NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. William A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This report represents work supported under provisions of Contract DTMA91-94-G-00003 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Maritime Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation; and Proposal 96-CETS-060-01 from the National Academy of Sciences to the Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Steering Committee.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE ON RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF MARINE SYSTEMS
M.ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL (chair),
NAE, Stanford University, Stanford, California
*JOHN F.AHEARNE (vice chair),
NAE, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina and Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
CYRIL E.ARNEY,
Marathon Oil Company, Houston, Texas
KENNETH E.ARNOLD,
Paragon Engineering Service, Inc., Houston, Texas
*ELIZABETH S.BOUCHARD,
The SEALAW Group, Alexandria, Virginia
*PHILIP M.DIAMOND, Consultant,
Palos Verdes Estates, California
MICHAEL J.DONOHOE,
Corbett & Holt, Washington, D.C.
PAUL S.FISCHBECK,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
B.JOHN GARRICK,
NAE, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California
*MICHAEL J.HERZ,
Marine Environmental Scientist, Alna, Maine
*PHYLLIS J.KAYTEN,
Federal Aviation Administration, Moffett Field, California
*EUGENE M.KELLY,
Amoco Petroleum Products, Chicago, Illinois
*THOMAS M.LESCHINE,
University of Washington, Seattle
CHARLES D.MASSEY,
Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, New Mexico
*ROBERT A.SANTOS,
Hvide Marine, Inc., Fort Lauderdale, Florida
BERNHARD STAHL,
Amoco Corporation, Houston, Texas
Liaisons of Sponsoring Agencies
MARK I.HUTTON,
Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Steering Committee, Cooper Landing, Alaska (until December 1996)
ALEXANDER C.LANDSBURG,
Maritime Administration, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM H.MOORE,
American Bureau of Shipping, New York, New York
DANIEL T.PIPPENGER,
U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.
DOUGLAS L.SLITOR,
Minerals Management Service, Herndon, Virginia
ROBERT L.STOLTENBERG,
Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Steering Committee, Anchorage, Alaska (from December 1996)
FRANK S.WOOD,
U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C.
Marine Board Liaison
E.G. (“SKIP”) WARD,
Shell Offshore, Inc., Houston, Texas
Marine Board Staff
SUSAN GARBINI, Senior Staff Officer (from December 1997)
BEVERLY M.HUEY, Senior Staff Officer (until November 1997)
ROBERT A.SIELSKI, Senior Staff Officer (until September 1997)
THERESA M.FISHER, Administrative Assistant
DONNA A.M.HENRY, Project Assistant (from January 1998)
MARINE BOARD
JAMES M.COLEMAN (chair),
NAE, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
JERRY A.ASPLAND (vice chair),
California Maritime Academy, Vallejo
BERNHARD J.ABRAHAMSSON,
University of Wisconsin, Superior
BROCK B.BERNSTEIN,
EcoAnalysis, Ojai, California
LILLIAN C.BORRONE,
NAE, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
SARAH CHASIS,
Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., New York, New York
CHRYSSOSTOMOS CHRYSSOSTOMIDIS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
BILIANA CICIN-SAIN,
University of Delaware, Newark
BILLY L.EDGE,
Texas A&M University, College Station
JOHN W.FARRINGTON,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
MARTHA GRABOWSKI,
LeMoyne College and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Cazenovia, New York
JAMES D.MURFF,
Exxon Production Research Co., Houston, Texas
M.ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL,
NAE, Stanford University, Stanford, California
DONALD W.PRTTCHARD,
NAE, State University of New York at Stony Brook
STEVEN T.SCALZO,
Foss Maritime Company, Seattle, Washington
MALCOLM L.SPAULDING,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
ROD VULOVIC,
Sea-Land Service, Inc., Charlotte, North Carolina
E.G. “SKIP” WARD,
Shell Offshore, Inc., Houston, Texas
Staff
PETER JOHNSON, Acting Director
SUSAN GARBINI, Senior Staff Officer
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
THERESA M.FISHER, Administrative Assistant
Preface
BACKGROUND AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY
In 1995, shipping companies operating in the Prince William Sound, Alaska, joined with the Regional Citizens Advisory Council, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and the United States Coast Guard to form the Prince William Sound (PWS) Steering Committee, to oversee a study to determine risks associated with shipping oil in the Prince William Sound and the effectiveness and benefits of existing and proposed prevention measures. The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by the PWS Steering Committee to conduct a peer review of the study. The Marine Board’s Committee on Risk Assessment and Management of Marine Systems established a panel in response to the request from the PWS Steering Committee to evaluate the PWS risk assessment study, to prepare findings regarding the appropriateness and usefulness of the methods and approach of the study, and to determine whether the approach could be directly applied elsewhere. Panel members were selected from the larger committee and were chosen for their relevant expertise and to provide a balance of experience and viewpoints. Although the panel took the lead in preparing the following review, the entire committee reviewed and approved the final report and are the authors of record. (Biographies of committee members are provided in Appendix A; members of the PWS panel are denoted by an asterisk in the Committee List in the front of this report.)
The scope of this review is limited to an examination and evaluation of the methods and approach used in the study and their appropriateness for supporting the study’s conclusions and recommendations; it does not analyze whether the results are correct or whether the recommendations are sound. This report is based on a review of the PWS Risk Assessment Study Final Report and supporting technical documents, as well as meetings with and presentations by the PWS Risk Assessment study team.
ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT
Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to general methods of risk assessment and specific background on the PWS risk assessment study, including the outcome expected by the PWS Steering Committee. Chapter 2 discusses the three methods of risk assessment used by the study team: (1) system simulation based on expert judgments to estimate probabilities, (2) statistical analysis based on the marine accident risk calculation system, and (3) fault tree analysis. Because of the lack of sufficient data, the panel undertook an extensive data gathering process. Chapter 3 discusses that process and the implications of using proprietary data in a public study. Chapter 4 discusses the ability of the process and analytical methods to support the conclusions and recommendations of the study team. Chapter 5 summarizes the NRC committee’s conclusions. Appendix A provides biographical information on committee members. Appendix B describes some methods used in risk assessments. Appendix C provides a discussion of human factors considerations. Appendix D is a discussion of the potential for using some of the innovations from the PWS assessment, especially for assessing the risks of marine transportation, for similar studies in other geographical areas.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Jerry A.Aspland, California Maritime Academy
Robert J.Bruelle, Drexel University
Sarah Chasis, Natural Resources Defense Council
Robert A.Frosch, Harvard University
Roger B.Horne, Jr., Failure Analysis Associates
Robert Whitman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Joel D.Sipes, U.S. Coast Guard (retired)
Malcolm L.Spaulding, University of Rhode Island
James D.Wilson, Resources for the Future
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
The principal audiences for this report are: the PWS Steering Committee which asked for this peer review; the study team that conducted the PWS risk assessment study; and others who might be considering conducting similar studies.
The review of the PWS study was originally intended to be part of a larger study of the
methods of risk analysis for marine systems, including platforms and ships. Events beyond the control of the committee prevented the completion of the full study. We hope that the content of this review provides useful information to the reader about probabilistic risk analysis methods for marine systems.
Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Chair
Committee on Risk Assessment and Management of Marine Systems
John F.Ahearne, Chair
Panel on Prince William Sound