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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

PREPUBLICATION COPY Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Board on Environmental Change and Society Division on Earth and Life Studies Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education This prepublication version of Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in spring 2021. A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26055 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2021 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26055. PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF

COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair, NAS), Marine Biological Laboratory KRISTIE L. EBI (Vice Chair), University of Washington ARRIETTA CHAKOS, Urban Resilience Strategies PETER DASZAK (NAM), EcoHealth Alliance THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University PHILIP B. DUFFY, Woodwell Climate Research Center BARUCH FISCHHOFF (NAS, NAM), Carnegie Mellon University PAUL FLEMING, Microsoft SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, CNA NANCY B. GRIMM (NAS), Arizona State University HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research RICHARD H. MOSS, Princeton University MARGO OGE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ret.) S. GEORGE H. PHILANDER (NAS), Princeton University BENJAMIN L. PRESTON, RAND Corporation PAUL A. SANDIFER, College of Charleston HENRY G. SCHWARTZ, Jr. (NAE), Jacobs Engineering (ret.) KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut BRIAN L. ZUCKERMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses Science and Technology Policy Institute National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate AMANDA STAUDT, Director, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate TOBY WARDEN, Director, Board on Environmental Change and Society JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF v

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE MARY GLACKIN (Chair), The Weather Company, an IBM Business CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington JOHN C. CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley BRADLEY R. COLMAN, The Climate Corporation BART E. CROES, California Air Resources Board ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists VANDA GRUBIŠIĆ, National Center for Atmospheric Research ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin-Madison ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan DAVID W. TITLEY, U.S. Navy (ret.), Pennsylvania State University DUANE E. WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director LAUREN EVERETT, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer RACHEL SILVERN, Associate Program Officer SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Business Partner RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF vi

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), University of Washington HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado Boulder KATHARINE JACOBS, University of Arizona MICHAEL ANTHONY MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington MAXINE L. SAVITZ (NAE), Honeywell, Inc. (ret.) MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University JALONNE WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC CATHY WHITLOCK (NAS), Montana State University ROBYN S. WILSON, The Ohio State University National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff TOBY WARDEN, Director ADAM JONES, Senior Program Assistant TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator MARIA ORIA, Senior Program Officer JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer JORDYN WHITE, Program Officer PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF vii

PREFACE This is a report from the National Academies Committee to Advise the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) offering input to USGCRP on the development of its new 10-year strategic plan scheduled to be released in 2022. The report was prepared during “the year of COVID-19,” 2020. As a result of this coincidence in timing, the committee spoke often about several parallels between the pandemic and the threat of climate change: It is global in scale, often hits the disadvantaged hardest, and requires scientifically informed and collective actions to avert the worst consequences. The themes of scale, equity and science-to-action are woven throughout the report. Over the past three decades, USGCRP has fostered coordinated research on all aspects of global change, especially climate change. The federal government has also supported U.S. engagement in collaborative international efforts of research, observation, and assessment. These efforts have resulted in impressive advances in understanding and robust modeling of global change and have also provided useful scientific knowledge to decision makers. As impacts of climate change have become ever more apparent, the focus of USGCRP has evolved from a primary focus on the physical climate system toward the even more challenging focus on complex interactions among the physical climate system, Earth’s ecosystems, and the human systems whose dynamics are governed by human actions. This continuing evolution supports USGCRP’s mandate of assisting “the nation and the world to understand, assess, predict and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.” A new USGCRP strategic plan that puts user needs at the forefront would entrain a broader and more diverse set of stakeholders and incentivize integrated research. The Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program is the body within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine responsible for advising USGCRP. We are indebted to the staff at the National Academies who provided guidance, input, and support throughout the writing of the report, particularly Amanda Purcell, whose dedication and scientific understanding were critical throughout, and to Drs. Amanda Staudt and Toby Warden, whose deep technical knowledge and insights into the National Academies and USGCRP processes helped ensure an appropriately targeted report. Finally, we dedicate this report to our late colleague, Dr. Anthony (Tony) Janetos, who chaired the Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program from April 2017, until his passing too soon in August 2019. Over more than three decades, Tony wrote and spoke widely on the need to understand the scientific, economic, and policy linkages among the major global environmental issues and played an important role in shaping the public dialogue on climate change. We cherish the memory of Tony’s thoughtfulness, his generosity of spirit, his insights, his humor, and his assuring smile. Jerry M. Melillo, Chair Kristie L. Ebi, Vice Chair Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF ix

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists ISAAC M. HELD (NAS), Princeton University JOHN P. HOLDREN (NAS, NAE), Harvard University JEANINE A. JONES, California Department of Water Resources THOMAS R. KARL, Climate and Weather, LLC ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University MAUREEN LICHTVELD (NAM), University of Pittsburgh FRIEDERIKE OTTO, University of Oxford VARUN RAI, University of Texas-Austin ROD SCHOONOVER, Ecological Futures AMY K. SNOVER, University of Washington JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC KYLE WHYTE, University of Michigan Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Katherine H. Freeman (NAS), Pennsylvania State University, and Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF xi

CONTENTS Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Climate Change Poses Significant Risks to American Security ................................................... 2 Integrated Systems-Based Research Is Critical For Management of Climate Risks ................... 3 Crosscutting Analyses and Data Are Needed to Support Management of Climate Risks .......... 6 Shifting the USGCRP Paradigm to Support Management of Climate Risks ................................ 8 Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 11 The Role of USGCRP in Preparing the Nation to Meet These Challenges ................................ 12 A New Framework to Approach the Next USGCRP Strategic Plan ........................................... 13 Our Committee and Task .......................................................................................................... 15 Report Roadmap ....................................................................................................................... 16 Chapter 2. Global Change Risks to Human Systems ..................................................................... 17 Population Health and Health Systems .................................................................................... 20 Food .......................................................................................................................................... 21 Water ........................................................................................................................................ 22 Energy ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Transportation and Infrastructure ............................................................................................ 24 Economy.................................................................................................................................... 25 National and International Security .......................................................................................... 26 Integrating across Risks............................................................................................................. 27 Implications of a Risk Framing Of Research .............................................................................. 28 Chapter 3. Integrated Systems-Based Research ........................................................................... 31 Evolving USGCRP Priorities toward an Integrated Systems-Based Approach .......................... 31 Human System and Human-Natural System Science to Support Decision Making ................. 33 Designing and Implementing Integrated Systems-Based Research ......................................... 35 Chapter 4. Research on Approaches Critical to Managing Climate Risk ...................................... 37 Reducing Risk by Global Emissions Reduction .......................................................................... 37 Adaptation to Reduce Risks ...................................................................................................... 40 Solar Geoengineering Approaches ........................................................................................... 41 A Need for Integrated Research on Risk-Management Approaches........................................ 42 Chapter 5. Crosscutting Research and Data Priorities .................................................................. 43 Extreme Events, Thresholds, and Tipping Points ...................................................................... 44 PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF xiii

Simulation of Local- and Regional-Scale Climate ...................................................................... 47 Scenarios-Based Approaches .................................................................................................... 49 Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion In Global Change Research..................................................... 52 Maintenance and Improvement of Data and Analysis Facilities .............................................. 53 Crosscutting Priorities to Advance Integrated Systems-Based Risk Management .................. 55 Chapter 6. Next Steps for Shifting the USGCRP Paradigm............................................................ 57 Organizational and Operational Changes ................................................................................. 58 Final Thoughts ........................................................................................................................... 61 References .................................................................................................................................... 63 Appendix A. Statement of Task..................................................................................................... 79 Appendix B. Committee Member Biographies ............................................................................. 81 PREPUBLICATION COPY—UNCORRECTED PROOF

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The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 advises the USGCRP on how best to meet its mandate in light of climate change impacts happening today and projected into the future. This report identifies critical climate change risks, research needed to support decision-making relevant to managing these risks, and opportunities for the USGCRP's participating agencies and other partners to advance these research priorities over the next decade.

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