MOUNT RAINIER
Active Cascade Volcano
Research Strategies for Mitigating Risk from a High, Snow-Clad Volcano in a Populous Region
U.S. Geodynamics Committee
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1994
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competence and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Support for this study was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 94-66300
International Standard Book Number 0-309-05083-9
Copies of this report are available from:
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2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area)
Cover photograph of Mount Rainier courtesy of Richard S. Fiske, Smithsonian Institution. Frontispiece lithograph of Mount Rainier is from the expedition of Captain George Vancouver to northwestern America in 1790-1795. The lithograph appeared in the three-volume work A voyage of Discovery to the North Pacific Ocean and Round the World, which was published in 1798 by G. G. and J. Robinson, Paternoster-Row, and J. Edwards, Pall-Mall. Courtesy of the Special Collections Division, University of Washington Libraries (negative number 8184).
Copyright © 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
U.S. GEODYNAMICS COMMITTEE
ROBIN BRETT,
U.S. Geological Survey,
Chair
DON L. ANDERSON,
California Institute of Technology
KEVIN T. BIDDLE,
Exxon Exploration Company
MARK P. CLOOS,
University of Texas at Austin
WILLIAM DICKINSON,
University of Arizona
RICHARD S. FISKE,
Smithsonian Institution
RAYMOND JEANLOZ,
University of California, Berkeley
KENNETH LARNER,
Colorado School of Mines
ELIZABETH MILLER,
Stanford University
LYNN M. WALTER,
University of Michigan
ROBERT S. YEATS,
Oregon State University
Former Members Whose Terms Expired During the Reporting Period
T. MARK HARRISON,
University of California, Los Angeles
WILLIAM J. HINZE,
Purdue University
JOHN C. MUTTER,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
ROBERT A. PHINNEY,
Princeton University
SIGMUND SNELSON,
Shell Oil Company
Workshop Organizers/Working Group Report Editors
THOMAS J. CASADEVALL,
U.S. Geological Survey
STEPHEN D. MALONE,
University of Washington
DONALD A. SWANSON,
U.S. Geological Survey
National Research Council Staff
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Program Officer
BRUCE B. HANSHAW, Program Officer
SHELLEY A. MYERS, Project Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
J. FREEMAN GILBERT,
University of California, San Diego,
Chair
GAIL M. ASHLEY,
Rutgers University
THURE CERLING,
University of Utah
MARK P. CLOOS,
University of Texas at Austin
NEVILLE G. W. COOK,
University of California, Berkeley
JOEL DARMSTADTER,
Resources for the Future
DONALD J. DEPAOLO,
University of California, Berkeley
MARCO T. EINAUDI,
Stanford University
NORMAN H. FOSTER,
Independent Petroleum Geologist, Denver
CHARLES G. GROAT,
Louisiana State University
DONALD C. HANEY,
University of Kentucky
ANDREW H. KNOLL,
Harvard University
PHILIP E. LAMOREAUX,
P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates, Inc.
SUSAN LANDON,
Thomasson Partner Associates, Denver
MARCIA K. McNUTT,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
J. BERNARD MINSTER,
University of California, San Diego
JILL D. PASTERIS,
Washington University
EDWARD C. ROY, JR.,
Trinity University
National Research Council Staff
JONATHAN G. PRICE, Staff Director
THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Associate Staff Director
WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Program Officer
BRUCE B. HANSHAW, Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Program Officer
LALLY A. ANDERSON, Staff Assistant
CHARLENE E. ANDERSON, Administrative Assistant
JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
SHELLEY A. MYERS, Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
M. GORDON WOLMAN,
The Johns Hopkins University,
Chair
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America
PETER S. EAGLESON,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
W. BARCLAY KAMB,
California Institute of Technology
JACK E. OLIVER,
Cornell University
FRANK L. PARKER,
Vanderbilt/Clemson University
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston
THOMAS A. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland
LARRY L. SMARR,
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
STEVEN M. STANLEY,
The Johns Hopkins University
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons
WARREN WASHINGTON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
EDITH BROWN WEISS,
Georgetown University Law Center
National Research Council Staff
STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director
MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE A. SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
ROBIN ALLEN, Senior Project Assistant
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The U.S. Geodynamics Committee wishes to acknowledge the assistance of the many scientists who made this report possible. Tom Casadevall, Steve Malone, Barbara Samora, and Don Swanson published two articles in EOS in 1992 and 1993 that focused the interest of the volcanological community on Mount Rainier1. The committee used the information in these articles to develop this report. At the committee-sponsored workshop in 1992, Russell Blong, John Delaney, John Dvorak, Al Eggers, Peter Frenzen, Gary Machlis, Peter May, Patrick Pringle, Barbara Samora, Dal Stanley, and Ed Wolfe developed the working group reports that the committee used to prepare the present report. The working group reports were collated and edited by Tom Casadevall, Steve Malone, and Don Swanson, who also planned, organized, and ran the workshop on behalf of the committee.
The committee is pleased to acknowledge the University of Washington and U.S. Geological Survey for their support of the workshop. The Committee also thanks the U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey, whose continuing support of the committee made this report possible.
PREFACE
The United Nations designated the 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR; United Nations Resolution 42/169/1987). The objective of the IDNDR is to reduce threats to human life and development from natural hazards through the application of science and technology. The Science and Technical Committee of IDNDR has endorsed the concept of Demonstration Projects-focused scientific studies of specific natural hazards such as volcanoes-to meet this objective.
The designation of Volcano Demonstration Projects for the IDNDR is being coordinated by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI), one of the seven associations comprising the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. To date, IAVCEI has designated 14 Decade Volcanoes, including Mount Rainier, for focused study. These volcanoes represent a variety of eruptive styles and potential hazards. They are generally located in accessible, populated regions and are geologically active but not well studied. Scientific research on these volcanoes is likely to improve the understanding of potential hazards in similar environments worldwide.
Mount Rainier was selected as a Decade Volcano for several reasons. It has an extensive but poorly studied geological and historical record of activity, including lava flows, ash eruptions, avalanches, and mudflows. The volcano thus poses a hazard to surrounding, highly populated regions, particularly the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area. It poses an additional hazard because of its extensive cover of snow and ice, which, if melted rapidly, could produce catastrophic floods and mudflows. Study of the volcano as a Decade Volcano Demonstration Project is likely to improve the understanding of these hazards and, concomitantly, to reduce risks to life and property in the region.
As a first step in developing a Volcano Demonstration Project for Mount Rainier, the U.S. Geodynamics Committee sponsored a workshop to draft a research plan for the volcano. A three-day workshop was held at the University of Washington, Seattle, on September 18-20, 1992, and
involved about 75 earth scientists, experts in natural hazards and mitigation, and representatives of government agencies. The first two days of the workshop were devoted to a review of the geology and geophysical setting of Mount Rainier and surrounding regions and included a field trip to the volcano. On the third day of the workshop, participants formed six working groups to draft a science plan for the volcano. This working group document was edited by the workshop organizers and was used by the U.S. Geodynamics Committee to prepare the present report.
This report presents a science plan for the study of Mount Rainier as a Decade Volcano Demonstration Project and addresses the application of scientific results to the assessment of volcanic hazards and mitigation of risk. Although the science plan focuses primarily on research needed to understand the development and behavior of the volcano and to monitor potential hazards, the committee recognizes that scientific research alone will not advance the goals of the IDNDR program to mitigate risk from volcanic hazards. Accordingly, this report also addresses issues of communication and coordination among geoscientists, social scientists, planners, and responsible authorities, so that the results of this research can be used to support hazard reduction efforts. This link between research and application is an essential element of the IDNDR program.
The present report reflects many of the ideas of the workshop participants and organizers. However, the U.S. Geodynamics Committee accepts all responsibility for the report's content and recommendations.