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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25709.
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NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications Garnet Erdakos Shih Ying Chang Douglas Eisinger Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA Adrienne Heller Heather Unger Louis Berger Denver, CO Contractor’s Final Report for NCHRP Project 25-25, Task 115 Submitted November 2019 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, and was conducted in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP Web-Only Document 274 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Ann M. Hartell, Senior Program Officer Jarrel McAfee, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Jennifer J. Weeks, Publishing Projects Manager NCHRP PROJECT 25-25 PANEL Field of Transportation Planning—Human and Natural Environment Antony F. Opperman, Virginia DOT, Richmond, VA (Chair) Gail Anne D'Avino, Georgia DOT, Atlanta, GA William B. Fletcher, II, Oregon DOT, Portland, OR Jane N. Hann, Colorado DOT, Denver, CO Timothy Hill, Ohio DOT, Columbus, OH Timothy V. Sexton, Minnesota DOT, St. Paul, MN Colleen M. Turner, Maryland DOT, Hanover, MD Susan Jones, FHWA Liaison Shannon Eggleston, AASHTO Liaison Melissa A. Savage, AASHTO Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study was conducted for the AASHTO Committee on Environment and Sustainability, with funding provided through the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 25-25, Task 115, Estimates of Emissions Reductions from Future Fleet Changes for Use in Air Quality Models. The report was prepared by Garnet Erdakos, Shih Ying Chang, and Douglas Eisinger of Sonoma Technology, and Adrienne Heller and Heather Unger of Louis Berger. The work was guided by a technical working group that included: • Colleen M. Turner, Maryland Department of Transportation • Rick Baker, Eastern Research Group, Inc. • Jeffrey R. Lidicker, California Air Resources Board • Jane Jie Lin, University of Illinois – Chicago • Natalie Ries, Minnesota Department of Transportation • Lubna Shoaib, East West Gateway Council of Government • Benjamin P. VanGessel, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency • John Davies, Federal Highway Administration (Liaison) • Melissa Savage, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (Liaison) The project was managed by Ann Hartell, NCHRP Senior Program Officer, with assistance from Jarrel McAfee. The research team thanks Dr. Song Bai of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District for his input on the research approach used in this study. In addition, appreciation goes to John Davies of the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, Dr. Zhenhong Lin of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Andrew Breck of the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, for their insights regarding use of the MA3T model.

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Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications Get This Book
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Vehicle electrification is one of the emerging and potentially disruptive technologies that are being considered to reduce emissions of criteria pollutants, mobile source air toxics (MSATs), and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from motor vehicles.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications analyzes a set of scenarios of infrastructure development, policy changes, and cost parameters, with a suite of 49 simulations across those scenarios conducted to assess their impact on nationwide zero emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and the corresponding levels of exhaust emissions.

The model used in the scenarios analysis is a consumer choice model that estimates future sales, populations, and fuel consumption of advanced technology vehicles (ATVs), including ZEVs.

There is also a Power Point presentation accompanying the document.

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