National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION
OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM

Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Consensus Study Report of

images

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Heising-Simons Foundation, Quadrivium Foundation, Gates Ventures, ClearPath Foundation, and Incite Labs, with support from the National Academy of Sciences Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund, and National Academy of Sciences Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68292-3

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68292-4

Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25932

Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2021 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25932.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

Image

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

Image

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

COMMITTEE ON ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES: TECHNOLOGY, POLICY, AND SOCIETAL DIMENSIONS

STEPHEN W. PACALA, NAS,1 Princeton University, Chair

COLIN CUNLIFF, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

DANIELLE DEANE-RYAN, Libra Foundation

KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University Fletcher School

JULIA HAGGERTY, Montana State University, Bozeman

CHRIS T. HENDRICKSON, NAE,2 Carnegie Mellon University

JESSE D. JENKINS, Princeton University

ROXANNE JOHNSON, BlueGreen Alliance

TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology

VIVIAN LOFTNESS, Carnegie Mellon University

CLARK A. MILLER, Arizona State University

WILLIAM A. PIZER, Duke University

VARUN RAI, University of Texas, Austin

ED RIGHTOR, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

ESTHER TAKEUCHI, NAE, Stony Brook University

SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group

JENNIFER WILCOX,3 Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Staff

K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director, Board Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

BRENT HEARD, Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Conflict(s) of Interest.

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

3 Resigned January 2021.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Business Partner, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society

CYNDI TRANG, Research Associate, Board on Health Care Services

RANDY ATKINS, Director, Communications/Media, National Academy of Engineering (until July 2020)

MICAH HIMMEL, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board

DAVID BUTLER, Holloman Scholar, National Academy of Engineering

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

JARED COHON, NAE,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair

VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises

CARLA BAILO, Center for Automotive Research

W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, GridLiance GP, LLC, and Grid Protection Alliance

DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology

MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE

KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University Fletcher School

T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJ Glauthier Associates, LLC

NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures

DENISE GRAY, LG Chem Michigan, Inc.

JOHN KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University

DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University

JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company

ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired)

ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission (former)

Staff

K. JOHN HOLMES, Director/Scholar

ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director

BRENT HEARD, Program Officer

KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer

CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer

MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate

REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant

HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager

JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Scientist

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY

KRISTIE LEE EBI, University of Washington, Chair

HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University

LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado, Boulder

KATHARINE JACOBS, University of Arizona

MICHAEL A. MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine

RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future

ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington

MAXINE SAVITZ, NAE,1 Honeywell, Inc. (former)

MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University

JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC

CATHY WHITLOCK, NAS,2 Montana State University

ROBYN S. WILSON, Ohio State University

Staff

TOBY WARDEN, Director

JENELL M. WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer

TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator

ADAM JONES, Senior Program Assistant

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

Preface

Over the past two decades, increased understanding of the severity of impending climate change has coincided with rapid development of non-emitting energy technologies, including significant reductions in their costs. As a result, many nations, states, cities, and companies have recently indicated goals and are developing plans to transition to an energy system that emits zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), usually by midcentury. This timetable would allow the transition to take advantage of the natural turnover of long-lived capital stock (i.e., the 30-year lifetime of a gas power plant) and is consistent, if adopted globally, with limiting the global temperature increase to substantially less than 2 degrees Celsius.

Because the energy system impacts so many aspects of society, a transition to net zero would have profound implications well beyond climate and energy, including economic competitiveness, increased employment, and improved human health. If done right, a transition to net zero might provide more and better-quality jobs and economic benefits that exceed costs. A transition might also provide an opportunity to eliminate injustices that permeate our current energy system, such as the disproportionate exposure of historically marginalized groups to toxic fossil pollutants. Public support for a decades-long transition could be maintained only by fairly distributing benefits and costs.

Against this backdrop, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine appointed an ad hoc consensus committee to assess the technological, policy, and social dimensions to accelerate the deep decarbonization of the U.S. economy and recommend research and policy actions in the near to midterm. This interim report focuses on the first 10 years of a 30-year effort—a comprehensive report covering the final two decades will follow in a year. In this interim report, the committee identifies technological actions required during the 2020s to put the United States on a trajectory to net zero by midcentury while still maintaining optionality. Most importantly, the interim report provides a manual for the federal policies needed to enable these technological actions and to build a non-emitting energy system that will strengthen the U.S. economy, promote equity and inclusion, and support communities, businesses, and workers.

The broad scope of this study required a cross-sector analysis and a committee with expertise spanning energy technologies, economics, social sciences, environmental

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

justice, and policy analysis. The committee worked to produce the interim report from March to October 2020, including innumerable subgroup discussions and three full committee meetings. I would like to thank the committee members for giving so freely of their time, effort, and expertise, especially under the extraordinary circumstances imposed by SARS-CoV-2. Despite a tight timeline and the immensity of the task, the committee members maintained disciplinary rigor while remaining exemplars of interdisciplinary respect. Thanks also to the staff of the National Academies who worked tirelessly to organize us, improve our writing, and help us crystalize our thoughts.

Stephen Pacala, Chair
Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technological, Policy, and Societal Dimensions

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Kathleen Araújo, Boise State University

Greg Bertelsen, Climate Leadership Council

Mijin Cha, Occidental College

David L. Greene, University of Tennessee

Noah Kaufman, Columbia University

Kate Konschnik, Duke University

Christopher A. McLean, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Franklin M. Orr, Jr., Stanford University

John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

José G. Santiesteban, NAE,1 ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company

Emily Schapira, Philadelphia Energy Authority

Kumares C. Sinha, NAE, Purdue University

Addison K. Stark, Bipartisan Policy Center

Nicole Systrom, Sutro Energy Group

Cynthia Winland, Just Transitions Fund

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Cherry A. Murray, NAS2/NAE, University of Arizona, and Dan E. Arvizu, NAE, New Mexico State University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

___________________

2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×

4 How to Achieve Deep Decarbonization

Introduction

Establishing the U.S. Commitment to a Rapid, Just, and Equitable Transition to a Net-Zero Carbon Economy

A Greenhouse Gas Budget for the U.S. Economy

A Price on Carbon with Appropriate Measures to Address Competitiveness and Equity

An Equity and Social Justice Framework

A New Social Contract to Mitigate Harm and Expand Economic Opportunities for Impacted Communities

Setting Rules and Standards to Accelerate the Formation of Markets for Clean Energy That Work for All

A Clean Energy Standard for Electricity

Electrification and Efficiency Standards for Vehicles, Appliances, and Buildings

Improved Regulation and Design of Power Markets for Clean Electricity

Labor Standards for Clean Energy Work

Standards for Corporate Reporting

U.S. Government Procurement Policy and Domestic Clean Energy Markets

Investing in a Net-Zero U.S. Energy Future

Creation of a Green Bank

Invest in New Infrastructure

Invest in Educational Programs for a Clean Energy Workforce

Invest in a Revitalized Manufacturing Sector

Invest in Research, Development, and Demonstration for Technology Innovation and Deployment and Research on Social and Economic Impacts

Invest in Efficiency Improvements for Low-Income Households Through Program Redesign and Expanded Funding

Invest in Electrification of Tribal Lands

Strengthening the U.S. Capacity to Effectively and Equitably Transition to a Clean Energy Future

References

APPENDIXES

A Committee Biographical Information

B Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflicts of Interest

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R1
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R2
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R3
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R4
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R5
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R12
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R13
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25932.
×
Page R14
Next: Executive Summary »
Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $78.00 Buy Ebook | $64.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

The world is transforming its energy system from one dominated by fossil fuel combustion to one with net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary anthropogenic greenhouse gas. This energy transition is critical to mitigating climate change, protecting human health, and revitalizing the U.S. economy. To help policymakers, businesses, communities, and the public better understand what a net-zero transition would mean for the United States, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine convened a committee of experts to investigate how the U.S. could best decarbonize its transportation, electricity, buildings, and industrial sectors.

This report, Accelerating Decarbonization of the United States Energy System, identifies key technological and socio-economic goals that must be achieved to put the United States on the path to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The report presents a policy blueprint outlining critical near-term actions for the first decade (2021-2030) of this 30-year effort, including ways to support communities that will be most impacted by the transition.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!