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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
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Inland Navigation System Planning: The Upper Mississippi River-Illinois Waterway is available from the
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER-ILLINOIS WATERWAY NAVIGATION SYSTEM FEASIBILITY STUDY
LESTER B. LAVE, Chair,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
PHILLIP BAUMEL,
Iowa State University, Ames
KENNETH D. BOYER,
Michigan State University, Ann Arbor
MICHAEL S. BRONZINI,
George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
KENNETH L. CASAVANT,
Washington State University, Pullman
BONNIE G. COLBY,
University of Arizona, Tucson
JONATHAN P. DEASON,
George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
JOSÉ A. GÓMEZ-IBÁNEZ,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
DELON HAMPTON,
Delon Hampton & Associates, Chartered, Washington, D.C.
EDWIN E. HERRICKS,
University of Illinois, Urbana
DAVID H. MOREAU,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
NRC Staff
JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Study Director,
Water Science and Technology Board
ANITA A. HALL, Senior Project Assistant,
Water Science and Technology Board
JOSEPH MORRIS, Senior Staff Officer,
Transportation Research Board
SUSAN GARBINI, Senior Staff Officer,
Transportation Research Board
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOBY BOARD
HENRY J. VAUX, Jr., Chair,
Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of California, Oakland
RICHARD G. LUTHY, Vice Chair,
Stanford University, California
RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING,
GREGORY B. BAECHER,
University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN BRISCOE,
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
STEVEN P. GLOSS,
University of Wyoming, Laramie
WILLIAM A. JURY,
University of California, Riverside
GARY S. LOGSDON,
Black & Veatch, Cincinnati, Ohio
DIANE M. MCKNIGHT,
University of Colorado, Boulder
JOHN W. MORRIS,
J.W. Morris Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
PHILIP A. PALMER (Retired),
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Wilmington, Delaware
REBECCA T. PARKIN,
George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
RUTHERFORD H. PLATT,
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
JOAN B. ROSE,
University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
JERALD L. SCHNOOR,
University of Iowa, Iowa City
R. RHODES TRUSSELL,
Montgomery Watson, Pasadena, California
Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer
JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Senior Staff Officer
MARK C. GIBSON, Staff Officer
WILLIAM S. LOGAN, Staff Officer
M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate
PATRICIA A. JONES, Staff Associate
ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant
ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Senior Project Assistant
ANIKE L. JOHNSON, Project Assistant
NORA BRANDON, Project Assistant
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
Chairman: Martin Wachs, Director,
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley
Vice Chairman: John M. Samuels, Senior Vice President—Operations Planning and Support (Operations Division),
Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia
Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr.,
Transportation Research Board
Thomas F. Barry, Jr., Secretary of Transportation,
Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee
Jack E. Buffington, Associate Director and Research Professor,
Mack-Blackwell National Rural Transportation Study Center, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Sarah C. Campbell, President,
TransManagement, Inc., Washington, D.C.
Anne P. Canby, Secretary of Transportation,
Delaware Department of Transportation, Dover
E. Dean Carlson, Secretary of Transportation,
Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka
Joanne F. Casey, President,
Intermodal Association of North America, Greenbelt, Maryland
John L. Craig, Director,
Nebraska Department of Roads, Lincoln
Robert A. Frosch, Senior Research Fellow,
Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs. John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Gorman Gilbert, Director,
Oklahoma Transportation Center, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater
Genevieve Giuliano, Professor,
School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
Lester A. Hoel, L.A. Lacy Distinguished Professor,
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
H. Thomas Kornegay, Executive Director,
Port of Houston Authority, Houston, Texas
Thomas F. Larwin, General Manager,
San Diego Metropolitan Transit Development Board, San Diego, California
Bradley L. Mallory, Secretary of Transportation,
Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, Harrisburg
Jeffrey R. Moreland, Senior Vice President—Law and Chief of Staff,
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation, Fort Worth, Texas
Sid Morrison, Secretary of Transportation,
Washington State Department of Transportation. Olympia
John P. Poorman, Staff Director,
Capital District Transportation Committee, Albany, New York
Wayne Shackelford, Senior Vice President,
Gresham Smith & Partners, Alpharetta, Georgia (Past Chairman, 1999)
Michael S. Townes, Executive Director,
Transportation District Commission of Hampton Roads, Hampton, Virginia
Thomas R. Warne, Executive Director,
Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City
Arnold F. Wellman, Jr., Vice President,
Corporate Public Affairs, United Parcel Service, Washington, D.C.
James A. Wilding, President and CEO,
Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Alexandria, Virginia
M. Gordon Wolman, Professor of Geography and Environmental Engineering,
The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
David N. Wormley, Dean of Engineering,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park (Past Chairman, 1997)
Preface
In its study of the prospects for extending several locks on the Upper Mississippi River-Illinois Waterway system, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers found itself in the middle of a clash of powerful forces and changing values. The traditional argument has been that the federal government must do everything it can to open the continent to people, promote commerce, and aid exporters. This view continues to be supported by some members of Congress, farmers and tow companies from the areas surrounding these rivers, as well as the Port of New Orleans and exporters. Holders of this view support improvements to navigation system infrastructure on the UMR–IWW in order to carry grain to New Orleans for export. They contend that if tows are now twice as long as in the past, the U.S. should extend the locks to relieve congestion and improve the competitiveness of grain farmers. Complicating this view is a rapidly changing world in which the U.S. has gone from a position of feeding much of the world after World War II to a position of competing, not always successfully, against low cost grain exports from South America and other places. The market for American grain over the next five years is highly uncertain. The market over the next century is unknowable.
Meanwhile, those promoting environmental values now argue that improving navigation must not needlessly damage recreation and river ecology. These same interests also seek reversal of some of the profound changes in river ecology brought about by transforming a free flowing river into a series of pools. Most Americans gave little attention to environmental pollution in 1960; certainly few knew or cared about changes in river ecology. Many environmental views that were extreme in 1970 have become mainstream views in 2001.
In this setting, the Corps was charged with analyzing the benefits and costs of a $1 billion improvement in transportation infrastructure, the extensions of several locks on the UMR–IWW. The benefits arise from the demand for U.S. grain in other nations. Forecasting the demand for even the next few years is difficult. Costs include construction and operations. These costs could be increased greatly by insisting that new infrastructure changes begin to reverse the changes in river ecology caused by the past construction of the locks and dams and the passage of tows. Indeed, the benefit of the infrastructure change would be reduced to zero at the time that the public demanded that the dams be breached to allow a free flowing river.
While the mission of this committee never made us the focus of the contending parties, our two meetings in which we asked for public input made the controversy abundantly clear to us. At a narrow, technical level, we pored over the Corps' analyses of the price sensitivity of the current and future demand for barge shipment, the effects of additional traffic on congestion and thus on shipping costs, and the analysis of the environmental effects of construction and the passage of tows. The complexity of these tasks would test any government agency. Accomplishing them in the midst of heated controversy makes them all the more difficult.
No member of the committee is "on the line" in the same way that Corps analysts are. Most of us have the luxury of examining issues at length and without contending parties scrutinizing each step. Thus, we appreciate the difficulty of the Corps' task. Nonetheless, we found that substantial improvements can be made in the Corps' analysis that will help inform decision-makers about the implications of this and other waterway projects. We urge Congress, the Department of Defense, and the Corps to give careful attention to improving the analyses so that society can be better informed about the implications of alternative courses of action.
The committee's study was conducted with appreciation of the analytical and political challenges facing the Corps. We greatly appreciate the Corps of Engineers ' cooperation and assistance in this study and would especially like to thank Phillip Anderson, Ken Barr, Jim Johnson, Gary Loss, Denny Lundberg, Rich Manguno, Dave Tipple, and Hans van Winkle. We also thank Joseph Westphal and James Smyth from the office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works for their cooperation and advice. Thanks are also due to Chris Brescia of MARC 2000 (St. Louis), George Dusenberry of the Northeast-Midwest Center (Washington, D.C.), Jon Duyvejonck of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Rock Island, Illinois), Ken Lubinski of the U.S. Geological Survey (LaCrosse, Wisconsin), and Tim Searchinger of Environmental Defense (Washington, D.C.), all of whom spoke with our committee. We are also grateful to the many citizens and interest group representatives who spoke with and educated our committee. We also thank the Corps of Engineers' staff in the St. Louis district office for hosting an informative and enjoyable mid-August field trip to locks and dams 25 and 26. The committee could not have completed its task without the able assistance of Steve Parker, Steve Godwin, Joe Morris, Susan Garbini, and Anita Hall. We are especially indented to Jeffrey Jacobs who served as our chief staff officer and helped us craft the language that said what we wanted to say.
Lester B. Lave
Chairman
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their reviews of this report:
Gregory B. Baecher, University of Maryland
John Cairns, Jr., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Jeanne N. Clarke, University of Arizona
Stephen W. Fuller, Texas A&M University
Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., International Joint Commission
John R. Meyer, Harvard University, Emeritus
Kenneth A. Small, University of California, Irvine
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Debra Knopman, Progressive Policy Institute, appointed by Division on Earth and Life Studies and Sherwin Rosen, The University of Chicago, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.