MODELS TO INFORM PLANNING
FOR THE FUTURE OF
ELECTRIC POWER IN THE UNITED STATES
PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
Anne Frances Johnson, Rapporteur
Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S.
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by Contract/Grant No. DE-EP000006/89303018FOE400001 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68096-7
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68096-4
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25880
This publication is available in limited quantities from:
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001
bees@nas.edu
http://www.sites.nationalacademies.org/DEPS/BEES
Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25880.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.
Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE U.S.
M. GRANGER MORGAN, NAS,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair
ANURADHA M. ANNASWAMY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ANJAN BOSE, NAE,2 Washington State University
TERRY BOSTON, NAE, Terry Boston, LLC
KAREN BUTLER-PURRY, Texas A&M University
JEFFERY DAGLE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
DEEPAKRAJ M. DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology
MICHAEL HOWARD, Electric Power Research Institute
CYNTHIA HSU, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association
REIKO KERR, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
NANCY LANGE, MISO Board of Directors
KAREN L. PALMER, Resources for the Future
H. VINCENT POOR, NAE/NAS, Princeton University
WILLIAM H. SANDERS, Carnegie Mellon University
SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group
DAVID G. VICTOR, University of California, San Diego
ELIZABETH J. WILSON, Dartmouth College
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Director and Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer
BRENT HEARD, Associate Program Officer
KASIA KORNECKI, Associate Program Officer
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager
MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFELD, Research Associate
REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
JARED COHON, NAE,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair
VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises, LLC
W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, Terry Boston, LLC
DEEPAKRAJ M. DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology
MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University
NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures
DENISE GRAY, LG Chem Michigan, Inc.
JOHN KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University
DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University
JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc.
ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission (Retired)
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Director and Scholar
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Scientist
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer
BRENT HEARD, Associate Program Officer
KASIA KORNECKI, Associate Program Officer
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager
MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFELD, Research Associate
REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Robert Thomas, Cornell University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.
This page intentionally left blank.
Contents
2 MODELING THE ELECTRIC SYSTEM: APPROACHES AND CHALLENGES
3 MODELS FOR LONG-TERM PLANNING
David Daniels, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Daniel Shawhan, Resources for the Future
John Bistline, Electric Power Research Institute
Bethany Frew, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
4 MODELS FOR TRANSMISSION PLANNING
Joseph Eto, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Tom Overbye, Texas A&M University and PowerWorld Corporation
Douglas Welsh, General Electric
Branden Sudduth, Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Amos Ang, Southern California Edison
5 MODELS FOR DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PLANNING
Jason Fuller, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Roger Dugan, Electric Power Research Institute
Aleksi Paaso, Commonwealth Edison
Colton Ching, Hawaiian Electric
James Barner, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
Jay Lim, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
Jaquelin Cochran, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Frederick Pickel, City of Los Angeles
