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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. DC8C01 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of National Drug Control Policy of the Executive Office of the President. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Committee On Data And Research For Policy On Illegal Drugs
CHARLES F. MANSKI (Chair),
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN,
H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University
RICHARD J. BONNIE,
School of Law, University of Virginia
JEANETTE CONVINGTON,
Department of Sociology, Rutgers University
DENISE C. GOTTFREDSON,
Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, University of Maryland
PHILIP B. HEYMANN,
Center for Criminal Justice, Harvard University
JOEL L. HOROWITZ,
Department of Economics, University of Iowa
ROBERT J. MACCOUN,
Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley
MARK H. MOORE,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
WILLIAM NORDHAUS,
Department of Economics, Yale University
ROBERT H. PORTER,
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
PAUL R. ROSENBAUM,
Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania
JAMES Q. WILSON,
Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles
DARNELL F. HAWKINS (Liaison, Committee on Law and Justice),
African American Studies, University of Illinois at Chicago
YONETTE F. THOMAS, Study Director
JOHN PEPPER, Consultant
KAREN AUTREY, Senior Project Assistant
Committee On Law And Justice
CHARLES WELLFORD (Chair),
Center for Applied Policy Studies and Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland
RUTH DAVIS,
The Pymatuning Group, Inc., Virginia
DARNELL HAWKINS,
Department of African American Studies, University of Illinois at Chicago
PHILIP HEYMANN,
Center for Criminal Justice, Harvard Law School
CANDACE KRUTTSCHNITT,
Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota
MARK LIPSEY,
Department of Psychology and Human Development, Vanderbilt University
COLIN LOFTIN,
School of Criminal Justice, State University of New York at Albany
JOHN MONAHAN,
School of Law, University of Virginia
DANIEL NAGIN,
H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University
JOAN PETERSILIA,
School of Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine
PETER REUTER,
School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland
WESLEY SKOGAN,
Center for Urban Affairs, Northwestern University
CATHY SPATZ WIDOM,
Departments of Criminal Justice and Psychology, State University of New York at Albany
KATE STITH,
School of Law, Yale University
MICHAEL TONRY,
School of Law, University of Minnesota
CAROL PETRIE, Study Director
MELISSA BAMBA, Research Associate
KAREN AUTREY, Senior Project Assistant
Committee On National Statistics 1998-1999
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair),
Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI,
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
JULIE DAVANZO,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
WILLIAM F. EDDY,
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
WILLIAM D. KALSBEEK,
Survey Research Unit, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE,
School of Public Health, University of Michigan
THOMAS A. LOUIS,
Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota
CHARLES F. MANSKI,
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS,
Department of Economics, Yale University
JANET L. NORWOOD,
The Urban Institute, Washington, DC
EDWARD B. PERRIN,
Department of Health Services, University of Washington
PAUL R. ROSENBAUM,
Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO,
Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis
RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE,
Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MIRON L. STRAF, Director
ANDREW A. WHITE, Deputy Director
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Preface
In October of 1997 the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) of the Executive Office of the President requested the National Research Council (NRC) to convene a committee to study the data and research needed for national policy on illegal drugs. The Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs, formed in early 1998 under the aegis of the NRC's Committee on Law and Justice and Committee on National Statistics, was given the charge to:
1. |
assess existing data sources and recent research studies that support policy analysis; |
2. |
identify new data and research that may enable the development of more effective means of evaluating the consequences of alternative drug control policies; and |
3. |
explore ways to integrate theory and findings from diverse disciplines to increase understanding of drug abuse and the operation of drug markets. |
The committee began its work in spring 1998 and will, over a 2 1/2-year period, conduct a broad study of data and research to inform drug control policy.
The charge to the committee gives it substantial discretion on the conduct of the study. ONDCP did, however, make one specific request: that the committee, early in its work, assess two recent cost-effectiveness studies on cocaine control policy. The two studies—by RAND and the
Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)—have starkly different methodologies and conclusions and have drawn considerable attention. In connection with its work, the committee hosted a public Workshop on Cost-Effectiveness Studies in June 1998. At the workshop, authors of the two studies presented their work, responded to questions, and offered their general perspectives.
This report presents the committee's review and assessment of the RAND and IDA studies. The immediate purpose of the report is to evaluate the degree to which these two studies effectively inform cocaine control policy. In the longer term, the report sets a context for the committee's future deliberations about the data and research needed to support analysis and development of drug control policy.
Many people made generous contributions to the work of the committee. We thank the authors and presenters of the two reports, Susan Everingham, Jonathan Caulkins, Barry Crane, and A. Rex Rivolo, who attended the Workshop on Cost-Effectiveness Studies, answered our many questions, and provided background material. Also, we thank Christopher Sims of the Yale University Department of Economics, Jeffrey Grogger and Mark Kleiman of the University of California, Los Angeles, School of Public Policy and Social Research, Robert Moffit of the Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics, and John Geweke of the University of Minnesota Department of Economics for their theoretical and methodological insights.
We also thank Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, for her ever-important editorial support and Karen Autrey, our senior project assistant, for her organizational assistance and logistical support.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: David S. Cordray, Institute for Public Policy Studies, Vanderbilt University; Stephen Fienberg, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; Arthur S. Goldberger, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin; Joel B. Greenhouse, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; Herbert Kleber, National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse, Columbia University; Lester B. Lave,
Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University; Philip R. Lee, Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco; Colin Loftin, School of Criminal Justice, State University of New York at Albany; Henry W. Riecken, Professor of Behavioral Sciences, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine (emeritus); and Thomas C. Schelling, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland.
Although the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Finally, as we begin the major phase of work, on the broad questions of illegal drug policies, we are happy to welcome two new members: James C. Anthony, at the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, School of Medicine, and Charles O'Brien, at the Treatment Research Center, University of Pennsylvania. Their expertise are valuable additions for the committee's continuing work.
CHARLES F. MANSKI, CHAIR
YONETTE F. THOMAS, STUDY DIRECTOR
COMMITTEE ON DATA AND RESEARCH FOR POLICY ON ILLEGAL DRUGS