Appendix H
NNSA’s Over the Horizon Initiative
In 2010, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) began an “Over the Horizon” (OTH) project within the then Office of Nonproliferation and International Security, designed to identify trends and anticipate future challenges. Over the next year, NNSA conducted a literature review of studies on proliferation threats and structured interviews with participants from government, nongovernmental organizations, and industry, producing a report in July 2011 that looked ahead to the 2016–2020 timeframe. In 2012, NNSA convened a working group of representatives from each Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN) program office to conduct a peer review of OTH findings by external subject matter experts and develop an updated analysis for 2017–2021.
The OTH project and working group stayed active through at least 2015. In October 2015, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a review of the initiative,1 noting that the implementation of the effort was ad hoc in several ways. For example, at odds with established best practices, the initiative did not keep detailed records or analyses of the interviews it conducted, nor did it document the results of the peer review. In his response to GAO, then NNSA Administrator Frank Klotz noted that “the Over the Horizon Initiative (OTH) has been a valuable tool in helping to assess nonproliferation threats and NNSA competencies and to inform the agency’s organization and strategic decision making,” and that “to ensure ongoing effectiveness, we have established an Office of
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1 GAO. October 2015. Nuclear Nonproliferation: NNSA’s Threat Assessment Process Could Be Improved. GAO-16-118. https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/673470.pdf.
Strategic Planning and Implementation within DNN to manage OTH and other complementary information and planning tools.”
This office was short-lived; DNN Research and Development (R&D) indicated that it no longer exists at the time of this study; furthermore, the OTH effort was not extended after the second study was completed in 2014. DNN R&D did note that in 2019, a Strategic Vision document was created, which reflects the priorities of DNN through fiscal year 2025 (DNN R&D, communication to committee, October 14, 2020).
