National Academies Press: OpenBook

Engineering in Society (1985)

Chapter: Potential Impacts on Society

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Suggested Citation:"Potential Impacts on Society." National Research Council. 1985. Engineering in Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/586.
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Page 59
Suggested Citation:"Potential Impacts on Society." National Research Council. 1985. Engineering in Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/586.
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Page 60

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ENGINEERING AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS 59 industry does not feel that schools are turning out a product suitable for its needs, or if experienced engineers are felt to require some "retooling," this is certainly an effective approach. Industry training is not the only avenue of continuing education, however. Schools offer part-time and evening curricula geared to the practicing engineer, particularly in urban areas. This option is often taken solely on the initiative of the individual engineer, perhaps with tuition reimbursement; there is also the possibility of corporations offering part- time daytime schooling as an employee benefit for engineers in certain specializations. Other opportunities for continuing education are offered by professional societies and commercial houses in the form of short courses, seminars, and correspondence courses. Finally, computer-aided instruction at home is becoming increasingly viable with the spread of home computers. The panel expects course-ware offered through this medium to become quite diversified and sophisticated. Thus, there are many opportunities for continuing education, with the majority of them available to any engineer. THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON EMPLOYMENT In early nineteenth-century England, as the Industrial Revolution was taking place in that country, sporadic outbursts of sabotage of looms and other steam-powered factory machinery began to occur. The attacks were being made by groups of workmen inspired by the example of Ned Ludd, a possibly mythical Leicestershire weaver. These spontaneous protests by "Luddites" actually delayed the implementation of new technology in certain English industrial centers. In the present-day, the shadow of the Luddite rebellion continues to fall across the concept of automation as one of the potential consequences of technological change. Potential Impacts on Society In terms of effects on employment in general, the most significant technological change in the offing is automation—in its modern form, the introduction of computerized systems (whether robotic or not) in the workplace that replace or obviate human workers. One result is technological unemployment or "displacement" of workers. This is a potent political and economic issue. Technology ("mechanization") was blamed by some for joblessness during the Depression, although the actual causes were quite different (Layton, 1973). It is not even certain that large-scale job displacement will now take place. It is likely

ENGINEERING AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS 60 instead to be a highly dynamic process, with adjustments being made continuously (Office of Technology Assessment, 1984). However, whether or not severe displacement does occur, the panel believes that public perception of it is the key issue. It may well be that, like environmental issues in the late 1960s and early 1970s, concerns about the employment effects of emerging technologies will now be the basis for strong frictions in society. These concerns may do more harm to both human and engineering interests than the environmental issue did and must therefore be addressed explicitly. The outlook is for substantial displacement of workers over the short run in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The latter is often overlooked; in fact, automation may displace service-sector jobs at a rapid rate. One has only to think of word processing machines with remote printers that greatly increase the output of the individual (and are increasingly used by professionals rather than typists), or large copying machines that auto-feed at high speed, collate, and bind automatically, to begin to envision the scale of effects on the office alone. In any case, it is impossible to predict the amount of displacement that will occur in either the service or manufacturing sector—too many variables are involved. We do not know, for example, how the growth of the service sector is affecting technology, or how technology will respond to new services. The rate of implementation is an unknown, as is the capacity of workers to adapt by any of a number of means. Another important unknown is the degree of resistance that American workers will demonstrate against the implementation of the new technologies. It is certain that automation will also create jobs at a substantial rate in both the service and manufacturing sectors, although in the service fields these will probably be lower-skilled, low-wage jobs in health services, food services, etc. However, the panel believes that new jobs in this sector will not offset jobs lost or diminished through the introduction of automation. Taking the long view, the panel concludes that it is possible to be optimistic about the effects of increasing automation on general employment. The economy has historically been very inventive in creating new jobs. Because changes in technology usually bring new industries and increases in demand, they generally alter employment rather than reduce it—although the time-scale can be sufficiently long so that harm to individuals is not prevented. For example, people were displaced from cottage-industry weaving in Europe in the eighteenth century by "automated" looms; but a century later even greater numbers were employed in industrial weaving. Because career mobility is

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