,501 North Dakota 22 467 Ohio 456 3,804 Oklahoma 76 1,861 Oregon 609 925 Pennsylvania 451 3,829 Rhode Island 86 306 South Carolina 243 2,558 South Dakota 37 615 Tennessee 386 3,398 Texas 1,159 10,599

85 State Electric Stations Gas stations Utah 233 778 Vermont 218 433 Virginia 591 3,069 Washington 889 1,862 West Virginia 88 970 Wisconsin 291 2,560 Wyoming 51 330 Source: United States Census 2018; United States Department of Energy 2019 Table A-2. Electrify America planned operational electric charging stations through Cycle 2 Quarter Year Operational Stations - Outside of CA Operational Stations - CA only* Q4 2019 40 to 50 5 to 10 Q2 2020 80 to 100 635 to 880 Q4 2020 120 to 140 1315 to 1720 Q2 2021 160 to 180 1935 to 2610 Q4 2021 ~215 2605 to 3460 *Note that Electrify America expects to fund between 2,500 and 3,300 L2 home (and possibly workplace) chargers as part of this spend in Cycle 2. Source: Electrify America 2018 and 2019 Table A-3. Future California investor owned utilities (IOU)-planned electric charging stations SDG&Ea SCEb PG&Ec Total new chargers 3,500 1,500 7,500

86 Targeted percentages Workplace 50% 25% 50% Home 50% 50% 50% Public 0% 25% 0% a http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M158/K241/158241020.PDF b http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M157/K835/157835660.PDF c http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M171/K539/171539218.PDF Table A-4. Default ZEV rebate amounts ($) in MA3T for the 50 states and Washington, D.C.a State Default Rebate Amount ($) State Default Rebate Amount ($) State Default Rebate Amount ($) Alabama - Kentucky - North Dakota - Alaska - Louisiana 3,000 Ohio - Arizona 560 Maine - Oklahoma 1,500 Arkansas - Maryland 2,000 Oregon - California 2,500 Massachusetts - Pennsylvania 3,000 Colorado 6,000 Michigan - Rhode Island 1,875 Connecticut - Minnesota - South Carolina 2,000 Delaware - Mississippi - South Dakota - Washington, D.C. 2,800 Missouri - Tennessee 2,500 Florida - Montana - Texas 2,500 Georgia 5,000 Nebraska - Utah 605 Hawaii 4,500 Nevada - Vermont - Idaho - New Hampshire - Virginia - Illinois 4,083 New Jersey 2,800 Washington 2,600 Indiana - New Mexico - West Virginia - Iowa 389 New York - Wisconsin - Kansas - North Carolina - Wyoming - a For all states and Washington, D.C., the default rebate start year is 2011, and the default rebate duration is five years. Table A-5. Default manufacturer costs ($) for conventional spark ignition vehicles in MA3Ta Year Spark Ignition Conventional Car Spark Ignition Conventional Car Sport Utility Vehicle Spark Ignition Conventional Pickup Truck Spark Ignition Conventional Truck Sport Utility Vehicle 2020 16,079 16,006 18,129 16,921

87 Year Spark Ignition Conventional Car Spark Ignition Conventional Car Sport Utility Vehicle Spark Ignition Conventional Pickup Truck Spark Ignition Conventional Truck Sport Utility Vehicle 2021 16,122 16,053 18,171 16,955 2022 16,165 16,099 18,212 16,989 2023 16,208 16,146 18,253 17,023 2024 16,251 16,193 18,294 17,057 2025 16,293 16,240 18,335 17,091 2026 16,325 16,270 18,356 17,118 2027 16,356 16,299 18,377 17,144 2028 16,387 16,329 18,399 17,171 2029 16,419 16,359 18,420 17,198 2030 16,450 16,388 18,441 17,224 2031 16,485 16,347 18,471 17,242 2032 16,520 16,305 18,501 17,260 2033 16,555 16,264 18,531 17,278 2034 16,590 16,223 18,561 17,296 2035 16,625 16,181 18,591 17,313 2036 16,600 16,158 18,536 17,278 2037 16,576 16,135 18,480 17,243 2038 16,551 16,112 18,425 17,207 2039 16,527 16,089 18,369 17,172 2040 16,502 16,066 18,314 17,137 2041 16,477 16,043 18,258 17,101 2042 16,453 16,020 18,202 17,066 2043 16,428 15,997 18,147 17,031 2044 16,404 15,974 18,091 16,996 2045 16,379 15,951 18,036 16,960 2046 16,354 15,928 17,980 16,925 2047 16,330 15,905 17,925 16,890 2048 16,305 15,882 17,869 16,854 2049 16,281 15,859 17,814 16,819 2050 16,256 15,836 17,758 16,784 a Costs of ZEV technology class variants (e.g., BEV with 100-mile range, BEV with 200-mile range, and BEV with 300-mile range) were set equal to the costs of the corresponding conventional vehicles in the cost parity C1 simulations

88 Figure A-1. Annual average gasoline prices calculated from U.S. Energy Information Administration data, showing a linear fit (dashed line) and slope (m). Data source: U.S. EIA (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/)

89 Figure A-2. U.S. Energy Information Administration data for diesel prices, showing a linear fit (dashed line) and slope (m). Data source: U.S. EIA (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/)

90 Figure A-3. Modeled reductions of criteria pollutant and HC emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are greater than 3%.

91 Figure A-4. Modeled reductions of criteria pollutant and HC emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are between 1% and 3%.

92 Figure A-5. Modeled reductions of criteria pollutant and HC emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are 1% or less, and greater than 0.1%.

93 Figure A-6. Modeled reductions of four of eight modeled MSATs emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are greater than 3%.

94 Figure A-7. Modeled reductions of four of eight modeled MSATs emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are between 1% and 3%.

95 Figure A-8. Modeled reductions of four of eight modeled MSATs emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are less than 1% and greater than 0.1%.

96 Figure A-9. Modeled reductions of remaining four modeled MSATs emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are greater than 3%.

97 Figure A-10. Modeled reductions of remaining four modeled MSATs emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are between 1% and 3%.

98 Figure A-11. Modeled reductions of remaining four modeled MSATs emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are 1% or less, and greater than 0.1%.

99 Figure A-12. Modeled reductions of GHG emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are greater than 3%.

100 Figure A-13. Modeled reductions of GHG emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are between 1% and 3%.

101 Figure A-14. Modeled reductions of GHG emissions, where reductions averaged across the pollutants are 1% or less and greater than 0.1%.

102 ENDNOTES i At the time this report was prepared (2019), federal actions were pending to change California’s historic authority to enact its own vehicle standards. This report does not address the status of these actions. ii ZEV populations in 2040 were estimated as follows: (1) for the AEO data, stock data was taken directly from the 2019 AEO data table (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=49- AEO2019&cases=ref2019&sourcekey=0); (2) for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers’ ATV Sales Dashboard data, populations for 2017 and 2040 were estimated as cumulative sales by summing (a) for 2017, sales from 2005 through 2010 (estimated assuming linear growth between an assumed 2005 ZEV sales of zero and the historical sales data for 2011) and historical sales from 2011 through 2017; and (b) for 2040, the cumulative sales in 2017, the historical 2018 sales, and sales from 2019 through 2040 (assuming linear growth in sales between 2018 2040); and (3) for the MA3T model, estimates of 2040 ZEV populations using all default input values were taken directly from model output. iii The MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is a state-of-the-science emission modeling system developed by the U.S. EPA that estimates emissions for mobile sources at the national, county, and project level for criteria air pollutants, greenhouse gases, and air toxics. iv The total population of short- and long-wheel base light-duty vehicles in 2017 was equal to approximately 300 million vehicles (https://www.bts.gov/content/number-us-aircraft-vehicles-vessels-and-other-conveyances). v Total U.S. GHG emissions in 2017 as CO2 equivalent were 6,457 million metric tons (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases#colorbox-hidden).

Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications Get This Book
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Vehicle electrification is one of the emerging and potentially disruptive technologies that are being considered to reduce emissions of criteria pollutants, mobile source air toxics (MSATs), and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from motor vehicles.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications analyzes a set of scenarios of infrastructure development, policy changes, and cost parameters, with a suite of 49 simulations across those scenarios conducted to assess their impact on nationwide zero emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and the corresponding levels of exhaust emissions.

The model used in the scenarios analysis is a consumer choice model that estimates future sales, populations, and fuel consumption of advanced technology vehicles (ATVs), including ZEVs.

There is also a Power Point presentation accompanying the document.

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