Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models (2021)

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100 Ivan, J. N., S. Al Mamun, N. Ravishanker, B. Persaud, C. Lyon, R. Srinivasan, B. Lan, S. Smith, T. Saleem, M. Abdel-Aty, J. Lee, A. Farid, and J.-H. Wang (2021), NCHRP Web-Only Document 295: Improved Prediction Models for Crash Types and Crash Severities. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C. Liu, W., and Cela, J. (2008), Count Data Models in SAS, SAS Global Forum 2008: Statistics and Data Analysis (Paper 371-2008). Lord, D. (2008), Methodology for Estimating the Variance and Confidence Intervals for the Estimate of the Product of Baseline Models and AMFs, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 40, pp. 1013-1017. Lyon, C., Persaud, B., and Gross, F. (2016), The Calibrator: An SPF Calibration and Assessment Tool: User Guide, Federal Highway Administration, Report FHWA-SA-17-016, Washington, D.C. Miaou, S.P. (1996), Measuring the Goodness-of-Fit of Accident Prediction Models, Federal Highway Administration, FHWA-RD-96-040, Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Srinivasan, R., G. Ullman, M. Finley, and F. Council (2011), Use of Empirical Bayesian Methods to Estimate Crash Modification Factors for Daytime Versus Nighttime Work Zones, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2241, pp. 29–38. Srinivasan, R., and K. Bauer (2013). Safety Performance Function Development Guide: Developing Jurisdiction-Specific SPFs, Report FHWA-SA-14-005, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., September 2013. Srinivasan, R., M. Colety, G. Bahar, B. Crowther, M. Farmen (2016), Estimation of Calibration Functions for Predicting Crashes on Rural Two-Lane Roads in Arizona, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2583, pp. 17–24. Wood, G.R. (2002), Generalized Linear Accident Models and Goodness of Fit Testing, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 34, pp. 417-427. Wood, A.G., L.J. Mountain, R.D. Connors, M.J. Maher, and K. Ropkins (2013), Updating Outdated Predictive Accident Models, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 55, pp. 54-66.