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NSF’s Role in Next Generation Earth Systems Science
The growing societal importance of understanding complex interactions among the Earth’s systems and the advances made in observation platforms, modeling capabilities, and cyberinfrastructure make it both imperative and feasible to advance a new Earth Systems Science at NSF. This next generation Earth Systems Science would both further discoveries in fundamental science and provide practical and foundational knowledge on many of this century’s most urgent challenges, for example, mitigating natural disasters and climate change, ensuring food and water security, and protecting ecosystem health and services. This chapter provides an overview and examples of systems approaches for studying the Earth and lays out a vision for an integrated approach to Earth Systems Science at NSF (Task 1).
2.1 SYSTEMS APPROACHES TO STUDYING THE EARTH
The study of the Earth system has deep historical roots, but arguably systems thinking as an approach for the science emerged in the middle of the 20th century (von Bertalanffy, 1968) and has continuously evolved since then (Steffen et al., 2020). Systems thinking is an approach for understanding highly interlinked, complex, and multidisciplinary problems (Hieronymi, 2013). Systems thinking is relevant across a range of scientific endeavors including cognitive sciences, computer science, biology, ecology, management, engineering, and social sciences. It encompasses a variety of approaches that are selected to address the problem at hand.
Systems thinking approaches used to study the Earth’s systems include theoretical conceptualizations of the dynamics of complex systems as well as solution-oriented science that involves multiple disciplines to address a problem. For example, systems dynamics theory examines systems as interacting components, such as flows of energy and materials between the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, and human systems. Feedbacks among components often give rise to nonlinear relationships, chaotic behavior, path-dependency, homeostasis, and unpredictable complexity. This approach was central to the original Earth Systems Science concept laid out in the mid-1980s, which examined the functions and interactions of the Earth’s component spheres, how they have evolved, and how they may change on all timescales (NASA, 1986). Although the original focus was on the physical climate system, the framework included placeholders for less understood interactions and drivers, notably human activities. Subsequent research funded by a host of federal agencies and international organizations helped flesh out some of these interactions and impacts (e.g., see reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,1 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme,2 U.S. National Climate Change Assessments,3 and World Climate Research Programme4), resulting in an increasingly sophisticated understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and of biogeochemical cycles.
In 1999 the National Research Council released the report, Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability, which attempted to “reinvigorate the essential strategic connections between scientific research, technological development, and societies’ efforts to achieve environmentally sustainable improvements in human well-being” (NRC, 1999). As stated in the 2016 follow-up workshop proceedings, the report “emphasized the need for place-based and systems approaches to sustainability, proposed a research strategy for using scientific and technical knowledge to better inform the field, and highlighted a number of priorities for actions that could contribute to a sustainable future” (NASEM, 2016). Building on these efforts and additional community discussions (e.g., NASEM, 2021a), crucial work in the area of sustainability science has been conducted over the past few decades and assessments of lessons learned provide insights on potential future directions (Clark and Harley, 2020). This use-inspired and solutions-based research offers valuable perspectives on how natural and social processes interact in the Earth system.
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1 See https://www.ipcc.ch/reports.
2 See http://www.igbp.net/publications/reportsandscienceplans.4.59fd12ff12c94e1eeb380001800.html.
3 See https://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment.
4 See https://www.wcrp-climate.org/resources/wcrp-publications.
Solutions-oriented science defines the boundaries of the problem, capturing important interactions across disciplines to address societal and environmental needs. An example is the Social-Ecological Systems framework, which was developed to analyze sustainable use of resources within social-ecological systems (e.g., Ostrom, 2009). The framework focuses on interactions among the resource system, resource units, governance system, and resource users. It has been used for a wide variety of applications, including managing community irrigation systems (Cox, 2014a,b; see Box 2.1) and understanding the fate of ancient human populations (e.g., Turner and Sabloff, 2012).
An example of solutions-oriented science that involves several of the Earth’s systems is climate intervention intended to limit or reverse the impacts of climate change (see Box 2.2). The problem demands a robust systems approach to adequately account for and manage complexity and interactions across the relevant science, technology, civil/commercial, and societal landscapes (NASEM, 2021b; see Box 2.2). The problem has physical, ecological, social, technological, political, economic, and ethical dimensions, and so it entails deep collaboration across disciplines and often involves players from beyond traditional scientific and academic circles (e.g., Seddon et al., 2020).
Systems engineering approaches focus on the application of knowledge in service of an objective, rather than observation and study. They concentrate on understanding, designing, and managing systems of interworking components, including humans and human systems, that work together to perform a useful function, such as communication and transportation systems, the development and operation of renewable energy systems, complex civil construction and operation, and combined space-based and ground data support systems (e.g., Revelle et al., 2003; NASA, 2007; Boehm et al., 2008; MITRE, 2014). A systems engineering approach to Earth science and environmental management aims to understand the multiple levels and interconnections among social, environmental, economic, institutional, and technological systems, as well as the sensitivities of system outcomes for different assumptions and changes (e.g., Bellamy et al., 2001; Clayton and Radcliffe, 2018). It should be noted that Earth Systems Science is an expansive system of systems, as such, systems that may not initially appear to be interdependent may in fact have multiple layers of interdependencies across disparate but connected additional systems. Additionally, natural resource management and environmental decision-making have a rich history of drawing on forms of systems analysis to inform analyses (Holmes and Wolman, 2001).
Studies of the Earth’s systems have provided fundamental scientific insights on processes that operate over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, such as coupling between the biosphere and atmosphere to exchange nutrients, gases, and water (e.g., Suni et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017; Wright et al., 2017); climate variability over geologic timescales (e.g., Zachos et al., 2001; Oster et al., 2014; Westerhold et al., 2020); and the inextricable role of human societies in shaping ecosystems (e.g., Pongratz et al., 2010; Ruddiman, 2013). Such studies, combined with other research on ocean–atmosphere interactions and cloud microphysics and convection, have also underpinned ever-improving short-term predictions (e.g., weather) and long-term projections about Earth systems changes and impacts and how to best communicate them (e.g., Alley et al., 2019; Gerst et al., 2020; Hausfather et al., 2020). These advances address one aspect of NSF’s mission to “promote the progress of science.”
With recognition that human activities—such as burning fossil fuels, transforming natural ecosystems to agricultural land to produce food, and
developing novel institutions to make collective decisions—are altering the ability of the planet to support life, solutions-oriented systems approaches to Earth Systems Science take on urgency. The increasing desire to find solutions for complex societal problems related to the Earth’s systems entails a rethinking of NSF’s Earth Systems Science enterprise. In order to achieve the second aspect of NSF’s mission, to “advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare,” next generation Earth Systems Science calls for advancing convergent, solutions-oriented systems approaches.
One example of next generation Earth Systems Science is the effort to more sustainably manage global nutrient cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus that underpin humanity’s ability to produce food (see Box 2.3). Such a transformation will involve deeply convergent research involving geoscientists, biologists, engineers, and social scientists. It will compel novel technological development to gather better data about nitrogen and phosphorus pools and flows across scales, to improve the efficiency
of nutrient use in food production, and to recycle nutrients from various waste streams. It will also entail insights from decision science, political science, geography, sociology, and economics to understand decision-making around nitrogen and phosphorus in households, regional and national economies, and global trade. Finally, it will involve a scientific workforce that has high capacity to operate across diverse disciplines and with diverse stakeholders to address the nutrient challenge.
2.2 A VISION FOR NEXT GENERATION EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE AT NSF
Gaining scientific knowledge about how and why the Earth’s systems evolve and change, particularly how activities of people and human institutions drive change and in turn are impacted by change, is among the most critical endeavors of the 21st century. This urgency sets the stage for the next generation Earth Systems Science that will further scientific discovery and increase emphasis on solutions-oriented investigations in
Earth systems−related problems. There are three critical concerns. First is to understand the coupled interactions among multiple components of the Earth system, including human dynamics, atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere. Second is to incorporate the diverse perspectives and values of interdisciplinary teams in scientific inquiry, which affect the questions that scientists ask, their ability to do the work, and their effectiveness in communicating results. Third is to advance convergence approaches that combine solutions-oriented perspectives with insights on how these solutions can contribute (or not) to equitable and sustainable societies.
The time is ripe for an Earth Systems Science that recognizes the urgency to inform decisions about human stewardship of the planet; builds on the scientific advances of the previous decades; incorporates all relevant disciplines, approaches, and perspectives into convergent approaches; utilizes the vast expansion in data and advances in computation; takes advantage of new analysis methods; and addresses the mandate for diversity and inclusion of a wide range of perspectives in the endeavor. The committee’s vision for an integrated approach to studies of the Earth system is as follows:
A next generation Earth Systems Science approach that explores interactions among natural and social processes that affect the Earth’s capacity for sustaining life, now and in the future.
NSF’s critical and unique role in next generation Earth Systems Science is as follows:
To innovate, advance, and nurture systems approaches to discover how our planet functions and to inform how society can function as part of the Earth’s systems for the well-being of communities, regions, the nation, and the world.
The next chapter lays out a set of key characteristics that should define an integrated approach to next generation Earth Systems Science at NSF.
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