ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION
OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This activity was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Heising-Simons Foundation, Quadrivium Foundation, Gates Ventures, ClearPath Foundation, and Incite Labs, with support from the National Academy of Sciences Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund, and National Academy of Sciences Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68292-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68292-4
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25932
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25932.
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COMMITTEE ON ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES: TECHNOLOGY, POLICY, AND SOCIETAL DIMENSIONS
STEPHEN W. PACALA, NAS,1 Princeton University, Chair
COLIN CUNLIFF, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
DANIELLE DEANE-RYAN, Libra Foundation
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University Fletcher School
JULIA HAGGERTY, Montana State University, Bozeman
CHRIS T. HENDRICKSON, NAE,2 Carnegie Mellon University
JESSE D. JENKINS, Princeton University
ROXANNE JOHNSON, BlueGreen Alliance
TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology
VIVIAN LOFTNESS, Carnegie Mellon University
CLARK A. MILLER, Arizona State University
WILLIAM A. PIZER, Duke University
VARUN RAI, University of Texas, Austin
ED RIGHTOR, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
ESTHER TAKEUCHI, NAE, Stony Brook University
SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group
JENNIFER WILCOX,3 Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director, Board Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
BRENT HEARD, Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Conflict(s) of Interest.
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
3 Resigned January 2021.
MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Business Partner, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society
CYNDI TRANG, Research Associate, Board on Health Care Services
RANDY ATKINS, Director, Communications/Media, National Academy of Engineering (until July 2020)
MICAH HIMMEL, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board
DAVID BUTLER, Holloman Scholar, National Academy of Engineering
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
JARED COHON, NAE,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair
VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises
CARLA BAILO, Center for Automotive Research
W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, GridLiance GP, LLC, and Grid Protection Alliance
DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology
MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University Fletcher School
T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJ Glauthier Associates, LLC
NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures
DENISE GRAY, LG Chem Michigan, Inc.
JOHN KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University
DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University
JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired)
ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission (former)
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Director/Scholar
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director
BRENT HEARD, Program Officer
KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer
CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer
MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate
REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Scientist
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
KRISTIE LEE EBI, University of Washington, Chair
HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University
LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado, Boulder
KATHARINE JACOBS, University of Arizona
MICHAEL A. MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine
RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future
ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington
MAXINE SAVITZ, NAE,1 Honeywell, Inc. (former)
MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University
JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC
CATHY WHITLOCK, NAS,2 Montana State University
ROBYN S. WILSON, Ohio State University
Staff
TOBY WARDEN, Director
JENELL M. WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer
TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator
ADAM JONES, Senior Program Assistant
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
Preface
Over the past two decades, increased understanding of the severity of impending climate change has coincided with rapid development of non-emitting energy technologies, including significant reductions in their costs. As a result, many nations, states, cities, and companies have recently indicated goals and are developing plans to transition to an energy system that emits zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), usually by midcentury. This timetable would allow the transition to take advantage of the natural turnover of long-lived capital stock (i.e., the 30-year lifetime of a gas power plant) and is consistent, if adopted globally, with limiting the global temperature increase to substantially less than 2 degrees Celsius.
Because the energy system impacts so many aspects of society, a transition to net zero would have profound implications well beyond climate and energy, including economic competitiveness, increased employment, and improved human health. If done right, a transition to net zero might provide more and better-quality jobs and economic benefits that exceed costs. A transition might also provide an opportunity to eliminate injustices that permeate our current energy system, such as the disproportionate exposure of historically marginalized groups to toxic fossil pollutants. Public support for a decades-long transition could be maintained only by fairly distributing benefits and costs.
Against this backdrop, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine appointed an ad hoc consensus committee to assess the technological, policy, and social dimensions to accelerate the deep decarbonization of the U.S. economy and recommend research and policy actions in the near to midterm. This interim report focuses on the first 10 years of a 30-year effort—a comprehensive report covering the final two decades will follow in a year. In this interim report, the committee identifies technological actions required during the 2020s to put the United States on a trajectory to net zero by midcentury while still maintaining optionality. Most importantly, the interim report provides a manual for the federal policies needed to enable these technological actions and to build a non-emitting energy system that will strengthen the U.S. economy, promote equity and inclusion, and support communities, businesses, and workers.
The broad scope of this study required a cross-sector analysis and a committee with expertise spanning energy technologies, economics, social sciences, environmental
justice, and policy analysis. The committee worked to produce the interim report from March to October 2020, including innumerable subgroup discussions and three full committee meetings. I would like to thank the committee members for giving so freely of their time, effort, and expertise, especially under the extraordinary circumstances imposed by SARS-CoV-2. Despite a tight timeline and the immensity of the task, the committee members maintained disciplinary rigor while remaining exemplars of interdisciplinary respect. Thanks also to the staff of the National Academies who worked tirelessly to organize us, improve our writing, and help us crystalize our thoughts.
Stephen Pacala, Chair
Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technological, Policy, and Societal Dimensions
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Kathleen Araújo, Boise State University
Greg Bertelsen, Climate Leadership Council
Mijin Cha, Occidental College
David L. Greene, University of Tennessee
Noah Kaufman, Columbia University
Kate Konschnik, Duke University
Christopher A. McLean, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Franklin M. Orr, Jr., Stanford University
John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
José G. Santiesteban, NAE,1 ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
Emily Schapira, Philadelphia Energy Authority
Kumares C. Sinha, NAE, Purdue University
Addison K. Stark, Bipartisan Policy Center
Nicole Systrom, Sutro Energy Group
Cynthia Winland, Just Transitions Fund
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Cherry A. Murray, NAS2/NAE, University of Arizona, and Dan E. Arvizu, NAE, New Mexico State University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
___________________
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
Contents
1 Motivation to Accelerate Deep Decarbonization
Committee’s Approach to the Task Statement
Perspectives on the Net-Zero Problem
Road Map to the Rest of the Report
2 Opportunities for Deep Decarbonization in the United States, 2021–2030
Lessons from Deep Decarbonization Studies and the History of Energy Innovation
The First 10 Years: Five Critical Actions
Impact on U.S. Energy Expenditures in the 2020s
Mobilizing Capital Investment in the 2020s
3 To What End: Societal Goals for Deep Decarbonization
A Social Contract for Decarbonization
Leveraging Deep Decarbonization for Economic and Social Innovation
Support Communities, Businesses, and Workers Directly Affected by Transition
4 How to Achieve Deep Decarbonization
A Greenhouse Gas Budget for the U.S. Economy
A Price on Carbon with Appropriate Measures to Address Competitiveness and Equity
An Equity and Social Justice Framework
A New Social Contract to Mitigate Harm and Expand Economic Opportunities for Impacted Communities
A Clean Energy Standard for Electricity
Electrification and Efficiency Standards for Vehicles, Appliances, and Buildings
Improved Regulation and Design of Power Markets for Clean Electricity
Labor Standards for Clean Energy Work
Standards for Corporate Reporting
U.S. Government Procurement Policy and Domestic Clean Energy Markets
Investing in a Net-Zero U.S. Energy Future
Invest in Educational Programs for a Clean Energy Workforce
Invest in a Revitalized Manufacturing Sector
Invest in Electrification of Tribal Lands
Strengthening the U.S. Capacity to Effectively and Equitably Transition to a Clean Energy Future