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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF's Support of Paleoclimate Research: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26377.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Rachel Silvern and Alexandra Skrivanek, Rapporteurs Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Ocean Studies Board Polar Research Board Division on Earth and Life Studies

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation Award No. 2035238. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-27184-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-27184-3 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26377 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 3313; http://www.nap.edu. Cover image: Photo of Aialik Bay, Alaska, by Kaustubh Thirumalai, University of Arizona. Copyright 2021 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Identifying New Community-Driven Science Themes for NSF’s Support of Paleoclimate Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26377.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

PLANNING COMMITTEE ON IDENTIFYING NEW COMMUNITY-DRIVEN SCIENCE THEMES FOR NSF’S SUPPORT OF PALEO PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE (P2C2): A WORKSHOP ANDREA DUTTON (Chair), University of Wisconsin–Madison TRIPTI BHATTACHARYA, Syracuse University JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts–Amherst CHRISTO BUIZERT, Oregon State University NATALIE BURLS, George Mason University SARAH FEAKINS, University of Southern California ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ (NAS), University of California, Davis KAUSTUBH THIRUMALAI, University of Arizona National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff LAUREN EVERETT, Senior Program Officer (until June 2021) RACHEL SILVERN, Associate Program Officer ALEXANDRA SKRIVANEK, Associate Program Officer ANNE LINN, Scholar (until April 2021) MEGAN MAY, Associate Program Officer (until March 2021) BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Research Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE1 MARY GLACKIN (Chair), The Weather Company, an IBM Business CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington JOHN C. CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley BRADLEY R. COLMAN, The Climate Corporation BART E. CROES, California Air Resources Board ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists VANDA GRUBIŠIĆ, National Center for Atmospheric Research ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin-Madison AMY MCGOVERN, University of Oklahoma JONATHAN PATZ, University of Wisconsin-Madison J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD (NAS/NAE), University of Georgia ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan DAVID W. TITLEY, U.S. Navy (ret.), Pennsylvania State University ARADHNA TRIPATI, University of California, Los Angeles DUANE E. WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory ELKE WEBBER, Princeton University National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer RACHEL SILVERN, Associate Program Officer SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Business Partner RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Research Associate AMY MITSUMORI, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate KYLE ALDRIDGE, Program Assistant 1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering; NAS, National Academy of Sciences. vi

Acknowledgments This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Pincelli Hull, Yale University Darrell Kaufman, Northern Arizona University Bette Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research Kaustubh Thirumalai, University of Arizona Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by James W. Hurrell, Colorado State University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies. vii

Contents Overview ...............................................................................................................1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................3 Background and Motivation for the Workshop, 7 Workshop Planning and Structure, 8 Understanding Past Climate Forcings and Sensitivity .......................................... 11 Understanding Drivers of Past Climate Change, 11 Reconstructing Global Climate Change and Climate Sensitivity, 18 Glacial, Ocean, and Land Processes and Feedbacks ............................................. 25 Ice-Sheet and High-Latitude Proxies and Feedbacks, 25 Ocean Proxies and Feedbacks, 32 Terrestrial Proxies and Feedbacks, 39 Resolving Regional Climate Change: Advancing and Synthesizing Knowledge .......................................................................................................... 47 Hydroclimate and Habitability, 47 Accessing Hydroclimate Archives and Fostering Proxy Innovation, 49 Tools for Understanding Modes of Oceanic and Atmospheric Variability, 54 Challenges of Chronology, Inter-Site, and Proxy-Model Comparison, 58 How the Paleoclimate Community Can Better Engage on BAJEDI Issues ............. 61 Closing Thoughts ................................................................................................ 65 References .......................................................................................................... 69 Appendix A: Statement of Task ........................................................................... 79 Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members................. 81 Appendix C: Workshop Agenda........................................................................... 85 ix

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Sediments, ice, corals, and trees are just some of the natural storehouses of information that help tell the complicated history of Earth’s climate. Paleoclimate researchers use these “proxies,” in combination with numerical models, to gain understanding of the magnitudes, rates, and drivers of past climate variability with the goal of informing understanding of current and future change in Earth’s climate system. The Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) program of the National Science Foundation (NSF) has advanced paleoclimate research through proxy development, data-model comparisons, and synthesis work, and has facilitated interdisciplinary collaboration that has contributed to the growth of the field. This new publication highlights discussions at a June 2021 workshop that focused on identifying potential future paleoclimate research directions to further advance understanding of past climate and better inform the public and decision makers about the expected future.

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