Estimating The Public Health Benefits Of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations
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Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Cooperative Agreement No. X-82885301 between the National Academy of Sciences and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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COMMITTEE ON ESTIMATING THE HEALTH-RISK-REDUCTION BENEFITS OF PROPOSED AIR POLLUTION REGULATIONS
Members
JOHN C. BAILAR, III (Chair), (emeritus)
University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
HUGH ROSS ANDERSON,
University of London, London, England
MAUREEN L. CROPPER,
University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN S. EVANS,
Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
DALE B. HATTIS,
Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
ROGENE F. HENDERSON,
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico
PATRICK L. KINNEY,
Columbia University, New York, New York
NINO KÜNZLI,
University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; as of September 2002, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
BART D. OSTRO,
California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland
CHARLES POOLE,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
PETER A. VALBERG,
Gradient Corporation, Cambridge, Massachusetts
SCOTT L. ZEGER,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
Staff
ELLEN K. MANTUS, Project Director
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Senior Program Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Editor
MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Research Assistant
JENNIFER E. SAUNDERS, Research Assistant
LUCY V. FUSCO, Senior Project Assistant
Sponsor
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY1
Members
GORDON ORIANS (Chair),
University of Washington, Seattle
JOHN DOULL (Vice Chair),
University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City
DAVID ALLEN,
University of Texas, Austin
THOMAS BURKE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
JUDITH C. CHOW,
Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD,
Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California
WILLIAM H. GLAZE,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
SHERRI W. GOODMAN,
Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia
DANIEL S. GREENBAUM,
Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROGENE HENDERSON,
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico
CAROL HENRY,
American Chemistry Council, Arlington, Virginia
ROBERT HUGGETT,
Michigan State University, East Lansing
BARRY L. JOHNSON
Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
JAMES H. JOHNSON,
Howard University, Washington, D.C.
JAMES A. MACMAHON,
Utah State University, Logan
PATRICK V. O’BRIEN,
Chevron Research and Technology, Richmond, California
DOROTHY E. PATTON,
International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, D.C.
ANN POWERS,
Pace University School of Law, White Plains, New York
LOUISE M. RYAN,
Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
JONATHAN M. SAMET,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
KIRK SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
LISA SPEER,
Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York
G. DAVID TILMAN,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul
LAUREN A. ZEISE,
California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland
Senior Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer
SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Staff Officer
SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Staff Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor
OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002)
Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001)
Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001)
Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001)
A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001)
Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000)
Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research-Management and Peer-Review Practices (2000)
Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000)
Copper in Drinking Water (2000)
Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000)
Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999)
Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999)
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (3 reports, 1998-2001)
Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999)
Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999)
Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998)
The National Research Council’s Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997)
Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996)
Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996)
Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995)
Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995)
Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989-1995)
Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports, 1994-1995)
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993)
Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993)
Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992)
Science and the National Parks (1992)
Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I-IV (1991-1993)
Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991)
Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991)
Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990)
Copies of these reports may be ordered from The National Academies Press
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Preface
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that thousands of premature deaths and numerous cases of illness, such as chronic bronchitis and asthma attacks, could be prevented by reducing exposure to air pollution. These estimates are derived from health benefits analyses, which attempt to quantify changes in the expected cases of mortality and illness that are likely to result from proposed regulations. These estimates are often controversial and the methods used to produce them are often questioned. Because of the importance of these estimates in decision-making, the U.S. Senate directed EPA to request that the National Research Council (NRC) evaluate methods used to derive the health benefits estimates and make recommendations on best practices for these types of analyses.
In this report, the NRC’s Committee on Estimating the Health-Risk-Reduction Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations reviews recent EPA analyses and provides recommendations for improvement of the methods used. Specifically, the committee addressed issues concerned with the structure of the analysis, such as the regulatory options to evaluate, the time frame to use, and the assumptions to make about conditions with and without the regulation. The committee also considered issues regarding the exposure assessment, the selection of health outcomes and the concentration-response function, the analysis of uncertainty, and the presentation of the methods and results.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise according to the procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Aaron J. Cohen, Health Effects Institute, Boston, Massachusetts; Douglas J. Crawford-Brown, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Edmund A.C. Crouch, Cambridge Environmental Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts; Daniel Krewski, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario; Alan J. Krupnick, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC; Michal Krzyzanowski, European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Germany; Jonathan I. Levy, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts; Thomas A. Louis, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland; Robert L. Maynard, U.K. Department of Health, London; Roger O. McClellan (emeritus), Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology, Albuquerque, New Mexico; Michael H. Scheible, Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California; George D. Thurston, New York University School of Medicine, Tuxedo, New York.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Donald R. Mattison, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Bethesda, Maryland; and Maureen M. Henderson, (emeritus) University of Washington, Seattle, Washington. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was conducted according to institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee gratefully acknowledges the following individuals for making presentations to the committee: Robert Brenner and Bryan Hubbell, EPA; Andrew Wheeler, U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Clean Air, Wetlands, Private Property, and Nuclear Safety; Robert O’Keefe, Health
Effects Institute; John Graham, Office of Management and Budget; and Alan Krupnick, Resources for the Future. In addition, the committee especially thanks Armistead Russell, Georgia Institute of Technology, who provided background information and further analysis on air-quality modeling to the committee.
The committee is also grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in preparing this report. Staff members who contributed to this effort are Ellen Mantus, project director; Roberta Wedge, program director for risk analysis; Eileen Abt, program officer; Ruth E. Crossgrove, editor, Mirsada Karalic-Loncarevic, research assistant; Jennifer Saunders, research assistant; and Lucy Fusco, senior project assistant.
I would especially like to thank all the members of the committee for their efforts throughout the development of this report.
John C. Bailar, III, Chair
Committee on Estimating the Health-Risk-Reduction Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations