Engineering in Society (1985)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 • Some educational options that afford greater flexibility are: —emphasis on basic studies in the first two to three years —five-year degree programs —cooperative education —continuing education at home, in school, or on the job. Managing Change In terms of its effect on society, automation in the form of computerized systems is the most significant technological change presently in the offing. The issue of technological unemployment may come to have even more negative effects than did the environmental issue. The outlook is for substantial displacement of workers in both the manufacturing and service sectors, but it is impossible to predict the amount of either. Automation will also create jobs at a substantial rate in both the manufacturing and service sectors, but not sufficiently to offset jobs lost. Computer-aided design and manufacturing systems will likely displace many engineers in the manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, with reduction of the work force in general, engineers are expected to represent a higher percentage of the manufacturing work force than they do now. Because changes in technology usually bring new industries and new demand, they generally alter employment rather than reduce it. If change is managed well by society, an overall improvement of the quality of life can be achieved. As in the case of environmental problems in the 1970s, the government may have to intervene (directly or indirectly) in labor displacement if the application of technology is to proceed smoothly. What is needed are carefully thought-out social and technological interventions. OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE In the past, the engineering supply system has demonstrated sufficient flexibility to respond to changing demand. However, changes in the nature and scope of business, in technology, and in societal attitudes and values will affect the demand for engineers and engineering-related products. The elasticity of the supply system will be tested. In addition, unforeseen changes in the engineering environment may further stress the supply system. To acquire some understanding of how the system might function under possible future conditions, the panel proposed a set of hypothetical situations ("scenarios") that would 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 affect engineering to one extent or another. The six scenarios examined were: 1. Continued development toward unmanned factory operation, resulting in the United States regaining world leadership in "smokestack" industries (or, alternatively, losing its competitiveness in manufacturing altogether). 2. Attainment of a recognized capability for commercial utilization of space facilitated by reliable space transportation and permanent in- orbit space manufacturing and laboratory facilities. 3. A major new environmental crisis: large-scale contamination of groundwater resources. 4. Widespread adoption of automated teaching via computer. 5. Rapid shift to use of composite materials as a replacement for metals. 6. Sharp fluctuations in the federal budget for defense R&D. None of the scenarios examined by the panel appeared to exceed the capacity of the engineering supply system to respond and adapt. But it should be noted that the hypothetical scenarios were examined in isolation, as if each were the only unusual stress being felt at a given time. In reality it is likely that two or more such events would be taking place simultaneously, with combined effects that would be much more difficult to predict and, possibly, to withstand. Because of the uncertainty about what events—and how many—might occur that would affect engineering, it cannot be simply assumed that the engineering supply system is well equipped to meet any conceivable future. Each of the scenarios would create stress within the engineering community. Even today there are numerous problems of engineering manpower supply, particularly in the area of education. Many of these problems have their basis in societal attitudes toward engineering and technology, or in a lack of public understanding of the technology development process, or in a lack of awareness on the part of engineers of the social ramifications of their work. Close attention to these problem areas is needed if the interaction between engineering and the American society of which it is a part is to continue to function satisfactorily. Accordingly, the panel directs the reader to the conclusions and recommendations presented at the end of the report.