Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Analysis, Causes, and Responses (2022)

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71   Bus ridership has been declining in all but a handful of cities across the United States. Topeka, Kansas, is one of the few cities that has not experienced this ridership decline. Instead, the Topeka Metropolitan Transit Authority (Topeka Metro) has bucked the industry trend of declining bus ridership and experienced increases year after year in fixed-route ridership— 3.7% in FY 2017, 2.0% in FY 2018, and 2.3% in FY 2019 (Berberich Trahan & Co., 2017; Berberich Trahan & Co., 2018; Berberich Trahan & Co., 2019). While different factors could explain why Topeka Metro’s ridership has continued to increase when many other transit agencies’ ridership counts are decreasing, one clear differentiator between Topeka Metro and other transit agencies is Topeka Metro’s use of numerous fare-free promotions as a means of promoting transit for different groups within the community. Some of these promotions are commonly implemented by other transit agencies, like providing free fares on the Dump the Pump Day and Election Day. However, Topeka Metro also runs several promotions that provide free transit access for a limited period of time to groups that may not typically receive free fares elsewhere. These include a Veterans Ride Free promotion every November (see Figure 8-1), a summer-long ride-free promotion for kids under 18 years of age, and a Families Ride Free promotion every spring and winter during the local school district’s breaks. By identifying the impacts of these promotions on ridership, transit agencies can more effectively develop fare policies that could potentially boost ridership. 8.1 Objective of the Fare-Free Promotions Analysis Prior studies have explored the impacts of systemwide free transit access (Volinski, 2012; Kansas Corporation Commission, 1988). Other studies have explored the impacts of one specific promotion that targets a single group of riders, like seniors or college students (Metaxatos, 2013; Yu and Beimborn, 2018). The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of fare-free policies for numerous specific groups—including students, veterans, and seniors—on bus rider- ship. Topeka Metro is used as a case study because the transit agency’s fare policy is unique in that it targets many different groups of riders (often at different times of the year), but it is not free for all riders. 8.2 Fare-Free Promotions in Topeka For the purpose of this study, the fare-free promotions are divided into two groups: long- term promotions and short-term promotions. More details of the different fare-free promotions offered by Topeka Metro are described in this section. C H A P T E R 8 The Impact of Fare-Free Promotions on Bus Ridership in Topeka, Kansas

72 Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Analysis, Causes, and Responses 8.2.1 Long-Term Promotions Topeka Metro oers several fare-free promotions that are a month or longer, as shown in Figure 8-2. Promotions that are one month or longer are considered separately from shorter programs (less than one month) since the time-unit of analysis in the models that follow is monthly. • Jurors Ride Free: is promotion was introduced by Topeka Metro in October 2016 to provide free transit access to jurors when going to/from jury duty. Jurors get two tickets per day during the trial (Fry, 2016). • Seniors (65+) Ride Free: Topeka Metro initiated this promotion in 2016. is promotion provides free transit access to seniors (65+) during the month of May. • Kids (18 & Under) Ride Free: Topeka Metro oers free transit access to kids under 18 each summer from mid-May to mid-August. • Middle & High School Students Ride Free: Topeka Metro places a particular emphasis on providing young people with free transit. For this program, local middle and high school students are provided with free transit passes during the school year through a partnership with select local public schools. It should be noted that the school district does pay for these fares at a negotiated rate per pass. • Veterans Ride Free: Topeka Metro oers free transit access to veterans during the month of November. Figure 8-1. Veterans Ride Free promotion. Note: Washburn University students, faculty, and staff have access to transit through a university pass program known as UPass. However, this program is not characterized as a free promotion because some of the costs are paid in part through student fees. Jurors Ride Free Year-Round •Started in 2016 Seniors (65+) Ride Free May •Started in 2016 Kids (18 & Under) Ride Free May–August •Started in 2013 Middle & High School Students Ride Free August–May •Started in 2012 Veterans Ride Free November •Started in 2012 Figure 8-2. Long-term Topeka Metro fare promotions.

The Impact of Fare-Free Promotions on Bus Ridership in Topeka, Kansas 73   8.2.2 Short-Term Promotions In addition to long-term promotions, Topeka Metro also oers several short-term promo- tions throughout the year, as shown in Figure 8-3 and described in this section. It should be noted that the following analysis focuses on the long-term promotions (not these short-term promotions) due to data availability. e available data are monthly bus trips; therefore, the impacts of short-term promotions that are less than a month might not have a sizable eect. However, it is worth mentioning that Topeka’s 2019 ridership statistics show that some of these short-term promotions are likely to have positive impacts on ridership. For example, the 2019 Families Ride Free (Spring Fling) week had ridership of 1,732 unlinked bus trips, which is about 24 bus trips per route per day. Also, the 2019 Remember Rosa Parks Day ride-free promotion had ridership of 4,507 unlinked bus trips, which is about 376 bus trips per route per day. • Families Ride Free: Topeka Metro oers free rides for families twice each year. Spring Fling is a week during school break in March, and Winter Fling is during the holiday season in late December and early January. is promotion allows families of one to two adults plus at least one kid under 18 to ride the bus for free. • Volunteers Ride Free: Topeka Metro provides unlimited bus trips for local volunteers with a volunteer ID during National Volunteer Week each April to recognize their eorts. • No Pay Earth Day: Topeka Metro celebrates Earth Day by oering free bus access for all riders. • Public Employees Ride Free: Topeka Metro celebrates Public Service Recognition Week by oering free bus access to federal, state, county, and city government workers. • Dump the Pump Day: Similar to other transit agencies, Topeka Metro provides free bus service to all riders on Dump the Pump Day each June to try to attract new bus riders. • Election Day: Like many transit agencies, Topeka Metro oers free bus access to all riders on Election Day each November. • Remember Rosa Parks Day: Topeka Metro oers free bus access to all riders for one day each December in recognition of civil rights activist Rosa Parks. • Free Aer 5 p.m.: Topeka Metro oers free transit access to all riders aer 5 p.m. on several periods during the year. It should be noted that sometimes this promotion is oered for a month. However, this promotion is considered a short-term promotion since Topeka Metro bus service runs only until 7:30 p.m. It should be noted that some of these fare-free promotions are provided under a partnership with the recipient organization (e.g., university, schools, city), which provides some direct com- pensation for these promotions. Families Ride Free (Spring Fling) 3rd Week in March •Started in 2013 Volunteers Ride Free One Week in April •Started in 2014 No Pay Earth Day April 22 •Started in 2013 Public Employees Ride Free 1st Week of May •Started in 2013 Dump the Pump Day 3rd Thursday in June •Started in 2012 Election Day 1st Tuesday after Nov. 1 •Started in 2016 Remember Rosa Parks Day Dec. 1 •Started in 2015 Families Ride Free (Winter Fling) Late Dec. to Early Jan. •Started in 2013 Free After 5 p.m. Various Periods •Started in 2016 Figure 8-3. Short-term Topeka Metro Fare promotions.

74 Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Analysis, Causes, and Responses 8.3 Data Sources This study used data from different sources, which are shown in Table 8-1. Unlinked bus trip per route and VRM were obtained from Topeka Metro. Topeka Metro has 12 fixed bus routes that provided an average of about 4,434 UPTs on weekdays and about 2,387 on Saturdays (Topeka Metro, 2018). The details of each of the fare-free promotions were defined from archived Topeka Metro press releases and verified with Topeka Metro. Other variables like popu- lation, gas prices, and weather were obtained from publicly available data sources that are shown in Table 8-1. 8.3.1 Fare-Free Promotion Variables The variables of interest in this study are related to fare-free promotions. This study explored long-term promotions. The reason behind this is that the dependent variable is the total monthly bus trips by route; therefore, the impacts of short-term promotions that are less than a month might not have a sizable effect in a monthly model. This study defined five variables to explore the impacts of different fare-free promotions, as shown in Table 8-2. Each of these variables is defined as the number of fare-free service days per month. The service days are defined as days of the month minus public holidays and Sundays. (Topeka Metro does not offer transit service on Sundays.) For example, Veterans Ride Free for November 2019 is defined as 24 free-service days, as shown below: 24 (Veterans Ride Free) = 30 (days of the month) − 4 (Sundays) − 2 (Thanksgiving holiday) Variable Data Source Monthly UPTs Topeka Metro Bus VRM Topeka Metro Fare-free promotions Topeka Metro Population One-year American Community Survey Employment Bureau of Labor Statistics Gas prices Energy Information Administration Weather data National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Table 8-1. Data sources for Topeka Metro Fare promotion analysis. Variable Definition Jurors Ride Free Number of free-service days for jurors Students Ride Free Number of free-service days for middle and high school students (mid- August to mid-May) Kids Ride Free Number of free-service days for kids during the summer (mid-May to mid-August) Veterans Ride Free Number of free-service days for veterans each November Seniors (65+) Ride Free Number of free-service days for seniors each May Table 8-2. Fare-free promotion variables.

The Impact of Fare-Free Promotions on Bus Ridership in Topeka, Kansas 75   8.4 Results Using fixed-effects regression techniques similar to those described in Appendix G of TCRP Web-Only Document 74, this study assessed the impacts of different fare-free promotions on bus ridership. The dependent variable (the variable being explained/predicted) was the total bus trips per route per month. The explanatory variables were the fare-free promotion variables described in Section 8.3 and other commonly used explanatory variables, such as VRM, popula- tion and employment, gas price, and weather. Various model formulations were tested, and the results of the preferred model are shown in Table 8-3. Consistent with other results in this study and in the literature, the results of this analysis suggest that the number of VRM is a significant positive predictor for bus ridership, as shown in Table 8-3. This coefficient indicates each additional VRM on a route is associated with an additional 0.42 unlinked bus trips. This finding is expected, as providing more service is associ- ated with higher ridership (Evans et al., 2004). Regarding fare promotions, the model’s results indicate that each free-service day for students (middle and high school) is associated with an average increase of 37.7 UPTs per route. This finding suggests that offering free transit access to middle and high school students resulted in a significant ridership increase in Topeka. It should be noted that the school district does pay for these fares at a negotiated rate per pass; however, since this cost is not directly paid by the students, it was considered in this analysis as a promotion. Similarly, the model suggests that each free-service day for kids during the summer is associated with an average increase of 54.5 UPTs per route. These two findings suggest that Topeka Metro’s emphasis on providing free transit access to young people has had significant positive results. The model results displayed in Table 8-3 also show that each free-service day for veterans is associated with an average increase of 9.1 UPTs per route. Similarly, the findings suggest that each free-service day for seniors is associated with an average increase of 15 UPTs per route. These findings indicate that offering free transit access to veterans in November and seniors during May has resulted in significant positive increases in bus ridership. Finally, the model results reveal that offering free transit access to jurors had a positive impact on ridership; however, it is not statistically significant, which suggests it is effectively zero. Dependent Variable: Unlinked Bus Trips per Route per Month Preferred Model VRM 0.42** Students Ride Free 37.7** Kids Ride Free 54.5** Veterans Ride Free 9.1** Seniors (65+) Ride Free 15*** Jurors Ride Free 10 Population and employment (1,000s) Not significant Gas price ($) Significant positive effect Snowfall (inches) Significant negative effect Summer Controlled for differences between seasons Routes Controlled for differences between routes Years Controlled for differences between years Number of observations 552 Variable significance: ***p-value < 0.01; **p-value < 0.05; *p-value < 0.10; no star = not significant Table 8-3. Impacts of fare-free promotions on bus ridership results.

76 Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Analysis, Causes, and Responses The results of this study also suggest that population and employment had a positive impact on ridership, but it is not significant. The reason behind this is likely the small change in popula- tion and employment during the study period. This finding is consistent with prior studies that found changes in population had limited effects on bus ridership (Ederer et al., 2019; Berrebi and Watkins, 2020). The results of this study also indicate that increases in gas prices have a positive significant impact on bus ridership, which is consistent with prior findings (Currie and Phung, 2007). Additionally, the results of the model suggest that snowfall has significant negative impacts on bus ridership (Ngo, 2019; Brakewood et al., 2015). This finding is expected since less transit usage is expected during snow. This finding is consistent with the outcomes of prior studies. Last, the findings from the study for fare-free promotions are supported by a quick com- parison with ridership statistics calculated for some of the promotions that were obtained from Topeka Metro for 2019. The 2019 ridership statistics showed that during the promo- tions period, the numbers of trips made by veterans, seniors, and kids were 6,168 (November), 10,099 (May), and 42,800 (mid-May to mid-August), respectively. These statistics were con- verted to average trips per route per day by dividing the total ridership by the number of fixed bus routes, then by the number of free service days of each promotion. These calculations showed that in 2019, the average estimated trips per route per day for veterans, seniors, and kids were 17, 32, and 44, respectively. These trip rates from the 2019 statistics are comparable to those found in Table 8-3 for the longer-term analysis, which provides a confirmation of the validity of the analysis. The slight difference between the two sets of statistics is likely due to two reasons. • First, the regression model estimates the change in trips, which is presumably the number of new trips generated during the promotion. However, the 2019 statistics show all total trips made by a specific group. Some riders could have been using transit with or without the pro- motion, but they obtained a free ride because the promotion was in place. • Second, the ridership statistics show the usage of these promotions in 2019 only, while the model estimates the average usage in the period 2015–2019. 8.5 Conclusions, Discussion, and Implications of the Fare-Free Promotions Analysis While many transit agencies in the United States are concerned about the recent transit rider- ship declines, Topeka Metro is one of a few agencies that has experienced a ridership increase. One apparent differentiator between Topeka Metro and other transit agencies that could potentially explain Topeka’s increased bus ridership is Topeka Metro’s use of fare-free promo- tions as a means of promoting bus usage among different groups in the community. This study conducted an empirical analysis to explore the impacts of different fare-free promotions on bus ridership in Topeka. The findings of this study suggest that fare promotions for middle and high school students, kids, veterans, and seniors have resulted in significant increases in bus ridership. The results of this analysis are important for agencies as they explore ways to get more people to ride transit to reverse bus ridership declines. Although the findings of this study are positive, it is important to note that offering free bus passes or fare-free promotions to large groups of riders may place a financial burden on the transit agency’s operational budget. Topeka Metro has kept a farebox recovery ratio between 10%–13% during FY 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 (Berberich Trahan & Co., 2017; Berberich Trahan Fare-free promotions for middle and high school students, kids, veterans, and seniors have resulted in significant increases in bus ridership in Topeka.

The Impact of Fare-Free Promotions on Bus Ridership in Topeka, Kansas 77   & Co., 2018; Berberich Trahan & Co., 2019). This steady farebox recovery ratio can likely be attributed to two factors. First, Topeka Metro partners with other local agencies, like Topeka public schools for the middle and high school students promotion; these partnerships bring in some revenue that offset the lost fares to some extent. Second, Topeka Metro offers staggered promotions that target certain groups during different months. Although Topeka Metro’s farebox recovery ratio has remained relatively steady, the transit agency has faced recent budgetary chal- lenges; in December 2019 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic), the agency cut some bus service due to reductions in local funding (Topeka Metro, 2019).