NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study by the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design was conducted under grant no. NSF/DMI-9908549 from the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE ON THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR DECISION MAKING IN ENGINEERING DESIGN
ROBERT J.EAGAN (chair),
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
BETH E.ALLEN,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
CORBETT D.CAUDILL,
GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati, Ohio
RONALD A.HOWARD,
Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
J.STUART HUNTER,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
CHRISTOPHER L.MAGEE,
Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan
SIMON OSTRACH,
Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
WILLIAM B.ROUSE,
Enterprise Support Systems, Norcross, Georgia
Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Staff
CUNG VU, study director (until December 1, 2000)
ARUL MOZHI, study director (from December 1, 2000)
TONI MARECHAUX, board director
TERI THOROWGOOD, research associate
JUDY ESTEP, senior project assistant
Government Liaison
GEORGE HAZELRIGG,
National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia
BOARD ON MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING DESIGN
JOSEPH G.WIRTH (chair),
Raychem Corporation (retired), Mt. Shasta, California
F.PETER BOER,
Tiger Scientific, Inc., Boynton Beach, Florida
JOHN G.BOLLINGER,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
HARRY E.COOK,
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
PAMELA A.DREW,
The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington
ROBERT EAGAN,
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
EDITH M.FLANIGEN,
UOP Corporation (retired), White Plains, New York
JOHN W.GILLESPIE, JR.,
University of Delaware, Newark
JAMIE C.HSU,
General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan
RICHARD L.KEGG,
Milacron, Inc. (retired), Cincinnati, Ohio
JAY LEE,
United Technologies Research Center, East Hartford, Connecticut
JAMES MATTICE,
Universal Technology Corporation, Dayton, Ohio
CAROLYN W.MEYERS,
North Carolina A&T University, Greensboro
JOE H.MIZE,
Oklahoma State University (retired), Stillwater
FRIEDRICH B.PRINZ,
Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
JAMES B.RICE, JR.,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DALIBOR F.VRSALOVIC,
Intel Corporation, Santa Clara, California
JOEL SAMUEL YUDKEN,
AFL-CIO, Washington, D.C.
TONI MARECHAUX, director
PREFACE
Design is a process by which human intellect, creativity, and passion are translated into useful artifacts. The practice of engineering design involves not only pure and applied sciences, behavioral and social sciences, and economics but also many aspects of business and law. A designer must work effectively with a team composed of members of different disciplines and make tens or even hundreds of decisions for simple products and thousands of decisions for complex products. Tools to aid designers extend from design guides and rules of thumb that capture experience to synthetic environments that allow the designer to fly through virtual models.
This study focuses on the development and use of tools and approaches for decision making in engineering design. It also examines the preparation that undergraduate students receive for applying decision analysis tools.
The Committee on Theoretical Foundations for Decision Making in Engineering Design reviewed some of the relevant literature and consulted experts to seek clarification as needed. In assessing commonly used design methodologies the committee also heard presentations about design engineering practices for a complex product (jet engine); management decisions for a commercial product (Chevrolet Corvette); and methods and tools used in risk analysis and design of a one-of-a-kind product (a space exploration vehicle).
The committee, though small, brought wide-ranging expertise in economics, decision theory, academic research, and industrial practice. This diversity was valuable in deliberations and instructive in the difficulties of communicating across disciplinary areas, especially in the study of decision analysis for engineering design.
Robert J.Eagan, chair
Committee on Theoretical Foundations for Decision Making in Engineering Design
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Committee on Theoretical Foundations for Decision Making in Engineering Design would like to thank the following individuals for their presentations: Wm A.Wulf, National Academy of Engineering; Steve Barrager, independent consultant; David Halstead, GE Aircraft Engines; John Taylor, NASA; and Greg Wyss, Sandia National Laboratories. In addition, the committee acknowledges Karen Padilla, Sandia National Laboratories, for typing several editions of the manuscript.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets the institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Ernest R.Blood, Caterpillar Inc.; Clive L.Dym, Harvey Mudd College; Jay Lee, University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee; Steven C. Lu, University of Southern California; Farrok Mistree, Georgia Institute of Technology; and David J. Vander Veen, General Motors.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the report was overseen by George Dieter, University of Maryland, appointed by the Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
FIGURES AND TABLES
FIGURES
2–1 |
Decision process in the context of business and Environment |
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2–2 |
Decisions framed in relevant context |
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3–1 |
The quality of a decision |
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3–2 |
The problem space for characterization and decision-making |
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3–3 |
The decision hierarchy |
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3–4 |
The decision process |
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3–5 |
Decision diagram |
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3–6 |
Decision diagram for design of a dual-sport motorcycle |
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3–7 |
Tornado diagram |
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3–8 |
The decision quality spider |
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4–1 |
The House of Quality |
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4–2 |
A cascade of evaluation matrices |
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4–3 |
General format of the decision matrix |
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4–4 |
Decision matrix for access door attachment |
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4–5 |
Decision making in the context of variation |
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4–6 |
Scope of artificial intelligence in design |