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Committee on Catalyzing Opportunities for Research in the Earth Sciences (CORES): A Decadal Survey for NSFâs Division of Earth Sciences Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of A Vision for NSF Earth Sciences 2020-2030: Earth in Time as been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in Summer 2020. A Consensus Study Report of Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by a grant between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-1823050. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25761 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. A Vision for NSF Earth Sciences 2020-2030: Earth in Time. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25761. Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision.
COMMITTEE ON CATALYZING OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH IN THE EARTH SCIENCES (CORES): A DECADAL SURVEY FOR NSFâS DIVISION OF EARTH SCIENCES JAMES A. YODER (Chair), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts GREGORY C. BEROZA, Stanford University, Stanford, California TANJA BOSAK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge WILLIAM E. DIETRICH (NAS), University of California, Berkeley TIMOTHY H. DIXON, University of South Florida, Tampa ANDREA DUTTON, University of WisconsinâMadison DIANA F. ELDER, 1 Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff ALEJANDRO N. FLORES, Boise State University, Boise, Idaho MICHAEL FOOTE, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois SHEMIN GE, University of Colorado Boulder GEORGE E. GEHRELS, University of Arizona, Tucson DOUGLAS HOLLETT, Melroy-Hollett Technology Partners, Arlington, Virginia BRUCE HOUGHTON, University of Hawaii at Manoa KATHARINE W. HUNTINGTON, University of Washington, Seattle STEVEN D. JACOBSEN, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois DENNIS V. KENT (NAS), Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey CAROLINA LITHGOW-BERTELLONI, University of California, Los Angeles PAUL E. OLSEN (NAS), Columbia University, New York City, New York DONALD L. SPARKS, University of Delaware, Newark DONNA L. WHITNEY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director ELIZABETH EIDE, Senior Board Director SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer ERIC J. EDKIN, Program Coordinator RAYMOND M. CHAPPETTA, Research Assistant and Senior Program Assistant (as of April 2020) 1 Resigned from the committee. Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. v
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES ISABEL P. MONTAÃEZ (Chair), University of California, Davis ESTELLA A. ATEKWANA, University of Delaware, Newark BRENDA B. BOWEN, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City CHRISTOPHER (SCOTT) CAMERON, Geological Consulting, LLC, Houston, TX NELIA W. DUNBAR, New Mexico Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources, Socorro RODNEY C. EWING, Stanford University, Stanford, CA CAROL P. HARDEN, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville ROBERT L. KLEINBERG, Institute for Sustainable Energy, Boston University, MA THORNE LAY, University of California, Santa Cruz ZELMA MAINE-JACKSON, Washington State Department of Ecology, Richland MICHAEL MANGA, University of California, Berkeley MARTIN W. MCCANN, Stanford University, Stanford, CA JEFFREY N. RUBIN JAMES A. SLUTZ, National Petroleum Council, Washington, DC SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ELIZABETH J. WILSON, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff ELIZABETH EIDE, Director ANNE LINN, Scholar DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Staff Officer SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Staff Officer NICHOLAS ROGERS, Financial Business Partner COURTNEY DEVANE, Administrative Coordinator ERIC EDKIN, Program Coordinator RAYMOND M. CHAPPETTA, Research Assistant and Senior Program Assistant (as of April 2020) ELLENI GIORGIS, Program Assistant Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. vi
Reviewer Acknowledgments This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Susan Brantley (NAS), The Pennsylvania State University Michelle Coombs, U.S. Geological Survey Karen Fischer, Brown University Gordon Grant, U.S. Forest Service Thorne Lay (NAS), University of California, Santa Cruz Jennifer Macalady, The Pennsylvania State University Cathryn Manduca, Carleton College Lisa Park Boush, University of Connecticut Roberta Rudnick (NAS), University of California, Santa Barbara Blair Schoene, Princeton University Philip Skemer, Washington University in St. Louis Jane Willenbring, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Jack Williams, University of WisconsinâMadison Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Norman Sleep (NAS), Stanford University, and George Hornberger (NAE), Vanderbilt University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. vii
Acknowledgments Many individuals assisted the committee and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine staff in their task to create this report. Over the course of five meetings, town halls and listening sessions, and webinars, the committee engaged with interested colleagues in academia, industry, and government. The committee greatly appreciated the chance to learn not only from the participants of these meetings and webinars, but also from each of the respondents to the questionnaire and from the facility operators, who kindly answered many questions. Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. ix
Preface I would like to briefly introduce the report with my personal observations as an outsider to the Earth science field, in that my background is in oceanography. However, I spent a few years at both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation, and have served on two other recent decadal surveysâSea Change: 2015-2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences and Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space. Because of this, I have experience with the process of developing a decadal report and insights into its potential impact. During the committee discussions, I was so impressed with the importance of Earth science research. Much of the science was new to me, and I soon learned to appreciate the excitement of Division of Earth Sciences (EAR)-supported research over such a broad range of topics. I also learned just how much of EAR research is at the heart of what society needs to know from scientists: volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, distribution of essential elements across and below the Earthâs surface, climate change, changes to the global water cycle, relations between geology and biology, just to mention a few research areas that are reflected in our reportâs scientific questions. Such research is not only compelling, it is essential for our well-being here on Earth. As I write this, the committee is working on the final draft of the report during the coronavirus pandemic. Years ago, Dr. Rita Colwell and colleagues demonstrated how environmental processes helped spread the bacteria that caused cholera. Perhaps research that strengthens the connections between Earth sciences and human health may eventually help us to better understand the processes that spread other harmful pathogens. I was very pleased with how well the committee worked together and how seriously they took their task. There were of course disagreements at times on content, wording, and organization, although these discussions were always professional and with respect for other membersâ points of view. In addition, committee members were cognizant of their responsibility to represent the broader Earth science research community and paid close attention to input we received at meetings and from questionnaires, town halls, and listening sessions. There was the anticipated tension of trying to stay within the task guidance of working with a level EAR budget, and yet have the report reflect an optimistic view of the future. As one would expect, we likely erred a bit on the optimistic side. On behalf of the committee, I thank those who took the time to meet with the committee and to otherwise provide us with much needed information. Finally, a special thanks goes to the National Academies staff who worked to keep us on time and on message. Without that discipline, this report could not have been written in the time allowed. James A. Yoder, Chair Committee on Catalyzing Opportunities for Research in the Earth Sciences (CORES): A Decadal Survey for NSFâs Division of Earth Sciences Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. xi
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 11 NSF Directorate for Geosciences and Division of Earth Sciences, 14 Study Origin, 16 The Committee Process, 17 Previous Decadal Studies, 18 References, 20 2 SCIENCE PRIORITY QUESTIONS 21 Approach to Selecting Questions, 21 Science Priority Questions, 23 Research to Outreach, 57 Connecting the Science Questions to Infrastructure, 57 References, 57 3 INFRASTRUCTURE AND FACILITIES 69 Types of Infrastructure Discussed, 70 Current Infrastructure, 71 Relationship Between Current Infrastructure and the Science Priorities, 83 Evaluation, Assessment, and Prioritization of Facilities and Infrastructure, 85 Future Infrastructure Needs, 86 Recommendations for Possible New Initiatives, 94 Conclusions and Recommendations for Cyberinfrastructure and Human Infrastructure, 103 References, 108 4 PARTNERSHIPS 113 Partnerships with NSF, 114 Partnerships with Other Federal Agencies, 120 Concluding Thoughts, 126 References, 126 Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. xiii
5 A DECADAL VISION FOR EARTH SCIENCES 129 APPENDIXES A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff 131 B Community Input Questionnaire 139 C Open Session Agendas 141 D Current Research Infrastructure Provided by MultiâUser Facilities 147 Prepublication VersionâSubject to further editorial revision. xiv