NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
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The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Cover: Figures from B.J. Soldo and E.M. Agree, "America's Elderly" [Population Bulletin 43(3); pp. 10-11]. Used with permission.
JACQUELINE L. ANGEL, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin
FRANK D. BEAN, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin
RICHARD V. BURKHAUSER, Center for Policy Research, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
VICKI A. FREEDMAN, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
OMER R. GALLE, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin
DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, Metropolitan Studies Program and Economics Department, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
KEVIN KINSELLA, Center for International Research, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
RONALD D. LEE, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
KENNETH G. MANTON, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University
LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California
GEORGE C. MYERS, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University
SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
JOSEPH F. QUINN, Department of Economics, Boston College
TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING, Metropolitan Studies Program and Economics Department, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University
ERIC STALLARD, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University
PAUL TAUBMAN, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
DOUGLAS A. WOLF, Center for Policy Research, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
RONALD D. LEE (Chair),
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
Population, Health, and Nutrition Department, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
JOHN B. CASTERLINE,
Department of Sociology, Brown University
KENNETH H. HILL,
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University
DEAN T. JAMISON,
Center for Pacific Rim Studies, University of California, Los Angeles
LINDA G. MARTIN,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
MARK R. MONTGOMERY,
Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook
ANNE R. PEBLEY,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
SAMUEL H. PRESTON,
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania and Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford
RONALD R. RINDFUSS,
Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
BETH J. SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
Population Research Center, University of Chicago
AMY O. TSUI,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JOHN HAAGA, Director
LINDA G. MARTIN, Director*
BARNEY COHEN, Research Associate
SUSAN COKE, Senior Project Assistant*
CHRISTINE A. COSTELLO, Program Officer
KAREN A. FOOTE, Research Associate
JAMES N. GRIBBLE, Program Officer**
CAROLE L. JOLLY, Senior Program Officer
PAULA J. MELVILLE, Senior Project Assistant
SUSAN SHUTTLEWORTH, Senior Project Assistant
The Committee on Population was established in 1983 to conduct scientific assessments of major population issues and to provide a forum for the discussion and analysis of important public policy issues related to population. It is concerned with questions about the measurement, determinants, and consequences of changes in population size, growth, and distribution that are important to scientists and policy makers in both developed and developing nations.
The committee has a history of activities relating to the demography of aging. Of particular concern have been cross-national research and policy issues, as reflected in its 1988 workshop on aging in developing countries, sponsored by the National Institute of Aging, which focused on health, family, and economic issues. However, the committee has also had an interest in domestic issues of population aging, exemplified in its 1987 publication, Demographic Change and the Well-Being of Children and the Elderly. That report, which summarized the discussion and included three papers from a 1985 workshop, considered the status of children and the elderly in the United States, possible demographic factors influencing their status, and their well-being relative to groups of similar ages in other developed countries. The report also discussed the effects of changes in age structure on the economic and fiscal health of the country, at both the local and the federal levels. More recently, the committee cosponsored, with the Division of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention of the Institute of Medicine and the Committee on National Statistics of the National Re-
search Council, a workshop on forecasting life expectancy, with an emphasis on the United States.
In January 1992, at the request of the Office of Demography of Aging of the National Institute on Aging, the Committee on Population convened a small planning meeting of experts on the demography of aging. This group proposed developing a volume that delineates the field of the demography of aging, highlights the contributions that the demography of aging can make to policy formulation, and summarizes what is known and promising areas for future research in specific subfields. At the planning meeting, it was proposed that papers be commissioned on eight topics:
formal demography of age structure and the life course;
retirement and labor force behavior;
wealth and income;
social and medical support: division of labor among families, market, and state;
socioeconomic differentials in health and mortality; and
migration and population redistribution.
The Committee accepted the proposal of the planning group and began to develop the plan for this volume. Authors were selected for each topic, and they were asked to address the following cross-cutting issues, when possible:
data availability and needs;
conceptual issues (e.g., micro versus macro approaches, cohort aspects);
prospects for international comparisons;
The committee subsequently decided to add a ninth paper on aging research in developing countries. This set of topics is believed to provide an extensive road map to the subject comprised by the term "demography of aging."
This volume presents revised versions of the nine papers, which were originally presented and discussed at a workshop at the National Research Council in Washington, D.C., on December 10-11, 1992. Also included as an appendix is a letter report to the National Institute on Aging from the committee that summarizes the committee's assessments of and recommen-
dations for data collection and research that emerged from the papers and discussion.
The Committee on Population and the editors of this volume are grateful to the National Institute on Aging and in particular to the Office of Demography of Aging and its director, Richard Suzman, for financial support, guidance, and assistance. We would also like to thank the participants at the December 1992 workshop for their insightful comments and suggestions and especially recognize the contributions of the formal discussants: James M. Poterba, James W. Vaupel, George Kaplan, Lee Lillard, Robert J. Willis, John B. Casterline, Linda J. Waite, George C. Myers, and John Knodel.
Susan M. Coke, Paula J. Melville, and Susan Shuttleworth all provided superb administrative assistance in organizing the workshop and producing this volume. Florence Poillon and Mendelle T. Berenson skillfully edited the papers, Elaine McGarraugh meticulously prepared the volume for publication, and Eugenia Grohman patiently guided us through the review and production processes. We thank them all. We are also enormously grateful to Barney Cohen for overseeing the final stage of the project and for keeping us more or less on schedule.
LINDA G. MARTIN AND SAMUEL H. PRESTON, EDITORS
Retirement and Labor Force Behavior of the Elderly
Income, Wealth, and Intergenerational Economic Relations of the Aged
Care of the Elderly: Division of Labor Among the Family, Market, and State
Medical Demography: Interaction of Disability Dynamics and Mortality
Socioeconomic Differences in Adult Mortality and Health Status
Geographic Concentration, Migration, and Population Redistribution Among the Elderly
Research on the Demography of Aging in Developing Countries