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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
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6

Case Study: Los Angeles

Reiko Kerr, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), moderated a session examining how modeling informed resource planning and stakeholder engagement for a sweeping effort to shift buildings and vehicles to electric power while aggressively adopting renewables in Los Angeles, California. The speakers were James Barner and Jay Lim, both of LADWP; Jaquelin Cochran, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); and Frederick Pickel, Office of Public Accountability for the City of Los Angeles.

Kerr, senior assistant general manager of power system engineering, planning, and technical services, first gave a brief overview of the City of Los Angeles’s ambitious Green New Deal, an industry-leading step in municipal power planning. Its goal is to obtain 100 percent of the city’s power from renewable energy sources and full building and vehicle electrification by 2045. She also discussed LADWP’s shorter term challenges and efforts on Clean Grid LA to replace 1,660 megawatts of Los Angeles’s in-basin, once-through cooling, natural gas-fired generating units by 2030 with clean energy alternatives, upgrades to transmission, and distributed energy resources to meet local capacity and resiliency needs.

As LADWP approaches these goals, many modeling questions have arisen, such as: How will the city ensure affordability and equity? How will LADWP keep the grid resilient and reliable? What is the best way to plan for wildfires or climate change? And, how can LADWP actively engage and empower its customers? The Green New Deal must also account for today’s rapidly changing challenges and opportunities, Kerr said.

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

Speakers discussed the significant challenges LADWP has faced in this ambitious undertaking and drew broader lessons that may be applicable to other utilities.

JAMES BARNER, LOS ANGELES DEPARTMENT OF WATER AND POWER

Barner, assistant director of the Clean Grid LA Strategy Division at LADWP, presented an overview of the process of stakeholder engagement and resource planning that LADWP uses to work toward its far-reaching clean energy goals. LADWP is the largest publicly owned utility company in the nation, and has supplied Los Angeles with water and power for more than 100 years. It is a vertically integrated utility that encompasses generation, transmission, and distribution with a varied resource stack that includes natural gas, hydroelectric, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy sources, 50 percent of which is zero-emission.

LADWP plans for its energy generation to be coal-free by 2026 and 100 percent zero-carbon emission by 2045 (Figure 6.1). Significant progress toward these goals has been achieved through a range of policies, including aggressive adoption of renewables, a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program, and efforts to incentivize vehicle electrification.

An approach known as integrated resource planning (IRP) has been a critical component of this progress, Barner said. To support this process,

Image
FIGURE 6.1 Projected changes in Los Angeles’s resource mix. SOURCE: Courtesy of James Barner, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.
Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

an IRP Advisory Group gathers stakeholder input, reviews assumptions and load forecasts, and determines strategic case alternatives on an annual basis. This involves a collaborative, multistep process of refining assumptions, generating model outputs and sharing them with stakeholders, synthesizing feedback, and developing recommendations.

Upon the adoption of Los Angeles’s Green New Deal in 2019, LADWP changed tack and established the Clean Grid LA Steering Committee to lead a second phase of planning. The committee is now working to expand on the recommendations from the IRP process to map a 30-year plan to achieve 100 percent renewables. This Strategic Long-Term Resource Plan, which will cover the full spectrum from generation to transmission to distribution, is slated for release in 2021. Barner noted that continued rapid growth in the region served by LADWP makes the 100 percent renewables target an exceptionally ambitious goal. “It’s not only just getting to 100 percent of our total sales, but also getting to 100 percent while our load is doubling,” said Barner.

JAY LIM, LOS ANGELES DEPARTMENT OF WATER AND POWER

Lim, LADWP’s IRP manager, talked about how LADWP uses distribution resource plans (DRPs) to determine current and future customer needs. Thirty years ago, growth plans focused largely on assessing the need for new power plants to meet load growth. Today, he said, the situation is much more complex, where load growth has been flat and technologies shifting. LADWP collaborates with multiple groups to understand how growth, rate impacts, vehicle electrification, and distribution planning will impact visibility, dispatchability, and customer participation across the entire system. “Our resource planning is really evolving in that we traditionally looked at one-way power flows,” Lim said. “Now, we have evolved to looking at two-way power flows, where energy storage serves as both load as well as a resource.”

Similar to the IRP process, LADWP has taken a holistic, systems-level approach in its DRP process, with an overall goal of leveraging distributed energy resources (DERs) to minimize distribution overloads, increase system efficiency, and achieve optimal DER deployment. Effective and efficient deployment of DERs also helps to improve grid resiliency, which is crucial for dealing with extreme events such as the wildfire challenges that California has faced, Lim noted.

A key challenge is determining the best location for DERs across such a large system. To address this need, LADWP partnered with NREL to create a DRP modeling framework that consists of distribution load-flow models, location benefit tools, and internal tools altered for improved long-term projections for analyzing customer adoption and distribution

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

load flow impacts. The framework, expected to be finalized in May 2020, will be used to guide long-term DER location and deployment.

A variety of studies and models are being used to inform these efforts. A DER Integration Study, for example, offered insights on how uncontrolled DER adoption might play out as compared with a more managed approach (Figure 6.2). The analysis suggested that managed growth would result in more sustainable peak-day use patterns and lower customer rates. In addition, Lim described analyses of feeder overloads, such as during peak summer months, which suggest that a nonwire alternative (NWA) approach may be optimal when solar is coupled with energy storage. “If we were able to target these [peak] hours with distributed energy resources, we could potentially alleviate that feeder overload without upgrading the feeder and defer our distribution upgrades,” Lim said.

Another important facet to address is social and environmental equity issues, which are especially relevant in the context of a publicly owned utility, Lim said. For example, because low-income communities are less likely to install DERs, they were identified as important targets for managed DER installation.

JAQUELIN COCHRAN, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

Cochran manages NREL’s Grid Systems group and serves as project manager of the LADWP’s 100 percent renewable energy study, known as LA100. LA100’s main objective is to identify the pathways and costs

Image
FIGURE 6.2 LADWP’s modeling suggested that managed DER growth would result in more sustainable peak-day use patterns and lower customer rates than uncontrolled DER growth. SOURCE: Courtesy of Jay Lim, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.
Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

necessary to reach LADWP’s IRP-recommended case, described by Barner, of 100 percent renewable energy by 2045. LA100 is also investigating environmental and economic impacts and the role of environmental justice and consumer advocacy groups.

LA100 incorporates the entirety of power system planning with holistically integrated models that include everything from bottom-up load modeling to bulk power investments, DERs, air quality, rate impacts, and environmental justice. An advisory group, consisting of representatives from environmental groups, academics, neighborhood councils, city governments, businesses, and utilities, meets quarterly to review progress and provide input.

Cochran outlined four major questions guiding the effort: What is the demand and supply? What does LADWP build? How can we confirm the results are correct? And last, what are the broader impacts? Modeling has been crucial to addressing these questions by generating multiple scenarios (Figure 6.3), which are presented to stakeholders to inform a common understanding of options, potential trade-offs, and uncertainties. NREL, retaining its emphasis on objective, transparent, stakeholder-based analysis, presents these model outputs but does not suggest or recommend policies, Cochran noted.

LA100 is a complex and challenging effort requiring careful model integration, data exchange, and validation (Figure 6.4). In addition to the challenge of finding solutions to achieve an incredibly ambitious power generation goal, the team has faced significant difficulty in bringing the right data and models into play and ensuring that the models function correctly. This enormous undertaking has required several new models and existing modeling integrations, deemphasizing hosting capacity analyses in favor of a holistic, integrated view. “How do you have all these different models talk to each other, talk to each other on time, and talk to each other while validating that you don’t have any data errors?” Cochran posited. The load modeling alone produced 50 terabytes of data. Modifying the capacity expansion model to accurately measure resource adequacy at 100 percent renewables presented another challenge.

The outputs suggest that achieving 100 percent renewable generation will likely require large amounts of new generation and storage, curtailment for excess capacity, dynamic and energy-efficient loading, and distribution and transmission updates to create a stronger network. Particular challenges include planning for peak periods that exhaust renewable sources and storage; extended transmission outages due to wildfires or maintenance issues; or days with unusually low solar and wind output. Ensuring reliable power generation in such cases poses trade-offs and requires creative solutions, Cochran noted. For example, options may include keeping natural gas facilities functional on an as-needed basis,

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
Image
FIGURE 6.3 LA100 assessed and compared multiple scenarios to inform a common understanding of options, potential trade-offs, and uncertainties. SOURCE: Courtesy of Jaquelin Cochran, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
Image
FIGURE 6.4 Complexity of modeling integration and data exchange among models used in LA100. SOURCE: Courtesy of Jaquelin Cochran, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

allowing biofuel generation inside the city, or investing in storage technologies that may not yet be economical on a broad scale but could be feasible for bridging the final 5-10 percent gap to achieve 100 percent renewables.

FREDERICK PICKEL, CITY OF LOS ANGELES

Pickel, ratepayer advocate and executive director of the City of Los Angeles Office of Public Accountability, discussed lessons from LA100 and previous studies in this space. Examining the projections of past planners underscores how difficult it is to anticipate future developments, he said, noting that utilities 25 years ago were focused on fossil fuel prices, deregulation, and commercial risks, while utilities 50 years ago were focused on the impacts of widespread adoption of nuclear power. Today’s landscape is drastically different from what these planners would have envisioned.

In order for LADWP’s long-term modeling to be relevant now and in the future, he said, it must recognize the limitations of models. Even if

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

they incorporate a high degree of important detail about a vast array of items, they can nevertheless miss unanticipated changes to the system. Current models must consider appropriate time scales, including seasonal and multiyear representations; new investments in thermal generation, renewables, and hydrologic generation; potential storage assets and new DER linkages; and contingency planning for both slow- and fast-moving events such as earthquakes, climate change, and technological innovations. While a great deal of information is needed for models, correctly depicting the uncertainties and the complexity is valuable when communicating results to decision makers.

This perspective can be illustrated by Pickel’s work on the Once-Through Cooling (OTC) Study, which aimed to guide LADWP’s choices about a mix of resources with less carbon emissions. The study relied on complex modeling to evaluate a host of alternative generation resources, and rank which mix of generating resources was the most efficient, using a net present value (NPV) metric. However, as can be seen in the changing position of the dotted baseline in Figure 6.5, the lowest NPV changes with the assumptions made about the cost of carbon over time. Complex studies like OTC and LA100, Pickel concluded, present a twofold challenge: the complicated modeling required to calculate each scenario, and the difficulty of presenting the scenarios to decision makers in a useful and comprehensible way.

Image
FIGURE 6.5 Carbon cost analysis from LADWP’s Once-Through Cooling Study. SOURCE: Courtesy of Frederick Pickel, City of Los Angeles Office of Public Accountability.

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

DISCUSSION

After the speakers’ remarks, Kerr moderated an open discussion that focused on how goals are defined, the challenges of modeling for uncertainties, and flexibility in modeling.

Defining Goals

A participant asked the speakers to address how a goal of “100 percent renewable” and a goal of “zero carbon dioxide emissions” might lead to different solutions. Cochran answered that these goals overlap in different ways for different scenarios. One scenario may allow for limited use of nonrenewable methods during periods of unusual demand or losses, while a scenario that emphasizes public health does not allow any combustion, including biofuels. She reiterated that LA100 produces models to address stakeholder questions, but leaves the value judgments (e.g., environmental and economic prioritization) up to the stakeholders.

Modeling for Uncertainties

Another participant asked the speakers to address modeling in the face of uncertainties. Barner replied that uncertainties require a cautious and careful valuation of resources, beyond just economic factors. For example, renewables are modeled to include variation in storage needs and costs, and transmission planning must be done on the scale of decades, not just years, to account for increased capacity. Cochran added that LA100 explains to the public that uncertainties exist in the balance between cost, percentage of renewable sources, locations, and rates.

Lim noted that modeling uncertainty requires identifying potential load increases and their implications. Also, renewable resources can be intermittent, and achieving 100 percent will require more robust models that can include weather variability. Cochran agreed that weather modeling must be as robust as possible.

Another speaker stressed that whatever the challenges or uncertainties are, they must be communicated clearly so that stakeholders understand the necessary complexities. For example, power flow modeling uncertainties stem from local geography, weather, and climate, which in turn affect the distribution and transmission grid. These and other challenges continually arise and must be communicated and addressed.

Flexibility in Modeling

A participant asked how flexibility is incorporated into models that must adapt to changes, respond to stakeholders, and create relevant

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

output: “How do you develop a modeling framework that is flexible enough to adapt to changes in your options and changes in stakeholder needs while still providing the amount of detail that you’re imposing for a lot of these different components of the system?” Cochran replied that to stay flexible, LA100 models with generalities instead of specific technologies, such as storage volume but not method, a strategy that enables flexibility as new technologies emerge.

Barner said that his team also incorporates flexibility into models by using generalities and placeholders, especially for longer time periods. LADWP communicates those generalities transparently to emphasize that no model can predict the future, but instead only creates pathways to it. “We always talk about our planning as being like a trajectory or a compass that gets us to our location,” he said. “It’s not a GPS that tells you the exact location of where to go.” A continuous planning process that updates annually also enables flexibility by allowing models to be frequently adjusted, he added.

Another participant asked if going down certain paths reduces future flexibility or increases future costs. Kerr answered that Los Angeles was faced with that question when the Barren Ridge Renewable Transmission Corridor was first proposed. Despite the uncertainties and high cost, it was built, and has proved its value for enhancing solar generation.

Given that starting down a particular path may close doors to other paths, Barner noted that it is useful to think in terms of what actions are most likely to bring benefits in line with overarching future goals. “We look at ‘no regret scenarios’—what can we do [that] we wouldn’t regret it in the future?” he said. Using that mindset, he suggested, helps utilities to identify and prioritize actions that will position them well for envisioned next steps.

Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×

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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
Page 58
Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
Page 59
Suggested Citation:"6 Case Study: Los Angeles." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25880.
×
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Providing a reliable and resilient supply of electric power to communities across the United States has always posed a complex challenge. Utilities must support daily operations to serve a diverse array of customers across a heterogeneous landscape while simultaneously investing in infrastructure to meet future needs, all while juggling an enormous array of competing priorities influenced by costs, capabilities, environmental and social impacts, regulatory requirements, and consumer preferences. A rapid pace of change in technologies, policies and priorities, and consumer needs and behaviors has further compounded this challenge in recent years.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on February 3, 2020 to explore strategies for incorporating new technologies, planning and operating strategies, business models, and architectures in the U.S. electric power system. Speakers and participants from industry, government, and academia discussed available models for long-term transmission and distribution planning, as well as the broader context of how these models are used and future opportunities and needs. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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