The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

In 1995, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and the Air Force Phillips Laboratory requested a review of their seismic research programs in support of nuclear test verification efforts. For this task, the National Research Council's Committee on Seismology appointed a panel of 10 seismologists. At the group's first meeting, however, the sponsors described Department of Defense (DoD) proposals to eliminate the Air Force programs and to consolidate all of the DoD research efforts related to nuclear test monitoring. As described in this report, these proposals were approved and eventually implemented in fiscal year 1997, raising obvious difficulties for the work of the panel.

The organizational changes at DoD occurred while the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was under negotiation in Geneva. To ensure compliance with the CTBT's ban on nuclear explosions, a global seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic, and radionuclide data collection system is to be deployed as part of an International Monitoring System (IMS). The United States has indicated that it would monitor international treaty compliance using these unclassified IMS data, together with additional National Technical Means (NTM). To meet this challenge, the newly created Nuclear Treaty Program Office (NTPO) within DoD plans to broaden the support for research in the Defense Department's treaty monitoring efforts. Recognizing that the National Research Council had already formed a panel with significant seismological expertise on nuclear monitoring. NTPO requested modifications to the ongoing Air Force study to consider a broader range of disciplines and research needs for CTBT verification. In response to this request, six panelists were added, two each from the fields of hydroacoustics, infrasound, and radionuclide monitoring, and the scope of the study was enlarged (see Appendix A).

In all, the original and enlarged panel met five times over a period of 14 months between November 1995 and January 1997. In the course of its work, the panel received briefings from representatives of the following offices and agencies: Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Force Phillips Laboratory, Nuclear Treaty Program Office, Center for Monitoring Research, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (Department of Energy), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Air Resources Laboratory (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC). One of these briefings (AFTAC) was presented at the Secret level. In addition, some members of the panel attended classified on-site meetings at AFTAC to discuss national monitoring operations and research needs in the

fields of seismology, hydroacoustics, and radionuclides. The panel also received a tour and briefing on the operations at the Center for Monitoring Research. Throughout the study, the panel received valuable assistance from its liaison representatives: Stanley Dickinson (AFOSR), James Lewkowicz (Phillips Laboratory), Ralph Alewine (NTPO), Steve Bratt (NTPO), and David Russell^† (AFTAC).

In response to its charge, the panel's report describes the research needs and associated infrastructure needed to promote high-confidence monitoring of the CTBT by the United States. For this work, the panel relied on its expertise in the fields of seismology, hydroacoustics, infrasound, and radionuclides to analyze the role of each discipline alone and in conjunction with others in specific treaty monitoring capabilities. The report concludes that continued basic research will improve these capabilities, effectively lowering the threshold for CTBT compliance and eventually achieving U.S. monitoring goals. Developing synergies between monitoring technologies is important in this effort, but doing so will require a significant research program because data sets for most of the monitoring technologies have not been available in the past for small events in regions of interest. Throughout the report, the panel notes mechanisms to transition research results to monitoring operations. Such efforts will be essential for future improvements in monitoring capability.