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51 2 . 2 THE PROBLEM m e primary goal of this chapter is to present the results of exploratory macro analyses in which the estimated intercepts and micro parameters for the socioeconomic variables in the onset (AFB), early fertility (EF), and later fertility (LF) structural equations are treated as functions of macro variables. This focus reflects two basic decisions: to select certain structural equations for examination; and, within these equations, to examine macro variability in the intercepts and in the effects of the socioeconomic variables. m e reason we restrict our attention to a subset of the entire model is that our empirical research has just begun. The results reported in this chapter are thus in the nature of a progress report. We concentrate on the AFB, EF, and LF equations because the three endogenous variables in these equations operationalize the decomposition of fertility which is at the heart of the theory presented in Chapter 1. Within these equations, we focus on the effects of the socioeconomic variables because the theory is concerned with the socioeconomic deter- minants of fertility. Hypotheses presented in Chapter 1 about variability in the effects of these variables are novel, and their empirical testing is a priority research concern. Analysis of the remaining variables, although essential to a complete evaluation of the model, must await another occasion. Finally, our focus on the AFB, EF, and LF structural equations provides insight into the main or additive effects of the macro variables in the determination of AFB, EF, and LF, as discussed in further detail below. 2 . 3 MACRO HYPOTHESE S Chapter 1 examined possible changes in the directions of association between socioeconomic and fertility variables as a function of location on the traditional/transitional continuum. In that discussion of the implications of the theory for commonly used endogenous variables such as children ever born (CEB) , we treated sign changes from traditional to transitional settings as indicators of changes in magnitude as well as in sign. Thus, the coefficient of a particular socioeconomic variable which is positive in an extreme traditional setting but negative in an extreme transitional setting may be negative and smaller in absolute value, or even zero, in a less transitional setting. In developing the macro hypotheses to be operat~onal~zed and tested, we must first be more precise about the sources of macro variability in the micro parameters. Next, we develop a macro specification, and translate our notions of coefficient variability into hypotheses about the effects of macro variables on micro parameters. Subsequently, we operationalize the micro and macro formulations. The traditional/transitional continuum is based on the notion that at the traditional extreme there is no explicit idea or practice of fertility control, while in transitional settings, some explicit idea and practice exist. In general, to operatzonalize this continuum would seem to involve measuring knowledge, attitudes, and practices concerning fertility control at both the micro and macro levels. For a given
