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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26142.
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Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Contents Table of Figures .................................................................................................................................... vii Table of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... ix Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................... x Chemical Formulas and Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xi Mathematical Symbols ........................................................................................................................ xii Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Emissions Data ......................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 Qualitative Emissions Data ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 Quantitative Emissions Data ....................................................................................... 10 2.2 Engine Performance Data ...................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Trajectory Data ....................................................................................................................... 17 3 Emissions Modeling Methodology ................................................................................................ 25 3.1 Internal Fleet Database .......................................................................................................... 25 3.2 User-Defined Operational Data.............................................................................................. 26 3.3 Emissions Model Calculations ................................................................................................ 27 3.4 Emissions Inventory and Propellant Burn Report .................................................................. 27 4 Database of Emissions Indices ....................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Definition of Emissions Indices .............................................................................................. 29 4.2 Primary Emissions Indices ...................................................................................................... 30 4.3 Final Emissions Indices ........................................................................................................... 31 4.3.1 Water Vapor ................................................................................................................ 32 4.3.2 Carbon Monoxide and Carbon Dioxide ....................................................................... 33 4.3.3 Alumina ....................................................................................................................... 34 4.3.4 Chlorine Species .......................................................................................................... 34 4.3.5 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) ................................................................................................. 35 4.3.6 Black Carbon ............................................................................................................... 37 4.4 Emissions Indices for Commercial Space Vehicles ................................................................. 39 4.4.1 Primary Emissions Indices ........................................................................................... 39 4.4.2 Final Emissions Indices ................................................................................................ 41 5 Model Validation ........................................................................................................................... 45 5.1 Model Validation Results ....................................................................................................... 45 5.1.1 Sources of Uncertainty ................................................................................................ 45

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling 5.1.2 Engine Performance Data ........................................................................................... 46 5.1.3 Primary Emissions Indices ........................................................................................... 47 5.1.4 Final Emissions Indices ................................................................................................ 48 5.1.5 Emissions Inventory .................................................................................................... 49 5.2 Future Model Validation Plan ................................................................................................ 52 5.2.1 Background ................................................................................................................. 52 5.2.2 High-Fidelity Modeling ................................................................................................ 53 5.2.3 Field Measurements ................................................................................................... 54 6 AEDT Integration Plan .................................................................................................................... 59 6.1 Elements Unique to Commercial Space Vehicles ................................................................... 59 6.1.1 Fleet Database ............................................................................................................ 59 6.1.2 Emissions Indices ........................................................................................................ 60 6.1.3 Operational Data ......................................................................................................... 60 6.1.4 Emissions Inventory and Propellant Burn Report ....................................................... 61 6.2 User Interface Modifications.................................................................................................. 63 6.3 Emissions Model Pseudocode ................................................................................................ 66 6.4 Spreadsheet Emissions Estimator Tool .................................................................................. 70 6.5 Software Verification and Validation ..................................................................................... 75 7 Emissions Modeling Tool ............................................................................................................... 76 7.1 Why is a Software Tool Needed? ........................................................................................... 76 7.2 RUMBLE 3.0 .............................................................................................................................. 76 8 Conclusions and Suggested Research ............................................................................................ 80 8.1 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 80 8.2 Suggested Research ............................................................................................................... 84 References ........................................................................................................................................... 87

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Table of Figures Figure 1. Preview of the RUMBLE 3.0 user interface. .............................................................................. 1 Figure 2. Estimates of the final emissions indices, in grams of pollutant emitted per kilogram of propellant consumed, for selected first-stage rocket engines at sea level. .......................................... 2 Figure 3. Types of commercial space vehicles. ...................................................................................... 4 Figure 4. Active commercial, government, and private launch sites in the United States [5]. ............. 5 Figure 5. Examples of the environmental impacts of rocket emissions in each atmospheric layer and the important pollutants that determine those impacts. ..................................................................... 5 Figure 6. Diagram of the chemical processes in a rocket engine that produce the primary, secondary, and final emissions. ................................................................................................................................ 8 Figure 7. Space Shuttle and Titan IV launches. .................................................................................... 11 Figure 8. Falcon 9 launch. .................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 9. The SpaceShipTwo exhaust plume contains black carbon. .................................................. 13 Figure 10. Nominal thrust profile for the SSME during the ascent phase [64]. .................................. 16 Figure 11. Normalized mass flow rates for the first stages of the Saturn V and Saturn IB rockets during the ascent phases of the Skylab 1 and Skylab 2 missions [66, 67]. ..................................................... 17 Figure 12. Altitude profiles of different historical launch vehicles with similar target (parking) orbits. .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Figure 13. Altitude profiles of similar historical launch vehicles with different target orbits. ............ 21 Figure 14. Altitude profiles of different historical and in-development launch vehicles with different target orbits. ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 15. Altitude profiles of historical and in-development launch vehicles below the Kármán line (100 km). .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 16. Time duration in each altitude band for historical and publicly available trajectories. ..... 23 Figure 17. Overview of the emissions modeling methodology. .......................................................... 25 Figure 18. Structure of the internal fleet database. ............................................................................ 26 Figure 19. Overview of the method for estimating the primary emissions indices. ........................... 30 Figure 20. Overview of the method for estimating the final emissions indices. ................................. 32 Figure 21. Mass fraction of CO relative to the combined mass of CO and CO2 as a function of altitude [14, 19]. ................................................................................................................................... 33

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Figure 22. Mass fractions of HCl, Cl, and Cl2 relative to the total mass of chlorine-containing molecules as functions of altitude [15, 18-20]. ..................................................................................................... 35 Figure 23. Secondary emissions index for NOx as a function of altitude [15, 18, 23, 24]. ................... 36 Figure 24. Final emissions index for black carbon in LOX/RP-1 engines as a function of altitude [8, 31, 32]. ....................................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 25. Estimates of the final emissions indices, in grams of pollutant emitted per kilogram of propellant consumed, for selected first-stage rocket engines at sea level. ........................................ 43 Figure 26. Comparison between the emissions inventory calculated by the commercial space vehicle emissions model and the emissions inventory published in the Space Shuttle EIS [14]. .................... 51 Figure 27. Simulation of a space vehicle and exhaust plume in Loci/CHEM. ...................................... 53 Figure 28. Conceptual roadmap for future model validation. ............................................................. 55 Figure 29. Rocket engine test at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. .......................................... 55 Figure 30. Photograph of the NASA DC-8 chase plane following the DLR A320 aircraft during the NDMAX/ECLIF measurement campaign. ............................................................................................. 57 Figure 31. Existing AEDT mode categories. .......................................................................................... 61 Figure 32. Atmospheric layers below the Kármán line. ....................................................................... 62 Figure 33. Conceptual design of the airport/spaceport layout design panel and launch pad dialog.. 64 Figure 34. Conceptual design of the spacecraft trajectory dialog. ...................................................... 65 Figure 35. Conceptual design of the static operation wizard. ............................................................. 66 Figure 36. User input worksheet for vehicle parameters. ................................................................... 71 Figure 37. User input worksheet for operational data. ....................................................................... 72 Figure 38. Emissions inventory and propellant burn report grouped by operations mode. ............... 74 Figure 39. Emissions inventory and propellant burn report grouped by operations detail. ............... 74 Figure 40. Preview of the RUMBLE 3.0 user interface. .......................................................................... 77 Figure 41. Preview of the RUMBLE 3.0 operations tab. ......................................................................... 78 Figure 42. Preview of the RUMBLE 3.0 emissions report viewer. .......................................................... 79 Figure 43. Comparison between the estimated Falcon 9 launch emissions below the mixing height and the Boeing 737-800 landing and takeoff cycle emissions [57, 125, 127]. .................................... 86

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Table of Tables Table 1. Major primary emissions species for common types of rocket propellants............................ 9 Table 2. Performance specifications for the first-stage rocket engines of current commercial and selected historical launch vehicles. ...................................................................................................... 15 Table 3. Launch vehicle weight classes [70]. ....................................................................................... 18 Table 4. Summary of publicly available historical launch vehicle trajectory data. .............................. 19 Table 5. Selected software packages for trajectory design and optimization. .................................... 24 Table 6. Primary emissions index of black carbon for different types of rocket propellants. ............. 38 Table 7. Estimates of the primary emissions indices, in grams of pollutant emitted per kilogram of propellant consumed, for first-stage rocket engines. ......................................................................... 40 Table 8. Estimates of the final emissions indices, in grams of pollutant emitted per kilogram of propellant consumed, for first-stage rocket engines at sea level. ...................................................... 42 Table 9. Estimates of the final emissions indices, in grams of pollutant emitted per kilogram of propellant consumed, for first-stage rocket engines at an altitude of 40 km (25 mi). ....................... 44 Table 10. Primary emissions indices, in grams of pollutant emitted per kilogram of propellant consumed, for the Space Shuttle. ........................................................................................................ 48 Table 11. Proposed mode categories for commercial space vehicles. ................................................ 62 Table 12. Pseudocode input parameters. ............................................................................................ 67 Table 13. Pseudocode output parameters. ......................................................................................... 67

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Acronyms ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program AEDT Aviation Environmental Design Tool ASTOS Analysis, Simulation, and Trajectory Optimization Software for Space Applications BRRC Blue Ridge Research and Consulting, LLC CEA Chemical Equilibrium with Applications DLR German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) EA Environmental Assessment EIS Environmental Impact Statement FAA Federal Aviation Administration JANNAF Joint Army Navy NASA Air Force LEO Low Earth Orbit MAVERIC-II Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NDMAX/ECLIF NASA/DLR Multidisciplinary Airborne Experiment—Emission and Climate Impact of Alternative Fuel OTIS4 Optimal Trajectories by Implicit Simulation POST2 Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II REEDM Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model RISO Rocket Impacts on Stratospheric Ozone RSIF RUMBLE Standard input File RSRM Reusable Solid Rocket Motor SORT Simulation and Optimization of Rocket Trajectories SPF-III Standard Plume Flowfield SPP Solid Propellant Rocket Motor Performance Prediction Computer Program SSME Space Shuttle Main Engine TAOS Trajectory Analysis and Optimization Software TDK Two-Dimensional Kinetic

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Chemical Formulas and Abbreviations Al Aluminum Al2O3 Aluminum oxide (alumina) APCP Ammonium perchlorate composite propellant BC Black carbon (soot) CH4 Methane Cl Atomic chlorine Cl2 Diatomic chlorine Clx Generic term for chlorine-containing compounds CO Carbon monoxide CO2 Carbon dioxide H Atomic hydrogen H2 Diatomic hydrogen H2O Water HCl Hydrogen chloride HTPB Hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene LOX Liquid oxygen MMH Monomethylhydrazine N Atomic nitrogen N2 Diatomic nitrogen N2H4 Hydrazine N2O Nitrous oxide N2O4 Nitrogen tetroxide NH₄ClO₄ Ammonium perchlorate NOx Generic term for nitrogen oxides O Atomic oxygen O2 Diatomic oxygen OH Hydroxyl PBAN Polybutadiene acrylonitrile PM Particulate matter PM10 Particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter RP-1 Highly refined form of kerosene used as rocket fuel UDMH Unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine

Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling Mathematical Symbols 𝑎𝑎 Spacecraft acceleration 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑓𝑓 Final emissions index 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝 Primary emissions index 𝑔𝑔0 Standard acceleration due to gravity at Earth’s surface ℎ Altitude 𝐸𝐸𝑠𝑠𝑝𝑝 Specific impulse 𝑀𝑀𝑝𝑝 Total propellant mass 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 Molecular weight ?̇?𝑚 Mass flow rate ?̇?𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 Average mass flow rate ?̇?𝑚𝑖𝑖 Instantaneous mass flow rate 𝑇𝑇 Thrust 𝑡𝑡𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 Burn time 𝑣𝑣 Spacecraft velocity 𝑈𝑈𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 Equivalent exhaust velocity

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Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations require the licensing of spaceports and launch vehicles, which includes the assessment of environmental impacts.

The TRB Airport Cooperative Research Program’s ACRP Web-Only Document 51: Commercial Space Vehicle Emissions Modeling presents a user-friendly tool for practitioners to estimate the emissions associated with commercial space vehicle activity.

Supplementary materials to the document include an Emissions Example Information & Users Guide, the RUMBLE application, and a RUMBLE User Guide.

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