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5 CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND AND APPROACH Vehicle electrification is one of the emerging and potentially disruptive technologies that are being considered to reduce emissions of criteria pollutants, mobile source air toxics (MSATs), and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from motor vehicles. With the implementation of many new vehicle technologies and policy programs, the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric technology vehiclesâsuch as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and FCEVsâis under way. The adoption of zero- emission vehicles (ZEVs)âreferring to BEVs and FCEVs in this projectâis expected to increase air quality benefits given that these vehicles have zero exhaust emissions of criteria pollutants, MSATs, and GHGs (setting aside emissions associated with power generation). Accelerating the adoption of advanced vehicle technologies to replace conventional gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles could play an important role in reducing mobile source emissions. The purpose of the NCHRP 25-25 Task 115 project is to quantify emission changes of criteria pollutants, MSATs, and GHGs as a result of varying future electric and fuel cell vehicle adoption rates in the U.S., and to give transportation agencies insight into the policy changes that could most impact ZEV adoption in the years ahead. To support this project, a set of scenarios of infrastructure development, policy changes, and cost parameters were developed, and a suite of 49 simulations across those scenarios were conducted to assess their impact on nationwide ZEV adoption was forecasted, and their corresponding exhaust emissions were estimated. Other emissions processes (e.g., start emissions, evaporative emissions, and refueling emissions) were not modeled. The results of this project will benefit state departments of transportation (DOTs) and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) by identifying actions (e.g., policy options) and their relative effectiveness as emission reduction strategies. A brief literature review was conducted in order to identify and review how various programs and policies affect ZEV adoption. Much of the literature reviewed covered all advanced technology vehicles (ATVs), including hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), in addition to ZEVs. The results of the literature review presented in this report include findings for all of these ATVs. The findings in the literature review were used to support the development of scenarios used in quantifying future emissions reductions resulting from adoption of ZEVs. By focusing on the most important adoption factors identified in the literature review, the analysis scenarios were used to demonstrate different levels of ZEV adoption given different future policy, consumer, technology, and infrastructure assumptions. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model (version V20190404), developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), was selected to estimate future ZEV populations for the analysis scenarios. Other models are available (e.g., see Javid and Nejat 2017, Liao et al. 2017, Stephens et al. 2017); however, MA3T is a comprehensive model that has been widely used for several government and other studies (e.g., Lin and Greene 2011, Greene et al. 2013, Lin et al. 2013, Farzaneh et al. 2014, Podkaminer et al. 2017), and was recommended by the advisory panel for this project. The MA3T model is a consumer choice model that estimates future sales, populations, and fuel consumption of ATVs, including ZEVs. The model allows users to modify key parameters within the model in developing these forecasts, including consumer data (e.g., attitudes, behaviors, and vehicle charging accessibility), technology data (e.g., vehicle cost, battery cost, and battery range), policy data (e.g., incentives like rebates and tax credits), and infrastructure data (e.g., charging stations and costs). Where possible, supporting data from the literature were used to inform parameter adjustments required
6 by the MA3T model so that scenarios were developed to reflect plausible future conditions and potential changes in ZEV adoption rates. The MOVES2014b model was selected to estimate projected pollutant exhaust emissions across the scenarios. Four modeling scenarios were selected: (1) Base Case, or business as usual; (2) Substantial Expansion of Infrastructure; (3) Advanced Use of Incentives; and (4) Accelerated Achievement of Cost Parity. Collectively, the scenarios bracket a broad range of potential future ZEV fleet changes given different future policy, technology, and infrastructure assumptions. A total of 49 MA3T simulations were conducted for the scenarios listed above; different simulations correspond to different MA3T input parameters (e.g., rebate amounts and availability of electric vehicle charging stations) linked to ZEV adoption rates in a given category (e.g., incentive and infrastructure inputs) and âLow,â âMedium,â and âHighâ adjustments to the input parameters. Three sets of data are presented in this report: (1) the input parameters in MA3T that were adjusted, and details about the value adjustments made to those parameters for each scenario; (2) changes to ZEV populations estimated by MA3T resulting from the parameter adjustments; and (3) the resulting percent changes in emissions that were estimated by the MOVES2014b model for each scenario. The analyses focus on calendar year 2040 only, and include estimates of vehicle exhaust emissions only. Changes in ZEV populations and the resulting changes in emissions represent the differences between results from the Base Case scenario and the three alternative scenarios. The following chapters describe (1) the results from the literature review (Chapter 2); (2) the MA3T model and the ZEV adoption scenarios (Chapter 3); (3) the adjustments made to MA3T input parameters for each scenario and the corresponding modeled ZEV population changes and emissions changes for criteria pollutants, MSATs, and GHGs (Chapter 4); and (4) conclusions and suggestions for future research (Chapter 5).