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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25974.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25974.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25974.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25974.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25974.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25974.
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72 Appendix A - Historical Bid Data Summary MnDOT SUMMARY: Historical bid data collected from the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) came from 4,334 projects awarded between January 1999 and December 2018. On average, MnDOT average of 215 contracts per year along this period of time, as shown on Figure A.1. Figure A.1 Annual Number of Contracts MnDOT from 1999 – 2018 As seen in Figure A.2, 73% of the contracts were awarded in the first period of each year (see Figure A.2), with 43% being awarded during the second quarter (see Figure A.3). Figure A.4 shows that the MnDOT’s Metro District (DM) is the one with the largest number of project awarded. Figure A.2 Distribution of contracts per period MnDOT from 1999 - 2018 Figure A.3 Distribution of contracts per quarter MnDOT from 1999 - 2018 Figure A.4 Distribution of contracts per region MnDOT from 1999 – 2018 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MnDOT 261 228 250 218 212 202 186 176 161 163 286 209 219 239 275 246 201 167 201 199 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 P1, 73% P2, 27% CONTRACTS PER PERIOD Q1, 29% Q2, 43% Q3, 14% Q4, 13% CONTRACTS PER QUARTER D1, 13% D2, 10% D3, 13% D4, 9%DM, 22% D6, 12% D7, 10% D8, 11% CONTRACTS PER REGION

73 Figure A.5 shows a seasonal trend in the distribution of contracts during the first and second part of the year. The number of contracts awarded by MnDOT during the first period of each year is significantly higher than the number of contracts awarded during the second period. This seasonal behavior is typical in northern states. Winter temperatures limit the ability of contractors to perform work during the second period of the year. Figure A.5 Contracts awarded per period MnDOT from 1999 - 2018 -25 25 75 125 175 225 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

74 CDOT SUMMARY: Throughout the data collection process of the Colorado Department of Transportation, 24 years of information on the contracts attached by this agency were found, equivalent to 3108 projects, as shown in Figure A.6. Figure A.6 Annual Number of Contracts CDOT from 1993 – 2017 Through the process of data cleaning and data analysis, two significant difficulties were encountered. First, some of the contracts did not have the information corresponding to the date of publication or award. Although the team tried hard to find the corresponding information on the agency's website, this was not possible. Besides, the data collected from 1993 and between 2013 and 2017 was not enough to carry out a representative analysis. For these reasons, the research team used only 20 years of data between 1994 and 2013, corresponding to 2653 projects distributed, as shown in Figure A.7. Figure A.7 Annual Number of Contracts CDOT from 1994 – 2013 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CDOT 36 94 122 121 113 136 111 136 115 129 123 137 120 124 142 175 149 162 161 165 118 60 31 15 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Series2 94 122 121 113 136 111 136 115 129 123 137 120 124 142 175 149 162 161 165 118 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

75 On average, the Colorado Department of Transportation awards 132 contracts annually, of which 61% are awarded in the first period of the year, as shown in Figure A.8. Of this 61%, 29% are awarded in the first three months of the year and 32% between April and June, as shown in Figure A.9. Regarding the geographical distribution of the contracts, they are distributed in the six different regions, almost similar, as shown in Figure A.10. The project division is between 10% and 21%. These six regions will later become only four based on the analysis of this project. Figure A.8 Distribution of contracts per period CDOT from 1994 - 2013 Figure A.9 Distribution of contracts per quarter CDOT from 1994 - 2013 Figure A.10 Distribution of contracts per region CDOT from 1994 – 2013 Same as mentioned in the description in Figure A.8, Figure A.11 shows the number of contracts awarded in each period of the year. Same as in the previous agency, a cyclical behavior is observed in which the highest number of settlements is allocated within the first six months of the year. This trend is evidenced by a more significant difference from the year 2001, where more pronounced peaks are seen. For the case of 2013, the number of contracts awarded in the second period of the year that the team managed to collect was very little, so Figure A.11 shows a drastic decrease at the end of it. Figure A.11 Contracts awarded per period CDOT from 1994 - 2013 P1, 61% P2, 39% AVERAGE PERIODS PER YEAR Q1, 29% Q2, 32% Q3, 21% Q4, 17% AVERAGE QUARTERS PER YEAR R1, 17% R2, 17% R3, 18% R4, 17% R5, 10% R6, 21% AVERAGE REGIONS PER YEAR 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

76 DelDOT SUMMARY: The State of Delaware is much smaller compared to the previous two case studies. This can be evidenced in the number of contracts executed between 1999 and 2018, shown in Figure A.12. While in this agency, the highest number of contracts awarded was 97 in 2001, in the Minnesota and Colorado agencies, the years with the highest number of contracts were 286 in 2009 and 175 in 2008, respectively. Figure A.12 Annual Number of Contracts DelDOT from 1999 – 2018 On average, the number of contracts awarded in the first and second periods of the year is very similar. As Figure A.13 shows, 53% of the contracts were executed in the first period of the year, compared with 47% in the second. Although the average shows an almost even division of contracts by period, Figure A.15 shows the detailed quarterly distribution between 1999 and 2018 for the Delaware Department of Transportation. This indicates differences within the years between the number of contracts of the first and second periods. Figure A.13 Distribution of contracts per period DelDOT from 1999 - 2018 Figure A.14 Distribution of contracts per quarter DelDOT from 1999 - 2018 Figure A.15 Distribution of contracts per region DelDOT from 1999 – 2018 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Series2 57 79 97 84 95 82 77 73 93 89 76 79 85 63 65 59 82 63 66 69 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 P1, 53% P2, 47% AVERAGE PERIODS PER YEAR Q1, 27% Q2, 26% Q3, 23% Q4, 24% AVERAGE QUARTERS PER YEAR K, 19% N, 58% S, 23% AVERAGE REGIONS PER YEAR

77 On the other hand, Figure A.15 shows the distribution of contracts from 1999 to 2018. Given the geographical conditions of this state, the location of its central city, and the proximity to the city of Philadelphia, it can be seen that 58 % of the contracts were awarded in New Castle County. The distribution by quarters is almost homogeneous, as shown in Figure A.14, the contracts are distributed in 27%, 26%, 23%, and 24%, respectively. The big difference is shown in Figure A.16, which shows that 58% of the contracts were awarded in New Castle County, which is the one that is farther north and closer to the city of Philadelphia. Figure A.16 Contracts awarded per period CDOT from 1994 - 2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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Predicting the future of the construction market is always a challenging task - regardless of whether it is over the next one or 20 years - since it involves several uncertainties.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 283: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies documents the research that led to the development of a Cost Forecasting Approach Selection Framework that can assist state transportation agencies to select and implement effective mid-term (3 to 5 years), intermediate-range (up to 15 years), and long-range (more than 15 years) cost forecasting procedures.

Supplemental information to the technical report includes NCHRP Research Report 953: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate,and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies, a presentation, and videos.

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