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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25828.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS STRENGTHENING U.S. AIR FORCE HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT A FLIGHT PLAN FOR 2020–2030 Committee on Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management Board on Human-Systems Integration Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was funded from the U.S. Air Force executed via a subcontract from Infoscitex under prime Contract FA8650-14-D-6500. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25828 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management: A Flight Plan for 2020-2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25828. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS COMMITTEE ON STRENGTHENING U.S. AIR FORCE HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT JULIE J.C.H. RYAN (Co-Chair), Wyndrose Technical Group, Pasadena, MD WILLIAM J. STRICKLAND (Co-Chair), Independent Consultant, New Braunfels, TX TERRY A. ACKERMAN, University of Iowa DAVID S.C. CHU, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, VA LT. GEN. GINA M. GROSSO, USAF (Retired) BRIG. GEN. LEON A. JOHNSON, USAFR (Retired) JUDITH S. OLSON, University of California, Irvine DAN J. PUTKA, Human Resource Research Organization (HumRRO), Arlington, VA ALVIN E. ROTH, Stanford University ANN MARIE RYAN, Michigan State University STEPHEN STARK, University of South Florida CHERIE CHAUVIN, Study Director ELIZABETH T. CADY, Senior Program Officer DANIEL TALMAGE, Program Officer MARGARET KELLY, Sr. Program Assistant TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS BOARD ON HUMAN-SYSTEMS INTEGRATION FREDERICK L. OSWALD (Chair), Rice University, Houston, TX JAMES BAGIAN, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DIANA BURLEY, George Washington University, Washington, DC BARBARA DOSHER, University of California, Irvine MICA R. ENDSLEY, S.A. Technologies, Gold Canyon, AZ EDMOND ISRAELSKI, AbbVie, North Chicago, IL NAJMEDIN MESHKATI, University of Southern California EMILIE ROTH, Roth Cognitive Engineering, Stanford, CA WILLIAM J. STRICKLAND, Independent Consultant, New Braunfels, TX MATTHEW WEINGER, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN TOBY WARDEN, Board Director PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Preface In 2019, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) conduct a study to examine how to strengthen the USAF human capital management (HCM) system in support of optimal mission capability. Accordingly, the National Academies, under the auspices of its Board on Human-Systems Integration (BOHSI), established the Committee on Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management. Members of the inter-disciplinary committee were volunteers, appointed by the National Academies to represent relevant academic and other research areas and HCM practitioners, including experts in Department of Defense and USAF human capital. This report is the result of the work of that committee. Consistent with the study’s statement of task presented in Chapter 1, this report offers guidance to the Air Force on the future of its HCM system, including consideration of USAF human capital research, responsibilities, operations, policies, and procedures. The report culminates in a “Flight Plan” describing strategic outcomes and actions to be taken across all levels of the HCM system extending from the immediate to the long term (2030). The committee wishes to acknowledge the many contributors to this study, specifically those who participated in the committee’s numerous plenary meetings (in-person and virtual) and site visits. Special thanks are due to Ken Schwartz, Chief, Air Force Testing and Survey Policy, and Program Manager, Air Force Personnel Research, Accession and Training Management Division (AF/A1PT) who provided extensive subject matter expertise in addition to essential support in identifying and coordinating the participation of critical stakeholders and subject matter experts. In addition to the study’s project staff, the committee also benefited from contributions of National Academies staff and consultants: Monica Feit, Deputy Executive Director, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE); Kirsten Sampson Snyder, Director of Reports, DBASSE; Ellen Chou, Director, Air Force Studies Board (AFSB); Douglas Sprunger, Director Communications/Media; Kim DeRose, Communications Specialist; George Coyle, Sr. Program Officer, AFSB; Heather Kreidler, Consultant; and Laura Yoder, Consultant. Their contributions are greatly appreciated. The committee also wishes to note that this study’s data-gathering efforts were largely conducted prior to the onset of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), whereas the report was drafted and finalized during the pandemic. The unexpected circumstances are reflected in the committee’s consideration of the current and future workforce, as well as the external variables that may impact the Air Force’s ability to optimize mission effectiveness. Furthermore, restrictions on travel and group gatherings impacted the normal National Academies’ study process, whereby the committee’s final consensus deliberations and report development were conducted entirely virtually. The committee members and National Academies’ staff displayed PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS P-1

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS great dedication and perseverance to complete this study despite the unexpected circumstances. We wish to thank them, as well as the Air Force personnel and other subject matter experts, for their flexibility and willingness to participate, despite the many unexpected additional demands as a result of the pandemic. Julie J.C.H. Ryan, Co-Chair William J. Strickland, Co-Chair Cherie Chauvin, Study Director Committee on Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS P-2

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Winfred Arthur, Jr., Psychological and Brain Sciences, Texas A&M University Orley C. Ashenfelter, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Princeton University Charles Brown, Department of Economics, University of Michigan Michael L. Dominguez, Research Staff, Institute for Defense Analyses Mica R. Endsley, President, S.A. Technologies Annie Green, Artificial Intelligence Management Certificate, School of Continuing Studies, Georgetown University Christopher Nye, Department of Psychology, Michigan State University Frederick L. Oswald, Department of Psychology, Rice University Albert A. Robbert, Senior Researcher, The RAND Corporation Paul R. Sackett, Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert F. Sproull, (Retired Vice President and Director Oracle Labs), Adjunct Professor of Computer Science, University of Massachusetts at Amherst and Anita K. Jones, School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS P-3

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION Study Problem Statement 1-2 Statement of Task 1-3 Report Audience 1-4 The Committee’s Approach 1-5 Report Organization 1-7 2 OVERVIEW OF USAF HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Using a Causal Loop Model to Conceptualize the Ecosystem of Modern USAF Human Capital Management 2-2 The Map is Not the Territory 2-6 Future Shock 2-7 USAF Total Force 2-14 Historical Account of USAF Human Capital Research Organizations 2-16 Summary 2-18 3 EFFECTIVE HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS Ideal Attributes of a System 3-3 Best Practices or Best Fit 3-10 4 ENTRY POINT DECISIONS FOR AIR FORCE ACCESSIONS: RECRUITING, SELECTION, AND CLASSIFICATION Enlisted Accessions 4-1 Officer Accessions 4-6 Research Support for Air Force Accessions 4-9 Summary 4-29 5 FORCE DEVELOPMENT, UTILIZATION, AND RETENTION Force Development 5-2 Utilization 5-10 Retention 5-23 Research Support for Force Development, Utilization, and Retention 5-23 Summary 5-32 6 STRENGTHENING USAF HUMAN CAPITAL MANGEMENT: A FLIGHT PLAN FOR 2020–2030 Preparing Now for the Future 6-1 Strategic Approach to a Connected USAF HCM System 6-4 The Data Priority 6-6 The Airmen Priority 6-13 PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS TOC-1

PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS The Research Priority 6-18 Summary 6-23 APPENDIXES A Key Points from Strategic Guidance and Previous Studies B Using the USAF Human Capital Ecosystem Model to Reveal Consequences of Changes C U.S. Air Force Workforce Data D Preference-Informed Matching in Job Assignment E U.S. Air Force Competencies F Sample Career Field Education and Training Plans G Data-Gathering Sessions H Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff I Acronyms and Abbreviations PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS TOC-2

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The USAir Force human capital management (HCM) system is not easily defined or mapped. It affects virtually every part of the Air Force because workforce policies, procedures, and processes impact all offices and organizations that include Airmen and responsibilities and relationships change regularly. To ensure the readiness of Airmen to fulfill the mission of the Air Force, strategic approaches are developed and issued through guidance and actions of the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs.

Strengthening US Air Force Human Capital Management assesses and strengthens the various U.S. Air Force initiatives and programs working to improve person-job match and human capital management in coordinated support of optimal mission capability. This report considers the opportunities and challenges associated with related interests and needs across the USAF HCM system as a whole, and makes recommendations to inform improvements to USAF personnel selection and classification and other critical system components across career trajectories. Strengthening US Air Force Human Capital Management offers the Air Force a strategic approach, across a connected HCM system, to develop 21st century human capital capabilities essential for the success of 21st century Airmen.

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