Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
4 Examples of Electrification and Productivity Gains .................................. ..... _ .. .... . ...... ..... .. ... .......................... l . ~ ..................................... ........ :: 1 ~N . . ............ ~ ... ............ ..................... _. Am. ~. . ~Price of ~ Price of . Electricity Substitute Fuels Residential .. , . ~:, ,: , , ::., :- . ~ ...................................................................... El"tr~f~ca':~on ~ _ Growth Em. Commercial _ I nd ustria I SU PP LY - I ncome ~1~ :lty: T L: devices | 1 :~- Gross National _ :1 Electricity Product ~ Consumption DEMAND In the preceding chapter the past relationships between electricity and productivity growth were examined econometrically to understand better the ways technical change and electr ic ity use at feet our economy. In this chapter we give some examples of gains in the efficiency of production through particular technical change, that is, through electr i f ication. The d iscussion bears on the shaded portions of the above reproduction of Figure 1-1. Although considering individual examples about specif ic users and processes may be illuminating, their aggregate effect is hard to predict. Even so, some general 88
89 observations about past industrial technological advances, and the role of electricity in them, suggest that electricity is an important energy form in making technological progress. ; The examples illustrate the general point that advanced electro- technolog ies applied to a particular process of ten save electricity and other inputs per unit of output. Less quantif table, but equally important, is the fact that resulting lower costs and higher quality can expand the market, thus increasing total electricity input. Furthermore, in the next 10 to 20 years current processes will incorporate new variations in technique and new products, the competitiveness of which may depend on the new production techniques. The flexibility of electricity will support such innovative processes. Finally, the examples will call to mind other applications, such as the reduction of aluminum ore, that are essentially impractical by nonelectrical means. The material in this chapter bears on two of the principal conclusions of the study: Technical change has made possible many new opportunities for exploiting the special qualities of electricity. In the past these changes were often associated with increased intensity of electricity use, but in the future their net effect on that intensity will depend on the balance between their increased penetration and the increased efficiency of these applications. O There is further potential for increasing the efficiency of electricity use, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors. ELECTRICITY AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS The attractiveness of electricity as an energy form, as it is assoc iated with advances in production technology and with information and control technology that may not be directly involved in production, arises from two of its significant characteristics. The most important is that electrical energy is ~ highly ordered form of energy: in the language of physics, its entropy is low. Thus, electricity is applicable quite efficiently to a wide variety of conversion processes. The other attractive characteristic of electricity is that its final form is relatively "clean." In particular, throughout the world electrical energy is distributed at one of two common frequencies and at a few easily changed voltages. Electrical equipment can therefore be reliably and cheaply engineered with the confidence that expensive adaptations will not be necessary to accommodate supply pecularities or waste products at the point of use. The most obvious use of electricity in many industries is in heating. The advantages of electrical over fossil fuel heating extend beyond environmental concerns. The main benefit is the flexibility
so with which el ectrical energy can be delivered, controlled, and tailored to optimal locations in space, to temperatures or energy levels for desired processing chemistry, and to the limitations of the materials used in that processing. Generally, such applications represent a substitution of electrical energy for other energy forms, sometimes with an increase in the efficiency of total energy use. Any generalization about the implications of advanced technologies for increased electricity use is somewhat uncertain. This uncertainty arises because many of the newer processes carried out by advanced technologies require less electrical energy than the processes they displace. Concentrating heat at the deposition site--using induction heating, microwave heating, or electron beam welding, for example--is one general case of using the special properties of electricity to drive novel process technologies. In the sense of electrical energy required per unit of output, many of these technologies are less electricity-intensive than, for example, resistance heating or arc welding. In short, there are clear examples of enhancing productive efficiency while using less electrical energy. Still, the enhanced efficiency may improve competitiveness and market penetration so that total consumption increases. Again, although the efficiency of individual electricity-using technologies can be analyzed, predicting the mix of technologies to be expected in the future will at best be incomplete and at worst, wrong. While one can anticipate the decline of some currently employed technical processes, forecasting their future replacements is quite uncertain. Even so, it is instructive to consider some of the diverse forms of electrification that may accompany technical change. KINDS OF TECHNICAL CHANGE TAT ALTER ELECTRICITY USE Technical changes that alter electricity use may be classif fed by how they displace energy to achieve economic gain. The categories selected here represent typical applicat ions of electric ity in cur rent use. It is hard to make an exhaustive survey of such processes. Thus, we focus on a few broad, qualitatively different classes: o Technical changes in which processes using electricity as the primary energy form displace traditional processes that depend on fossil fuel heat, mechanical energy distribution systems, or human labor. Generally such processes are the earliest advantageous industrial applications of electricity, and the resulting rise in productivity is generally accompanied by a rise in the use of electrical energy. Choice of these processes may be encouraged by increasingly attractive prices of electricity relative to those of oil and gas. o Technical changes in which advanced electrotechnolog ies d isplace older electrotechnologies and provide more eff icient matching of energy availability to need, resulting in a decrease in energy consumption per
91 unit of output and often a rise in productivity with respect to other inputs as well. These new technologies may have many of the following attributes: high energy efficiencies; less product waste; better precision and control in the attainment of technical objectives; reduction of the time necessary to attain process objectives; less severe environmental impacts; reduced labor and maintenance requirements; better reliability and quality assurance; and overall economic advantages. 0 Technical changes in which additional capital investment in equipment and structures displaces some operating energy requirements. Many conservation techniques represent this kind of substitution, motivated by changing prices and the availability of new conservation technolog ies and of information about such applications. o Technical changes in which the enhanced productivity and quality of output that depend on electricity are qualitatively clear, but are not yet easily classified by the direction of energy displacement. Many such applications, including computers, la sers, pla smas, and electrophoresis, are impractical or unachievable by nonelectr ical means. Of course, these general classes describe only roughly any given application. In particular, numerous modern applications for saving energy in heating and cooling buildings depend not only on the availability of the advanced technology, but also on the commitment of a larger initial investment than if the technology were not adopted. In such cases, productivity growth depends both on technical change and on capital substitution. All these categories of technical change tend toward higher productivity in the general economy through increases in productive efficiency in individual f irms. The second and third classes of change described above can be expected to show decreased electricity use per unit of output. The four categor ies above by no means embrace the wide range of electrical applications, nor are they necessarily the most important for systematic evaluation. They do, however, provide insights into the ways technical changes in using electricity may increase productivity and change energy consumption. An example of each category is g iven below. EXAMPLES OF ELECTRICITY-DEPENDENT TECHNICAL CHANGE Arc Furnace Steelmaking Arc furnace steelmaking is an example of the substitution of electrical energy for more traditional energy forms, where extensive changes also occur in other aspects of production. These changes encompass not only the energy form used, but also the selection of raw feed materials, the ways specific production can be tailored to the needs of individual users, and, perhaps most importantly, the decentralization of plant locations.
92 The production of molten steel f rom scrap in an electric arc furnace is the primary competitor to the conventional blast furnace-basic oxygen f urnace (BF-BOF) steelmaking process (Burwel~ and Devine, 1984~. Figure 4-1 illustrates these two processes. In conventional steelmaking, iron ore must be pelletized and introduced into a blast furnace with limestone and coke to produce molten iron. The iron is further processed in a basic oxygen furnace with pure oxygen and other chemical additives to produce steel. Open hearth furnaces, traditionally used to produce steel until the 1950s, have by now been almost completely displaced by the BOF in the United States. In the electric furnace, steel scrap is melted directly with a high-intensity arc. The desired steel composition is controlled primarily by ad justing the composition of the scrap charge, though some ret ining also takes place in the furnace. Although virtually all of this steel produced in the United States today is made from scrap, electric furnaces can also melt direct-reduced iron generated from ore. This process may become significant over the next decade as scrap supplies are depleted. Scrap can be used only in limited quantities as an added constituent in BF-BOF steelmak~ng; combustion heat sources are not intense enough to permit melting scrap economically. As pointed out earlier, however, extremely high temperatures are attainable with electric arc heating; and it is this characteristic that has made electric furnace steelmaking relatively economical. Table 4-1 compares typical production costs for the two processes. Although scrap is more expensive than the feedstocks for the BF-BOF process, other costs, notably of energy and capital, are signif icantly lower for the electric arc furnace. Table 4-2 compares the primary energy requirements for the two steelmaking processes. The electric furnace process requires about one-third the primary energy ~ fuel to the power plant) as the BF-BOF process. Capital costs of BF mills are typically about $4 50 per annual ton of capacity, compared with about $100 per annual ton of capacity for an electric furnace mill. Furthermore, integrated mills must be sized to take advantage of optimal economy of scale because of the requirements for large ore-handling, coke-making, and pollution abatement f acilities. In the United States, the average plant capacity of BF mills is somewhat over 3 million tons per year and that of electric furnace mills is under 0.5 million tons per year. The economic viability of small electric "mini~nills" close to particular markets has introduced decentralization to the steel industry. Integrated mills are located in only 15 states, with 75 percent of their capacity concentrated in the eastern Ohio-western Pennsylvania and the Chicago areas e Electric mills are located in 32 states, with no more than about 25 percent of their capacity concentrated in any one narrow geographical region. The relative profitability of arc furnace steelmaking is now accepted as axiomatic in the industry. The fact has been demonstrated especially during times of economic decline. In such times electric mills have generally fared much better than BF-BOF mills, partly
93 3 b 4 lion Ore Pellets AL 1~ . ~ Si nter ffl~ _t'~ .~ Limestone ~ ~ Crushed Coal At& Blast ~ 1d ,11 . Low Slag LO ..~., Coke Ovens c' ~ Lime and Flux 0 1 i r 1 ~'. otter Steet _ By_ I_ '.'otte~ Steed _xu Open Hearth Furnace Basic Oxygen Furnace ~ _ ~ OF Reduction ~ iron Ore my ~~ i\7 ~Scrap [_~ _ r __ ~Eiec~rlc Furnace '` o't~' Steel, FIGURE 4-1 Comparison of steelmaking processes: (a) integrated blast furnace, (b) electric furnace. SOURCE: Schmidt ( 1984) .
94 TABLE 4-1 Comparative Costs for Producing Molten Steel (1982 Dollars per Ton) Blast Furnace-Basic Scrap-Electric Cost Element Oxygen Furnace Furnace Raw mater ial Energy (coke @ $150/ton, electricity @ $0. 045/kWh) Interest on capital Labor 92.40 63.80 33.00 8.80 Maintenance and overhead 22.00 117.25 21.00 12.25 7.00 17.50 Total 220.00 175. 00 SOURCE: Adapted from Schmidt (1984~. TABLE 4-2 Pr imary Energy Requirements for Molten Steel Process Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace Coke ovens and blast furnace Basic oxygen furnace steelmaking Scrap-electric furnace Pr imary Energy (106 Btu/net ton) 21.1 19.5 1.6 7.4 SOURCE: Adapted f ram Schmidt (1984) .
95 because the price of scrap is likely to be low and partly because of the inherent operational flexibility of electric furnaces. The flexibility in output batch size, feedstock, and product specifications yields better deliverability, and therefore better coupling to market needs,-resulting in better market penetration. The ability of minimills to produce customized output on relatively short schedules provides a market advantage in many applications that overcomes lower unit costs of offshore steel. Integrating customized production with computer-assisted design and computer-assisted manufacturing in the future should further increase the competitiveness of such producers relative to that of the producers of bulk steel. These observations have led to projecting significant growth in electric steelmaking during the rest of the century, even though only modest growth in overall steelmaking capacity is anticipated. In 1978, U. S. electric furnaces produced 33 million tons of steel, about one-fourth the total . The American Iron and Steel Institute has predicted that the U.S. figure could exceed 50 million tons in 1988, about one-third the total. A U.S. capacity of about 70 million tons has been projected for the year 2000. These figures should be interpreted cautiously: they are based on hypothetical scenarios of overall demand and use of production capacity. The figures are noted here simply to indicate the clear relative economy of the electric furnace process. Metals Processing by Lasers and Electron Beams Processing metals with lasers and electron beams exemplifies the displacement of older electrotechnologies by more advanced ones. Some of these new techniques constitute extraordinary advances in performing basic cutting and welding operations in metals. Before, electrification in the form of power drives for saws and electric arc welding was the standard technology. Introducing the advanced technologies significantly enhances productivity and reduces electrical energy use per unit of product. Laser and electron beam processing both have broad applications, including cutting, welding, drilling, and heat treating. They also affect industries ranging from aircraft and automobi les to home appliances and electronics. Many kinds of metal fabrication are labor-intensive, so processing speed and number of operations are critical to overall production economy. Although it has been shown, in fact, that laser and electron beam processes of ten conserve energy compared with conventional metal cutting and welding processes, this discussion focuses primarily on labor-related parameters. Laser Processing The high energy deposition rates of lasers and their ability to control the energy source precisely in location, direction, time, and intensity together give rise to the productivity advantages illustrated here.
96 For example, circular saw blade blanks can be laser cut to customized specif ications, providing shorter delivery times and better quality than convent tonal stamping processes . Table 4-3 compares typical laser cutting speeds with those of conventional mechanical saws for steel and titanium plates of varying thicknesses. Titanium presents a particularly difficult sawing operas ion because of its high hardness . Hardness i s essent tally irrelevant- in laser cutting, since the laser beam simply vaporizes the metal. As a result, cutting speeds with the laser are roughly 25 times faster than with sawing . For working steel, which is not as hard as titanium, a speed advantage of 5 to 10 times is still achievable. Table 4-4 shows the resulting labor savings for a typical application--cutting complex titanium shapes in manufacturing high- performance aircraft. These figures include setup and postprocessing time as well as actual cutting time. Employee-hour savings of 60 to 6 5 percent are typical with the laser process. Overall cutting costs for this application are shown in Table 4-5. Cost savings for the laser process range from about $1 to $3 per foot, depending on material thickness. The capital cost of the laser system, however, is significantly higher. This cost premium would typically be recovered in producing about 2, 000 parts of 1/2-in. thickness and of 20-ft perimeter (structural elements, for example) or about 5, 000 or 6, 000 parts of 1/8-in. thickness when the perimeter is similar (for example, fuselage skin panels). Electron Beam Process ing The primary application of electron beams today is in welding thick steel and aluminum sections, for example, in the automotive and shipbuilding industries. Electron beams with velocities approaching the speed of light have tremendous penetrating power and can be magnetically focused to an area about 1 mm2. Plates rang ing f rom 1/2 to 6 in. in thickness can be welded in a single pass with an electron beam while conventional arc or oxyacetylene welding techniques require 2 to 20 passes. The intensity and focusability of electron beam welders provide indirect as well as direct processing speed advantages. Figure 4-2a illustrates that the heat-affected zone in conventional multipass weld varies from almost zero at the bottom of the weld to approximately the plate thickness at the top. By comparison, the electron beam weld is almost uniform in width throughout the plate and results in a relatively small heat-affected zone (typically the thickness of a pencil). This feature results in high weld integrity and low transverse shrinkage; uneven shrinkage in conventional welding distorts the plate as shown in Figure 4-2b, requiring postprocessing heat treatments to correct that distortion. Residual stress remains as a failure-promoting attribute even after stress relief of conventional welds.
97 TABLE 4-3 The Comparative Cutting Speeds of Lasers and Saws Average Cutting Speed (in./min) for Different Thicknesses Material Process 1/50 in. 1/16 in. 1/8 in. Titanium Saw 8.5 5.8 4.4 Laser 200 160 120 Steel Saw 8.5 5.8 4.-4 Laser 80 40 20 SOURCE: Schmidt (1984) . TABLE 4-4 Comparative Labor Costs for Cutting Titanium Aircraft Components (Including Setup and Postprocessing Time), with Band Sawing and Laser Cutting Techniques Band Sawing Laser Cutting Savings Component Type (man-min/ft) (man-min/ft) (percent) Large contoured skin panels 10.4 3.65 65 Ribs and longerons 6.0 2.32 61 Small skin panels 6.25 2.38 62 SOURCE: Adapted from Schmidt (1984) .
Cutting Process Capital- Investment ~ dollar s ~ 98 TABLE 4-5 Titanium Cutting Cost Comparisons ~ in 1982 Dollars) Total Cost (dollars/ft)- Mater ial Thickness 1/8 in. 1/4 in. 1/2 in . Saw Laser 2,000 96, 000 1.52 2.18 4.15 0.71 1.19 1.28 aIncludes operating and secondary f inishing costs SOURCE: Adapted f rom Schmidt ( 19 8 4 ) . .
99 a CONVENTIONAL WE LDI NG Molten mesai ~ .. '~/~/~/~ b E LECTRON B EAM WE LDI NG High-speed stream _ I ~ Molten metal c,! electrons ~ ,: ~/~///,~/~//~ Fusion zone (heat-affected area) 1 WELDS SUPERIMPOSED Conventional weld zone .. Electron beam weld zone Angular distortion caused by uneven shrinkage at top and bottom surfaces Parallel sides of Reid zone produce uniform linear shrink;aae, causing no angular distortion FIGURE 4-2 (a) Comparison of hea~-affected zones for conventional and electron beam welding, (b) distortion of parts from shrinkage. The lower residual stresses in the parallel weld minimize regions susceptible to cracking and failure. Source: Schmidt ( 19 ~ 4 ~ .
100 Table 4-6 shows the overall speed and cost advantages of electron beam welding over conventional inert-gas arc welding. Although energy use is not the primary factor in welding production costs, the electron beam process is extremely energy-efficient, typically requiring less than one-tenth the energy of arc welding. More significantly, complete welding time, including setup and postprocessing, is typically reduced by the electron beam processing by about five times. The resulting cost differentials per inch of weld range from 400 to 450 percent. As in using lasers, however, the initial investment in electron beam equipment is high; thus the process is best suited to high-production applications, such as welding automobile bodies and chassis components. Investments in Energy Efficiency of Buildings Capital investment in a wide variety of passive or active energy conservation systems can reduce the energy requirements necessary for acceptable environments in commercial buildings and residences. Many of these measures are equally relevant to electric and nonelectric means of space conditioning. However, to the extent that such investments affect electricity use for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and lighting, they exemplify the third category of technical change described above. The following approaches are among those already well known and practiced: o Using insulation, double glazing, and tinted and reflected glazings o Using heat pumps and other more efficient heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning equipment o Using advanced lighting technologies o Using energy storage systems to reduce peak demand o Improving controls for more efficient energy management o Improving building design. Some of these features can be retrofitted, but with less effect on energy use. Applying these techniques in new construction, however, can provide dramatic annual reductions in total energy requirements. The potential of implementing such measures is captured in Figure 4-3, which presents past trends and future possibilities in the energy intensities of office buildings. Energy use in typical new commercial buildings is estimated to have risen from about 300 thousand British thermal units per square foot per year (kBtu/ft~-year) in 1952 to about 480 kBtu/ft2-year in 1975. The U.S. office building stock in 1960 is estimated to have used about 350 kBtu/ft2-year. Evolving standards suggest that lower office building resource energy intensities are attainable in new construction, for example, about 10 kBtu/ft2-year in the early 1980s. A still lower value of about 70 kBtu/ft2-year for new construction is seen for 1990, presuming such operations are economical. Average of f ice building resource energy intensity for the existing stock will Gradually fall as ~ result of
101 TABLE 4-6 Comparison of Electron Beam (EB) and Metal Inert Gas (MIG) Welding Maraging Steel ( 1-in. Thickness) Titanium ~ l-in. Thickness) Feature EB MIG EBMIG Number of passes 1 10 110 Welding speed 40 10 IS20 ~ in. /min/pass) Total welding time 0.3 12 0.86 (min/ft) Total setup, weld, 49 280 55243 and clean time, typical job (min) Re let ive C05t (operating and labor) 1.0 4.1 1.0 4.5 SOURCE: Schmidt (1983~.
102 500 400 300 - En: LL a LL LL ~200 o u' LL 100 o U.S. office building: / `\ Trend of various I U.S. office building stock standards: ASHRAE 9~75 / vo luntary standard 0\' _ \, ASHRAE 90-75R Swedish office building stock ~ / / ~'~ ~BEPS Swedish office buildings\\~4 farsta ~ ~ \ ~ Folksam an Embargo \ .Swedish SBN-75 1 1 1 1 ' ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1952 1960 1 970 1980 1990 YEAR B U I LT FIGURE 4-3 ()f' ice building resource energy intensity, 40-year trends. NOTE: Trends in annual energy use per unit floor area per year of new U. S. . and Swedish off ice buildings. Seven recent energy-ef f icient office buildings are represented by "*". ASHBAE, American Society for Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers; BEPS, Building Energy Performance Standards; LCC, life cycle cost. Electricity is counted in resource energy units at 11, 500 Btu per Koch. SOURCE: Adapted f rom Kelly and Gawell (1981) .
103 improved standards for new construction, but the average will lag the standard because of the slow pace of stock turnover and retrofit. Efficient lighting and energy storage are of particular interest for energy conservation in buildings. Lighting in commercial buildings contributes a significant f raction of the air-conditioning load and also contributes to a reduction in heating load during cold weather. Potent ial improvements are atta inable in at least two ways . Improved more daylighting will cut lighting heat loads 1.5 watts per square foot (W/ft2) to the ., _ _ With new technologies for highly eff icient lighting, the typical f luorescent lamp ~ 80 lumens/W) may lead to to more advanced types of lighting: designs that allow for f rom a typical value of lower value cuff 1 W/ft2, o Isotopically enhanced lamps (110 lumens/W) by 1985 o Magnetically loaded lamps ~ 135 lumens/W), by 1990 0 Two-photon phosphor lamps (200 lumens/W), by 1995. The technology and applications of energy storage for cooling have gained significant popularity. Their main contribution is through reducing peak loads. In addition, since cooling storage takes place at night at relatively lower ambient temperatures, energy can be saved because of the resulting higher efficiencies of the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning system. Typical storage media include chilled water and ice. Phase-change polyalcohols are being researched and may be used. All these methods require separate storage facilities, which pose a special challenge in retrofitting buildings. In new buildings, the thermodeck hollow-core floor slab integrates heating and cooling storage into the structure of the building. This design requires no visible structure for storage. Many such applications are only marginally productive, and their effectiveness must be determined by analysis of the specific situation. However, penetration of storage-augmented systems is increasing. Automation Automation is an example of technical change involving electricity where the promise of enhanced productivity is already clear but the impact on ultimate energy use is not. Such applications of electricity have a direct bearing on efficiently using time, space, capital, labor, energy, and materials, particularly in the commerc ial and industr ial sectors. However, corresponding biases of productivity growth, as discussed in Chapter 3, are not yet established. We have not yet measured whether automation is capital using, electricity using, labor saving, materials saving, or anything else. Computer-aided technical analyses, communications systems, miniaturization of office equipment, and electronic storage of data are some applications now receiving wide attention. Nevertheless, the full range of applications cannot be foreseen at this time. In addition to
104 end-use applications, growth in the use of automation equipment will positively affect the economy by encouraging the growth and development of new industries. In manufacturing, terminal equipment is used for data entry and data access. Mainframe computers manage data bases and electronic messages and perform scientific and engineering calculations. The more effective handling of information is essential to optimizing overall productivity of a firm or an economic sector. Automated information systems can effectively match and synchronize the flow of materials, equipment, designs, labor market, and delivery data, for example. In retail trade, the primary application is point-of-sale terminals tied to minicomputers. This use not only simplifies individual transactions but also introduces real-time inventory control, thereby reducing invested capital. In education, electronic tools are also becoming widespread. Elementary and secondary schools increasingly are making microcomputers available to students, together with courses in their use. Colleges and universities are integrating computers into their curricula. Although this discussion focuses on automation in the commercial and industrial sectors, there will probably be significant use of microcomputers and videotext equipment in individual residences also. Few data are available to estimate the potential relationship between office automation and electricity use. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has attempted to quantify this relationship (Roach, 1985~. Table 4-7 lists various types of electronic equipment and their typical power requirements. These values have been used in the preliminary estimate of electricity use discussed below. Roach assumed that 3.5 million terminals and 13,000 mainframe computers would be installed in off ices in the manufactur ing sector. Point-of-sale terminals would be installed at all stores with f ive or more employees, store growth would be 34 percent by the early l990s, and 43 percent of the terminals would replace electronic cash registers in the retail sector. Each college student and one in five elementary and high school students would have microcomputers. All homes with incomes of greater than $25,000 would install a microcomputer. The capacity required, based on these assumptions, is about 30,000 MW. The electric energy requirement, similarly, is about 100, 000, 000 h per year. Such calculations are of course preliminary. In addition, how much other energy-using technology may be displaced is not well understood. EPRI is continuing the study of electricity use and will extend it to include the many nonmanufacturing offices, health care facilities, and financial institutions. However, the impact of using such equipment on productivity and eff iciency is not really measured by the electricity consumption of office machines and computers. Rather, the proper measure is the improved handling of information to make the most efficient and coordinated use of production facilities, labor, and materials. To take a single example, the inventory control for replacement parts for computers is itself a large, though largely invisible, industry. Without this k, nd of system, the worldwide penetration of U.S.-made
105 TABLE 4-7 Estimated Power Requirements for Electronic Office Equipment Technology Brand Features power Requirement (watts) Microcomputer IBM PC 512-kilobyte memory, two disk340 drives, monochrome screen, dot-matrix printer Microcomputer IBM PC/XT 512-kilobyte memory, 10-mega- 614 byte hard disk drive, color screen, dot-matrix printer Microcomputer Apple 128-kilobyte memory, one disk 60 Macintosh drive, screen Microcomputer AT&T System unit only 230 Minicomputer IBM System Up to 8 million characters of 8,500 38/Model memory, IBM 3370 for storage, 8 IBM 3262 for printing, tape drive, and five terminals Minicomputer DEC VAX DEC RA81 for storage, LP06 7,310 11/750 for printing, and five LA120 terminals Minicomputer DEC VAX 11/780 Mainframe IBM 3084 Up to 4 megawords of memory,9,110 DEC RA81 for storage, LP06 for printing, and five LA120 terminals Up to 96 million characters22,800 of memory, IBM 4248 printer,31,300 IBM 3380 for disk storage Computer IBM 3279 With mainframe 300 terminal Computer IBM With system 38 200 terminal POS terminal! IBM 365 320 POS terminal NCR 280 400 POS terminal IBM 3684 360 Large video RCA PJR 50-in. screen 235 screen Video cassette RCA 300 recorder Microfiche Minolta 250 reader and RP401e printer Phone recorder Panasonic 20 TYPOS: Point-of-sale. SOURCE: Roach (1985).
106 computers would be impractical, since the parts availability and replacement channels would become much more costly and much less responsive to need. A ful 1 discussion of automation in the industrial sector is not necessary for the purposes of this section. However, the technology should at least be cited as a primary tool for higher process efficiency, higher quality, and the conduct of operations not practical by manual means. Essentially all advances in automation depend on electrical sensors, actuators, and computerized control systems. There are already products, such as automobile bodies, for which the market share of nonautomated production is rapidy declining. For these products, automation is perceived as the most practical route to consistently high quality and thus competitiveness. OTHER INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES Many other examples of electricity-dependent change, particularly in the industrial sector, are pertinent. They range from plasma processes for metals reduction, melting, and chemical processing through electroytic processes for separating and refining metals and chemicals to infrared and ultraviolet radiation curing. More complete lists of industrial opportunities are given in Table 4-8 and Table D-1 of Appendix D. Examples drawn from commercial, residential, and transportation sectors are given in Tables D-2, D-3, and D-4, respectively, of Appendix D. THE S IGNIF ICANCE OF ELECTRIF ICAT ION As noted at the beginning of this chapter, its purpose has been to describe some of the technologies that will shape the future relationship between electrification and gains in production efficiency. More specifically, various new electrotechnologies promise to increase national productivity through new applications of electricity. Chapter 3 showed that the relationship of electricity to sectoral production is dual: (1) for many industries technical change is electricity using in the sense that it increases the share, relative to those of other inputs to production, that a given change in electricity input value contributes to change in output-value and (2) for the same industries a drop in the price of electricity, in association with technical change, increases their productivity growth. The examples here allow us to conclude that electricity has unique properties that make it an attractive form of energy, namely: ~ Constituting a highly organized form of energy, virtually completely convertible into other forms, such as motion, heat, light, or chemical potential
107 TABLE 4-8 Industrial Electrotechnologies and Their Applications Technology Major Applications Arc furnace steelmaking Plasma-based metals reduction Plasma-arc production of chem icals Bigh-temperature electrolytic reduction Induction melting Plasma melting, cutting, and spraying Induction heating Electroslag remelting and casting Laser materials processing Electron beam heating Other high-temperature technologies (resistance melting, resistance heating, vacuum melting, homopolar pulsed heating, etc. ) Beat pumps and mechanical vapor recompression Electrolytic separation and electrochemical synthesis Dielectric heating with mic rowaves and high- f requency red fat ion Ultraviolet and electron beam radiation curing Othe r med ium- and low temperature technologies Wide range of steelmaking processes Extractive metallurgy and ferrous metals processing Production of acetylene and ethylene, use of coal to produce teas lo chemicals, etc. Improving productivity in producing aluminum and magnesium Improving productivity in many varied applications in metals production Large-scale melting of basic metals Forg ing industry and potent ial large-scale applications Production of high-alloy ingots of simple geometry and potentially those of complex geometry Metal cutting, drilling, welding, and heat treating Welding and heat treating in automotive, shipbuilding, and related industries Materials production and fabrication Bigh-temperature heat recovery (e.g., in pulp and paper industries), distillation, and drying Production of inorganic chemicals, water treatment, trace metal removal, etc. Food processing and drying applications Improving productivity in the coatings industries Surface coatings, various industrial operations, uranium. separation, etc. SOURCE: Adapted from Schmidt (1984).
108 fuels o Permitting previously unattainable precision, control, and speed o Providing temperatures greater than those available using fossil 0 Flexibly operating process equipment on power generated f ram many fuels o Leading to few, if any, waste products and environmental hazards at its point of use, compared with fossil fuels 0 Requ ir ing no inventory . These properties of electricity underscore its importance as an energy source in high-technology, information-based activities. Electrification is also an industrial process that can change not only the form of energy used but also the amount and kind of labor, capital, and materials inputs; product quality; and the location of manufacture. These changes may result in increased efficiency of production, in the form of equivalent output at lower input cost, and hence, lower prices. The foregoing examples illustrate the strong relationship between technological improvements, the use of electricity, and increases in the eff iciency of production. The question remains whether this relationship will continue, and what its net effect will be on electricity consumption. This is the subject of Chapter 5.
109 REFERENCES Burwell, C. C., and W. D. Devine, Jr. 1984. Industrial Electrification: Early Beginnings and Current Trends. Technical Report. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Kelly, H., and K. Gawell. 1981. A New Prosperity: Building a Sustainable Energy Future. Andover, Mass. : Brick House Publishing Roach, C. 1985. Office Productivity Tools for the Information Economy: Possible Effects on Electricity Consumption. Unpublished f irst draft presented to Electric Power Research Institute. April. Schmidt, P. S. 1983. The Form Value of Electricity: Some Observations and Cases. Paper presented at the Workshop on Electricity Use, Productive Efficiency, and Economic Growth, the Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C. December 8-9. Schmidt, P. S. 1984. Electricity and Industrial Productivity--A Technical and Economic Perspective. Electric Power Research Institute Report EM-3460. Elmsford, N.Y.: Pergamon Press. 1 ~
