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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty

Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations

Constance F. Citro, Michael L. Cohen, and Graham Kalton, Editors

Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

The project that is the subject of this report is supported by Contract RN96131001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Education. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.

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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

PANEL ON ESTIMATES OF POVERTY FOR SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS

GRAHAM KALTON (Chair),

Westat, Rockville, Maryland

DAVID M. BETSON,

Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame

NANCY E. DUNTON,

Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri

WAYNE A. FULLER,

Department of Statistics, Iowa State University

THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant,

Washington, D.C.

SYLVIA T. JOHNSON,

School of Education, Howard University

THOMAS A. LOUIS,

School of Public Health, University of Minnesota

SALLY C. MORTON,

RAND, Santa Monica, California

JEFFREY S. PASSEL,

Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

J.N.K. RAO,

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University

ALLEN L. SCHIRM,

Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C.

PAUL R. VOSS,

Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin

JAMES H. WYCKOFF,

Graduate School of Public Affairs, State University of New York, Albany

ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY,

Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director

MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Staff Officer

KIRSTEN K. WEST, Research Associate

MEYER ZITTER, Consultant

CANDICE S. EVANS, Senior Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1997-1998

NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair),

National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago

JULIE DAVANZO,

RAND, Santa Monica, California

WILLIAM F. EDDY,

Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University

JOHN F. GEWEKE,

Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

ERIC A. HANUSHEK,

W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy and Department of Economics, University of Rochester

RODERICK J.A. LITTLE,

School of Public Health, University of Michigan

THOMAS A. LOUIS,

School of Public Health, University of Minnesota

CHARLES F. MANSKI,

Department of Economics, Northwestern University

WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS,

Department of Economics, Yale University

JANET L. NORWOOD,

Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

EDWARD B. PERRIN,

Department of Health Services, University of Washington

PAUL R. ROSENBAUM,

Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

KEITH F. RUST,

Westat, Rockville, Maryland

FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO,

Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis

MIRON L. STRAF, Director

ANDREW WHITE, Deputy Director

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

Tables and Figures

TABLES

3-1

 

Single-Equation County Models: Dependent Variable and Predictor Variables

 

24

3-2

 

Bivariate County Models: Dependent Variable, Predictor Variables, and Form of the Predictor Variables for the CPS Equation for 1993

 

28

4-1

 

Estimates of Regression Coefficients for Four Candidate County Models for 1989 and 1993

 

38

4-2

 

Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number and Proportion of Poor Related Children Aged 5-17 in 1989

 

45

4-3

 

Comparison of Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County

 

47

4-4

 

Agreement Between Model Estimates for 1989 and 1990 Census County Estimates for Proportions of School-Age Children in Poverty in 1989

 

65

4-5

 

Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the State Model for 1989 and 1993

 

72

B-1

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Population Size in 1990

 

116

B-2

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Growth Rate, 1980-1990

 

117

B-3

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Black and Other Nonwhite Population, 1990

 

118

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

B-4

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Hispanic Population, 1990

 

119

B-5

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Poor Population, 1990

 

120

B-6

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Group Quarters Residents, 1990

 

121

B-7

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Census Division

 

122

B-8

 

Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Metropolitan Status, 1990

 

123

C-1

 

Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the CPS Equation for 13 County Models

 

128

C-2

 

Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the 1990 Census Equation for the 1993 Bivariate Models

 

130

D-1

 

Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County

 

136

D-2

 

Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category,

 

142

D-3

 

Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989

 

148

D-4

 

Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County

 

154

D-5

 

Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category

 

160

FIGURES

4-1

 

Change in poverty rate for school-age children, 1980-1990: Category differences from the 1990 census

 

56

4-2

 

Population growth, 1980-1990: Category differences from the 1990 census

 

57

4-3

 

Population size, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census

 

59

4-4

 

Percent Hispanic population, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census

 

60

4-5

 

Percent group quarters residents, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census

 

62

4-6

 

Census division: Category differences from the 1990 census

 

64

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

Acknowledgments

The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas wishes to thank the many people who contributed to the preparation of this, the panel's second interim report.

We wish to thank particularly the staff of the Census Bureau who worked with us in June-October 1997 to evaluate the Census Bureau's original model and alternative models for producing county estimates of poor school-age children in 1993: William Bell, John Coder, Robert Fay, Robin Fisher, Matt Kramer, Mark Otto, Paul Siegel, and George Train. We also thank the Census Bureau staff who facilitated the arrangements for the work: Cynthia Clark, Nancy Gordon, Charles Nelson, and Daniel Weinberg. Members of the Census Bureau's Population Division, including Bashir Ahmed, Michael Batutis, Sam Davis, John Long, Barbara Martin, Esther Miller, Douglas Sater, Larry Sink, Signe Wetrogan, and Janet Wysocki, provided informative briefings and evaluation materials on the county population estimates of school-age children.

Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics, who serves as the Department of Education project officer for the study, was helpful as always in facilitating this phase of its work. The panel also appreciates the continued help of other Department of Education staff, in particular, Sandy Brown, Kay Rigling, William Sonnenberg, and Stephanie Stullich, in educating us about the Title I allocation process.

I thank my panel colleagues for their continued commitment to the work of the panel and to its second interim report, which was prepared, like the first, under a very demanding time schedule. We were assisted by a very able staff. Constance Citro, who became the panel's study director in spring 1997, had

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

overall responsibility for the project. Without her excellent work in preparing and revising drafts of the report, we would not have been able to complete this report on time. Michael Cohen made important contributions to the evaluation of alternative models and to many sections of the report. Meyer Zitter, with the help of Kirsten West, ably assisted the panel's working group on the county population estimates and provided other materials for the panel. Candice Evans provided administrative support for our study and capably and cheerfully carried the brunt of the work to produce the report. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, contributed substantially to the readability of the report through her fine technical editing. To all we are grateful.

Graham Kalton, Chair

Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×

Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1998. Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6122.
×
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