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CONTENTS SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER 1 Background and Approach ..................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2 Brief Literature Review to Support Modeling Scenario Development ................................... 7 2.1 Methodology for Literature Review ............................................................................................. 7 2.2 Literature Review Findings Relevant to Modeling Scenario Development................................ 12 2.2.1 Historical ATV Sales ............................................................................................................. 12 2.2.2 ATV Market Share ................................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Factors Affecting ATV Adoption ............................................................................................... 15 2.3.1 Consumer Preferences ........................................................................................................... 15 2.3.2 State and Federal Policies Influencing BEV/FCEV Adoption .............................................. 18 2.3.3 Technology Characteristics ................................................................................................... 20 2.3.4 Infrastructure Initiatives ......................................................................................................... 21 2.4 Summary of Literature Review ................................................................................................... 23 CHAPTER 3 Analysis Scenarios ................................................................................................................ 25 3.1 Overview of the MA3T Model .................................................................................................... 25 3.2 MA3T and Projections of Future ATV Sales and Populations .................................................... 26 3.3 ZEV Fleet Assumptions in the MOVES Model .......................................................................... 28 3.4 Summary of ZEV Adoption Scenarios ....................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 4 Modeling Assumptions and Results ..................................................................................... 30 4.1 Assumptions for Infrastructure Scenarios ................................................................................... 34 4.1.1 Public charging availability assumptions (I1 simulations) .................................................... 34 4.1.2 Public charging power level (I2 simulations) ........................................................................ 35 4.1.3 Home charging availability (I3 simulations) ......................................................................... 35 4.1.4 Home charging power (I4 simulations) ................................................................................. 36 4.1.5 Workplace charging availability (I5 simulations) ................................................................. 36 4.1.6 Workplace charging power level (I6 simulations) ................................................................. 36 4.2 Assumptions for Incentive/Policy Scenarios .............................................................................. 36 4.2.1 ARRA parameter assumptions (P1 and P2 simulations) ....................................................... 36 4.2.2 State rebate assumptions (P3 through P5 simulations) .......................................................... 37 4.2.3 HOV lane access duration assumptions (P6 simulations)...................................................... 38
4.3 Assumptions for Cost Parity Scenarios ....................................................................................... 38 4.3.1 Vehicle manufacturer cost assumptions (C1 simulations) ..................................................... 38 4.3.2 Gasoline and diesel price assumptions (C2 and C3 simulations) .......................................... 38 4.4 Model Results for ZEV Populations ........................................................................................... 39 4.5 Model Results for Emissions Reductions ................................................................................... 42 4.6 Summary of Modeling Results, Major Limitations, and Implications ........................................ 66 CHAPTER 5 Conclusions and Suggested Research ................................................................................... 70 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 73 ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................................. 81 APPENDIX A Supplemental Data ............................................................................................................. 83
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Annual ATV sales by ATV category .......................................................................................... 13 Figure 2. Light-Duty ATV Stock by Vehicle Type .................................................................................... 15 Figure 3. Forecasted Annual BEV sales from MA3T V20190404 and the 2019 AEO. .............................. 27 Figure 4. Historical (2017) and projected (2040) ZEV populations using three different data sources. ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 5. State average electricity sources and annual emissions per EVs and PHEVs for Washington state and Colorado. ................................................................................................................. 47 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Inputs in MA3T Model .................................................................................................................... 8 Table 2. Number of Resources Reviewed by Topic Area ............................................................................. 9 Table 3. Literature and Data Sources Reviewed ........................................................................................... 9 Table 4. Drivers and Barriers to ATV Adoption......................................................................................... 16 Table 5. Electric Stations and Public Electric Charger Counts by State (2019) ......................................... 21 Table 6. Summary of key factors affecting ATV adoption and their relative importance. ......................... 24 Table 7. ZEV adoption scenarios for modeling in MA3T and estimating emissions reductions ................ 29 Table 8. MA3T parameter adjustments for ZEV adoption scenario simulations ........................................ 31 Table 9. Model results of total ZEV population (millions of vehicles) in 2040 under all scenarios, as estimated by MA3T.a ................................................................................................................................... 41 Table 10. Model results of total ZEV population in 2040 (as a percentage of the total light-duty vehicle population) under all scenarios, as estimated by MA3T.a ............................................................... 42 Table 11. Vehicle type mapping between MA3T and MOVES2014b ........................................................ 43 Table 12. Reduction in modeled light-duty passenger vehicle emissions (in tons) of criteria pollutants and total hydrocarbons (HCs) for calendar year 2040................................................................ 48 Table 13. Reduction in modeled light-duty passenger vehicle emissions (in tons) of four MSATs for calendar year 2040.a .............................................................................................................................. 53 Table 14. Reduction in modeled light-duty passenger vehicle emissions (in tons) of remaining MSATs for calendar year 2040.a ................................................................................................................. 58 Table 15. Reduction in modeled light-duty passenger vehicle emissions of GHGs (million metric tons CO2; metric tons CH4 and N2O) for calendar year 2040.a ................................................................... 63 Table 16. Qualitative impacts of modeled cost parity, policy, and infrastructure changes in the scenario simulations. ................................................................................................................................... 68
