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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Heising-Simons Foundation, Quadrivium Foundation, Gates Ventures, ClearPath Foundation, and Incite Labs, with support from the National Academy of Sciences Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund, and National Academy of Sciences Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25932 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2021 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25932. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES: TECHNOLOGY, POLICY, AND SOCIETAL DIMENSIONS STEPHEN W. PACALA, NAS,1 Princeton University, Chair COLIN CUNLIFF, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation DANIELLE DEANE-RYAN, Libra Foundation KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University Fletcher School JULIA HAGGERTY, Montana State University, Bozeman CHRISTOPHER T. HENDRICKSON, NAE,2 Carnegie Mellon University JESSE D. JENKINS, Princeton University ROXANNE JOHNSON, BlueGreen Alliance TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology VIVIAN LOFTNESS, Carnegie Mellon University CLARK A. MILLER, Arizona State University, Tempe WILLIAM A. PIZER, Duke University VARUN RAI, University of Texas, Austin ED RIGHTOR, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy ESTHER TAKEUCHI, NAE, Stony Brook University SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group JENNIFER WILCOX, Worcester Polytechnic Institute Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director, Board Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems BRENT HEARD, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems KASIA KORNECKI, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Business Partner, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems CYNDI TRANG, Research Associate, Board on Health Care Services RANDY ATKINS, Director, Communications/Media, National Academy of Engineering (until July 2020) JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society MICAH HIMMEL, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board DAVID BUTLER, Holloman Scholar, National Academy of Engineering NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Conflict(s) of Interest. 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS JARED COHON, NAE,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises CARLA BAILO, Center for Automotive Research W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, GridLiance GP, LLC, and Grid Protection Alliance DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University Fletcher School T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJ Glauthier Associates, LLC NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures DENISE GRAY, LG Chem Michigan, Inc. JOHN KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired) ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission (former) Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Director/Scholar ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer BRENT HEARD, Associate Program Officer KASIA KORNECKI, Associate Program Officer CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Scientist 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Preface Over the past two decades, increased understanding of the severity of impending climate change has coincided with rapid development of non-emitting energy technologies, including significant reductions in their costs. As a result, many nations, states, cities, and companies have recently indicated goals and are developing plans to transition to an energy system that emits zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), usually by midcentury. This timetable would allow the transition to take advantage of the natural turnover of long-lived capital stock (i.e., the 30-year lifetime of a gas power plant) and is consistent, if adopted globally, with limiting the global temperature increase to substantially less than 2 degrees Celsius. Because the energy system impacts so many aspects of society, a transition to net zero would have profound implications well beyond climate and energy, including economic competitiveness, increased employment, and improved human health. If done right, a transition to net zero might provide more and better-quality jobs, and economic benefits that exceed costs. A transition might also provide an opportunity to eliminate injustices that permeate our current energy system, such as the disproportionate exposure of historically marginalized groups to toxic fossil pollutants. Public support for a decades-long transition could be maintained only by fairly distributing benefits and costs. Against this backdrop, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine appointed an ad hoc consensus committee to assess the technological, policy, and social dimensions to accelerate the deep decarbonization of the U.S. economy and recommend research and policy actions in the near to midterm. This interim report focuses on the first 10 years of a 30-year effort—a comprehensive report covering the final two decades will follow in a year. In this interim report, the committee identifies technological actions required during the 2020s to put the United States on a trajectory to net zero by midcentury while still maintaining optionality. Most importantly, the interim report provides a manual for the federal policies needed to enable these technological actions and to build a non-emitting energy system that will strengthen the U.S. economy, promote equity and inclusion, and support communities, businesses, and workers. The broad scope of this study required a cross-sector analysis and a committee with expertise spanning energy technologies, economics, social sciences, environmental justice, and policy analysis. The committee worked to produce the interim report from March to October 2020, including innumerable subgroup discussions and three full committee meetings. I would like to thank the committee members for giving so freely of their time, effort, and expertise, especially under the extraordinary circumstances imposed by SARS-CoV-2. Despite a tight timeline and the immensity of the task, the committee members maintained disciplinary rigor while remaining exemplars of interdisciplinary respect. Thanks also to the staff of the National Academies who worked tirelessly to organize us, improve our writing, and help us crystalize our thoughts. Stephen Pacala, Chair Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technological, Policy, and Societal Dimensions PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Joseph Aldy, Harvard University Kathleen Araújo, Boise State University Greg Bertelsen, Climate Leadership Council Mijin Cha, Occidental College David L. Green, University of Tennessee Diana Hernandez, Columbia University Holmes Hummel, Clean Energy Works Noah Kaufman, Columbia University Kate Konschnik, Duke University Christopher A. McLean, U.S. Department of Agriculture Franklin M. Orr, Jr., Stanford University John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology José G. Santiesteban, NAE,1 ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company Emily Schapira, Philadelphia Energy Authority Kumares C. Sinha, NAE, Purdue University Addison K. Stark, Bipartisan Policy Center Nicole Systrom, Sutro Energy Group Cynthia Winland, Just Transitions Fund Eli Yablonovitch, NAS2/NAE, University of California, Berkeley Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Cherry Murray, Harvard University, and Dan Arvizu, New Mexico State University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 SUMMARY 3 1 MOTIVATION TO ACCELERATE DEEP DECARBONIZATION 25 Introduction, 25 Committee’s Approach to the Task Statement, 26 Perspectives on the Net-Zero Problem, 28 Economics, 28 Equity and Fairness, 29 Energy Technology, 30 Energy Policy, 32 Road Map to the Rest of the Report, 34 References, 37 2 OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEEP DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED 40 STATES, 2021−2030 Introduction, 40 Lessons from Deep Decarbonization Studies and the History of Energy Innovation, 43 The First 10 Years: Five Critical Actions, 52 Impact on U.S. Energy Expenditures in the 2020s, 60 Mobilizing Capital Investment in the 2020s, 61 Implications by Sector, 68 Conclusion, 83 References, 83 3 TO WHAT END: SOCIETAL GOALS FOR DEEP DECARBONIZATION 91 Introduction, 91 A Social Contract for Decarbonization, 93 Leveraging Deep Decarbonization for Economic and Social Innovation, 99 Strengthen the U.S. Economy, 100 Promote Equity and Inclusion, 104 Support Communities, Businesses, and Workers Directly Affected by Transition, 108 Maximize Cost-Effectiveness, 113 References, 116 4 HOW TO ACHIEVE DEEP DECARBONIZATION 125 Introduction, 125 Establishing the U.S. Commitment to a Rapid, Just, and Equitable Transition to a Net- Zero Carbon Economy, 139 A Greenhouse Gas Budget for the U.S. Economy, 139 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi

A Price on Carbon with Appropriate Measures to Address Competitiveness and Equity, 140 An Equity and Social Justice Framework, 142 A New Social Contract to Mitigate Harm and Expand Economic Opportunities for Impacted Communities, 144 Setting Rules and Standards to Accelerate the Formation of Markets for Clean Energy That Work for All, 146 A Clean Energy Standard for the Electricity Sector, 146 Electrification and Efficiency Standards for Vehicles, Appliances, and Buildings, 147 Improved Regulation and Design of Power Markets for Clean Electricity, 150 Labor Standards for Clean Energy Work, 152 Standards for Corporate Reporting, 153 U.S. Government Procurement Policy and Domestic Clean Energy Markets, 154 Investing in a Net-Zero U.S. Energy Future, 156 Creation of a Green Bank, 156 Invest in New Infrastructure, 158 Invest in Educational Programs for a Clean Energy Workforce, 164 Invest in a Revitalized Manufacturing Sector, 167 Invest in Research, Development, and Demonstration for Technology Innovation and Deployment and Research on Social and Economic Impacts, 168 Invest in Efficiency Improvements for Low-Income Households Through Program Redesign and Expanded Funding, 171 Invest in Electrification of Tribal Lands, 172 Strengthening the U.S. Capacity to Effectively and Equitably Transition to a Clean Energy Future, 173 References, 176 APPENDIXES A Committee Biographical Information 191 B Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflicts of Interest 197 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xii

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The world is transforming its energy system from one dominated by fossil fuel combustion to one with net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary anthropogenic greenhouse gas. This energy transition is critical to mitigating climate change, protecting human health, and revitalizing the U.S. economy. To help policymakers, businesses, communities, and the public better understand what a net-zero transition would mean for the United States, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine convened a committee of experts to investigate how the U.S. could best decarbonize its transportation, electricity, buildings, and industrial sectors.

This report, Accelerating Decarbonization of the United States Energy System, identifies key technological and socio-economic goals that must be achieved to put the United States on the path to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The report presents a policy blueprint outlining critical near-term actions for the first decade (2021-2030) of this 30-year effort, including ways to support communities that will be most impacted by the transition.

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