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NCHRP Web-Only Document 283: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies Jorge Rueda-Benavides Auburn University Highway Research Center Auburn, AL Cliff Schexnayder Arizona State University Tempe, AZ Ghada Gad California State University Pomona, CA Daniel DâAngelo Applied Research Associates, Inc. Champaign, IL Cesar Mayorga Auburn University Auburn, AL Contractorâs Final Report for NCHRP Project 10-101 Submitted April 2020 NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 initiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniquesâthe National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agreement No. 693JJ31950003. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, NHTSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
CÂ OÂ OÂ PÂ EÂ RÂ AÂ TÂ IÂ VÂ EÂ RÂ EÂ SÂ EÂ AÂ RÂ CÂ HÂ PÂ RÂ OÂ GÂ RÂ AÂ MÂ SÂ CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 283 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Ann M. Hartell, Senior Program Officer Jarrel McAfee, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Janet M. McNaughton, Senior Editor Kathleen Mion, Senior Editorial Assistant NCHRP PROJECT 10-101 PANEL Field of Materials and ConstructionâSpecifications, Procedures, and Practices Ben T. Orsbon, South Dakota Department of Transportation, Pierre, SD (Chair) Bismark Agbelie, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC Ashley Anderson, Florida Department of Transportation, Bartow, FL Teresa L. âTeriâ Kennedy, Arizona Department of Transportation, Phoenix, AZ Scott J. Lawry, Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Madison, WI Robert J. Munchinski, H. W. Lochner, Inc., Bothell, WA Danilo L. Nunez, Jr., City of Alexandria, Occoquan, VA Richard B. Duval, FHWA Liaison Alex Clegg, AASHTO Liaison Nelson H. Gibson, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under NCHRP Project 10-101, âImproving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidance for State Departments of Transportation.â Principal Investigator Dr. Jorge Rueda-Benavides Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Auburn University (AU) led the research. All research efforts were performed with the support of the AU Highway Research Center. The co-principal investigators in this project were Dr. Cliff Schexnayder, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (retired); Dr. Ghada Gad, Assistant Professor, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, CA; and Daniel DâAngelo, Principal Civil Engineer, Applied Research Associates, Inc., Champaign, IL. Cesar Mayorga, doctoral candidate in the Department of Civil Engineering at AU, served as a graduate research assistant on this project. The research team also acknowledges the valuable support and contributions made by the AASHTO Technical Committee on Cost Estimating, which served as an expert advisory panel for this study. The Minnesota Department of Transportation, Colorado Department of Transportation, and Delaware Department of Transportation also made valuable contributions to this study by providing the research team with sufficient historical bid data to develop and assess the long-term performance of various cost forecasting approaches.