Transportation System Resilience: Research Roadmap and White Papers (2021)

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2021 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 975 Transportation System Resilience: Research Roadmap and White Papers David R. Fletcher Geographic Paradigm Computing, Inc. Albuquerque, NM David S. Ekern DS Ekern Consulting Biwabik, MN Subscriber Categories Administration and Management • Security and Emergencies • Society Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 975 Project 20-59(54) ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-67427-0 Library of Congress Control Number 2021944285 © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, NHTSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. Credits: Some maps in Part 2 of this report were created using art obtained from Maps by America 2050.org. Use of this art is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 3.0 United States License. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 975 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Stephan A. Parker, Senior Program Officer Stephanie L. Campbell, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Sharon Lamberton, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 20-59(54) PANEL Field of Special Projects Dana Hendrix, California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS), Sacramento, CA (Co-Chair) Brian Ness, Idaho Transportation Department, Boise, ID (Co-Chair) Chris Baglin, Independent Consultant, Alexandria, VA Brent Cain, Arizona Department of Transportation, Phoenix, AZ Heather Cook, Westminster, CO Catherine Dallaire, KPMG LLP, Ottawa, ON Sybil Derrible, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL Cassandra Isackson, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul, MN Yuko Nakanishi, Nakanishi Research and Consulting, LLC, Forest Hills, NY Debra Nelson, New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, New York, NY Lorenzo G. Parra, Massachusetts Department of Transportation (Retired), Las Cruces, NM Yilei Shi, State University of New York (SUNY), Canton, NY David Cooper, TSA Liaison Richard Gerhart, FTA Liaison Anthony B. Tisdale, FTA Liaison Jia-Dzwan Shen, FHWA Liaison William D. Brohard, National Guard Bureau, Joint Training & Education Division Liaison Jason Cowin, Military Surface Deployment & Distribution Command Liaison John French, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Liaison Sarah Gambill, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Liaison Jim McDonnell, AASHTO Liaison Melissa Savage, AASHTO Liaison Patrick Zelinski, AASHTO Liaison William Anderson, TRB Liaison

This report identifies 125 high-priority research needs of interest to state departments of transportation, FHWA, and others, and recommends 26 specific research topics in the areas of transportation security, emergency management, infrastructure protection, and transportation resilience. The report also provides environmental, economic, and cyber per- spectives on transportation resilience with actionable messages for senior agency leaders and local elected officials. Beginning shortly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the anthrax and sniper attacks that quickly followed, state departments of transportation (DOTs) initiated a variety of activities—including research—to address a changed threat environment that involves security, emergency management, infrastructure protection, and resilience. Resil- ience has many different dimensions and relates to activities ranging from planning through design and construction to operations and maintenance. Resilience also includes social, economic, and funding considerations, and depends on the participation of a diverse set of agencies and organizations. Major shifts in how transpor- tation agencies view resilience occurred following Hurricane Katrina, Superstorm Sandy, infectious disease outbreaks from pandemic flu and, most recently, COVID-19. State DOTs and other organizations, including AASHTO and TRB, have investigated how best to pre- pare for, prevent, mitigate, respond to, or recover from weather-related and human-caused disasters, emergencies, and security incidents. Significant institutional, organizational, and technical issues are emerging as the broader transportation community enters the evolving fields of resilience and security. In 2018, TRB sponsored the Transportation Resilience Innovations Summit and Exchange (RISE) held in Denver, Colorado. This national summit and peer exchange on transporta- tion resilience convened more than 450 practitioners and researchers, including the state DOTs, to focus on implementing risk and resilience practices within daily and emergency management operations in their particular environments. Under NCHRP Project 20-59(54), “Transportation System Resilience: Research Roadmap and White Papers,” Geographic Paradigm Computing, Inc., was asked to discover knowl- edge gaps related to resilience and to identify and prioritize critical research needs. A lit- erature review was conducted and three national workshops were held. Over the course of 3 years, the research team engaged with a diverse set of transportation policy makers, executives, professionals, and researchers, and more than 180 resilience research needs were identified. NCHRP Research Report 975 documents and prioritizes these research needs, providing a roadmap for deciding which research to fund and in what order. The report is F O R E W O R D By Stephan A. Parker Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

accompanied by a Roadmap Ratings and Rankings Workbook (Appendix C). A presenta- tion summarizing the research is also available to download. This report joins other relevant NCHRP research products: NCHRP Research Report 970: Mainstreaming System Resilience Concepts into Transportation Agencies: A Guide, and NCHRP Research Report 976: Resilience Primer for Transportation Executives.

AMR10 [TRB] Committee on Critical Transportation Infrastructure Protection CEO chief executive officer CI/KR critical infrastructure and key resources COOP Continuity of operations; Continuity of Operations Plan CPS cyber-physical systems CTSSR Committee on Transportation Systems Security and Resilience DDOS distributed denial of service FANSP functions, assets, networks, systems, and people FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GMSL global mean sea level HEEP Highway Engineering Exchange Program ICS industrial control systems IoT Internet of Things IPCC U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mNGT Modified Nominal Group Technique NEPA National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 NIBS National Institute of Building Sciences NIPP National Infrastructure Protection Plan NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RISE Transportation Resilience Innovations Summit and Exchange SCOR [AASHTO] Standing Committee on Research SCOTSEM [AASHTO] Special Committee on Transportation Security and Emergency Management SSP Sector-Specific Plan TAM transportation asset management A B B R E V I A T I O N S

Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions. 1 Summary P A R T   1 Research Overview 7 Background 9 Research Approach 13 Project Findings 19 Conclusions and Recommendations P A R T   2 White Papers: Understanding Transportation Resilience 25 Understanding Transportation Resilience: An Environmental Perspective 39 Understanding Transportation Resilience: An Economic Perspective 49 Understanding Transportation Resilience: A Cyber Perspective P A R T   3 The 2020–2025 Transportation System Resilience Research Roadmap 63 Introduction 72 Analysis of Recommended Projects 75 Recommended Roadmap of 2020–2025 Research Projects 89 References 92 Appendix A Transportation System Resilience Research Needs—Research Needs Submission Form 93 Appendix B Excerpts from Understanding Transportation Resilience: A 2016–2018 Roadmap 100 Appendix C Roadmap Ratings and Rankings Workbook C O N T E N T S