NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
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COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR FUTURE NAVAL FORCES
DAVID R. HEEBNER,
Science Applications International Corporation (retired),
Study Director
ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR.,
The Baciocco Group, Inc.
ALAN BERMAN,
Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University
NORMAN E. BETAQUE,
Logistics Management Institute
GERALD A. CANN,
Raytheon Company
GEORGE F. CARRIER,
Harvard University
SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN,
Institute for Defense Analyses (retired)
ALEXANDER FLAX,
Potomac, Maryland
WILLIAM J. MORAN,
Redwood City, California
ROBERT J. MURRAY,
Center for Naval Analyses
ROBERT B. OAKLEY,
National Defense University
JOSEPH B. REAGAN,
Saratoga, California
VINCENT VITTO,
Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Navy Liaison Representatives
RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR.,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)
VADM THOMAS B. FARGO,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996)
RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91
CDR DOUGLASS BIESEL,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N812C1
PAUL G. BLATCH,
Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E
Marine Corps Liaison Representative
LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER,
USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command
Consultants
LEE M. HUNT
SIDNEY G. REED, JR.
JAMES G. WILSON
Staff
RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director,
Naval Studies Board
PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer
CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant
NAVAL STUDIES BOARD
DAVID R. HEEBNER,
Science Applications International Corporation (retired),
Chair
GEORGE M. WHITESIDES,
Harvard University,
Vice Chair
ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR.,
The Baciocco Group, Inc.
ALAN BERMAN,
Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University
NORMAN E. BETAQUE,
Logistics Management Institute
NORVAL L. BROOME,
Mitre Corporation
GERALD A. CANN,
Raytheon Company
SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN,
Institute for Defense Analyses (retired),
Special Advisor
ANTHONY J. DeMARIA,
DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc.
JOHN F. EGAN,
Lockheed Martin Corporation
ROBERT HUMMEL,
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
DAVID W. McCALL,
Far Hills, New Jersey
ROBERT J. MURRAY,
Center for Naval Analyses
ROBERT B. OAKLEY,
National Defense University
WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS,
Northstar Associates, Inc.
MARA G. PRENTISS,
Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University
HERBERT RABIN,
University of Maryland
JULIE JCH RYAN,
Booz, Allen and Hamilton
HARRISON SHULL,
Monterey, California
KEITH A. SMITH,
Vienna, Virginia
ROBERT C. SPINDEL,
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
DAVID L. STANFORD,
Science Applications International Corporation
H. GREGORY TORNATORE,
Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University
J. PACE VanDEVENDER,
Prosperity Institute
VINCENT VITTO,
Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BRUCE WALD,
Arlington Education Consultants
Navy Liaison Representatives
RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR.,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)
VADM THOMAS B. FARGO,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996)
RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL,
USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91
RONALD N. KOSTOFF,
Office of Naval Research
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS
ROBERT J. HERMANN,
United Technologies Corporation,
Co-Chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER,
University of Colorado,
Co-Chair
PETER M. BANKS,
Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
LAWRENCE D. BROWN,
University of Pennsylvania
RONALD G. DOUGLAS,
Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES,
University of California at Santa Barbara
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS,
Elf Atochem North America, Inc.
JOHN E. HOPCROFT,
Cornell University
RHONDA J. HUGHES,
Bryn Mawr College
SHIRLEY A. JACKSON,
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
KENNETH H. KELLER,
University of Minnesota
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN,
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARGARET G. KIVELSON,
University of California at Los Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK,
Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER,
University of Pennsylvania
THOMAS A. PRINCE,
California Institute of Technology
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS,
Brookhaven National Laboratory
L.E. SCRIVEN,
University of Minnesota
SHMUEL WINOGRAD,
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
CHARLES A. ZRAKET,
Mitre Corporation (retired)
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
Preface
This study was inspired by the events of the past decade, which saw a vast transformation in the international strategic landscape facing the United States, and in the missions and perspectives of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps as implementing arms of U.S. national security strategy. The terms of reference of the study, developed by VADM Thomas B. Fargo, USN, and RADM Richard A. Riddell, USN, and signed by the Chief of Naval Operations on November 28, 1995, requested that the National Research Council undertake a thorough examination of the impact of advancing technology on the form and capability of the naval forces to the year 2035. Recognizing the anticipated austere budget environment, the terms of reference sought leverage to increase the cost-effectiveness of those forces in that environment, in many technical areas. They specifically asked for an identification of “present and emerging technologies that relate to the full breadth of Navy and Marine Corps mission capabilities,” with specific attention to “(1) information warfare, electronic warfare, and the use of surveillance assets; (2) mine warfare and submarine warfare; (3) Navy and Marine Corps weaponry in the context of effectiveness on target; [and] (4) issues in caring for and maximizing effectiveness of Navy and Marine Corps human resources.” Ten specific technical areas were identified to which attention should be broadly directed. The terms of reference are given in full in Appendix A of this report.
These terms of reference follow from a 1988 study of similar scope, the Navy-21 study,1 that covered much the same ground, but in the earlier context of the Cold War that was still ongoing. At the completion of the Navy-21 study, it
1 |
Naval Studies Board. 1988. Navy-21: Implications of Advancing Technology for Naval Operations in the Twenty-First Century, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
was recognized that the results of a study as broad as that would have to be reviewed periodically to see what had changed in the international security environment, in pertinent domestic circumstances, and in technology, and to renew the projections in the light of those changes. An earlier update of the Navy-21 study,2 and additional Naval Studies Board studies in the areas of advanced sensing,3 mine warfare,4 the combat information network,5 future aircraft carriers,6 command, control, and communications for strike warfare,7 shipboard waste disposal,8 the Navy and Marine Corps in regional conflict,9 and conflict deterrence in the post-Cold War world,10 bore on topics related to naval force development since the publication of the Navy-21 study. All of these studies contributed to the background of the current study, and indeed their results informed the current study in many areas.
To carry out this study, eight technical panels were organized to examine all of the specific technical areas called out in the terms of reference, with some of the 10 topics combined under the cognizance of individual panels as the logic of the topics suggested. The panel structure of the study is shown in Figure P.1. Altogether, some 130 experts in the various technical areas participated in the study as panel members, senior advisors, or participants invited to help the panels with specific tasks. In addition, about 30 Navy and Marine Corps liaison representatives met frequently with the technical panels and with the total study membership during the course of the study. They contributed essential support in providing necessary information and in helping the panel members and leadership understand ongoing Service programs and policies. All of the study participants and Service representatives are listed, with the panels they contributed to, in Appendix B.
2 |
Naval Studies Board. 1993. Navy-21 Update: Implications of Advancing Technology for Naval Operations in the Twenty-First Century, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
3 |
Naval Studies Board. 1985. Sensor Panel Report, Phase II (U), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. (Classified). |
4 |
Naval Studies Board. 1992-1993. Mine Countermeasures Technology, Vol. I-IV, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
5 |
Naval Studies Board. 1991. Combat Networks for Distributed Naval Forces (U), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. (Classified). |
6 |
Naval Studies Board. 1991. Carrier-21: Future Aircraft Carrier Technology, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
7 |
Naval Studies Board. 1994. Naval Communications Architecture, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
8 |
Naval Studies Board. 1996. Shipboard Pollution Control: U.S. Navy Compliance With MARPOL Annex V, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
9 |
Naval Studies Board. 1996. The Navy and Marine Corps in Regional Conflict in the 21st Century, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
10 |
Naval Studies Board. 1997. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
Some 100 panel meetings were held during the course of the study, during which there were briefings by the Services and industry, and working sessions to arrive at the study results. Projections of the international security environment, the relationships of the diverse panel outputs to each other, and the significance of those outputs for the naval forces were brought together and interpreted by a coordination and integration group composed of a chairman, the three senior advisors to the study, and the chairmen of the eight technical panels. This group was constituted as the Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces. The members of the committee met bimonthly to inform each other of progress in the individual panels' efforts and to resolve issues that cut across the responsibilities of more than one panel as they emerged during the panels' work. This overview report is the result of the committee's efforts.
There were three plenary sessions of the entire study membership. The first, in March 1996, was addressed by the Chief of Naval Operations and many high-level officials of the Navy Department, the other Services, the Defense Department, and industry. This served as an organization meeting and conveyed a common, starting information base to the study membership. At the second plenary session, in October 1996, all the members of the study had their first opportunity to review each other 's work, to see how the results of all the panels' work were coming together into an integrated overview, and to feed the results back into their own efforts. The last plenary session, in March 1997, served as a coordination and writing session in which all of the panels' reports and this overview report were completed for final review and checked to ensure that the overview
and the eight panel reports were consistent with each other and mutually supporting. This overview, the first volume in the nine-volume series produced as a result of this study, is, of course, based on the detailed material developed by the individual eight panels. That material is presented in eight separately published volumes whose major topics are outlined in Box P.1.
A periodic “sanity check” on the progress and results of the entire study was provided by the Advisory Council, which met three times during the course of the study: early in the study, to review and advise on the study plans and scope as they were developing within the panels; after the first plenary session, to review and advise on the panels' outputs and on the integrated results as they began to appear; and after the last plenary session, to advise on the final results of the study as they emerged from that session. This final version of the overview report and the final versions of the panel reports reflect the Advisory Council's inputs as well as the comments made in the National Research Council review process.
Throughout this report, the term “naval forces” is used to refer to the Navy and the Marine Corps together. Much of the discussion in the report refers to the two Services. Especially in the post-Cold War world, the two Services are inextricably linked together and must function essentially as a single force over much of their mission spectrum. This is especially true in the difficult and complex transfer of Marine combat power from the sea to the shore against actual or potential opposition, and in the subsequent support of forces ashore by sea-based firepower and logistics. Although several of the important system advances described in this report will clearly apply more to the Navy than to the Marine Corps, the developing Marine Corps concept for Operational Maneuver From the Sea (OMFTS), the associated Marine Corps systems, and the required Navy fire-power and logistic support were examined in some detail in the recent Naval Studies Board report on regional conflict.11 That report examines many system and technology issues that are germane to the subjects discussed in this report. The two reports should be considered companion pieces that, together, probe the future system and technology needs of the two Services that make up the naval forces.
Many more areas of effort and investment than could be treated in this overview report are reviewed and presented in the reports of the study panels, in accordance with their specific areas of concern. Omission of an item from this overview does not imply a judgment on its relative or absolute importance. In many cases, the level of detail precluded detailed treatment here and resulted in the item 's being subsumed in a more general topic area. Also, this first volume in the nine-part series concentrates on the presentation of new or different ideas for technology and systems, and their impact on naval force operations; programs
11 |
Naval Studies Board. 1996. The Navy and Marine Corps in Regional Conflict in the 21st Century, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
under way that need no comment in that respect are noted in context where appropriate and essential to the discussion, but they are not elaborated in this report.
The subject of the use of nuclear weapons by the naval forces was raised during the conduct of this study in connection with the need for destruction of deeply buried targets that conventional weapons may not be able to reach. Such targets might contain key command centers, or they might be storage sites for weapons of mass destruction. Deeply buried command centers can be inactivated for practical use by conventional attacks against exposed support systems (for ventilation, power, communications, and so on). The key problem would be gaining intelligence on these systems to guide the attack. Also, access to storage sites might be cut off by similar means. However, physical destruction of stored agents or warheads in deeply buried sites may require nuclear weapons. In addition to the possible use of existing weapons for such purposes, the very high accuracies that will be achievable in the future may make it possible to attack such targets with much smaller nuclear warheads than are currently available. Nuclear weapons will be available to the military forces for many years to come, even in the presence of arms control agreements extant and to be negotiated in the future, but their use will be governed by national security decisions at the highest levels of government. In case it is desired to design and build a new class of much smaller nuclear warheads than those now available, they could not be tested under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. These issues are extraordinarily complex, with political dimensions far exceeding their technical aspects. They affect all of the armed forces and national policies in many national security-related areas. They must be dealt with at the national level, and they continue to require attention. Although they arose and were discussed during this study, no attempt was made in this report to deal in a substantive way with the broad issues involving nuclear weapons. Some of those issues are discussed in the recent Naval Studies Board study on post-Cold War conflict deterrence. 12
This overview report is unclassified, to permit the greatest possible circulation to the communities concerned with the future of the naval forces and to the interested public. However, the study participants have taken pains to ensure that, to the best of their knowledge, the unclassified results of this study remain consistent with classified research and development efforts being conducted by the Department of the Navy and other agencies that will contribute to future naval force capabilities in important ways.
The results of this nine-volume study show, as requested in the terms of reference, research and development paths by which the naval forces can become as capable and responsive as will be expected of them in the future, within anticipated fiscal constraints. By itself, however, the ability of the forces to respond
12 |
Naval Studies Board. 1997. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. |
BOX P.1 Topics Addressed in Volumes 2 Through 9 Volume 2: Technology
Volume 3: Information in Warfare
Volume 4: Human Resources
Volume 5: Weapons
Volume 6: Platforms
|
Volume 7: Undersea Warfare
Volume 8: Logistics
Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation
|
rapidly and effectively to crises requiring military action will not be a sufficient condition for crisis resolution. The government decision processes leading up to commitment of the forces to a mission could well be a pacing detail that could dissipate the advantages of the naval forces' strength and responsiveness for crisis resolution.
Finally, the Naval Studies Board wishes to express its appreciation to the dozens of Navy, Marine Corps, other Service, Defense Department, and commercial industry representatives who contributed information to this study and who briefed the panels during their meetings. Without these inputs the essential information and perspectives on the future national security environment and developing future technology could not have been developed.