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NCHRP Web-Only Document 295: IMPROVED PREDICTION MODELS FOR CRASH TYPES AND CRASH SEVERITIES John N. Ivan Sha Al Mamun Nalini Ravishanker University of Connecticut Storrs, CT Bhagwant Persaud Craig Lyon Persaud and Lyon, Inc. Toronto, ON, Canada Raghavan Srinivasan Bo Lan Sarah Smith Taha Saleem University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, NC Mohamed Abdel-Aty Jaeyoung Lee Ahmed Farid Jung-Han Wang University of Central Florida Orlando, FL Contractorâs Final Report for NCHRP Project 17-62 Submitted July 2018 NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 initiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniquesâthe National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agreement No. 693JJ31950003. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, NHTSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
CÂ OÂ OÂ PÂ EÂ RÂ AÂ TÂ IÂ VÂ EÂ RÂ EÂ SÂ EÂ AÂ RÂ CÂ HÂ PÂ RÂ OÂ GÂ RÂ AÂ MÂ SÂ CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 295 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs David Jared, Senior Program Officer Hana Vagnerova, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Kathleen Mion, Senior Editorial Assistant NCHRP PROJECT 17-62 PANEL Field of TrafficâArea of Safety Richard Retting, Sam Schwartz Consulting, Washington, DC (Chair) Peter A. Aiyuk, Nevada DOT, Carson City, NV Larry J. Colclasure, Maldonado-Burkett Intelligent Transportation Systems, Austin, TX Gianluca Dell'Acqua, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples Reza Jafari, Road Safety and Transportation Solutions, Inc., Raleigh, NC In-Kyu Lim, Virginia Department of Transportation, Richmond, VA Neil M. May, City of Madison, Madison, WI John Milton, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, WA Brian Murphy, North Carolina Department of Transportation, Garner, NC Craig Thor, FHWA Liaison Kelly Hardy, AASHTO Liaison Bernardo Kleiner, TRB Liaison