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PANEL ON MODELING AND SIMULATION
GEORGE F. CARRIER,
Harvard University,
Chair
PAUL K. DAVIS,
RAND and the RAND Graduate School,
Vice Chair
DONALD K. BLUMENTHAL,
Gualala, California
RICHARD BRONOWITZ,
Center for Naval Analyses
JOHN C. DOYLE,
California Institute of Technology
DONALD P. GAVER,
Naval Postgraduate School
DON E. HIHN,
Charleston, South Carolina
RICHARD J. IVANETICH,
Institute for Defense Analyses
JOHN P. LEHOCZKY,
Carnegie Mellon University
DAVID L. McDOWELL,
Georgia Institute of Technology
DUNCAN C. MILLER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DAVID R. OLIVER,
Northrop Grumman Corporation
GABRIEL ROBINS,
University of Virginia
BERNARD P. ZEIGLER,
University of Arizona
Invited Participant
BEN P. WISE,
Science Applications International Corporation
Navy Liaison Representatives
CDR THOMAS COSGROVE,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N858D
CAPT JAY KISTLER,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N6M
Consultants
LEE M. HUNT
SIDNEY G. REED, JR.
JAMES G. WILSON
Staff
RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director,
Naval Studies Board
PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer
CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR FUTURE NAVAL FORCES
DAVID R. HEEBNER,
Science Applications International Corporation (retired),
Study Director
ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR.,
The Baciocco Group, Inc.
ALAN BERMAN,
Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University
NORMAN E. BETAQUE,
Logistics Management Institute
GERALD A. CANN,
Raytheon Company
GEORGE F. CARRIER,
Harvard University
SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN,
Institute for Defense Analyses (retired)
ALEXANDER FLAX,
Potomac, Maryland
WILLIAM J. MORAN,
Redwood City, California
ROBERT J. MURRAY,
Center for Naval Analyses
ROBERT B. OAKLEY,
National Defense University
JOSEPH B. REAGAN,
Saratoga, California
VINCENT VITTO,
Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Navy Liaison Representatives
RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR.,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)
VADM THOMAS B. FARGO,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996)
RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91
CDR DOUGLASS BIESEL,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N812C1
PAUL G. BLATCH,
Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E
Marine Corps Liaison Representative
LtGen
PAUL K. VAN RIPER,
USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command
Consultants
LEE M. HUNT
SIDNEY G. REED, JR.
JAMES G. WILSON
Staff
RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director,
Naval Studies Board
PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer
CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant
NAVAL STUDIES BOARD
DAVID R. HEEBNER,
Science Applications International Corporation (retired),
Chair
GEORGE M. WHITESIDES,
Harvard University,
Vice Chair
ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR.,
The Baciocco Group, Inc.
ALAN BERMAN,
Center for Naval Analyses
NORMAN E. BETAQUE,
Logistics Management Institute
NORVAL L. BROOME,
Mitre Corporation
GERALD A. CANN,
Raytheon Company
SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN,
Institute for Defense Analyses (retired),
Special Advisor
ANTHONY J. DeMARIA,
DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc.
JOHN F. EGAN,
Lockheed Martin Corporation
ROBERT HUMMEL,
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
DAVID W. McCALL,
Far Hills, New Jersey
ROBERT J. MURRAY,
Center for Naval Analyses
ROBERT B. OAKLEY,
National Defense University
WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS,
Northstar Associates, Inc.
MARA G. PRENTISS,
Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University
HERBERT RABIN,
University of Maryland
JULIE JCH RYAN,
Booz, Allen and Hamilton
HARRISON SHULL,
Monterey, California
KEITH A. SMITH,
Vienna, Virginia
ROBERT C. SPINDEL,
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
DAVID L. STANFORD,
Science Applications International Corporation
H. GREGORY TORNATORE,
Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University
J. PACE VanDEVENDER,
Prosperity Institute
VINCENT VITTO,
Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BRUCE WALD,
Arlington Education Consultants
Navy Liaison Representatives
RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR.,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)
VADM THOMAS B. FARGO,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996)
RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91
RONALD N. KOSTOFF,
Office of Naval Research
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS
ROBERT J. HERMANN,
United Technologies Corporation,
Co-Chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER,
University of Colorado,
Co-Chair
PETER M. BANKS,
Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
LAWRENCE D. BROWN,
University of Pennsylvania
RONALD G. DOUGLAS,
Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES,
University of California at Santa Barbara
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS,
Elf Atochem North America, Inc.
JOHN E. HOPCROFT,
Cornell University
RHONDA J. HUGHES,
Bryn Mawr College
SHIRLEY A. JACKSON,
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
KENNETH H. KELLER,
University of Minnesota
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN,
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARGARET G. KIVELSON,
University of California at Los Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK,
Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER,
University of Pennsylvania
THOMAS A. PRINCE,
California Institute of Technology
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS,
Brookhaven National Laboratory
L.E. SCRIVEN,
University of Minnesota
SHMUEL WINOGRAD,
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
CHARLES A. ZRAKET,
Mitre Corporation (retired)
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
Preface
This report is part of the nine-volume series entitled Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force. The series is the product of an 18-month study requested by the Chief of Naval Operations, who, in a memorandum on November 28, 1995, asked the National Research Council to initiate through its Naval Studies Board a thorough examination of the impact of advancing technology on the form and capability of the naval forces to the year 2035. To carry out this study, eight technical panels were organized under the committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces to examine all of the specific technical areas called out in the terms of reference.
The study's terms of reference (Appendix A) asked for an identification of “present and emerging technologies that relate to the full breadth of Navy and Marine Corps mission capabilities,” with specific attention to “(1) information warfare, electronic warfare, and the use of surveillance assets; (2) mine warfare and submarine warfare; (3) Navy and Marine Corps weaponry in the context of effectiveness on target; [and] (4) issues in caring for and maximizing effectiveness of Navy and Marine Corps human resources.” The terms of reference went on to identify 10 technical areas for special attention. One involved modeling and simulation (M&S): “The naval service is increasingly dependent upon modeling and simulation. The study should review the overall architecture of models and simulation in the DoD (DoN, JCS, and OSD), the ability of the models to represent real world situations, and their merits as tools upon which to make technical and force composition decisions. ”
It was against this background that the Panel on Modeling and Simulation was constituted and asked to develop the present report. Upon reviewing the terms of reference and defining a feasible scope of work, the panel noted that
recent documents (some of them produced after the terms of reference were created) already provide a reasonable architecture-level survey of the Defense Department's M&S, as well as a vision statement. In particular, the Office of the Secretary of Defense's (OSD's) Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) has developed a substantial Master Plan for M&S, the purpose of which is to establish a common technical framework for DOD's M&S. 1 Given this body of existing material, the panel focused its efforts on key issues that have previously received little or insufficient attention. The objectives the panel set for itself, then, were (1) to clarify why the Department of the Navy leadership should care and be concerned about the substantive content and comprehensibility of M&S; (2) to assess what the Navy Department (and DOD) may need to do to benefit fully from the opportunities presented by M&S technology; (3) to clarify what M&S can and cannot be expected to accomplish in aiding decisions on technical, force-composition, and operations planning issues; and (4) to present priorities for M&S-related research.
The panel made no attempt to conduct a full survey of M&S relevant to the Department of the Navy. Much of the report deals with large-scale joint models such as those used in campaign planning, the evaluation of systems and new doctrinal concepts, or joint training —e.g., M&S such as the Joint Warfare System (JWARS) and the Joint Simulation System (JSIMS) systems now under development. The report has less to say about engineering- or engagement-level models, although it discusses the important role of simulation-based acquisition. Finally, this report is not a “forecast,” nor does it lay out “roadmaps” for what should be done decade by decade for the next 40 years. Instead, the panel has chosen to focus on a chronic problem that took many years to develop and will take many years to deal with effectively—the lack of a good military-science research foundation on which to base the modeling and simulation that it so much depends on—and on priorities for remedying that problem over the years ahead.
Panel membership included experts in the research for and development and application of modeling and simulation, in both defense and nondefense domains. It also included experts in force planning; operations planning; applied mathematics, including probability and statistics; modeling and simulation theory; physics, including statistical mechanics; control theory; computer science; electrical engineering; operations research; gaming; and strategic planning.
The panel met eight times to receive briefings from Service and industry
1 |
See Defense Modeling and Simulation Office. 1995a. Department of Defense Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Master Plan, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, Washington, D.C., October; Kaminski, Paul G., Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology. 1996. “DMSO ‘Modeling and Simulation, '” Keynote address at DOD Fifth Annual Industry Briefing, Alexandria, Va., May 22; and other materials—both formal and informal—available from the DMSO or the DMSO 's World Wide Web site at http://www.dmso.mil . |
representatives, visit facilities, deliberate, and draft its report. It also participated in the three plenary meetings for the overall study. The first plenary meeting, in March 1996, established organization and a common starting point for the entire study. It included presentations by the Chief of Naval Operations and other high-level officials of the Navy Department, the other Services, the Defense Department, and industry. The subsequent plenaries were for drafting, comparison and integration across panels, the working out of cross-cutting issues, and synthesis (reflected primarily in Volume 1: Overview). The result follows. The report (which consists of a summary, the main report, and a set of appendixes) discusses modeling and simulation as a foundation technology for many developments that will be central to the Department of the Navy and Department of Defense over the next 3 to 4 decades.
The panel report is, of course, a product of the whole. However, the Vice Chair, Paul Davis, organized and led report preparation. He and Richard Ivanetich also compiled the panel's work and briefed it to study leadership along the way.
Acknowledgments
The Panel on Modeling and Simulation is indebted to many people who provided briefings, scientific papers, or discussion time. It gives special thanks to Darryl Morgeson and Chris Barrett of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Jeff Grossman of the Naval Research and Development Laboratory (NRaD), Les Parrish of SPAWAR, Bill Stevens and Jeff Steinman of Metron, Inc., Henson Graves of Lockheed Martin, Tom Skillman of Boeing, Timothy Horrigan of Horrigan Analytics, CDR Dennis McBride, USN, of the Office of Naval Research, and Wayne Hughes of the Naval Postgraduate School. CAPT Jay Kistler, USN, was the panel's contact with the Navy, the study's sponsor. Both he and CDR McBride provided useful briefings and contacts.
The panel also acknowledges RAND's courtesy in supplying several of the figures used to illustrate concepts discussed in the report.